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Quote from: IDM on February 07, 2022, 10:21:46 amPast stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking. Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.
Past stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.
8 players arriving in the window represents a huge change to our squad. Therefore a significant change in performances and results wouldn’t be miraculous, nor particularly improbable.The last stats were mainly generated by our squad pre window, so that’s another huge spanner in the works.Effort, cohesion and competitiveness are what will give us realistic hope of surviving the drop.
Quote from: GazLaz on February 07, 2022, 11:14:44 amQuote from: IDM on February 07, 2022, 10:21:46 amPast stats don’t prove the outcome of future games.Stats don’t account for luck, missed official’s calls, opponents having an off day, bad weather etc etc etc.All that matters is we score at least one more than our opponent, more often than not, and out a shift in as much as possible.It’s not about proving anything. It’s about applying a probability for an accurate to take place. That can be done pretty accurately. We’ve got about a 5% chance of staying up. It’s as simple as that. Maybe 1% inaccuracy either way, but that the maximum amount of tolerance we are talking. Occurrences that have a fairly low chance of happening happen all the time, it won’t be a miracle if we stay up, just very unlikely.I get this but only probability says that we have a 5% chance of staying up. When the actual real chance is unknown, because many variables can happen between now and the end of the season.
i watched the sky highlights for was it 2 and a half minutes - don't watch the efl prog haven't timewhat i saw was a knackered No.19 (as donny ? pointed out) Seaman who ran as if his feet were "stuck to the floor" a very classy Norwich - spacially aware player with good ball control and as i said vision who produced a premiership quality ball - to a center forward who as someone else said "took the ball in his stride" and scored a premiership quality goal. a Jamie Vardy style goal.That gentle over the top ball is always a killer if a team has the right tool in the " toolkit" and this tool thankfully is not hiredso long as Griffiths stays fit we should be OK
After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
What a time to go to Pompey. They are the worst performing side regarding last 6 played.averaging just 0.33 ppg.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2022, 01:50:11 pmAfter 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why, Look where they were after 25/26 games.
Quote from: dickos1 on February 07, 2022, 02:51:42 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2022, 01:50:11 pmAfter 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.Burton won 6 on the bounce that’s why, Look where they were after 25/26 games. After 25 matches they were 5 points off safety.What you're saying is that because they had a run of form that most sides only get once every few years, there's no reason why we couldn't. I say that MIGHT happen but it's highly unlikely. As far as I can see, the last time we won 6 league games on the bounce was Autumn 2003.Which kind of shows why Burton's escape last year is not a good example.1) They were never as far behind safety as we are.2) They had more time left when they hit form.3) The form they hit has only been matched by us once in 2 decades. I'd love us to pull a miracle out of the bag, but it is very unlikely.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2022, 01:50:11 pmAfter 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
I think the bottom of the table will look like this..55pts Lincoln54pts Cambridge52pts Morecambe 52pts Fleetwood ——————————48pts Wimbledon 38pts Doncaster37pts Gills36pts CreweI’m surprised how many points I have Morecambe finishing on as I’ve always been pretty certain they would get relegated.