Elections

[BillyStubbsTears]

It was a steady result for Labour. They were competing in wards that they'd generally done very well in last time they were fought, so to have won lots of wards would have been exceptional.

Not exceptionally good for Labour. But certainly not particularly bad.

[drfchound]

The results in so far, in terms of vote share, more or less match what the polls are telling us.

Not good enough for the Tories to get Johnson out of trouble. Not bad enough to be terminal.

Not good for Labour to think they are cruising. Not bad enough to prompt anyone to challenge Starmer.

Johnson may well have survived. Big question now is, do the Met have any more Partygate fines?

Well, the other big question is whether the Durham police will have “the other party gate” investigation.

[bpoolrover]

Poor results for the tories tonight and boris should go( should have gone a while back) Labour faired ok but need much better in the long term

[drfchound]

Some news outlets are saying it was a classic mid term election with protest votes going away from their usual preferred Party.
Typically those votes, in the main, went to the Lib Dems.

[SydneyRover]

the tory party appears to be in a bind as it changes itself into the populist johnson party to maintain the red wall the traditional tories don't like what they see and if johnson manages to level anything up they won't like that either.

[River Don]

Some news outlets are saying it was a classic mid term election with protest votes going away from their usual preferred Party.
Typically those votes, in the main, went to the Lib Dems.

Are those news outlets the rightwing press?

It's probably partly true but I think the key issue in this election wasn't partygate. If it was solely about partygate then it would have been a classic midterm.

I think the real issue is the cost of living. Unless the Tories get a grip on this, then I think the dissatisfaction will be lasting. The energy price rise in October is going to be central. If they can't do anything about horrendous bills going into the winter, then I think there will be a mood for change.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Senior Tories were doing the media rounds last week saying 350 lost wards in the Council elections would be a very bad outcome.

They actually lost 500.

There's no dressing this up. It's a historically awful performance.

And as you say RD, and as I've been saying for a year, things aren't going to get any better for the Tories in the foreseeable future. There's nothing but hard times and bad news for a good long while.

[Branton Red]

The Tories have lost a quarter of their council seats which were being voted on. That is pretty disastrous. The media however are reporting that this is not a terrible enough performance to see Johnson gone. I'm not so sure.

Combine these results with the Sue Gray report, potentially more fines and a bad showing in a by-election or two and I'm still hopeful we'll see him out of office in the not too distant future.

Whilst Labour did well in London, Wales and to a degree Scotland their results in the rest of England are extremely poor in the face of the loss of Tory support. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents did much better capitalising on Tory woes.

It shows Labour still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust and support of people in England outside the metropolitan areas esp the capital.

[SydneyRover]

''Sinn Fein is on course to become the largest party in Northern Ireland for the first time as its main unionist rival pays the price for political divisions over Brexit.

The Democratic Unionist Party lost support to both the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV) and the cross-community Alliance Party in an election overshadowed by the future of the Northern Ireland protocol.

If confirmed, the assembly results mean that Sinn Fein will be able to nominate Michelle O’Neill, its leader, as the first Republican first minister since the power-sharing executive was formed in 1998. The DUP is expected to come second in the poll with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the party’s leader, in line to become deputy first minister.''

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/northern-ireland-elections-sinn-fein-on-course-for-historic-win-km8cx308l

I'll bet the DUP wasn't thinking of this when they hooked up with johnson.

[BillyStubbsTears]

To think Sinn Fein would ever be the biggest party in NI. When this is how they were treated 30 years back.

https://youtu.be/w6UhXivPyw4

[drfchound]

Some news outlets are saying it was a classic mid term election with protest votes going away from their usual preferred Party.
Typically those votes, in the main, went to the Lib Dems.

Are those news outlets the rightwing press?

It's probably partly true but I think the key issue in this election wasn't partygate. If it was solely about partygate then it would have been a classic midterm.

I think the real issue is the cost of living. Unless the Tories get a grip on this, then I think the dissatisfaction will be lasting. The energy price rise in October is going to be central. If they can't do anything about horrendous bills going into the winter, then I think there will be a mood for change.

No RD, I saw two different news reports on different tv channels who reported similar information.
Branton Red also backs it up a couple of posts away from here.

[wilts rover]

The Tories have lost a quarter of their council seats which were being voted on. That is pretty disastrous. The media however are reporting that this is not a terrible enough performance to see Johnson gone. I'm not so sure.

Combine these results with the Sue Gray report, potentially more fines and a bad showing in a by-election or two and I'm still hopeful we'll see him out of office in the not too distant future.

Whilst Labour did well in London, Wales and to a degree Scotland their results in the rest of England are extremely poor in the face of the loss of Tory support. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents did much better capitalising on Tory woes.

It shows Labour still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust and support of people in England outside the metropolitan areas esp the capital.

Fully agreed Branton. Which should worry the right-whingers and Brexiteers on here.

For the Tories to stay in power they have to win a majority in the next GE. There are no parties who will form a coalition with them.

For Labour to form the next govenment without a majority they will have to govern with either/all Greens, Lib Dems, SNP. All of whom are pro-rejoing Europe (unlike Starmer) and all of which have far more left-wing policies than Starmer's Labour.

Thus a future coalition government will be far more radical and left-wing than a Starmer led Labour one. Happy days.

[drfchound]

The Tories have lost a quarter of their council seats which were being voted on. That is pretty disastrous. The media however are reporting that this is not a terrible enough performance to see Johnson gone. I'm not so sure.

Combine these results with the Sue Gray report, potentially more fines and a bad showing in a by-election or two and I'm still hopeful we'll see him out of office in the not too distant future.

Whilst Labour did well in London, Wales and to a degree Scotland their results in the rest of England are extremely poor in the face of the loss of Tory support. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents did much better capitalising on Tory woes.

It shows Labour still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust and support of people in England outside the metropolitan areas esp the capital.

Fully agreed Branton. Which should worry the right-whingers and Brexiteers on here.

For the Tories to stay in power they have to win a majority in the next GE. There are no parties who will form a coalition with them.

For Labour to form the next govenment without a majority they will have to govern with either/all Greens, Lib Dems, SNP. All of whom are pro-rejoing Europe (unlike Starmer) and all of which have far more left-wing policies than Starmer's Labour.

Thus a future coalition government will be far more radical and left-wing than a Starmer led Labour one. Happy days.

Wilts, who would be the PM in such a three or four Party coalition if Starmer led the Labour Party into the election.

[wilts rover]

The Tories have lost a quarter of their council seats which were being voted on. That is pretty disastrous. The media however are reporting that this is not a terrible enough performance to see Johnson gone. I'm not so sure.

Combine these results with the Sue Gray report, potentially more fines and a bad showing in a by-election or two and I'm still hopeful we'll see him out of office in the not too distant future.

Whilst Labour did well in London, Wales and to a degree Scotland their results in the rest of England are extremely poor in the face of the loss of Tory support. The Lib Dems, Greens and Independents did much better capitalising on Tory woes.

It shows Labour still have a lot of work to do to regain the trust and support of people in England outside the metropolitan areas esp the capital.

Fully agreed Branton. Which should worry the right-whingers and Brexiteers on here.

For the Tories to stay in power they have to win a majority in the next GE. There are no parties who will form a coalition with them.

For Labour to form the next govenment without a majority they will have to govern with either/all Greens, Lib Dems, SNP. All of whom are pro-rejoing Europe (unlike Starmer) and all of which have far more left-wing policies than Starmer's Labour.

Thus a future coalition government will be far more radical and left-wing than a Starmer led Labour one. Happy days.

Wilts, who would be the PM in such a three or four Party coalition if Starmer led the Labour Party into the election.

Whoever led the party with the largest number of seats. So almost certainly Starmer (or whoever is the leader of the LP at that time).

[selby]

  The Reform Party will stand in the next election and could cause a Brexit moment and an alliance with the Tories, that would be fun.

[BillyStubbsTears]

  The Reform Party will stand in the next election and could cause a Brexit moment and an alliance with the Tories, that would be fun.

I'm sure the mainstream parties are shutting themselves at the thought.

[Branton Red]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think a hung Parliament us a very likely outcome next time round.

[Branton Red]

To achieve that (or better) Labour need to regain votes in non-metropolitan England. They struggled to make any headway in such areas on Thursday in spite of Tory problems re the issues with Johnson.

To do this they will need to reject the Lib Dems rejoin the Single Market policy just unveiled (sorry Wilts) or this will give a perfect line of attack for the Tories playing on left-leaning Leave voters lack of trust in Labour and Stamer on Europe.

[wilts rover]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

[wilts rover]

To achieve that (or better) Labour need to regain votes in non-metropolitan England. They struggled to make any headway in such areas on Thursday in spite of Tory problems re the issues with Johnson.

To do this they will need to reject the Lib Dems rejoin the Single Market policy just unveiled (sorry Wilts) or this will give a perfect line of attack for the Tories playing on left-leaning Leave voters lack of trust in Labour and Stamer on Europe.

No - but the Lib Dems did. Its the voters that have rejected the Tories because they are seen as incompetent. There aren't many left-leaning votors in Somerset, Montgomeryshire or Cumbria to fall back on.

[drfchound]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

Would people who voted for Brexit vote for Labour if they knew that wilts.
What do you reckon.
It potentially rules out half of the country voting for them.

[Branton Red]

Exactly Hound.

That's why Labour must reject any notion, in coalition or not, of rejoining the EU/Single Market to have any chance of getting the votes to be in power.

Failure to do so would be akin to their disastrous 2019 Europe policy.

Here's hoping Starmer/the people at Labour HQ recognise this and don't let their ideological love of Europe overpower sensible, logical reasoning of democratic reality.

[wilts rover]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

Would people who voted for Brexit vote for Labour if they knew that wilts.
What do you reckon.
It potentially rules out half of the country voting for them.

Not really. There are very few seats where the Lib Dems fight Labour - so a Lib Dem resurgence will take seats off the Tories. The best chance of Labour not having to form a coalition is for Labour to win an outright majority - which as you say looks very unlikley at this moment.

So all those people not wanting a Labour majority - be very careful what you wish for.

[wilts rover]

This is a useful account and poll to follow - shows which party people think is best on particular policy areas.

Its difficult to win an election when people think you are incompetent/not delivering:

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1522516583909933056

[drfchound]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

Would people who voted for Brexit vote for Labour if they knew that wilts.
What do you reckon.
It potentially rules out half of the country voting for them.

Not really. There are very few seats where the Lib Dems fight Labour - so a Lib Dem resurgence will take seats off the Tories. The best chance of Labour not having to form a coalition is for Labour to win an outright majority - which as you say looks very unlikley at this moment.

So all those people not wanting a Labour majority - be very careful what you wish for.

I agree with you about the Lib Dems not fighting Labour in a lot of areas but my earlier question was more along the lines of would Brexiteers vote for Labour if they thought Starmer would be in favour of rejoining the EU.

[wilts rover]

Wilts there's the DUP but otherwise I take your point.

2 of the last 4 GE's have resulted in hung parliaments and given current polling combined with Tory gerrymandering a 3rd in 5 is not out of the question.

After what Johnson has done to them over the NI Protocol! There is more chance of him forming an alliance with Sinn Fein and they dont take their seats.

A lot can change in two years - but as things stand now I would say Labour forming a coalition with at least one pro-rejoin EU party is the most likely outcome.

Would people who voted for Brexit vote for Labour if they knew that wilts.
What do you reckon.
It potentially rules out half of the country voting for them.

Not really. There are very few seats where the Lib Dems fight Labour - so a Lib Dem resurgence will take seats off the Tories. The best chance of Labour not having to form a coalition is for Labour to win an outright majority - which as you say looks very unlikley at this moment.

So all those people not wanting a Labour majority - be very careful what you wish for.

I agree with you about the Lib Dems not fighting Labour in a lot of areas but my earlier question was more along the lines of would Brexiteers vote for Labour if they thought Starmer would be in favour of rejoining the EU.

I am afraid you will need to ask those Brexiteers who vote Labour that question hound. I thought the vast majority of Brexiteers voted Tory anyway - and you can see from Thursdays results how well they are doing. And Starmer has always said he is not in favour of rejoining the EU.

If the Tories loose 40 seats they loose their majority. They will easily do that in the metropolitan areas, south/south west, Cumbria, Wales and Scotland based on those results. Can they take more seats away from Labour in Brexit areas to make up for that? Again, not on those results.

Unless Labour win an outright majority they will be in coalition with a pro-rejoin EU party. The more seats they need to make up that coalition the more pro-EU parties will be involved.

The best way for Brexiteer Labour voters to stop this is for them to vote Labour into power and not need a coalition - thats just counting.

If people decide they want to vote against Labour to stop them rejoining the EU - the more likely they are to cause that. That's how I see the numbers.

[River Don]

We desperately need to accept Brexit and forget about it.

[drfchound]

We desperately need to accept Brexit and forget about it.

As a Remainer, fed up of reading whines from some posters about what Brexit has or hasn’t done for us all, I made your suggestion on here a few months ago.
I was bombed from all sides with shite and told that I shouldn’t be suggesting anything as outrageous as that.
It is very unlikely that we will be going back on the vote so we have to crack on and make the best of what we have.
Moaning won’t make much, if any, difference.

[albie]

People need to be cautious about extrapolating from local elections to a future GE 2 years down the line.

Turnout is lower in the local elections, and some Tories have stayed at home to knee Bozo in the goolies for his constant unreliability.

London does not represent the UK as a whole, and a high proportion of these local results were in the London area.

How many of the stay at homes are back in at a GE is important, as is whether CoCo has left the Big Top by then.

As for Starmer, his obsession with a pro-unionist position is directly against the direction of travel in Scotland and NI. Very difficult to see a pathway to a majority for him with the profile and policies on display at present.