Sunak or Truss

[danumdon]

I'm just hoping someone can just cement his legs, preferably to the foundations of a bridge.

[Ldr]

Worried about being toast ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62715983

[SydneyRover]

Worried about being toast ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-62715983

burnt toast and about as useful

[mugnapper]

Why didn’t she just hide in a fridge, rather than weasel out of hard questions?

[BillyStubbsTears]

An indication of how horrific a Truss Govt will be.

Word is she is going to make Rees-Mogg Secretary of State for the Dept of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

Jesus
f**king
Wept.

The Minister for the 18th Century is going to be leading our industrial strategy, and our response to the energy crisis.

[Ldr]

An indication of how horrific a Truss Govt will be.

Word is she is going to make Rees-Mogg Secretary of State for the Dept of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.

Jesus
f**king
Wept.

The Minister for the 18th Century is going to be leading our industrial strategy, and our response to the energy crisis.

To be fair his 18th century knowledge should include how to start an industrial revolution

[TommyC]

John Redwood also in line for a return to front line politics with a senior front bench role at the Treasury.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/back-from-the-outer-limits-the-vulcan-sets-phasers-to-stun-the-treasury-0r5c5kfzz

[BillyStubbsTears]

John Redwood also in line for a return to front line politics with a senior front bench role at the Treasury.....

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/back-from-the-outer-limits-the-vulcan-sets-phasers-to-stun-the-treasury-0r5c5kfzz

Dear God.

It feels like she's a plant, dropped in with a mission to make the Tories unelectable for a generation.

Redwood! He's barely on nodding terms with economic principles. He's spouted utter unmitigated shite on the subject for years.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, every once in a while, there's a political upheaval. The methods and philosophy that underpinned the previous generation fall apart. A new paradigm emerges.

It happened in 1945.

It happened in 1979.

If this, in the UK, in 2022 isn't the wake up call that it needs to happen again, God knows what is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1564732582851395585

[Ldr]

Meanwhile, every once in a while, there's a political upheaval. The methods and philosophy that underpinned the previous generation fall apart. A new paradigm emerges.

It happened in 1945.

It happened in 1979.

If this, in the UK, in 2022 isn't the wake up call that it needs to happen again, God knows what is.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AvaSantina/status/1564732582851395585

Hope your sitting down Billy, but I find myself agreeing with you

[BillyStubbsTears]

Doesn't surprise me Ldr. It's hard to listen to that and not think that we need a big, big change of direction.

On that score, I very much recommend listening to this, by the brilliant economist and writer Duncan Weldon.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5pzWoPG9S5YW7dxZYtcaAJ?si=uel3ONy9QZmGvrePo6k5JA&nd=1&utm_medium=organic&product=open&%24full_url=https%3A%2F%2Fopen.spotify.com%2Fepisode%2F5pzWoPG9S5YW7dxZYtcaAJ%3Fsi%3Duel3ONy9QZmGvrePo6k5JA&feature=organic&_branch_match_id=847250048138551168&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA72N3QqCMACFn2ZeKrk0DCSEUPCijC5Eb2JtM4dzG%2FuJ7OmbQa8QnIvD%2Bfg4o7XK7KPIKGnZsIRIqZAzMUUHpSVx2OZSURGAeDs4zm9O83xcFQALEJc%2BKw5%2FNpazn6hiRhLqW6LerWyq7Jp07Y68%2Bs5iVNQAloYBeHSUw%2FNpyS79XD01bWQ6JXXx%2FUKc3xGe%2FvEH4lQQTzfBQJF1muZSP5Bg%2BANiONy3GwEAAA%3D%3D

He's laying stuff out very, very clearly about how big a hole we are in, and how much Govt is going to have to spend to get us out of it.

Big picture (he only covers some of this, but the rest is basic facts)

Before the GFC, our Govt Debt to GDP ratio was about 40%

After the GFC, it went up to about 70%.

Austerity and the Brexit vote economic hit pushed it up to about 80%.

COVID pushed it to just under 100%.

Weldon is saying the level of borrowing the Govt will have to do to get us through this will push this up to 120%.

The lesson seems clear to me. The basic economic model isn't strong enough to cope with a series of big, but not existential threats, without relying on ever increasing Govt borrowing just to limp along.

We have to find a better way forward to reinvigorate our economy. The alternative is a brutal, long grinding decline. The start of that is showing up as parents unable to afford school dinners for their kids. If we don't get a handle on this, that will look like a pinprick in 20 years time.

[Colin C No.3]

20 years time?!! More like 2 years time.

Forget food banks, we’re now talking about introducing ‘warm banks’ once the weather turns colder due to a large proportion of the population unable to afford to heat their own homes.

‘Warm banks’ will comprise of public libraries, museums, churches where people can congregate together in one place in order to keep warm.

In Germany they are already turning off lights that would normally illuminate public buildings, statues etc.

I don’t see the Houses of Parliament or the Royal Palaces doing the same.

[SydneyRover]

Just listening to the podcast (ta bst) this if I remember correctly is what was said about Spain last year I think, that due to the gfc and the extremely tough conditions there re work etc that many spent all their savings surviving and now with the covid shock they don't have any wriggle room, they didn't have a chance to recover.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesus Christ. Just seen that Truss's latest policy is to consider abolishing speed limits on motorways.

So that'll be more CO2, more deaths and slower overall journey times. Just to indulge a few people's Top Gear fantasies.

[normal rules]

Given the state of driving on motorways currently I’m unsure we would notice any difference if speed limits were scrapped.
Plus, aren’t new cars from July 2022 fitted with speed limiters? Which I understand can be over ridden by drivers.

[TommyC]

Jesus Christ. Just seen that Truss's latest policy is to consider abolishing speed limits on motorways.

So that'll be more CO2, more deaths and slower overall journey times. Just to indulge a few people's Top Gear fantasies.

It's a cynical tease designed to appeal to kind of person that would vote for a Truss/Tory government. It will never happen. Nor will the abolition of smart motorways, a policy she is also teasing.

Having said that, if any Government did introduce such a policy, I wouldn't view it quite as negatively as you do. I do about 30,000 miles a year primarily on motorways and over the last 2/3 years it has become almost unbearable driving anywhere of any distance due to what I perceive to be badly managed motorways (i.e the "Smart" ones) and an ever increasing sense of "war on the motorist". Is there any actual statistical proof that relaxing speed limited causes more deaths? I genuinely don't know but I would imagine the small number of derestricted sections of autobahn in Germany would provide the closest comparator. I'd imagine there are less accidents and better traffic flow but when there is an accident it would most likely be a big one! In Europe it seems to me that there is a far greater emphasis placed on driving to the conditions as opposed to a pathological focus on the actual speed (see for example dual speed limits on French autoroutes depending on the weather).

I'll give you the example of 30mph outside a school on a snowy day. I think that's excessive and dangerous, yet still legal. 90 mph in the dead of night on a deserted motorway in clear, dry conditions is in my view far less offensive to me. Speed limits used to be enforced with that degree of common sense, but they are no longer. I remember a time where a police officer would exercise their discretion when it came to speeding offences and would instead give you a "producer" and tell you to get on your way if you weren't doing anything outrageously dangerous or offensive.  Those days are gone and it is now a zero tolerance approach across the board. Some say it's down to the money-making element of speeding fines. Maybe so. Personally I feel the bigger issue is that it demonstrates the ever increasing move towards a massively state/government controlled society as opposed to one that places personal liberty and the rule of law as the principles upon which society is based. You and I are fundamentally opposed on that topic BST, we have established that previously, but it's undeniable that  a socialist society can only be achieved with massive state control at the expense of personal liberty and that seems to me the way in which this Country and the world in general is going. The pandemic and how it was handled is/was a further battleground upon which that debate was played out. 

Elections these days aren't fought on left/right principles of old. Brexit voting demographics and the fall of the "red wall" should tell us that. It's now about woke v anti-woke, socialism/big government versus personal liberty. These teased, pie in the sky policies from Truss appealing to the traditional embattled, fed up and embittered "motorist" (yes I am one for my sins) would hold huge appeal to the demographic that the Tories will be trying to appeal to. 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tommy.

This from Der Spiegel, says that the rate of fatal accidents on autobahns without a speed limit is 75% higher than on those with one.

https://www.spiegel.de/auto/aktuell/tempolimit-koennte-jaehrlich-bis-zu-140-todesfaelle-verhindern-a-1254504.html

Anecdotally, I drove 300 miles in a day in Germany recently, much of it on unlimited autobahns. I saw FIVE major  accidents including two that must have been fatal (a car on its roof with the roof smashed right into the cabin, and a van piled into the back of a truck and engulfed in flames.

I'm a seasoned driver but I was genuinely shocked at dealing with the number of cars piling down the outside lane at above a ton. It is by some way the most stressful day's driving I've had in years and I'll crawl over broken glass to avoid it in future.

Regarding personal responsibility, I'm in favour of that wherever suitable. I'm not sure how me being responsible does anything to prevent some other Kitson from piling into the back of me at 120mph, or choosing to pour out three times the CO2 that they ought to.

[normal rules]

It’s always amazes me why cars just don’t have limiters fitted. Like lorries do.
Everyone gets where they need to be, safer. It may take a little longer, but less people die or get seriously injured. We use less fuel, pollute the environment less, and it would probably be considerably less stressful.

[Panda]

IMO it has already been decided that Sunak will win and it was decided a long time ago. No evidence, just a gut feeling.

[normal rules]

IMO it has already been decided that Sunak will win and it was decided a long time ago. No evidence, just a gut feeling.

Best get y’sen down t bookies then Panda. You can get 12/1 on Sunak. Whereas truss is between 1/20 and 1/100.

[Panda]

IMO it has already been decided that Sunak will win and it was decided a long time ago. No evidence, just a gut feeling.

Best get y’sen down t bookies then Panda. You can get 12/1 on Sunak. Whereas truss is between 1/20 and 1/100.

Yep. I know it seems mightily improbable now given how Truss has 'performed' these past few months but just a hunch. Anyway, wasn't the Brexit vote a no brainer in favour of remain according to the bookies but yet that didn't happen? IIRC? Might have 20 quid on Sunak then. Truss talks a good game but we all know what will happen as soon as she gets in, if she does get in. Sunak seems like a globalist and one for the puppet masters above to control and pull the strings of to suit their agenda so feel it will be him still.

[ravenrover]

It’s always amazes me why cars just don’t have limiters fitted. Like lorries do.
Everyone gets where they need to be, safer. It may take a little longer, but less people die or get seriously injured. We use less fuel, pollute the environment less, and it would probably be considerably less stressful.

My Volvo has 2 speed limiters, 1 is my Mrs the other is the caravan :-]]

[BillyStubbsTears]

Interesting piece here from an economist who is well over to the left.

https://mobile.twitter.com/meadwaj/status/1565338925056417792

Tl:dr. He's saying that he thinks Truss has an economic plan to win the next Election, based on massive tax cuts to produce a boom in the run up to a 2024 Election before the really serious pain of massive cutbacks gets rolled out after the next Election.

That's the oldest trick in the book in politics.

But people on the left, me included, have assumed it wasn't possible this time because of the effect on the Govt debt.

This guy is saying the (very right wing) economists advising Truss are saying "to hell with the deficit, get the economy booming." Which is precisely what we should have been saying 12 years ago. But when people on the left did say it, those on the right said we were living in cloud cuckoo land.

Problem is, going balls out for growth NOW when inflation is already a problem, risks very serious long term economic damage. The Tories have done it twice before, in the early 70s and late 80s, when they cut taxes and pushed us into unsustainable booms. Both times inflation ended up our of control and both times that resulted in a serious recession 3 years down the line.

Truss is such a hard nosed ambitious person, I wouldn't put it past her to adopt a policy that she knows damn well is seriously bad for the long term, as long as it gives her a shot of winning the Election.

[River Don]

Jesus Christ. Just seen that Truss's latest policy is to consider abolishing speed limits on motorways.

So that'll be more CO2, more deaths and slower overall journey times. Just to indulge a few people's Top Gear fantasies.

I saw this and just laughed. She is bonkers.

Then I wondered if she's just trying to distract from the car crash that is her economic policy?

[normal rules]

Data from the Office for National Statistics below shows the percentages of National Debt (excluding public sector banks) to GDP at each date of each general election dates.

Labour: 1945 (243.8%) to 1951 (178.3%)
Conservative: 1951 (178.3%) to 1955 (139.3%) to 1959 (112.5%) to 1964 (88.9%)
Labour: 1964 (88.9%) to 1966 (80.8%) to 1970 (59.5%)
Conservative: 1970 (59.5%) to 1974 (57.0%)
Labour: 1974 (57.0%) to 1979 (45.1%)
Conservative: 1979 (45.1%) to 1983 (41.5%) to 1987 (34.3%) to 1992 (28.1%) to 1997 (38.4%)
Labour: 1997 (38.4%) to 2001 (29.1%) to 2005 (35.4%) to 2010 (71.7%)
Conservative/LibDem: 2010 (71.7%) to 2015 (84.9%)
Conservative: 2015 (84.9%) to 2017 (86.1%)

On the whole they have not done bad. 2008 saw the US property crash which sent financial shockwaves around the world, which explains the jump in 2010 during Labours tenure.

[BillyStubbsTears]

NR.
You need to look at the context of how the debt to GDP came down after the War.

It was at astronomical levels in 1945 after two world wars had to be paid for, and the shocking interwar economic performance had pushed it higher.

But we didn't get these percentages down by paying off the debt. The debt in 1997 was WAY higher than it had been in 1945. What had changed was that the economy, measured by GDP had grown much, much faster. Plus, we'd had high inflation for much of that period.

The debt to GDP ratio us about 100% now and it had better go up to 120% if we are going to stop people freezing or starving to death this winter.

After that, we desperately need two decades or more of above average growth to whittle away the debt problem. Instead of the grindingly awful growth that Austerity and Brexit have given us over the time this lot have been in power.

[mugnapper]

https://news.sky.com/story/sexual-misconduct-allegations-revealed-against-cabinet-minister-and-top-no-10-aide-12686969

I’m guessing she’ll be sorting this out as a priority.

[SydneyRover]

https://news.sky.com/story/sexual-misconduct-allegations-revealed-against-cabinet-minister-and-top-no-10-aide-12686969

I’m guessing she’ll be sorting this out as a priority.

''Liz Truss refuses to commit to appointing ethics adviser

Tory leadership hopeful says there is no need for independent body as she has ‘always acted with integrity’''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/aug/23/liz-truss-refuses-to-commit-to-appointing-ethics-adviser

[normal rules]

I wonder if her plan regarding scrapping speed limits on motorways is an attempt to ease pressure off the nhs. Because pile ups with cars doing three figures is a certain way to bypass a and e. Straight to the morgue. Perhaps it’s population control by stealth?

I can see it now though. Boy and girl racers  flocking to certain stretches of motorways to race each other. It won’t end well.

[drfchound]

There was a time when I did quite a lot of driving in the USA.
I liked their Interstate (our motorway) driving rules.
Usually 65mph speed limit and drivers could stay in lane, any lane, whilst people could pass on either side of you.
It was so much more relaxing driving like that.