truss

[BillyStubbsTears]

Budget's going well...

Once again, just imagine if a Labour Chancellor had given away £50bn in tax cuts to the poorest and the £ had tanked.

Are labour proposing to reverse the tax cut or halt the energy freeze?  With the exception of the 45% tax cut there isn't that much labour wouldn't do.  They've largely done exactly what everyone has been crying out for them to do.

Well there's the energy companies windfall tax for a start.

The point is that absolutely zero of the £165bn energy cap and tax giveaways that the Tories have announced is funded. Every single penny is coming from borrowing. And they have deliberately suppressed the OBR report on the economic effects of these decisions.

Ask yourself. If you were a foreign investor, would YOU buy the £ in those circumstances?

[SydneyRover]

Budget's going well...

Once again, just imagine if a Labour Chancellor had given away £50bn in tax cuts to the poorest and the £ had tanked.

Are labour proposing to reverse the tax cut or halt the energy freeze?  With the exception of the 45% tax cut there isn't that much labour wouldn't do.  They've largely done exactly what everyone has been crying out for them to do.

It's a bit weird then that the pound is imitating a brick and stocks have fallen, not the usual response to good news.

[BillyStubbsTears]

By the way. You're going to hear "the £ is falling because the $ is so strong" a LOT from the Tories this week.

Facts:

Since Truss came to power three weeks ago, the £ is down 9% against the $. (It was 11% earlier today.)

The € is down 3% Vs the $ over the same period.

So yes the $ is strong.

And no, that's not nearly half the reason for the collapse of the £.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Budget's going well...

Once again, just imagine if a Labour Chancellor had given away £50bn in tax cuts to the poorest and the £ had tanked.

Are labour proposing to reverse the tax cut or halt the energy freeze?  With the exception of the 45% tax cut there isn't that much labour wouldn't do.  They've largely done exactly what everyone has been crying out for them to do.

Well there's the energy companies windfall tax for a start.

The point is that absolutely zero of the £165bn energy cap and tax giveaways that the Tories have announced is funded. Every single penny is coming from borrowing. And they have deliberately suppressed the OBR report on the economic effects of these decisions.

Ask yourself. If you were a foreign investor, would YOU buy the £ in those circumstances?

I don't disagree on that point actually it is the other thing that you'd think would be an obvious move given the other things announced. Let's be clear though both parties are promoting massive borrowing.

From what I've heard so far from labour their approach is more sensible but not as different as some of you make out, the differences are quite minor.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Labour has been proposing borrowing to invest in infrastructure for a decade. That was and is a sensible approach, in fact THE only sensible approach if you want long term growth.

For what it's worth, I think Starmer has made a big mistake in agreeing with the 19% income tax rate. It's simply not sustainable in the current circumstances. He should have come out clearly saying that. Big, big mistake.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, if you think the drop in the £ is bad...

The real carnage is going on in the gilts market. That is the interest rate that the finance markets want, if they are to lend money to the Govt.

At the turn of the year it was 1%. As of right now it is 4.5%.

That means the Govt needs to find an extra £70bn/year to pay interest on its debts.

One third of that entire increases has occurred since Kwarteng started speaking on Friday.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, since the hedge funders on the far right of the Tory party appear to have made a killing yesterday shorting British debt, might as well try to make a few Bob out of this shit show.

11/4 that Truss is booted out by the Tory party before the next election.

9/4 and shortening this morning.

[SydneyRover]

IFS report

https://ifs.org.uk/articles/mini-budget-response

[ChrisBx]

This government won't see out 12 months if they don't reverse these insane measures.

It's time for a general election.

[Filo]

And the Commons is in recess while the economy crashes!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

This government won't see out 12 months if they don't reverse these insane measures.

It's time for a general election.

This is what I struggle with, what should they reverse exactly?

Many posters complained that the government didn't intervene, they've now done that and now everyone complains again.

I'm not seeing much of an alternative from anywhere frankly.  Note, I haven't got one either.

[Redroy]

This government won't see out 12 months if they don't reverse these insane measures.

It's time for a general election.

This is what I struggle with, what should they reverse exactly?

Many posters complained that the government didn't intervene, they've now done that and now everyone complains again.

I'm not seeing much of an alternative from anywhere frankly.  Note, I haven't got one either.

I haven't seen anywhere people complaining that the government weren't intervening to bin off the top rate of tax, cut corporation tax etc? People were calling for intervention on energy prices but their response has, if I'm being generous, split opinion by lumbering with taxpayer with the bill of paying for it.

I'd say the alternative right now is to not do the things that they are saying they are going to do and then work from there...

[SydneyRover]

This government won't see out 12 months if they don't reverse these insane measures.

It's time for a general election.

This is what I struggle with, what should they reverse exactly?

Many posters complained that the government didn't intervene, they've now done that and now everyone complains again.

I'm not seeing much of an alternative from anywhere frankly.  Note, I haven't got one either.

What do you think of the IFS report pud?

[BillyStubbsTears]

This government won't see out 12 months if they don't reverse these insane measures.

It's time for a general election.

This is what I struggle with, what should they reverse exactly?

Many posters complained that the government didn't intervene, they've now done that and now everyone complains again.

I'm not seeing much of an alternative from anywhere frankly.  Note, I haven't got one either.

Four big mistakes:

1)  Reversing the NI increase
2) Getting rid of the 45% income tax top rate.
3) Reducing the base rate of Income Tax to 19%.
4) Refusing to bring in a windfall tax.

Those collectively mean that the entire package is based on massive borrowing at precisely the time when the markets don't want to lend to us. Which is why the £ has tanked and gilt rates have rocketted.

And yes, Labour has made a big mistake in supporting 1 and 3 above.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I don't agree with bst, the tax burden was too high and still is in some ways.  But your points on 2 and 4 are valid to many people.

Interesting to see how labour propose to enact their spending plans and cut debt.

[Filo]

https://twitter.com/bmay/status/1574368172328849414?s=21&t=CnU_X9NuQijop5A_nrARNw

Lost for words isn’t he?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Quite astonishing isn't it how Eton breeds these generations that combine utter incompetence with arrogant self-confidence.

[Filo]

Quite astonishing isn't it how Eton breeds these generations that combine utter incompetence with arrogant self-confidence.

If Eton were a state school they would be in special measures with the amount of idiots they churn out

[mugnapper]

More astonishing is the fact that Middle and Working Class folk (Plus folk on benefits), keep either voting them in, or enabling them by not voting at all.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This from the BBC.

More from the Conservatives, and this time from MP Danny Kruger, who says the pound’s position against the dollar “is serious” but he thinks markets will respond when they realise “the long-term value” of the measures laid out last Friday.

So
1) We are in a short term big f**k-off hole.

2) It'll be alright when the markets realise that they, and pretty much every macroeconomics experts in the world are wrong, and Truss, Kwarteng & a group of three crank economists have found the magic key to starting growth by pouring money into the pockets of the wealthiest. Even though it has never, ever worked before.

This is actually frightening. We've got no-one with any adult responsibility at the head of Government. And the backwoodsmen Tory MPs are going to let them do what they want.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, since the hedge funders on the far right of the Tory party appear to have made a killing yesterday shorting British debt, might as well try to make a few Bob out of this shit show.

11/4 that Truss is booted out by the Tory party before the next election.

9/4 and shortening this morning.

Get your bets on.

2/1 and shortening.

Tory MPs are briefing that letters of no confidence in Truss have already started to be submitted to the 1922 Committee.

[MachoMadness]

This is just black Wednesday but with a more servile, snivelling right wing press, isn't it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Remember all that talk about how Labour were only ahead in the polls because Johnson was toxic, and the new leader would see a big bounce?

https://mobile.twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1574396208885415938

[wilts rover]

Halifax and Virgin temporarily withdraw all new mortgage products for new customers.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Meanwhile, since the hedge funders on the far right of the Tory party appear to have made a killing yesterday shorting British debt, might as well try to make a few Bob out of this shit show.

11/4 that Truss is booted out by the Tory party before the next election.

9/4 and shortening this morning.

Get your bets on.

2/1 and shortening.

Tory MPs are briefing that letters of no confidence in Truss have already started to be submitted to the 1922 Committee.

That's what happens when, after you oust a leader who you think will lose you the next election, you elect someone with no idea what their policies are going to be. And then, as soon as they get the job, tell you they don't care how unpopular they (and therefore the rest of the party) get before they then assault the economy based on the exact opposite of received economic wisdom.

[wilts rover]

Meanwhile, since the hedge funders on the far right of the Tory party appear to have made a killing yesterday shorting British debt, might as well try to make a few Bob out of this shit show.

11/4 that Truss is booted out by the Tory party before the next election.

9/4 and shortening this morning.

Get your bets on.

2/1 and shortening.

Tory MPs are briefing that letters of no confidence in Truss have already started to be submitted to the 1922 Committee.

That's what happens when, after you oust a leader who you think will lose you the next election, you elect someone with no idea what their policies are going to be. And then, as soon as they get the job, tell you they don't care how unpopular they (and therefore the rest of the party) get before they then assault the economy based on the exact opposite of received economic wisdom.

I did point out during the leadership campaign that 2/3rds of the MP's didn't support Truss and this could lead to trouble with them. Even I didn't think it would be this early tho.

[drfchound]

More astonishing is the fact that Middle and Working Class folk (Plus folk on benefits), keep either voting them in, or enabling them by not voting at all.

To be fair though mugnapper, that is possibly because not enough people think that Labour are a viable alternative.

[drfchound]

Budget's going well...

Once again, just imagine if a Labour Chancellor had given away £50bn in tax cuts to the poorest and the £ had tanked.

Are labour proposing to reverse the tax cut or halt the energy freeze?  With the exception of the 45% tax cut there isn't that much labour wouldn't do.  They've largely done exactly what everyone has been crying out for them to do.

Well there's the energy companies windfall tax for a start.

The point is that absolutely zero of the £165bn energy cap and tax giveaways that the Tories have announced is funded. Every single penny is coming from borrowing. And they have deliberately suppressed the OBR report on the economic effects of these decisions.

Ask yourself. If you were a foreign investor, would YOU buy the £ in those circumstances?

I agree that there should have been a windfall tax but TBH it would be a drop in the ocean when it boils down to it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I heartily recommend listening to tonight's PM programme on R4 if you want to understand how utterly f**king clueless the Tories' economic policy is.

Here's the fundamentals. The basics of economics.

If you want the economy to grow, you reduce taxes, increase Govt spending and/or reduce interest rates.

If you want to reduce inflation, you increase taxes, reduce Govt spending and/or increase interest rates.

It's REALLY simple. Pro-growth policies are the precise mirror image opposite of anti-inflation policies.

Right.

Lord Frost has been on PM tonight. He's the genius who negotiated the Brexit deal. He said this and I'm quoting verbatim.

"Liz Truss has announced a different approach to get us back to growth. And that means a number of things have got to hapoen. Rates have got to go up to get inflation under control. And we are going to have to have lower taxes and fiscal support to get people through this period."

It's genuinely frightening that someone so totally clueless should be anywhere close to power. It's the EXACT equivalent of someone saying that the best way to get somewhere quicker in your car is to hammer the accelerator, but to make sure you don't break the speed limit, press the brake hard at the same time.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's Labour's election campaign poster sorted.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NewEconomyBrief/status/1574455121244819463/photo/1

That graph in the background. It shows how much money Kwarteng's tax changes will give to each group in society. From the poorest 5% on the left to the richest 5% on the right.

Can we please, finally, put this idle "Huh, they're all the same" b*llocks to bed?