It's that time of year...

[normal rules]

The last 6 games of the season always throw up surprises. Form goes out of the window and PPG is irrelevant. It's within most teams capability of putting a run together. A run of wins or a run of losses.

As said, if up to game 39 we can manage between 1.75 to 2 pts per game, I suspect we'll be in a good position for play offs and possibly a tilt for automatic.

It's not a must win in Saturday but anything other than a loss sets us up to bridge that gap to the play off positions, then it's a case of staying there until the last 6 burn up!

Based on the 2ppg theory at games played 39. Rovers would have to get 32 more points from the next 9 games. Which is mathematically impossible. Even at 1.75ppg for games played 39, would mean 22 points from 9 games. Which is a very very tall order. That’s 6 or 7 win territory. Plus draws.

[normal rules]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

[Dutch Uncle]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

I think what DBR was meaning was if can average 1.75 to 2ppg in the next 9 games that would give us between 62 and 64 points with 7 to go, and in a good position for those last 7 games

[BillyStubbsTears]

Little bit of realism here.

If we get 2ppg from the next 9 games, we will by then have got 36 points from the past 19 games. That's something close to title winning form over nearly half a season.

Optimist that I am, I'm not buying that this squad is capable of that sort of form for that length of time.

And of course, I'll be delighted to be proved wrong.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

I think what DBR was meaning was if can average 1.75 to 2ppg in the next 9 games that would give us between 62 and 64 points with 7 to go, and in a good position for those last 7 games

I did indeed!

[ravenrover]

I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins

[scawsby steve]

My take is that we are going to get to the end of the season and, when we just miss out on the playoffs, ask ourselves how we managed to drop 9 points from three games against Hartlepool and Colchester.

Swings and roundabouts, BST. Think how MK Dons must have felt last season. Just 2 draws against the worst Rovers side in over 20 years would have given them automatic promotion.

Instead, we did the bloody double over them.

Just to add, 2 of the scorers in that double were Cukur and Dodoo. Without those goals, MK Dons would be in the Championship.

That's football. Absolutely crazy.

[Campsall rover]

I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins

We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.

We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.

I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.

As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.

I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now.  This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.

A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March. 
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H  and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.

If only results of games were that predictable.  Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins

We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.

We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.

I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.

As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.

I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now.  This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.

A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March. 
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H  and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.

If only results of games were that predictable.  Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.

Losing isn't so bad, as long as we pick up wins too. Wining 4 and losing 4 of those 8 is decent. Winning 5, losing 3 is good. Better than 4 wins 2 draws and 2 losses!!

[Campsall rover]

I think we all need to take a deep breath, everyone getting a bit too excited after 3 wins

We are ravenrover. But it’s good to see all this positivity.

We could all come crashing down to earth if we only pick up 1 or 2 points from the next 3 games.

I do think that the team are starting to believe in themselves and keeping 3 clean sheets in the last 3 games is a massive boost to the teams belief.

As CBcb keeps saying clean sheets are the key. This team are not going to score 3 goals a game.
They are unlikely to ave 2 goals a game over the last 16 games. So clean sheets mean we only need to score 1 goal to win a game.

I seriously would be disappointed if we don’t make the play offs now.  This is not a great league and all the teams fighting for a play off place have been very inconsistent. It’s there for the taking. I believe we can do this now.

A huge set of fixtures between now and end of March. 
6 matches against teams all still hoping for a top 7 finish, Sutton A, Bradford H, Stockport A, Wimbledon H, Salford A, & Northampton H  and 2 strugglers in Harrogate H, & Crawley A
We don’t have to win all these games but it’s important we don’t lose many. Lose more than 2 against the 6 rivals then we are going to struggle.
The last 8 games after this run of 8 is much easier on paper. Only Stevenage A & Walsall A in the current top 15 teams.

If only results of games were that predictable.  Anyway I am confident. Not going to arrange anything for the play off final weekend that is for sure.

Losing isn't so bad, as long as we pick up wins too. Wining 4 and losing 4 of those 8 is decent. Winning 5, losing 3 is good. Better than 4 wins 2 draws and 2 losses!!

Agree up to a point.  No pun intended as what you say gives us 1 more point.  So that’s good.
Losing 3 games to play off rivals though gives them more points where as draws keeps us on the same no of points.

[dickos1]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December

[BillyStubbsTears]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December

We've got to get 72-75 points. That not "not much". It means we have got to continue form to the end of the season that we've only managed for about 1/3rd of the season to date.

That's not impossible, but neither is it "not much". It means we have to be close to our best game for 12-13 of the remaining games.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after today.

1st 87 92
2nd 84 82
3rd 82 81
4th 79 79
5th 75 79
6th 73 76
7th 73 72
8th 70 69
9th 69 69
10th 69 69
11th 67 65
12th 64 65
13th 63 60
14th 61 58

[dickos1]

Let’s talk the impossible. If rovers won every game from now till season end that would give them 94 points.
Even then the ppg over the season would only be 2.04 ppg.
You see my point?
A win tomorrow only makes a small diff to the ppg an average. Probably only 0.05.
Rovers have had a very inconsistent/ average start to the season. It will take a lot to turn this around to a playoff/ promotion position.
But we have some hope at last.

It’s not going to take much to get us into the playoffs.
We’re 2 points off and only 6 off the top 3.
We’ve been in play off form since late December

We've got to get 72-75 points. That not "not much". It means we have got to continue form to the end of the season that we've only managed for about 1/3rd of the season to date.

That's not impossible, but neither is it "not much". It means we have to be close to our best game for 12-13 of the remaining games.

But the side in the last play off spot have the same ppg as us, so they also need this “remarkable form” you talk of

[BillyStubbsTears]

1) I didn't say "remarkable" form. It's hard enough discussing things sensibly with you as it is, without you inventing things I haven't said.

2) Look at the table.

To hit 72 points, this is how many PPG the following sides need between now and the end of the season.

Salford: 1.64
Bradford 1.50
Donny 1.73
Sutton 1.79
Swindon 1.80

Barring a slip from the sides in 6th and higher (not impossible, but let's leave that for now, as it doesn't make a great deal of difference to the argument), only one of those sides is going to make the playoffs. Odds are against any individual one of them hitting 72 points while the other 4 don't.

Chances are one will and the others won't. That might be us, but the likelihood is it won't be.

[dickos1]

Fact is, we’ve 15 games left and to get into the payoffs we need around 25 points. Over the last 15 games we’ve got 24 points, so pretty much we’ve just got to maintain the form we’ve been in since schofield took over

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

[pib]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.

[dickos1]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

I am getting it,
We’re 3 points off the play offs with a game in hand, teams like Salford and Northampton are struggling big time, we maintain or current form and we will be on the brink of the playoffs, a slight improvement and we’re in the playoffs

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.

Or 71 points won't be enough because 7th place is predicted to get 72.

Took me quite a few years of making this error to realise that what the model is saying is that, as things currently stand, the side finishing in 7th is likely to get 72 points and the side finishing in 8th is likely to get 69. That's different from saying "you're likely to finish 7th if you get more than 69 points.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

I am getting it,
We’re 3 points off the play offs with a game in hand, teams like Salford and Northampton are struggling big time, we maintain or current form and we will be on the brink of the playoffs, a slight improvement and we’re in the playoffs

Thank you. You've accepted that our long term form over any part of the season to date needs improving on.

Which was my point that you weren't happy with.

[dickos1]

I said it’s not going to take much, as in much improvement.
But the form over the last 15 games is almost good enough, and we’ve been very poor for part of that period. So it’s not going to take much improvement to reach that 72 points

[BillyStubbsTears]

I said it’s not going to take much, as in much improvement.
But the form over the last 15 games is almost good enough, and we’ve been very poor for part of that period. So it’s not going to take much improvement to reach that 72 points

It requires us to average 1.73 PPG for the last 15 games. That's equivalent to 3rd/4th place form over a season.

I don't think you fully get that the "little" things are actually quite big things.

[dickos1]

So we need to improve from 1.6 to 1.73, not going on runs where we lose 3 on the bounce would mean we achieve that.

[pib]

Dickos.

You're not getting it.

If we continue that form of the previous 15 games, we end up on 70 points. That is only sufficient for promotion if both Bradford and Salford drop into midtable form AND neither Swindon, Sutton and anyone below then doesn't hit a rich vein of form.

Not impossible to envisage,  but not likely.

The point I was making earlier was that, to make the playoffs, we are likely going to have to finish the season in better form than we have managed over a long period all season.

FWIW I think we'll miss out on the play-offs, but to be fair to Dickos, if the model you posted today at 5.27pm proves to be accurate at the end of the season, 70pts would be sufficient as 8th place is down to finish on 69pts.

Or 71 points won't be enough because 7th place is predicted to get 72.

Took me quite a few years of making this error to realise that what the model is saying is that, as things currently stand, the side finishing in 7th is likely to get 72 points and the side finishing in 8th is likely to get 69. That's different from saying "you're likely to finish 7th if you get more than 69 points.

You're going to have to explain that one to me again then Billy. If the model is saying the 8th placed team is likely to get 69 points and that turns out to be more-or-less accurate, then I'm not sure why the 7th placed side NEEDS 72. They might be likely to GET 72, but they wouldn't NEED it - that points gap between 7th and 8th is just a forecast based on the model at this particular point in time. But that doesn't translate to what a team would need in real life terms. So it suggests to me that there is likely to be some small margin for error and dropped points in the run-in. What the 7th placed team needs is to better the points of 8th place.

I've never really got on board with this model because I don't really see how a forecast that fluctuates every week really tells us much, but if we are running with it and seriously discussing it then I don't think wires should get crossed between what we would need to make 7th position and what the team in 7th position is forecasted to get.

[normal rules]

After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pib

The point is that the model is NOT predicting what a TEAM NEEDS to get. It's predicting what the likely final points WILL BE for each position.

You're taking a part of that (predicted total for 8th position is 69 points) and concluding that you only need to get 70 points to finish in 7th place.

But that's a mistake.

Because the model is saying that the most likely points tally that the side finishing in 7th place will get is 72. So if that's right, you're not going to secure 7th place by getting 70 points.

What you're doing is saying we only need to do better than the predicted 8th place figure to get 7th place, but ignoring that fact that that would leave us behind the predicted total for 7th place.

The way I look at it, given how the model's numbers currently are, is that if we got 70 points, we'd be in a final position that is currently impossible to determine. Better than 8th but below 7th. A better mathematician than me would probably be able to explain it as a fallacy of applying continuous analysis to a discrete system.

I should of course say that there's nothing sacrosanct about the 69 and 72 points figures. They will inevitably jiggle around a bit as results come and go. I'd be astonished if in the final table, the team in 8th does have 69 points and the team in 7th, 72. It makes more sense to see it as a band. I'd say the likelihood is that 8th place will end up with 67-71 points and 7th with 71-75, with a bit more likelihood that the numbers will be in the middle of those bands.

Or of course, this could be the season where the entire model falls apart and it turns out I've been wasting my and everyone else's time.

[normal rules]

A loss against Bradford drops the ppg again to around 1.43. Which if continued would drop final points tally to around 65/66 points.
Which is mid table obscurity.

[dickos1]

After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.

I’m comparing the last 15 games, so over the last 15 games we’ve averaged 1.6ppg, pretty much Danny’s tenure that.
Continue this form and we will finish this season on 70 points.
This time last year Bristol rovers and port vale were 9th and 11th in the league
Both got promoted

[BillyStubbsTears]

After todays loss, rovers ppg ave for the season has dropped to 1.48. which if continued would give us 68 points. Or 11th based on bst calculations.
A win against Bradford would only increase this to 1.53.
With games running out, We are miles off anything above 1.7. A win increases the ppg by around 0.5. So we would need a run of 4 wins to get above 1.7.

I’m comparing the last 15 games, so over the last 15 games we’ve averaged 1.6ppg, pretty much Danny’s tenure that.
Continue this form and we will finish this season on 70 points.
This time last year Bristol rovers and port vale were 9th and 11th in the league
Both got promoted

I'm not sure I understand the point you're making with respect to last year's promotions.

Port Vale ended the season P15 W9 D2 L4

Bristol Rovers ended the season P15 W10 D3 L2

So two sides won promotion from difficult positions by having exceptional form for the final 15 games. Is that what you think we will do?