Miller

[Pliskin]

Miller is good at making runs in behind and feeding off throughballs. He is bad at playing with his back to goal receiving the ball into feet.

The way we play means that he has to do a lot more of the latter than the former. We didn't even think to look for a striker in January who could play this role well.

Maybe we are still useless when it comes to aligning recruitment with how we actually want to play.

[Chris Black come back]

Consistently amazes me we buy players and only then try to make them fit into a system. Fejiri couldn’t play with his back to the goal. Dodoo to the extent he could play, was a wider player. Miller needs ball in front of him. All of these made to play in a way they are patently not suited to playing.

[foxbat]

Interesting that Mark Hughes was watching,  a former striker who played exactly that role , receiving the ball with his back to the goal,  holding off/ beating a couple of defenders and putting the ball in the net.
Many ,many times for United and Wales.
I can't remember the last time I saw Rovers do that.

I think he was thinking,  why try and play to that system when you haven't got strikers that can do that ?

[Chris Black come back]

The logic must be that the one up can hold the ball up and play with the 2/3 behind him to bring them into play. This doesn’t happen as Miller is not a player to hold the ball up, and nobody ever runs past him. He’s totally isolated so that when he inevitably loses the ball, it goes straight to the opposition with no press to put them straight under pressure. It’s the worst of both worlds really.

[normal rules]

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.”

[Donnywolf]

Which one Miller or Lavery ?

[ncRover]

League 2 big chances missed

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/109/stats/season/17836/players/big_chance_missed/league-two-players

[sedwardsdrfc]

The logic must be that the one up can hold the ball up and play with the 2/3 behind him to bring them into play. This doesn’t happen as Miller is not a player to hold the ball up, and nobody ever runs past him. He’s totally isolated so that when he inevitably loses the ball, it goes straight to the opposition with no press to put them straight under pressure. It’s the worst of both worlds really.

You can play one up top who isn’t a back to goal type. Leicester did it with Vardy for a while. Needs us to play quickly to get in behind early though. Useless if we want to boss possession

[GazLaz]

League 2 big chances missed

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/109/stats/season/17836/players/big_chance_missed/league-two-players

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=286088.msg1189527#msg1189527


Miller getting chances at a rate of 0.3xG per game. That’s been consistent all season. His goals return matches this.

[ncRover]

The logic must be that the one up can hold the ball up and play with the 2/3 behind him to bring them into play. This doesn’t happen as Miller is not a player to hold the ball up, and nobody ever runs past him. He’s totally isolated so that when he inevitably loses the ball, it goes straight to the opposition with no press to put them straight under pressure. It’s the worst of both worlds really.

You can play one up top who isn’t a back to goal type. Leicester did it with Vardy for a while. Needs us to play quickly to get in behind early though. Useless if we want to boss possession

I don’t think he’s quick enough to play that way either. Vardy in his prime was lightning.

[sedwardsdrfc]

Agree probably not got the lightning pace to really scare teams. But we a in L2 the centre half’s are slower too

[ForsolongaRover]

It is an inescapable fact that Miller has scored only 2 goals subsequent to the Crewe game at which point Schofield had only just arrived. He got the two goals in question at Grimsby which was more free-flowing than the style which is now embedded.

So it is legitimate to question whether Miller fits into the present scheme. Obviously his inability to adapt to the DS system is not DS’s fault. Not adapting to it is costing us though and it points up both the player’s and the manager’s limitations. As scoring goals is vital it is surely simpler for the Head Coach to modify things to accommodate the player.

You could say that it has cost us 8+ Miller goals at least.

[drfchound]

Given that DS would have known what players we had when he came here and that we were unlikely to be able to bring in another regular goal scoring forward (because other clubs would usually pay more wages than we can afford for such a player) then I think he is in the wrong by not putting together a system which suits the players.

[BillyStubbsTears]

League 2 big chances missed

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/109/stats/season/17836/players/big_chance_missed/league-two-players

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=286088.msg1189527#msg1189527


Miller getting chances at a rate of 0.3xG per game. That’s been consistent all season. His goals return matches this.

Genuine question.

Does the xG figure for Miller take into account the fact that he's totally unable to shoot with his left foot, and therefore is limited as a finisher? Or does it only take into account the quality of the chance and how many goals an average striker would score from those.

If it's the former, I can see why the xG isso low as he's had a hell of a lot of really, really good chances that he's spurned through not using his left foot.

If the xG is NOT making an allowance for his left foot failings, but rather just considering the quality of the chances, xG of 0.3 (9.9 goals so far this season in his 30 games) does seem very low. That footmob data of him missing 13 good chances doesn't feel wrong. You'd expect a reasonable striker to be converting several of those. And my recollection is that few of the 9 he has scored were one in a million efforts, most of them being fairly routine finishes. So from what I've seen of his chances, I'd have expected a good finisher to have scored more like 14-15 goals and have an xG of around 0.5.

Which says to me that as a side, we are creating chances for our main striker. He's just been poor at converting them.

[ncRover]

League 2 big chances missed

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/109/stats/season/17836/players/big_chance_missed/league-two-players

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=286088.msg1189527#msg1189527


Miller getting chances at a rate of 0.3xG per game. That’s been consistent all season. His goals return matches this.

Genuine question.

Does the xG figure for Miller take into account the fact that he's totally unable to shoot with his left foot, and therefore is limited as a finisher? Or does it only take into account the quality of the chance and how many goals an average striker would score from those.

If it's the former, I can see why the xG isso low as he's had a hell of a lot of really, really good chances that he's spurned through not using his left foot.

If the xG is NOT making an allowance for his left foot failings, but rather just considering the quality of the chances, xG of 0.3 (9.9 goals so far this season in his 30 games) does seem very low. That footmob data of him missing 13 good chances doesn't feel wrong. You'd expect a reasonable striker to be converting several of those. And my recollection is that few of the 9 he has scored were one in a million efforts, most of them being fairly routine finishes. So from what I've seen of his chances, I'd have expected a good finisher to have scored more like 14-15 goals and have an xG of around 0.5.

Which says to me that as a side, we are creating chances for our main striker. He's just been poor at converting them.

People seem to be in denial about what the stats say. See Mitchell distribution thread.

[GazLaz]

League 2 big chances missed

https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/109/stats/season/17836/players/big_chance_missed/league-two-players

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=286088.msg1189527#msg1189527


Miller getting chances at a rate of 0.3xG per game. That’s been consistent all season. His goals return matches this.

Genuine question.

Does the xG figure for Miller take into account the fact that he's totally unable to shoot with his left foot, and therefore is limited as a finisher? Or does it only take into account the quality of the chance and how many goals an average striker would score from those.

If it's the former, I can see why the xG isso low as he's had a hell of a lot of really, really good chances that he's spurned through not using his left foot.

If the xG is NOT making an allowance for his left foot failings, but rather just considering the quality of the chances, xG of 0.3 (9.9 goals so far this season in his 30 games) does seem very low. That footmob data of him missing 13 good chances doesn't feel wrong. You'd expect a reasonable striker to be converting several of those. And my recollection is that few of the 9 he has scored were one in a million efforts, most of them being fairly routine finishes. So from what I've seen of his chances, I'd have expected a good finisher to have scored more like 14-15 goals and have an xG of around 0.5.

Which says to me that as a side, we are creating chances for our main striker. He's just been poor at converting them.

What % chance would you think they class a good chance as? It’s usually 25-30% probability of scoring. Probably lower than people would presume.

I said it at the start of the season and I’ll say it again with the numbers to back me up. Miller will score at around 0.3 goals per game in an average L2 side, which is not terrible, but his all round play is terrible which makes him a pretty average L2 player. Absolutely no parts of his game would translate to a higher level meaning his potential resale value is pretty much zero.

I’d he was playing in a two up top as a second striker with a really good player next to him, then ok, he could be ok BUT how many teams play two up top? Not many. Another reason that if he did fluke up and get 20 in a season, teams wouldn’t be queueing up to sign him.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apologies Gaz, I don't think I made my question clear.

Is the 0.3 figure the goals you'd expect a typical striker to score from the chances Miller had had, or the goals you'd specifically expect Miller to score?

[GazLaz]

Apologies Gaz, I don't think I made my question clear.

Is the 0.3 figure the goals you'd expect a typical striker to score from the chances Miller had had, or the goals you'd specifically expect Miller to score?

Average conversion from that shot location. Not individual to a specific player.

[Tazemma]

The whole set up of the team relies upon miller holding the ball up to allow others to get into forward positions. He doesn’t do this and therefore we don’t have any sustained possession in the final third.

He’s not the answer in this system but that’s not to say he doesn’t have a part to play in the future.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Apologies Gaz, I don't think I made my question clear.

Is the 0.3 figure the goals you'd expect a typical striker to score from the chances Miller had had, or the goals you'd specifically expect Miller to score?

Average conversion from that shot location. Not individual to a specific player.

Interesting.

Do you have access to his xG figures for specific matches? I'm thinking of the Rochdale away game this year as an example.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Have we replaced Tomlin as the main provider of chances from midfield?, no we haven’t.
The manager plays wingers that cut inside so no crosses into the box. We haven’t had a regular assist midfielder behind the strikers.
So Miller has to somehow score from long punts up the field. He has to battle 2-3 centre halves on his own. Is it any wonder he isn’t scoring goals?

[ncRover]

Have we replaced Tomlin as the main provider of chances from midfield?, no we haven’t.
The manager plays wingers that cut inside so no crosses into the box. We haven’t had a regular assist midfielder behind the strikers.
So Miller has to somehow score from long punts up the field. He has to battle 2-3 centre halves on his own. Is it any wonder he isn’t scoring goals?

Agreed that we need some more creativity. Mansfield signed Keillor-Dunn, he would have been ideal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Miller gets into very good positions and we do create (actually, often HE does create) good chances. I really don't think creating chances for him is the core of our problem. It's his finishing that has collapsed. That's why I'm intrigued about the xG figures.

On the Footystats site, they say that against Sutton, the xG for the entire side was 1.00. But Miller had a chance 4 yards from goal, unmarked, no-one in front of him with the keeper 6 yards to the side of him. That was in the top 5% of easiest chances a striker will ever have. Given the fact that we also had 4-5 headers and shots from good positions in that game, I can only assume that someone has put that Miller chance down as a no more than 0.50 xG chance (because the other chances would have added up to a reasonable fraction of the overall 1.00). That makes me think that the xG score that each individual chance is rated at cannot possibly be taking the detail of the chance into account. Is it just working on the location that the shot is taken from, and not factoring in where the defenders are, whether the striker is stretching to reach the ball or well under control etc?

Back to that chance at Sutton. I watched the video again last night. It really could not have been a simpler finish if he'd taken it with his left foot. Literally an open goal. And it was coming to him just right to meet it with his left foot. Instead he's actually readjusted his step to let the ball come across onto his right foot. That has given the defender coming in on his blindside the chance to make the block.

One such instance of that reluctance to use his left foot would be a worry. But it's not even the most glaring instance this season, after that scarcely believable one at Rochdale. I don't suppose anyone has the stats but I'd be fascinated to see just how often he has shot with his left foot this season.

Point being that if we could work on his confidence with his left foot, I genuinely think he would be a 20 goal a season striker. He does get into excellent positions, but the finishing is letting him down.

[Bailey Vickerage]

Have we replaced Tomlin as the main provider of chances from midfield?, no we haven’t.
The manager plays wingers that cut inside so no crosses into the box. We haven’t had a regular assist midfielder behind the strikers.
So Miller has to somehow score from long punts up the field. He has to battle 2-3 centre halves on his own. Is it any wonder he isn’t scoring goals?

the wing backs provide the width for us and they’re the ones putting in most of the crosses, brown especially has put in a lot since he joined, Maxwell likes to come inside if the chance is there but if he does do that hurst normally stays wide.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Have we replaced Tomlin as the main provider of chances from midfield?, no we haven’t.
The manager plays wingers that cut inside so no crosses into the box. We haven’t had a regular assist midfielder behind the strikers.
So Miller has to somehow score from long punts up the field. He has to battle 2-3 centre halves on his own. Is it any wonder he isn’t scoring goals?

the wing backs provide the width for us and they’re the ones putting in most of the crosses, brown especially has put in a lot since he joined, Maxwell likes to come inside if the chance is there but if he does do that hurst normally stays wide.

Maxwell put the cross in for that Miller chance at Sutton.

This is what the chance looked like by the way. That's the moment Miller would have been making contact with the ball if he'd stepped onto it to strike with his left foot. Excellent attacking play, and very, very good striker's instinct from Miller to find space. Just the left foot thing...

[EasyforDennis]

Confirms my post at the time that he didn't have a shot blocked. He missed an open goal giving the defender behind him the opportunity to clear the ball.

[sedwardsdrfc]

Is xG then just a expectation of for example all shots taken from that spot how many score? Does if account for position the player who shoots is I.e. more chance of a striker than a defender scoring. And does it take account of playing level? I’d expect prem players to have higher scores than L2 where you need more chances to score per goal normally.

I suppose this is all in the data somewhere but if we’re saying so and so has good/bad xG and basing opinions off that it’d be good to know the numbers aren’t skewed by these types of thing.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Decent article here which I think answers my questions.

https://jobsinfootball.com/blog/what-is-expected-goals-xg/#:~:text=xG%20is%20calculated%20using%20a,scale%20between%200%20and%201.

Key sections:
One thing that's important to note is that different xG models can be used by different organisations and competitions. Each model has its own characteristics, although they generally all rely on the same major factors: distance to goal, angle to goal, body part with which the shot is taken, plus the type of assist or prior action (eg. cross, through-ball, set-piece, short pass, dribble etc.) Models use all the information they have on shots with similar characteristics to come up with a mathematical value relating to how much a player would be expected to score the relevant chance.

...

There are limitations in terms of the data available. For instance, there's a lack of information on the exact state of play when a shot is taken. As the years go on and the data continues to get better, these limitations will gradually be removed or at least reduced.



That's kind of what I thought. So Miller's miss against Rochdale will have been graded as "20 yards out, shot, player running with ball". For which I'd guess you'd expect a goal maybe once in ten? Whereas in fact it was an absolutely open net and if taken with the left foot, you'd expect a goal 19 times out of 20.

Similarly with the Sutton chance. Shot from cross in front of goal 4 yards out might be xG=0.3. But factor in the goalkeeper being 6 yards off to the side, no defender either in front to block or making a challenge and it would be xG=0.95.

I guess the idea is that over a season, these factors even out. I'm not sure that's the case with Miller though, where he has frequently created or got on the end of really good chances and fluffed them because of the left foot thing. I'd say with the chances he's made, I'd expect a decent finisher to be scoring every other game (xG = 0.5).

[drfchound]

I would say that a striker who scores every other game is considerably better than being a decent finisher.
There aren’t many players who have a scoring record of a goal every other game.

[Janso]

Confirms my post at the time that he didn't have a shot blocked. He missed an open goal giving the defender behind him the opportunity to clear the ball.

So by giving the defender the chance to get in a block, he didn't have a shot blocked? staggering logic.

Yes, he should have buried it, but there's some impressive mental gymnastics going on there.