Local Election Results

[BillyStubbsTears]

Early results from Sunderland are interesting.

Looks like the voters Labour lost to UKIP are returning to Labour in droves. Exactly what Labour needs if they are going to win next year.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Plus there's early evidence of tactical voting between Lab and LD taking seats off the Tories. Both ways.

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1654260983664189451?s=20

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1654260701135884290?s=20

[bpoolrover]

It's a strange at the moment, quite a few of my friends who vote Tory won't be to disappointed if labour get in power under starmer, not that they particularly like him but see the Labour Party as very centre ground, back on topic it will be interesting to see how much of the UKIP vote went to labour and how much went to reform

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think it's clear that the conservatives have mostly ran out of ideas and need that change, probably not surprising after 15 years with Brexit and COVID thrown in, if labour can't turn it round now they never will.

I suspect it'll be tighter come the next election of course (turnouts are tiny for example) and a general election is very different.

Mind, Starmer will probably have changed all his pledges again by then.

[selby]

  Although the Tories are taking a thumping, the results at the moment are showing that there would be a hung parliament in a general election, Labour's lead showing  only a 8% lead now not the double digit of a short time ago and still time and budgets to come.
  Something for both parties to cling to, and Starmer the Conservatives big bonus who will ship the flack with his other front benches in the last six months before an election.
  I am confident that they will get the Johnson treatment labour dished out when the run in to the election really starts, and Rishi etc. will keep a low profile.
  The use of heavy artillery used at the right time is usually the defining factor in a war, use it too early and it loses traction.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Unless Labour appoint Dickov or Ferguson they should win at a canter.  The bigger challenge for them is actually delivering what they say they'll deliver, not easy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Unless Labour appoint Dickov or Ferguson they should win at a canter.  The bigger challenge for them is actually delivering what they say they'll deliver, not easy.

Politics ain't like that. No party ever wins any election at a canter.

Because the Tories have been so shockingly off the rails under Johnson and Truss, it's easy to underestimate the scale of the task that Starmer has in order to win next year.

In 2019, the Tories had an 80 seat majority. They won 165 seats more than Labour. Labour had its worst GE performance for 90 years - earlier in 2019, they had won 13% of the vote in the EU elections.

13%!

There were serious questions asked over whether Labour had a future as one of the two major parties.

Coming back from that starting point isn't a given, regardless of the shitshow of a Tory party that faces them. The scale of the turn round that Labour needs to gain a majority of ONE next year hasn't been seen in a General Election since 1924.

Some perspective needed here. If labour DOES win a majority next year it will be one of the biggest electoral successes in UK history.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Although I'd say under Johnson/Truss one of the biggest failures in UK history of the party in power moreso than a labour reset.  I do think the only opportunity the Tories have is (and the polling on this will be something to watch) that I get a feeling that labour support is quite fragile and you're right it is still a tough ask for them certainly to get to a majority, as much as a lot of those who voted Tory in 2019 will be very disillusioned with the last 3.5 years.  That and I actually think Sunak's done a fairly decent job as leader so far.  I question if he can turn that around enough by the end of next year though.

I do wonder though with where labour has moved are traditional labour supporters happy with the policies and positioning on a lot of things right now?  Yeah they'll always be happy to slate the Tories etc but I do wonder if the policies labour under Starmer have are something the hard line labour supporters can stomach.

[Branton Red]

Early results from Sunderland are interesting.

Looks like the voters Labour lost to UKIP are returning to Labour in droves. Exactly what Labour needs if they are going to win next year.

This really shouldn't be a surprise. The reason these voters opted for UKIP was their personal view on one solitary issue not because they'd swung politically, and definitely not economically, from Left to Right.

Hence why they voted UKIP rather than Tory. Speaking generally they couldn't bring themselves to vote Tory. Dislike of the Tories still runs deep in many Red Wall seats. So long as Labour keeps Europe off the table such voters, presented with a binary Tory/Labour choice, will mostly opt for Labour regardless of what they may think of it's leadership.

[wilts rover]

The thing everyone needs to take away from these results is that 75% of the country don't like the Tories and are working out the best way of getting rid of them. They dont care who will make up the next government - as long as it isn't them and they have as few MP's as possible.

[bpoolrover]

The thing everyone needs to take away from these results is that 75% of the country don't like the Tories and are working out the best way of getting rid of them. They dont care who will make up the next government - as long as it isn't them and they have as few MP's as possible.
[/quote I know so many people who didn't vote or voted independent around this area, I think people are fed up of politics not just the tories

[tyke1962]

Although I'd say under Johnson/Truss one of the biggest failures in UK history of the party in power moreso than a labour reset.  I do think the only opportunity the Tories have is (and the polling on this will be something to watch) that I get a feeling that labour support is quite fragile and you're right it is still a tough ask for them certainly to get to a majority, as much as a lot of those who voted Tory in 2019 will be very disillusioned with the last 3.5 years.  That and I actually think Sunak's done a fairly decent job as leader so far.  I question if he can turn that around enough by the end of next year though.

I do wonder though with where labour has moved are traditional labour supporters happy with the policies and positioning on a lot of things right now?  Yeah they'll always be happy to slate the Tories etc but I do wonder if the policies labour under Starmer have are something the hard line labour supporters can stomach.

Not entirely sure if there is such a thing as a traditional Labour voter anymore .

[tyke1962]

The thing everyone needs to take away from these results is that 75% of the country don't like the Tories and are working out the best way of getting rid of them. They dont care who will make up the next government - as long as it isn't them and they have as few MP's as possible.

Bring in PR and we'd never see them again in government .

[Donnywolf]

Yes because the 33% of people who didn't vote in GE or Ref might realise ( or maybe wouldn't have the excuse ) that their vote doesn't count.

PR wise it WOULD count and if Greens got 10% of votes nationwide they would get 65 ish Seats becoming a big player overnight

Next Election assuming they had done ok / well others may think I will give the Green Party a "go" and their vote share goes to 15 % and Seats to 97 ish

People would see their Votes under PR DO count as now of course the Greens have just one Seat (Brighton Pavilion) after getting almost 3% Nationwide in 2019 which under PR would have given them 18 ish Seats (all approx of course)

Same of course for all other Parties as well and perhaps less extremism from wherever it comes

[wilts rover]

The thing everyone needs to take away from these results is that 75% of the country don't like the Tories and are working out the best way of getting rid of them. They dont care who will make up the next government - as long as it isn't them and they have as few MP's as possible.

Bring in PR and we'd never see them again in government .

The Labour Party will never bring in PR because that would mean the end of the Labour Party. It's made up of a coilition of people who have absolutely nothing in common with one another. Now a minor Labour adminsitration with a large LibDem/Green/SNP presence - that would be interesting.

[wilts rover]

Of the total number of councils up for election where the Tories had overall control before voting started - they lost 60% of them:

https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1654592558553604096

[Superspy]

On the point of the Greens. I don't really know enough about how much power council's have to embed their own policy if they're of a different party to that in government.

Does the Green's taking control of a council outright give them the opportunity to showcase what they're all about in a way they haven't been able to before, by focusing on things like more requiring homes to be more efficient and helping people making those improvements, diverting money to more EV charging infrastructure projects, etc etc?

I suppose what I'm asking is, what is within a local council's area of control in contrast to central government and could we now see Mid Suffolk being used to set an example of what the Green's want to achieve?

[tyke1962]

Well we are certainly in " Anybody But The Tories " territory I'll say that .

Although I'd quit the arrogance and the next GE election is in the bag if I were Keith .

I remember Kinnock thinking the 92 GE was a shoe in and getting carried away despite everything pointing to a Labour victory , we all know how that turned out .

Not entirely convinced as yet Labour will win a majority by any means , I reckon they could be 10 to 15 seats short .

Different ball game council elections and a GE and there's still time for Sunak to bite in to the Labour lead in the Opinion Polls .

I wouldn't be dusting down the 12" version of " Things Can Only Get Better " just yet .

[Donnywolf]

Yes the Kinnock celebration in (was it) Sheffield was a stupid thing to do

Best to say , you've won when you've won

[Bentley Bullet]

.....And better still if meanwhile, you can get your excuses in should you lose, like the Britain Surrendering Together party is doing!

[BillyStubbsTears]

.....And better still if meanwhile, you can get your excuses in should you lose, like the Britain Surrendering Together party is doing!

The absolute state of you.

Do you ever read what you're typing and think, "should I?" before you hit POST?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes the Kinnock celebration in (was it) Sheffield was a stupid thing to do

Best to say , you've won when you've won

I was there that day. It wasn't a celebration. It was an event aimed at enthusing party workers to get out campaigning.

Yes there was music. Yes there was applause. But it was aimed at making people feel excited about the possibility of getting a Labour government.

The vast majority of the event was a series of sober, serious policy speeches. There was just a few minutes of Kinnock getting the crowd stirred up.

What it absolutely wasn't was a celebration that the job was done. It was a "We are in a strong position, get some fire in your belly and let's win" message.

I was genuinely shocked to see how it was portrayed on the news that evening and in the papers. And that total misrepresentation has gone down as historical fact.

What it showed me was that Labour would always have to be whiter than white in how it presented itself. With hindsight, that Sheffield rally  was naive in that it gave easy-to-misrepresent media footage.

[Donnywolf]

Thanks for the explanation , obviously I wasn't there and fell into the MSM "trap" as outlined in your last 2 paras

[tyke1962]

Yes the Kinnock celebration in (was it) Sheffield was a stupid thing to do

Best to say , you've won when you've won

I was there that day. It wasn't a celebration. It was an event aimed at enthusing party workers to get out campaigning.

Yes there was music. Yes there was applause. But it was aimed at making people feel excited about the possibility of getting a Labour government.

The vast majority of the event was a series of sober, serious policy speeches. There was just a few minutes of Kinnock getting the crowd stirred up.

What it absolutely wasn't was a celebration that the job was done. It was a "We are in a strong position, get some fire in your belly and let's win" message.

I was genuinely shocked to see how it was portrayed on the news that evening and in the papers. And that total misrepresentation has gone down as historical fact.

What it showed me was that Labour would always have to be whiter than white in how it presented itself. With hindsight, that Sheffield rally  was naive in that it gave easy-to-misrepresent media footage.

I only saw the tv footage I'll admit but even so it came across as a bit American and bullish , I cringed to tell the truth .

When Blair was fighting the 97 election they'd clearly learned the lesson and toned it down even though they knew they were going to win with a thumping majority .

Another big Tory scandal wouldn't go amiss if that majority is going to be gained in my opinion Billy .

The word may well be show a united front in the Tory camp as we edge nearer the GE but this lot just can't help themselves .

[drfchound]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

[tyke1962]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

The Tories are polling consistently at around 28% what looks to be happening is that it's the Dems who have picked up a little and eaten in to the potential Labour vote .

That suggests Labour could be the biggest Party but short of a working majority as things are looking at the moment and this pattern continues .

I personally think Labour have probably regained the Red Wall vote but the Dems are eating in to the Tory shires .

If we see this at the GE then Keith is going to have to strike a deal with the Dems , either a coalition or some giveaways in return for the Dems support in parliament .

I suspect PR would be one of them and maybe rejoining the Single Market .

[bpoolrover]

The crunch time will be when starmer has to actually say what labour will do, he has played it perfectly so far by not saying much amd leaving the tories to self implode, but at some point soon he will have to lay his actual policies out

[Glyn_Wigley]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

The Tories are polling consistently at around 28% what looks to be happening is that it's the Dems who have picked up a little and eaten in to the potential Labour vote .

That suggests Labour could be the biggest Party but short of a working majority as things are looking at the moment and this pattern continues .

I personally think Labour have probably regained the Red Wall vote but the Dems are eating in to the Tory shires .

If we see this at the GE then Keith is going to have to strike a deal with the Dems , either a coalition or some giveaways in return for the Dems support in parliament .

I suspect PR would be one of them and maybe rejoining the Single Market .

The other big factor is what is going to happen in Scotland - will the mess the SNP is getting into make them lose seats, and probably to Labour? That might mean Labour wouldn't need another party's support after the GE.

The other thing is I'd be surprised if the LibDems would want to go into a coalition after the experience of the last time they did so ruining them as a party of protest - how can you protest by voting LibDem if they're part of the government you're protesting about? That's the main reason they were decimated in 2015. If Labour need LibDem support I think it would more likely be on a confidence and supply basis.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

The crunch time will be when starmer has to actually say what labour will do, he has played it perfectly so far by not saying much amd leaving the tories to self implode, but at some point soon he will have to lay his actual policies out

No he has. Proper windfall tax, that's solving everything isn't it?

[tommy toes]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

Then why don't you give us YOUR opinion then hound, instead of lighting the fire for others as per usual.