Local Election Results

[albie]

It is misleading to infer too much from local elections, where disgruntled Tories will vent their annoyance at the national party through local scapegoats.

That said, the local elections this time only cover 40% of the country, so do not show the whole picture anyway.
I think the Tories will think they need to avoid internal division and batten down for a GE at the very end of the permitted period, allowing as much time for recovery as possible.

The worrying thing for Labour is the trendline back from the previous high standing.
Once a lead drops to 9 points or lower, we are in hung parliament territory in a GE, subject to the disposition of votes in particular areas.

Softer voting allegiance is becoming more common, and this flexibility will be exploited by dark money influence for a GE, not really a factor in the locals.

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's not been that much movement in the polls. At New Year Labour were about 20 points ahead. The last 10 polls have them about 16.5 points ahead. Still a long way up on where things were before Truss set fire to the economy.

Sunak has produced a small increase in Tory support after the Truss disaster, which was inevitable once they got a leader who looked like his brain was actually functioning as his lips moved.

But the current polls are at a level where the side in front usually wins the up coming election. 18 months before the  1992 election, Lab and Con were more or less neck and neck. 18 months before 2015, Labour were 5-6% ahead.

Not that anything is guaranteed, but there's not many signs of economic good news on the horizon, more's the pity, so there's still a huge gap for Sunak to make up.

The analyses of Thursday's results putting Lab on 35 and the LDs on 20 are meaningless in General Election terms. The LDs always do better in local elections because they can win seats. Voters know that if they want to get the Tories out next year, they only have one choice in most seats. A few hard-line Corbynistas will refuse to vote Labour, I'm sure, but even yesterday, after the LDs had done so well in the council elections, a poll had Lab on 48 and the LDs on 7. Barring some very big upheaval, I don't see anything like 35/20 happening next Autumn.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

It's true that the raw numbers in local elections shouldn't be looked at too closely.

But equally, it's wrong to refuse to take any message from them. The fact that the Tories were hit so hard, so close to the next GE is a major message. And an even bigger one is Labour's strong recovery in the Red Wall seats. That suggests that Labour will be favourite to win back most if not all of the ones they lost in 2019, at the same time that they are recovering strongly in Southern and Midlands urban areas. If they repeat anything like that in those areas next year, and retain the big city seats, that's the recipe Labour needs for a majority, even before you factor in the SNP implosion.

[Donnywolf]

Someone "Blue" is taking them seriously as I have already seen mention of a "movement" to remove Sunak because he has failed as PM and replace him with ?

Johnson.

Well that would be interesting wouldn't it , but goes to show ( though not prove of course ) that someone IS taking note of the results whether raw data or not

[tyke1962]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

The Tories are polling consistently at around 28% what looks to be happening is that it's the Dems who have picked up a little and eaten in to the potential Labour vote .

That suggests Labour could be the biggest Party but short of a working majority as things are looking at the moment and this pattern continues .

I personally think Labour have probably regained the Red Wall vote but the Dems are eating in to the Tory shires .

If we see this at the GE then Keith is going to have to strike a deal with the Dems , either a coalition or some giveaways in return for the Dems support in parliament .

I suspect PR would be one of them and maybe rejoining the Single Market .

The other big factor is what is going to happen in Scotland - will the mess the SNP is getting into make them lose seats, and probably to Labour? That might mean Labour wouldn't need another party's support after the GE.

The other thing is I'd be surprised if the LibDems would want to go into a coalition after the experience of the last time they did so ruining them as a party of protest - how can you protest by voting LibDem if they're part of the government you're protesting about? That's the main reason they were decimated in 2015. If Labour need LibDem support I think it would more likely be on a confidence and supply basis.

I take your point about the SNP in meltdown but the Scottish Nationalist and Pro EU voters still exist in Scotland and Labour haven't got that covered .

A Farage style Scotland First impact party could emerge and considerably challenge the potential Labour vote up there .

All speculation on my part I'll admit but none the less there's not a right lot in it for the Nationalist Scottish voter to tick the Labour box on election day other than to be rid of the Tories down in England .

[roverstillidie91]

Albie.

It's true that the raw numbers in local elections shouldn't be looked at too closely.

But equally, it's wrong to refuse to take any message from them. The fact that the Tories were hit so hard, so close to the next GE is a major message. And an even bigger one is Labour's strong recovery in the Red Wall seats. That suggests that Labour will be favourite to win back most if not all of the ones they lost in 2019, at the same time that they are recovering strongly in Southern and Midlands urban areas. If they repeat anything like that in those areas next year, and retain the big city seats, that's the recipe Labour needs for a majority, even before you factor in the SNP implosion.

The reason Labour have got more seats is due to tactical voting.

I still don't believe Labour will get a majority for the next general election.

More voters will opt for Lib Dems, Independents, Green Party etc

[tyke1962]

Someone "Blue" is taking them seriously as I have already seen mention of a "movement" to remove Sunak because he has failed as PM and replace him with ?

Johnson.

Well that would be interesting wouldn't it , but goes to show ( though not prove of course ) that someone IS taking note of the results whether raw data or not

I don't think it matters who the Tories replace Sunak with because in my opinion they are a busted flush .

At the very best they would be the biggest Party but no overall majority and this time there isn't anyone who will prop them up for another five years given they've burned all their bridges .

The question in my opinion is the size of the Labour victory , a majority government or as I believe 10 to 15 seats short .

What are Labour going to have to giveaway to attract partners to prop themselves up in government or indeed how long would such an agreement last , would it hold for five years ?

Labour could get a majority if their manifesto stands up and they come out to play and people see change and are enthused .

The stay at homes on election day , the disenfranchised is the thing that would prevent them gaining a majority in my opinion .

[drfchound]

I would be interested to hear what anyone thinks about the alarming drop in the Labour lead in recent polls.
When they had a twenty odd point lead recently it was mentioned a few times on here but not much has been said recently about the current position.

Then why don't you give us YOUR opinion then hound, instead of lighting the fire for others as per usual.

Tommy, I don’t have an opinion on it.
However I am always interested to read what others think about certain aspects of politics.
Two or three posters over the last year or so have preached about the size of the Labour lead and as it appears now to have been cut in half (despite BSTs effort to convince us that it hasn’t) I thought it would be good to hear what the better informed on here might think now that a Labour GE majority victory is a bit less certain.
By the way, I’m not sure why you would suggest I was lighting a fire for others.
I was just asking for opinions.
Anyway, some posters have already provided them so thanks to them for that.
As a staunch Labour man, what do you think about the current poll situation?

[albie]

Billy,

Your post 31 above, in reply to me, makes a false equivalence between opinion based projection and evidence based extrapolation.

The variable polling is not relevant to what is under discussion.
You are confusing how people say that they might vote, with how people have actually voted...a very different beast.

The relevant metric from the locals is projected national share, based on the whole country replicating the votes cast in the locals across the whole country.
This is simply describing where we are now, based upon the recent results.

The Tories fell 2 points from the 2019 position, to 26%. Labour increased from 2019 by 7 to 35 points, a lead of 9 points overall.
A further issue is that votes lost by the Tories are fractured, not going to a single opposition like Labour, but distributed around to LD and Greens.

If it persists, this is at the margin of a hung parliament, again dependent upon concentration of votes in specific areas, and crucially, voter turn out.
As we have no indication of likely turnout, much else is speculation.

Polls cannot tell you the impact of dark money influence on social media in the critical pre-election period.
This is what will steer pliable voting intentions at the GE....unless those behind the dark money conclude that Starmer is no threat to their interests.
After all, red and blue parties offering similar right wing policy options is a distinction without a difference.

What we do know reliably is that the voting system can be corrupted within narrow boundaries, and will be open to exploitation by bad actors.
That was clear in the referendum, and in the subsequent GE campaigns.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating Albie.

When, under Corbyn in 2019, Labour got 13% in a national election, I was told to ignore it because it wasn't representative.

Quite happy to have a deal with you.

If the LDs get 20% and Lab 35% in the GE next year, I'll apologise profusely and never comment again on polls.

I'll say again. That breakdown of Thursday's results into a national projection is worthless, because in local elections, people who really want the Tories out know that they can safely vote LD or Green. Next year, apart from in maybe 10-15% of seats, they can't do that. Which is precisely why the national opinion polls asking how people would vote tomorrow in a GE are consistently showing Lab on mid-40s and LD around 10 if they are lucky.

And once again, I don't need lecturing on the fact that doesn't guarantee how the votes will go in 18 months. It shows the state of play now. It may change, of course. But you trying to insist it doesn't mean anything is silly. It's what someone who wants to convince themselves that Labour aren't in a much better spot with the electorate than ever they were under Corbyn would do. It's perhaps what someone who would hope Labour loses next year would do.

[wilts rover]

Some people appear to be caught up with commentators obsessions rather than actual facts. Go have a look at the 2019 local election results and how they corellated to the GE, 7 months later.

For example, LD's - 19% in May, 12% in December.

In 2019 the Tories had one of their worst set of LE results ever with 25% of the vote. Last Thursday they were a 1/3rd worse than that - with 26% of the vote.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

EVERYTHING changed between the LA elections and the GE in 2019. Johnson was selected as Tory leader and pulled millions of voters back to the Tories who had supported Farage in the LA elections.

Labour faced the challenge that the LDs were presenting them over Brexit and embraced Ref2.

Both were the obvious steps for each party. One of them was the obvious way of winning a crushing victory at the GE. The other was the obvious way of avoiding total catastrophe.

Some of us in May 2019 were predicting precisely that outcome and we're regularly told we were talking nonsense.   

[drfchound]

There's not been that much movement in the polls. At New Year Labour were about 20 points ahead. The last 10 polls have them about 16.5 points ahead. Still a long way up on where things were before Truss set fire to the economy.

Why is Robert Peston telling us on the news that Labours lead is now around 7 to 9 percent from the 20% it was in January.

[albie]

Billy,

So embracing Ref2 was the way Labour avoided catastrophe?
Are you just taking the p*ss?

You reckon the reason Leave voters in the former Red Wall wanted Labour to campaign for Ref2.

I see Keith has ruled out removing the Public Order Bill, which Labour could have opposed in the Lords;
https://twitter.com/i/status/1655983044157661184

This on top of ruling out increased tax on the top 5%.
How long are you going to cheerlead for this sh!t?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie.

I don't know how many times we have to go over this, but it looks like one more at least.

For every Red Wall voter that Labour eventually lost in 2019, they risked losing 4 younger, internationalist supporters until they finally embrace Ref2.

The fact you don't want that to be true doesn't make it any less true.

[albie]

There is zero evidence to support that claim that I am aware of, BST.

Perhaps you could provide some empirical evidence, or people might conclude you were making it up.
It wouldn't be the first time the voices in your head got the upper hand, so give us a reason to consider it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can Albie but you'll refuse to accept it because you don't think the polls mean anything

But it's a fact that, according to poll after poll, by August 2019, about 4-5 million people who voted Remain in 2016 and Labour in 2017 were supporting parties whose policies were to have Ref2 as a minimum.

By that time, Labour was close to the sort of historic tipping point where parties get sidelined. We were very close  to the point at which the tectonic plates shift and major re-arrangements in politics become feasible. As happened in the early 1920s when Labour overtook the Liberals as the second national party, and the Liberals fell into a minority position they have never recovered from.
Immediately after Labour adopted the Ref2 policy, the polls show supporters coming back from the LDs in droves.

But if you refuse to engage with the context of the polling evidence, I admit I'm wasting my time.

[albie]

Polling is not evidence, Billy...I have pointed that out before.
It is not to be disregarded either, close to a GE, provided that it is verified after the fact.

So go on then, give us a reference to a credible source who examined the issue (after the fact) and came to your conclusion?

Give me an explanation of how many seats were won by Labour as a result of the Ref2 position, set against the losses in the Red wall leave seats.

You are confusing the political dynamics of straight Tory/Labour battles in the red wall, with more dispersed voting patterns in southern seats, sometimes with 3 way splits.

Your argument seems to be from national assessments that a greater gain was made in those southern seats than the losses in the red wall.
We are not talking here about votes cast, but seats won.

Appealing to doubtful remainers in secure seats may increase a majority which would have been won anyway.
Pissing off Leave voters in the red wall carries a higher price in terms of seat loss....this seems unarguable to me.

No doubt you will want to argue it, but I have not seen a single account to support your view.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Your penultimate paragraph says it all Albie.

You assume that Labour were never going to lose those Remain seats.

Go and do what I've done.

Go and look at the results of the 2019 election, seat by seat.

Go and look at how many seats Labour won, but would have lost had they proportion of the supporters who had switched their affections to the LDs by Summer 2019 stayed the same.

I've crunched those numbers. Labour stood to lose over 100 seats.

And the Red Wallers weren't coming back. We've been through this before and you steadfastly refused to face it. The Red Wall deserters had left Labour well before the adoption of Ref2 as a formal policy. I've asked you times many and you've ignored it an equal number of times: What was Labour supposed to do by Summer 2019 that would have won back supporters who had gone to Johnson via Farage, without losing 3 times as many to the LDs?

As I say, Labour stood on the edge of a historic collapse by September 2019. 23% in the polls. The Tories rallied behind Johnson.  Corbyn, the most unpopular major party leader in history. 10% of 2017 Lab/2016 Leave voters saying they were voting for Farage or Johnson. 39% of 2017 Lab/2016 Remain saying they were not going to vote Labour.

A historic collapse happening right before your eyes.

Oh yeah. But your eyes won't look at that because it's not real, it's only polling.

Your eyes look at the Remain seats that Lab finally won in 2019, and insists it would have won them anyway.

Can't really counter that level of certain zealotry.

[River Don]

On the point of the Greens. I don't really know enough about how much power council's have to embed their own policy if they're of a different party to that in government.

Does the Green's taking control of a council outright give them the opportunity to showcase what they're all about in a way they haven't been able to before, by focusing on things like more requiring homes to be more efficient and helping people making those improvements, diverting money to more EV charging infrastructure projects, etc etc?

I suppose what I'm asking is, what is within a local council's area of control in contrast to central government and could we now see Mid Suffolk being used to set an example of what the Green's want to achieve?

York offers an interesting view of the greens. The result in York went against the trend of a green party in the ascendancy.

The council has been run by a green/lib Dem coalition for sometime. Over the last three years the green influence has really been felt. Anti car policies, roads closed, city centre car parking limited, more cycleways. It's caused frustration and anger for many.

And so to this election. While the lib Dems vote held up pretty well the greens lost all their seats, replaced by Labour who have taken control of the council.

It will be interesting to see if the Greens really can push their environmental agenda successfully in other areas.

It will also be interesting to see if Labour backtrack on the green initiatives  in York. There was a plan to shut Leeman Rd, a main route into the city. I wonder if this will still happen.

[Sprotyrover]

I doubt labour want to win the next Election, there is no Tory piggy bank to raid, no Gold bullion to sell off for historically low prices, no miners Pension fund to strip bare, no Pension Schemes to plunder! Just a very deep black hole in the countries Finances. I suppose they could try upping the Windfall tax but I have doubts about the feasibility of going down that road!

[turnbull for england]

On the point of the Greens. I don't really know enough about how much power council's have to embed their own policy if they're of a different party to that in government.

Does the Green's taking control of a council outright give them the opportunity to showcase what they're all about in a way they haven't been able to before, by focusing on things like more requiring homes to be more efficient and helping people making those improvements, diverting money to more EV charging infrastructure projects, etc etc?

I suppose what I'm asking is, what is within a local council's area of control in contrast to central government and could we now see Mid Suffolk being used to set an example of what the Green's want to achieve?

York offers an interesting view of the greens. The result in York went against the trend of a green party in the ascendancy.

The council has been run by a green/lib Dem coalition for sometime. Over the last three years the green influence has really been felt. Anti car policies, roads closed, city centre car parking limited, more cycleways. It's caused frustration and anger for many.

And so to this election. While the lib Dems vote held up pretty well the greens lost all their seats, replaced by Labour who have taken control of the council.

It will be interesting to see if the Greens really can push their environmental agenda successfully in other areas.

It will also be interesting to see if Labour backtrack on the green initiatives  in York. There was a plan to shut Leeman Rd, a main route into the city. I wonder if this will still happen.

I'm not a York resident, but they do seem to have got a good handle on transport links as a visitor. You can cycle in  from Riccal on byways only having to cross 1 road and park and ride is clean frequent and cost effective, for a city with infrastructure designed for carts in places that would appear to be a good thing

[River Don]

I would say they have done a decent job in York when it comes to transport. However it's an ongoing project. Labour have promised to reinstate blue badge parking in the centre, I think that's right and getting rid of it was a mistake.

I'm not sure about dueling the ring road. The traffic can be dreadful but I think the new capacity would soon become choked. New roads only attract more traffic. The problem is people are so attached to their cars, which is why I wonder if the new Green council's will really be able to push ahead with more traffic calming and such. It can be done, as the Netherlands shows but here?

[selby]

Yes Sproty, all things Labour did to the working man in their last tenure in No10, but you have to forget about that and that they closed the most collieries.
  To be fair they have always done well spending other peoples money, and are good socialists until other peoples money runs out.

[tyke1962]

There's not been that much movement in the polls. At New Year Labour were about 20 points ahead. The last 10 polls have them about 16.5 points ahead. Still a long way up on where things were before Truss set fire to the economy.

Why is Robert Peston telling us on the news that Labours lead is now around 7 to 9 percent from the 20% it was in January.

There's a good number of opinion polls Hound probably well over a dozen .

Some vary and I've seen myself the one giving Labour a 9 point lead and Peston has decided to use that one , he could easily have chosen the one where the lead is 20 points but for one reason or another he decided to pick that one .

As a general rule if you find the poll with the lowest lead and the one with the highest then go middle for diddle and you'll generally not be too far away .

[tyke1962]

Looks like Labour took a bit of a kicking in Winsford , lost control of the council to a new party made up of fairly ordinary people .

https://youtu.be/r0AyOIetBts

[BillyStubbsTears]

How do you define "fairly ordinary people" Tyke? The woman in that video was a Labour councillor in 2019. It takes about 10 seconds on Google to find a photo of Corbyn campaigning with her in that election.

https://www.alamy.com/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-with-labour-candidate-mandy-clare-meeting-locals-during-canvassing-in-winsford-while-on-the-local-election-campaign-trail-image243757476.html

I think someone is spinning a line here.

[tyke1962]

How do you define "fairly ordinary people" Tyke? The woman in that video was a Labour councillor in 2019. It takes about 10 seconds on Google to find a photo of Corbyn campaigning with her in that election.

https://www.alamy.com/labour-leader-jeremy-corbyn-with-labour-candidate-mandy-clare-meeting-locals-during-canvassing-in-winsford-while-on-the-local-election-campaign-trail-image243757476.html

I think someone is spinning a line here.

They secured 14 seats Billy , you've highlighted just one .

[BillyStubbsTears]

I've highlighted the only one l know about. The one who is in the video you posted. The video where she never once said anything about being Labour Councillor.

That's enough to put big question marks over this "Ooh, were just normal apolitical local people" line in my mind. If you want to swallow it, fill yer boots.

[tyke1962]

I've highlighted the only one l know about. The one who is in the video you posted. The video where she never once said anything about being Labour Councillor.

That's enough to put big question marks over this "Ooh, were just normal apolitical local people" line in my mind. If you want to swallow it, fill yer boots.

Swallowing what Billy , they took control of Winsford Council from Labour in a free and democratic vote .

Which equates to more people voting for them than they did for Labour who previously controlled the town .

If the women you highlighted had or still has links to Jeremy Corbyn then clearly it didn't do her any harm did it  ? .

I don't really think you can come out of this too well Billy .

Either a group of Corbyn inspired ex Labour councillors who formed their own party beat Labour

Or

A group of pyssed off politically homeless ordinary people did .

If you can find some solace in Winsford Billy then good luck .