BST's final points predictor

[Chris Black come back]

February quite a critical month.

Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.

Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.

We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.

I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.

Giving this a bump. We maintained a 9 point lead on equal games with Forest Green, and a 7 point lead with us having game in hand on Sutton.

Now look at those February fixtures above. You would imagine that going into March the lead we had over both would not be any smaller than it is now.

[Filo]

Will we be getting the weekly update on this?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Will we be getting the weekly update on this?

Eventually, but my laptop crashed the other day and I'm still trying to restore it, so I don't have access to the spreadsheet at the moment.

[drfchound]

February quite a critical month.

Forest Green play Colchester, Mansfield, Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere.

Sutton play us, Morecambe, Wrexham, Bradford, Colchester and Notts County.

We have Sutton, Tranmere, Salford, Grimsby and Wimbledon.

I don’t see us winning too many but you would be hard pressed to imagine either Sutton or Forest winning more points in February than we do. If that is right, then the currently big gap will remain. That’s a big deal going into March.

Giving this a bump. We maintained a 9 point lead on equal games with Forest Green, and a 7 point lead with us having game in hand on Sutton.

Now look at those February fixtures above. You would imagine that going into March the lead we had over both would not be any smaller than it is now.

We have a home game on Saturday but then four away games out of the following five.
Given our poor away return I think we might be a bit closer to the drop than we are now.

[DearneValleyRover]

On another forum I’m on they do a similar spreadsheet for both promotion and relegation. It’s stating the predicted number of points required for safety is 34.

[drfchound]

Wow, 34 points to achieve safety is incredibly low isn’t it.
In our mini league of five you would expect that ourselves, Grimsby and Colchester should manage a further five points from 17 games.
Using the calculations in the predictor posted by BST we “only” need eight more points from those games.

[DearneValleyRover]

I thought so too but like Billy’s it’s been fairly accurate every year

[GazLaz]

Wow, 34 points to achieve safety is incredibly low isn’t it.
In our mini league of five you would expect that ourselves, Grimsby and Colchester should manage a further five points from 17 games.
Using the calculations in the predictor posted by BST we “only” need eight more points from those games.

Not saying BST is wrong, he’s good at these things, but I think the team finishing second bottom will get more points that. 37-38 maybe.

[pib]

I think BST said 37 for 23rd place to begin with to be fair. The 34 points figure came from a different model used on another forum it seems.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For what it's worth, it's not ME that will be right or wrong. It's a model that, for whatever reason, is usually reasonably accurate.

"Reasonably" is the key word there. Just because the model currently suggests 37 points for 23rd place, don't expect it to be exactly that. There's usually a +/- difference between the predictions this far out and the final tallies. Many times it's only +/-1 or so, but it can be higher. It's a probability thing, not a certainty thing. If the model is saying 37 at the moment, read it as meaning "Very, very unlikely to be 30 or 45, but increasingly less unlikely as you home in on 37".

But, as I say every year, this could be the year when it is way out. (I said that last year. Barring a couple of the top 12 places, it was very accurate.)

[Bailey Vickerage]

I said a few weeks ago that 35 points would be enough to keep u up this season, after seeing the bottoms 2s fixtures on another bread I still believe that.

FGR have made a few decent signings (Christian Doidge in particular) but with their remaining fixtures I can’t see them getting 15 points from their last 17 games.

[Chris Black come back]

They play each other on 16 March in the El Crapico.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the update after yesterday.

15th 63 59
16th 58 57
17th  56 57
18th 54 53
19th 48 50
20th 46 45
21st 42 43
22nd 42 43
23rd 37 34
24th 26 28

[DearneValleyRover]

The one on the other forum is saying 33 so pretty much identical

[Filo]

I reckon we’re almost there, would like a couple more wins though, to be on the safe side

[Silkscarf]

Bill, I probably ask the same question every season. But can you explain again why to finish 3rd bottom that team only ‘needs’ 35 points (or just 34 and better GD), but you have the club in that position on 43. Both can’t be correct can they?

I get that it’s what you’re predicting what the club in that position will actually achieve. But we’ve got 36 already therefore we’re safe based on your predictions?

Or if we finish on 36 we’re either 3rd bottom or 2nd bottom (as either position is within your error margin)?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Silk

The model is predicting how many points the sides finishing 24th, 23rd, 22nd etc WILL have at the end of the season.

So, simplistically, if the model says the side in 23rd will have 34 points and we have 36, you'd say we are probably safe already. We are unlikely to finish 23rd or 24th.

But that is a bit simplistic. Because no model is ever 100% accurate. It's safer to interpret the model as saying that the side in 23rd place will end the season with "approximately 24 points". How you interpret "approximately" is down to your own risk appetite.

[karldew]

After the last few games, could we now have a model version of predicted points for 12th-20th please.

[BillyStubbsTears]

After the last few games, could we now have a model version of predicted points for 12th-20th please.

Afraid not. I haven't got the time or energy to do that. And it's not important enough to make the time and find the energy.

[DearneValleyRover]

The other models relegation hasn’t been updated but the promotion part has, it’s forecasting 69 points for the playoffs

[normal rules]

The other models relegation hasn’t been updated but the promotion part has, it’s forecasting 69 points for the playoffs

33 points from 14 games for rovers. 2.35ppg

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the update after yesterday, with the extension to 11th, cos I already had the data as it happens.

11th          67
12th          65
13th          64
14th          63
15th 63 59 63
16th 58 57 62
17th 56 57 61
18th 54 53 60
19th 48 50 53
20th 46 45 51
21st 42 43 44
22nd 42 43 38
23rd 37 34 30
24th 26 28 29

Some big changes, since a lot of sides just outside the bottom 4 have hit a bit  of form. I suspect the figures for 15th to 20th will turn out to be a bit on the high side, and will drop back a bit over the next couple of weeks. Similarly, the figure for 23rd looks a bit at the lower end of what we'll eventually  see.

[normal rules]

Here's the update after yesterday, with the extension to 11th, cos I already had the data as it happens.

11th          67
12th          65
13th          64
14th          63
15th 63 59 63
16th 58 57 62
17th 56 57 61
18th 54 53 60
19th 48 50 53
20th 46 45 51
21st 42 43 44
22nd 42 43 38
23rd 37 34 30
24th 26 28 29

Some big changes, since a lot of sides just outside the bottom 4 have hit a bit  of form. I suspect the figures for 15th to 20th will turn out to be a bit on the high side, and will drop back a bit over the next couple of weeks. Similarly, the figure for 23rd looks a bit at the lower end of what we'll eventually  see.

For those with top half finish bets, rovers need to average 2ppg from here on in based on these stats. And by god wouldnt that be wonderful. Here’s hoping. (A lot)

[BillyStubbsTears]

Latest prediction (Note - I spotted an error in the previous post for 23rd place. Should have been 35, not 30 points and I've corrected it here.)

11th          67 67
12th          65 66
13th          64 63
14th          63 63
15th 63 59 63 58
16th 58 57 62 57
17th 56 57 61 56
18th 54 53 60 55
19th 48 50 53 53
20th 46 45 51 53
21st 42 43 44 46
22nd 42 43 38 43
23rd 37 34 35 37
24th 26 28 29 33

As expected, the predictions for 15-20th place have mostly settled down a bit. Prediction for last place has been rising, but the key one, 23rd place has been steady between 34-37 points. If that's right, we are safe already.

[Mike_F]

I reckon we'll finish with about 56 points. We could already be safe but that total would have us well clear of any last-minute jitters.

Regardless of where we finish now, the season as a whole has to go down as well below expectations. It's crucial to back Grant in the Summer. If he can add three or four or players of a similar quality to Adelakun throughout the team we'll be a force to be reckoned with.

[Alan Southstand]

Looking at the fixtures of both FGR & Sutton, I get them at 33 &34 points total. FGR would have to perform as table toppers until the end of the season, looking at their fixtures.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.

I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.

[Colin C No.3]

Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.

I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.

You can’t win ‘em all.

I’ll keep you reight.

[DearneValleyRover]

Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.

I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.

The other one on the other forum is also saying 40 points now so it’s not just yours

[GazLaz]

Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.

I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.

Couldn’t ever have been that low (know you were just sticking to previous workings out). I had it at 38 points for the second bottom team back then and I’d be happy sticking with that now still.