BST's final points predictor

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hand up from me. The model was crap this season for bottom of the table. Started off predicting 26 points. Now looking at 40 points.

I think that's the furthest it's ever been out in a dozen years of using it.

Couldn’t ever have been that low (know you were just sticking to previous workings out). I had it at 38 points for the second bottom team back then and I’d be happy sticking with that now still.

I had 37 points for second bottom, 8-9 weeks ago.

[Filo]

29th January this thread was started, we were all worried about not getting enough points to stay up, today, 10th April we are now looking at gate crashing the play offs, what a turn around!

[dickos1]

Looks like it was miles out on the 2nd bottom, 2nd bottom already on 38 with 5 games to go

[Filo]

Looks like it was miles out on the 2nd bottom, 2nd bottom already on 38 with 5 games to go

It’s an evolving model, doesn’t take i to account an upturn in form, on previous seasons it gets more accurate as time goes on, maybe the mistake made was looking at it so far out from the end of the season

[DonnyBazR0ver]

You can’t model these things. Predictably unpredictable which makes it all the more fascinating.

[Dutch Uncle]

Well known accepted quote in the world of modelling and simulation: 'All models are wrong, some are useful'

[Mike_F]

Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?

[Dutch Uncle]

Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?

Since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82, in the fourth tier the highest points for 23rd is 51 in 2012-13 and for 24th is 48 in 1986-87, 1998-99 and 2012-13

Using ppg for seasons of less than 46 games, the average over that time for bottom two places over 46 games is 42.96 and 37.55

Edit: Unsurprsingly the lowest for last place over that time is ................. us with 20 in the self destruct season of 1997-98

[idler2]

Anyone know what the record high points totals are for 24th and 23rd?

Since three points per win was introduced in 1981-82, in the fourth tier the highest points for 23rd is 51 in 2012-13 and for 24th is 48 in 1986-87, 1998-99 and 2012-13

Uisng ppg for seasons of less than 46 games, the average over that time for 23rd and 24th over 46 games is 42.96 and 37.55

I’m just glad that we are out of these calculations now.

[Mike_F]

No danger of any records being broken then. All the same the points totals for the bottom two look like they'll be some way above predictions.

[MachoMadness]

I do wonder if that 97-98 lowest points record will ever be beaten. Surely it will at some point, in this era of points deductions and financial craziness.

[Chris Black come back]

I know lots of clubs still get into financial trouble and I know governance needs to be improved still, but I really doubt anything in league football will ever be as shambolic in our lifetime, and hence a lower points total ‘achieved’. There was literally no oversight or restraint whatsoever on Richardson from the authorities, or the footballing authorities at least. I do not think half the stuff that went on would be tolerated today.

[Jonathan]

It amazes me that we got 20 points. As somebody that attended nearly all of the games home and away that season, I don’t look back and remember us coming away with that many results!

[Dutch Uncle]

I do wonder if that 97-98 lowest points record will ever be beaten. Surely it will at some point, in this era of points deductions and financial craziness.

It has been beaten in other leagues - e.g. recently Derby with 11 points in the Prem in 2007-08, Villa with 17 in 2015-16, and Huddersfield with 16 in 2018-19 of course in the lower number 38 games, and these had no points deductions

Stoke had 17 points in 42 games in the old Division 1 in 1984-85

It is not even our own lowest - we had 8 points at 2 per win (would have been 11 at 3 per win) in 34 games in 1904-05

I do believe our 20 points is the lowest number of points ever over a full 46 match season for any club in the top 4 divisions