We're in Recession. Oh Dear

[Not Now Kato]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/uk-recession-economy-sunak-business-gdp-news-b2496294.html

[selby]

  And I bet it made your day Kato dancing around the room.  Down to fall in electric car sales, and the downturn in the London economy because of the Congestion charge payment and working from home, Labour greed strikes again.

[Not Now Kato]

  And I bet it made your day Kato dancing around the room.

Far from it.  However, I remember your joyful post when it was announced Germany had gone into recession. IIRC, you blamed it on their membership of the EU.

[SydneyRover]

Writ large is the fact that those claiming to be the friends of business are the ones putting the economy to the sword and all the ramifications that go with it. So unnecessary, making it harder for everyone.

Fishing is good today kato?

[Not Now Kato]

Writ large is the fact that those claiming to be the friends of business are the ones putting the economy to the sword and all the ramifications that go with it. So unnecessary, making it harder for everyone.

Fishing is good today kato?

Too much water in the rivers at the moment Syd, makes the fishing practically impossible. We really need a week of very dry weather for them to fine down enough.

[selby]

  Have a good dance around you two, Japan is in recession down 2 point two points over the year to $42.5 trillion and have slipped from third to fourth.
  Germany at $46 trillion have moved to third although themselves having a reduced GDP.
  The USA $126 trillian and China $116 trillian are still first and second but India are expected to overtake both Germany and Japan once expected to be the top economy in the world not that long ago in the next few years and could be the best place to invest your savings. 

[ravenrover]

That's another of the 5 pledges gone to the wall then

[BillyStubbsTears]

Fascinating that the BBC have been steadfastly using the phrase "technical recession" all day, with the emphasis on the first word.

The standard definition of a recession is widely accepted as being 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. That's what we've had. Therefore it is a recession.

The word "technical" is entirely superfluous, but it does give the impression that this, somehow is not a "genuine" recession. It's only a "recession on a technicality".

Very odd that an unquestionably lefty-run organisation would give the Govt a helping hand like that...

[Not Now Kato]

That's another of the 5 pledges gone to the wall then

I'll give him that pledge 1 is still achievable, though I doubt he will achieve it
 

[Not Now Kato]

And here's a list detailing the state of our current inflation. 
 
The Office for National Statistics compiled the overall reading using the consumer prices index but also logs prices for individual goods and services. Here we look at how the cost of many of those everyday items has changed over the past year.
In each case, the figure is the percentage change in the average price over the 12 months to January.
Food

Olive oil 38.2%
Sugar 18%
Sauces and condiments 11.5%
Pork 13.1%
Pasta products and couscous 10.8%
Vegetables 8.9%
Eggs 7.2%
Fruit 7.1%
Ready-made meals 5.2%
Cheese and curd 2.5%
Bread 2.1%
Fish 1.5%
Jams, marmalades and honey -1.1%
Low-fat milk -6.1%
Butter -7.8%
Whole milk -10%
Drinks & Tobacco

Cocoa and powdered chocolate 25.1%
Fruit and vegetable juices 12.2%
Mineral or spring waters 10.7%
Tea 10.6%
Soft drinks 3.6%
Coffee 0.8%
Beer 9.2%
Wine 8%
Spirits 7.7%
Tobacco 16.1%
Electricity, gas and other fuels

Electricity -13%
Gas -26.5%
Solid fuels -4.1%
Liquid fuels -17.4%
Clothing and shoes

Garments for infants and children 7.4%
Garments for women 6.6%
Garments for men 4.6%
Footwear 2.6%
Household items and furniture

Cookers 5.6%
Carpets and rugs 0.2%
Garden furniture 0.2%
Lighting equipment -0.5%
Household furniture -1.5%
Vehicles and passenger transport

By bus and coach 10.2%
By sea and inland waterway 7.2%
By air 5.8%
By train 4.4%
New cars 3.3%
Bicycles -1.6%
Motorcycles -3.8%
Secondhand cars -5.9%
Petrol -6.4%
Diesel -13.8%
Hospitality and recreation

Holiday centres, campsites and youth hostels 19.5%
Restaurants and cafes 8.2%
Museums 8.3%
Fast food and takeaway food services 7%
Cinemas, theatres and concerts 6.9%
Hotels and motels 3.5%
Other recreational items

Veterinary and other services for pets 11.6%
Garden products 4.2%
Products for pets 3.9%
Games, toys and hobbies 1.2%

[danumdon]

You make it sound like we live in a void.

Have you noticed the rest of the developed world?

You sound like the kid that would run to tell his dad that his mum had been talking to the milkman!

[Not Now Kato]

You make it sound like we live in a void.

Have you noticed the rest of the developed world?

You sound like the kid that would run to tell his dad that his mum had been talking to the milkman!

Funny, you don't say things like that when people take pleasure in posting that countries such as Germany heve gone into recession.
 
And how do you think people on low wages or benefits feel about those inflation figures?
 
This country is in a mess, we have an ineffectual government, (other than them looking after themselves and their mates), and are now feeling the effects of Brexit!
 
You sound like someone who doesn't give a bugger about the less well off.

[ravenrover]

That's another of the 5 pledges gone to the wall then

I'll give him that pledge 1 is still achievable, though I doubt he will achieve it
 

NNK very generous on the 1st point, as I understand it reducing inflation is down to what action the BofE takes. What measures introduced by this or any other Govt has led to reducing inflation?

[Bentley Bullet]

It is a technical recession.

A recession is a sustained period of weak or negative growth in real GDP (output) accompanied by a significant rise in the unemployment rate. A technical recession, on the other hand, is a more specific term that refers to two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP.

[Sprotyrover]

Don’t worry Gang the ‘Cavalry’ is coming General Reeves just has to get Field Marshall Stammer from the very distant rear!

[drfchound]

It is a technical recession.

A recession is a sustained period of weak or negative growth in real GDP (output) accompanied by a significant rise in the unemployment rate. A technical recession, on the other hand, is a more specific term that refers to two consecutive quarters of negative growth in real GDP.

BB, does that mean that the BBC were right in speaking about a technical recession all morning.

[Bentley Bullet]

Technically yes, although while they're talking about that they're ignoring Labour's failings.

[drfchound]

Right, perhaps they are saving that rhetoric for next year then.

[wilts rover]

Caller on LBC to Alexander de Pfeffell Johnson in 2016: “If we vote Brexit and we go into recession, would you have the political courage, to go on TV and say sorry?”

Johnson: “Of course I will".

Anyone point me in the direction of where & when he has been on?

https://twitter.com/political_wasp/status/1758156128779670013

[Bentley Bullet]

Eeh, can't wait to replace Johnson and his Tory party with our saviour Starmer.

At last, we'll see the end of broken promises!

[Iberian Red]

Caller on LBC to Alexander de Pfeffell Johnson in 2016: “If we vote Brexit and we go into recession, would you have the political courage, to go on TV and say sorry?”

Johnson: “Of course I will".

Anyone point me in the direction of where & when he has been on?

https://twitter.com/political_wasp/status/1758156128779670013

He won't Wilts,why change the habit of a lifetime and tell the truth when he knows so many are so gullible and blind to know the truth.
A bit like his statement to the HoC that there were no parties at his house.

[River Don]

We are in recession because there was an absolutely massive spike in gas and energy prices and the effects of that are still working through the system.

The BoE have probably been a bit too aggressive with interest rates, the inflation has been falling back nattand they probably don't need to stamp down on it quite as aggressively as they have been lately.

Hunt claims recession is necessary to bring inflation under control. I'm not sure in this case that is true.

[SydneyRover]

''Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at Capital Economics, said "this recession is as mild as they come", adding that the data "is more politically significant than it is economically".

However, Lord Rose, chairman of Asda, the supermarket group, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "It looks like a duck, it quacks like a duck, it walks like a duck, it is a duck - it is a recession.

"There is no surprise here and I take no pleasure in saying there is no surprise that we're in it. We've got a low growth economy or a no growth economy."''

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68285833

No sign of the 'T' word

[Branton Red]

To repeat myself.

This yet again shows that the BoE were far too aggressive in increasing interest rates particularly in the early summer last year.

Wage growth data was already showing signs of cooling off at that stage, it was well known that the rate of inflation would be falling significantly in the second half of 2023 as the prior year's energy price increases dropped out of the calculation, and they failed to properly consider the delayed economic reaction of previous rate rises.

It is also shows the strength of impact of interest rate rises on the economy. How effective they can therefore be if used correctly and conversely how damaging if used incompetently.

Just consider the UK avoided recession in late 2022/early 2023 when inflation topped out in double digits and real incomes were falling considerably.

But we fall into recession in late 2023 with inflation falling towards 4% and record 50 year low (and falling) unemployment.

This shows the considerable impact of rising interest rates on reducing consumer spending by essentially making people poorer - particularly the less well off.

The BoE have essentially given the economy far too much medicine and we're suffering the consequences of said overdose.

[SydneyRover]

Interest rate adjustments are blunt instruments.

The truss effect and low growth would like be seen by the BoE as factors, if the economy is weak then it is more susceptible to outside influences.

[wilts rover]

Caller on LBC to Alexander de Pfeffell Johnson in 2016: “If we vote Brexit and we go into recession, would you have the political courage, to go on TV and say sorry?”

Johnson: “Of course I will".

Anyone point me in the direction of where & when he has been on?

https://twitter.com/political_wasp/status/1758156128779670013

He won't Wilts,why change the habit of a lifetime and tell the truth when he knows so many are so gullible and blind to know the truth.
A bit like his statement to the HoC that there were no parties at his house.

Surely you are not telling me a Tory PM is a liar, Iberian? But so many people here defend them & their party and will never hear of them criticised.

[Not Now Kato]

A guy on TV earlier today explained it thus….
 
We were told we have to put interests rates up to stop people spending so as to reduce inflation. Today we're told the reason we're in a recession is because people have cut back on spending.
 
You really couldn’t make it up!

[Bristol Red Rover]

What's needed are higher taxes on the rich to curb their spending and stop money leaking out of the country to offshores. THAT'S how you manage inflation without a recession.

[River Don]

What's needed are higher taxes on the rich to curb their spending and stop money leaking out of the country to offshores. THAT'S how you manage inflation without a recession.

The rich don't really spend. There are too few of them to make a difference anyway. What the rich do in an inflationary environment like this, is sit back and let their wealth accumulate at 5% thereabouts.

[SydneyRover]

Torsten Bell ............

''Torsten Bell, the chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said the recession news should serve as a wake-up call for the government and opposition parties in the run-up to the election. “We’ve got to do better than today’s debate about ludicrous tax cuts we can’t afford, and pencilled in spending cuts we can’t deliver,” he said.

The ONS said that over the course of 2023 the economy had essentially flatlined, expanding by just 0.1%. It was the weakest performance outside of the pandemic year of 2020 since the UK was gripped by the global financial crisis in 2009''

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/15/rishi-sunak-warned-against-fresh-austerity-drive-to-finance-tax-cuts

ludicrous tax cuts, hmmm