BST points prediction thread…

[DonnyOsmond]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.

Everything else he’s better than most in this league.

Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.

He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.

[Colemans Left Hook]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.

Everything else he’s better than most in this league.

Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.

He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.

talking of goalkeepers

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=292060.0

Managers can be very colour blind regarding goalkeepers abilities  --

when Clough was manager at Sheff United he kept playing a young goalkeeper called George Long who made continual mistakes and I kept telling people he was hopeless but the manager(s) couldn't see it  - took him 100 games to get rid

i think his father wrote his wikipedia page

[DearneValleyRover]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

In terms of shot stopping, one aspect of being a goalkeeper.

Everything else he’s better than most in this league.

Think of the howlers we’ve seen from other keepers this year.

He's better than we've had recently in the air, his kicking is alright but if he concedes easier shots than most from 12 yards out then that's a worry and will cost us points... It's the same as having a keeper in who's shit in the air and being targeted for it.

talking of goalkeepers

https://www.drfc-vsc.co.uk/index.php?topic=292060.0

Managers can be very colour blind regarding goalkeepers abilities  --

when Clough was manager at Sheff United he kept playing a young goalkeeper called George Long who made continual mistakes and I kept telling people he was hopeless but the manager(s) couldn't see it  - took him 100 games to get rid

i think his father wrote his wikipedia page

You are Brian the Blade and I claim my £5

[IDM]

Not really, I can just see points being dropped..

Bump.!

[IDM]

Our problem is how easy we are to score against. We are underperforming XGA by 11. TSL statistically is the second worst keeper in the league.

Shhh you're not allowed to criticise TSL.

 He wasn't the issue last night though.

Our xGA is currently 3rd lowest (which is a compliment to our defence), and it's very close between those 3, Wimbledon were the best by a distance but they've turned average recently. Wouldn't be surprised if we had the lowest xGA by the end of the season. However, then to actually have a mid table goals conceded record is alarming.

We're third for xG over the season too. For xPoints we're 2nd and we could potentially end up 1st with how Walsall are going. Bradford have been over performing their numbers.

xG and xGA etc in depth is all too much for us mere mortals - doesn’t change the result..

Mind you, I expect Swindon to turn up with their xTC perhaps..??

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

[GazLaz]

The winner likely to get around 84/85 points now.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep.

Haven't updated the model but it's clear those initial predictions are going to be big overestimates.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.

But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.

[NickDRFC]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

Whilst I don’t really want to defend dickos, it looked to me like he did accept the bet when he immediately replied with “Ok!…”

That’s how I read it, anyway.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

Whilst I don’t really want to defend dickos, it looked to me like he did accept the bet when he immediately replied with “Ok!…”

That’s how I read it, anyway.

Yep I'll accept that. Apologies for missing it.

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.

But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.

Which numbers were hopelessly wrong Billy?

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

Bowel cancer U.K. please

Cheers

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

And while you're raising that point Dickos, I'd have a lot more respect for you if you'd put your hand up yourself and accept that the numbers you quoted in that particular exchange were hopelessly wrong.

But I guess that would be asking a lot of you.

Which numbers were hopelessly wrong Billy?

You saying we'd averaged 1.9 ppg for the previous 20 games when the actual number was 1.75.

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

I'll have a bet with you.

If we average 2 points a game from here on in, we'll not finish in the top 4.

£20 to a charity of your choice.

This is looking like being significantly wide of the mark. Are you still confident that 84 points won’t make 4th place?

Shame you didn't take that bet when I offered it, eh?

For what it's worth, I'm still happy to honour it. Let me know the charity.

Bowel cancer U.K. please

Cheers

Will do when the season ends.

[dickos1]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

Highlighted text is factually wrong.

We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.

I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game

I did say at the time I could be wrong and asked you to correct me!

[BillyStubbsTears]

You wanted it. Here it is. Although you probably won't like it....

Remember, to save a lot of very tiresome arguing again, this is NOT predicting who will finish where. It's predicting how many points each final position will end up with. Nothing magic about it, but with a couple of exceptions, it's generally getting the finishing points tallies right to within a couple or 3 points for 15 years now.

So, here's this evening's prediction.

1st place: 90
2nd 89
3rd 88
4th 85
5th 85
6th 82
7th 75
8th 70
9th 69
10th 65

Bit of a bugger if that's anywhere near. It means we'd need to win 10 of our final 13 to make the top 3.

88 points feels high for 3rd place, but there are a lot of teams with already slightly better ppg than us, and similar recent form. Personally, I think we are going to struggle to make the top 3, and this confirms it. We still don't and never have consistently looked like clearly one of the top three sides this season.

But we’re currently 2nd, if we average 2 points a game then we will finish in the top 3,
Last 10 games were averaging 2.1and last 20 were averaging 1.9.
So the form we’re in and have been for 20 games now would be border line good enough, a light improvement and we’re there

Highlighted text is factually wrong.

We've averaged 1.75 ppg over the past 20 games. That isn't remotely close to the level likely to be needed to achieve a top 3 position this year.

I'll stick my neck out and say a side that averages 1.75ppg for the season this year might JUST squeak 6th place.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the first of 20 games was Bradford away, we’ve gained 38 points in those 20 games which equates to 1.9 points per game

I did say at the time I could be wrong and asked you to correct me!

I had already corrected you.

You restated the wrong number.

I corrected you again.

You didn't reply.

I've got many talents but mind reading whether folk accept facts when they don't say whether they do or not ain't one of them.

[pib]

Another round of fixtures where we've dropped points, but the damage could've been worse in terms of other results. Wimbledon winning wasn't ideal, but at least it was against another contender. The slight worry is Grimsby - might be a tall order but they're only six points off us with a game in hand, which is against Notts County, so it'd propel them into contention if they win that, with the form they're in.

SoccerStats 'relative form', which measures last 8 PPG vs season-to-date PPG, shows we've dropped below our season-average PPG in the last 8 games by 5% - 1.63 PPG in the last 8. Wimbledon and Notts are also down by 12% and 17% respectively though. I'm sure this will be reflected in BST's model with a drop off in expected points tallies for 3rd-5th.

Statistically our run-in is the 2nd toughest of the top 6, slightly - average PPG of remaining opponents 1.44 (Notts County's is 1.45). Wimbledon and PV have statistically easier runs, so could they string some form together? 3 of Vale's next 4 are at home against MK, Morecambe and Barrow, who have all averaged well under 1 point per game away from home over the season.

Their projected points table is now as follows:

Walsall: 85.57
Bradford: 83.13
Wimbledon: 80.13
Port Vale: 79.14
Rovers: 77.77
Notts: 74.62
Grimsby: 74.13

The games will level out tomorrow (except Port Vale), but as ever it's looking monumentally close, with a bit of an uptick needed from Rovers. Difficult to stress how important those home games against Wimbledon and Walsall will be, and probably Bradford as well.

[BigH]

Hmm, so 4 wins and a draw for the play offs. Six wins and a draw for auto?

[drfchound]

Another round of fixtures where we've dropped points, but the damage could've been worse in terms of other results. Wimbledon winning wasn't ideal, but at least it was against another contender. The slight worry is Grimsby - might be a tall order but they're only six points off us with a game in hand, which is against Notts County, so it'd propel them into contention if they win that, with the form they're in.

SoccerStats 'relative form', which measures last 8 PPG vs season-to-date PPG, shows we've dropped below our season-average PPG in the last 8 games by 5% - 1.63 PPG in the last 8. Wimbledon and Notts are also down by 12% and 17% respectively though. I'm sure this will be reflected in BST's model with a drop off in expected points tallies for 3rd-5th.

Statistically our run-in is the 2nd toughest of the top 6, slightly - average PPG of remaining opponents 1.44 (Notts County's is 1.45). Wimbledon and PV have statistically easier runs, so could they string some form together? 3 of Vale's next 4 are at home against MK, Morecambe and Barrow, who have all averaged well under 1 point per game away from home over the season.

Their projected points table is now as follows:

Walsall: 85.57
Bradford: 83.13
Wimbledon: 80.13
Port Vale: 79.14
Rovers: 77.77
Notts: 74.62
Grimsby: 74.13

The games will level out tomorrow (except Port Vale), but as ever it's looking monumentally close, with a bit of an uptick needed from Rovers. Difficult to stress how important those home games against Wimbledon and Walsall will be, and probably Bradford as well.

It should be also noted that some of the so called easier games are against teams that are fighting for their league status and they will
inevitably up their performance levels, in effect making themselves harder to beat.

[pib]

Absolutely hound. I was looking at the last 10 fixtures earlier, and whilst I’m sure we’ll win some of them, it’s so unpredictable where those wins will come from. Tranmere seem to have improved since getting rid of Adkins and Carlisle seem to be harder to beat now under Mark Hughes.

[ncRover]

I think Port Vale and Notts will lose tomorrow night.
Neither are that good.

[NickDRFC]

I think Port Vale and Notts will lose tomorrow night.
Neither are that good.

Remarkably it would be the first league game in 2025 that Port Vale have lost. They’re unbeaten in 11 since the turn of the year. Although 6 of those have been draws.

[Avsuptem]

According to my meagre arithmetic skills as things stand now based on form over the last 10 games we will finish 2nd behind Bradford City, Notts County will be 3rd and Wimbledon could finish in 4th in front of Walsall.

[Bristol Red Rover]

I know form counts in the BST stock market, but I'd be v surprised with Walsall finishing that poorly. For sure it's setting up for an epic arse squeaking finish, all positions up for grabs.

[Sprotyrover]

Oooh I’m getting a ‘little Fatty ‘on thinking about what’s to come!

[karldew]

Any update on the final points needed for top 3?..

[NickDRFC]

I know form counts in the BST stock market, but I'd be v surprised with Walsall finishing that poorly. For sure it's setting up for an epic arse squeaking finish, all positions up for grabs.

To be fair, and he’s said this many times, his model doesn’t predict where or with what points individual teams will finish. It indicates likely totals for each league position.

[idler]

It might be a bit more clear after Tuesday night’s games. Rovers v Walsall and Bradford City v Port Vale means some or all will drop points.A win for us and a draw for City would really put the cat among the pigeons. A must not lose game for us I think.