Brexit deal

[SydneyRover]

And people wonder why we are where we are....
 
https://youtu.be/SmqKvuyNPA8

That is f**king awful, I suggest the the BrexitCon brigade don't view it unsupervised.

[The Red Baron]

Just a staging post tonight.

The real action starts with the Cabinet resignations.
Likely this week, unavoidable next IMHO.

Might start after May has her 6 hour session tomorrow......6 hours with her would break most!

If May knows that division in the Cabinet is imminent, how does she plan for the breakdown in predictable outcomes that will follow on?

I reckon she will try to put her deal again, fail again, and then call a GE to break the impasse and hope the party will re-group around a new leader.

Assumes BoJo can be kept off the showdown list, clearly!

If/ when there are resignations we'll know which direction May has decided to go in.

[SydneyRover]

Just a staging post tonight.

The real action starts with the Cabinet resignations.
Likely this week, unavoidable next IMHO.

Might start after May has her 6 hour session tomorrow......6 hours with her would break most!

If May knows that division in the Cabinet is imminent, how does she plan for the breakdown in predictable outcomes that will follow on?

I reckon she will try to put her deal again, fail again, and then call a GE to break the impasse and hope the party will re-group around a new leader.

Assumes BoJo can be kept off the showdown list, clearly!

If/ when there are resignations we'll know which direction May has decided to go in.

I would suggest that events have overtaken La Miserables, almost to the point where their decisions are near irrelevant.

Brexit: Barnier says extending article 50 again to help UK would pose 'significant risks' to EU - live news

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/apr/02/brexit-latest-news-live-cabinet-theresa-may-barnier-says-extending-article-50-again-to-help-uk-would-pose-significant-risks-to-eu-live-news#comment-127609263

[IDM]

  Leave with a properly negotiated deal would be my preferred option, but no deal is what we probably deserve.
  And the sun will shine the day after, you will all still have to go to work, and a few days after everyone will be thinking what was all the fuss about.
  The only certain thing will be that the market makers in the city of London will have made a killing, and will be looking at the EU and if there is any weakness in its make up, probably the Mediterranean countries they will go after their scalps like a pack of Hyenas, and sod anyone else, there's money to be made.

Wonder what the fuss was all about, with no deal.?

Try asking that of families with EU citizens in the UK and vice versa?

At least with a deal agreed and obviously with remain, their futures would be clear..

[albie]

I can't understand the thinking of people like Owen Smith and other Labour MP's, who are in favour of Ref2 but think that means they can't vote for anything else as well.

4 options on the table, you surely support all that will help prevent the worst case scenario.
It is almost as though they think supporting Common Market 2.0 makes it impossible to support Ref2 at this stage.

I cannot see how voting for the Boles option would impact the prospects of Ref2 in any significant way.
By all means vote to a principle, but don't make your idea of the best prevent the good.

[DonnyOsmond]

No harm in having common market, Mays Deal etc on a referendum. They don't want a second ref, they want A50 revoked.

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's still brinkmanship. We're not (quite) at the very edge of the cliff yet. Everyone is thinking that everyone else might bottle it first and come to their camp.

[Pancho Regan]

It's still brinkmanship. We're not (quite) at the very edge of the cliff yet. Everyone is thinking that everyone else might bottle it first and come to their camp.

The first cliff-edge was last Friday but that didn't do much to focus their minds did it?
We've just been given a bit more cliff but I don't see anybody using that extra time very productively.

Irresponsible, self-centred b******s.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes it did focus several minds.

Three of the 4 indicative votes last night came very close to passing. It's a process. If they go for one more round, I suspect one or more will get a majority.

 What I AM shocked and saddened by is the number of Northern Labour MPs who are dead set against any of these compromises. If there IS an accidental No Deal, it will be their constituents who will take the biggest hammering. Every economic analysis says that. And it will be those MPs who brought it on.

[Filo]

Ed Miliband has said that we must avoid a no deal, yet he abstained on one of the votes last night

[Not Now Kato]

Listening to callers to the Jeremy Vine show on radio 2 it's clear that this should never have been put to the people in the first place.  Most of them are leavers and come across as total f**kwits.  The 'Leave means Leave' mantra is set in stone with so many of them, yet when asked they can't say what kind of leave they want!  What the hell happened to education in this country that so many people are unable to reason things out without simply repeating meaningless sound-bites?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pancho

Before rushing to stick the boot into MPs for not sorting out this problem immediately, reflect on what Yvette Cooper said earlier today.

"We have been attempting to squeeze into just a couple of days a process that really should have been happening for the last two years - a process of trying to build a consensus around the best way forward."

And that's the issue. MPs have been sidelined for 2 years while May tried to ram through her version of Brexit. But she can't get it through because it satisfies nobody and she has no control over her party. And, critically, May has made zero attempt to reach out to other parties to find a majority consensus view.

MPs are now having to do that for her in zero time, because she has pissed away the past 2.5 years.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here you go. Some more numbers for Leave supporters to ignore.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1RD1T8

Since 2016, we've gone into a significantly slower growth path compared to what we were doing before and what other, comparable countries have done since.

Goldman Sachs reckon that's cost us the thick end of £100bn over the past three years.

The amount that we have lost and are continuing to lose would be enough to pay for 1million new nurses. One f**king MILLION new nurses.

Still. We took back control eh? I'm sure you're all chuffed to bits with yourselves.

EDIT. And THAT has come about while we're still in the EU. And the people who told you that wouldn't happen are the same snake oil salesmen telling you that it'll be fine if we have no deal. It won't matter that we consciously choose to make it harder to trade with half a billion if the wealthiest people on the planet, right on our doorstep. Because Liam Fox has negotiated Free Trade deals with Palestine and the Faroe Islands.

Honest question to those still supporting leave. What level of economic loss would convince you to think that you might have been sold a pup? How much of a hit in your own pocket would you say is too much?

£100?
£1000?
£10,000?
£100,000?

[Boomstick]

Here you go. Some more numbers for Leave supporters to ignore.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1RD1T8

Since 2016, we've gone into a significantly slower growth path compared to what we were doing before and what other, comparable countries have done since.

Goldman Sachs reckon that's cost us the thick end of £100bn over the past three years.

The amount that we have lost and are continuing to lose would be enough to pay for 1million new nurses. One f**king MILLION new nurses.

Still. We took back control eh? I'm sure you're all chuffed to bits with yourselves.

EDIT. And THAT has come about while we're still in the EU. And the people who told you that wouldn't happen are the same snake oil salesmen telling you that it'll be fine if we have no deal. It won't matter that we consciously choose to make it harder to trade with half a billion if the wealthiest people on the planet, right on our doorstep. Because Liam Fox has negotiated Free Trade deals with Palestine and the Faroe Islands.

Honest question to those still supporting leave. What level of economic loss would convince you to think that you might have been sold a pup? How much of a hit in your own pocket would you say is too much?

£100?
£1000?
£10,000?
£100,000?

It's something your not getting is it, even after 2 years.
It's not about the economics, it's about British sovereignty and immigration.
Your using an economic argument, to argue your ideological views. Instead of just having the spine to admit and argue your ideological viewpoint.

Oh and that slower growth is due uncertainty, NOT DUE TO THE LEAVE VOTE.
That uncertainty is down to mps.

Your again spinning and twisting things.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BS

You're ignoring my question.  How much would you, personally, be prepared to lose out of your pocket?

I assume it's not a binary thing for you. I assume that you wouldn't want us to Leave if it meant that we all went feral and had to eat rats and grass? I assume there is SOME economic price that you wouldn't pay. I'm merely asking you what it is.

You're wrong by the way, on the cause of our economic slowdown. Shouldn't surprise anyone because you've got previous on deciding your conclusion then ignoring contrary evidence.

Our slowdown started in 2016. Well before MPs had any real involvement in the process. The slowdown started because companies are expecting (with the overwhelming mass of economic theory supporting them) that we are going to be a poorer, less efficient and less connected  economy. Uncertainty exacerbates the situation but it is not the root cause. The root cause is that there is no Brexiters that doesn't hurt our economy. Companies have been pricing that in over the past 3 years.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's the evidence of our slowdown by the way. It started to become noticeable in late 2016. BS, if you have evidence that there was uncertainty due to MPs' actions at that time, do share. Otherwise accept that you're talking nonsense.

[IDM]

Here you go. Some more numbers for Leave supporters to ignore.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1RD1T8

Since 2016, we've gone into a significantly slower growth path compared to what we were doing before and what other, comparable countries have done since.

Goldman Sachs reckon that's cost us the thick end of £100bn over the past three years.

The amount that we have lost and are continuing to lose would be enough to pay for 1million new nurses. One f**king MILLION new nurses.

Still. We took back control eh? I'm sure you're all chuffed to bits with yourselves.

EDIT. And THAT has come about while we're still in the EU. And the people who told you that wouldn't happen are the same snake oil salesmen telling you that it'll be fine if we have no deal. It won't matter that we consciously choose to make it harder to trade with half a billion if the wealthiest people on the planet, right on our doorstep. Because Liam Fox has negotiated Free Trade deals with Palestine and the Faroe Islands.

Honest question to those still supporting leave. What level of economic loss would convince you to think that you might have been sold a pup? How much of a hit in your own pocket would you say is too much?

£100?
£1000?
£10,000?
£100,000?

It's something your not getting is it, even after 2 years.
It's not about the economics, it's about British sovereignty and immigration.
Your using an economic argument, to argue your ideological views. Instead of just having the spine to admit and argue your ideological viewpoint.

Oh and that slower growth is due uncertainty, NOT DUE TO THE LEAVE VOTE.
That uncertainty is down to mps.

Your again spinning and twisting things.

And there’s something you’re not getting either, that is - the difference between the severing of political ties, and with the practicalities of doing so.

It’s all well and good saying we should leave on principle as voted for, but we have to make that actually work.

At the moment, the latter isn’t happening, and ardent leave voters only response is to stick the head in the sand and repeat leave means leave ad infinitum..

[BillyStubbsTears]

Except, despite BS's obsession with a Dunkirk Spirit approach, there's no evidence that people voted in the knowledge that there was a trade off between Sovereignty and Economy. They were told over and over and over and over again by the liars in Vote Leave and Leave.EU that leaving meant they could have both. BS might be one of these noble democrats who would be prepared to live naked in a cave and eat fresh air if it meant it was HIS cave. I suspect most folk would be a bit peeved to find that Brexit has already cost the country £6000 and rising for every family of four, and that the predictions are you'll be able to put a zero on that by the mid-2020s.

[Axholme Lion]

Except, despite BS's obsession with a Dunkirk Spirit approach, there's no evidence that people voted in the knowledge that there was a trade off between Sovereignty and Economy. They were told over and over and over and over again by the liars in Vote Leave and Leave.EU that leaving meant they could have both. BS might be one of these noble democrats who would be prepared to live naked in a cave and eat fresh air if it meant it was HIS cave. I suspect most folk would be a bit peeved to find that Brexit has already cost the country £6000 and rising for every family of four, and that the predictions are you'll be able to put a zero on that by the mid-2020s.

I can't wait for a WTO departure and for us to be successful while the EU implodes on itself as more nations see the light and leave. It will be like the collapse of the soviet union.

[Filo]

The Cabinet meeting is dragging on today

[Axholme Lion]

The Cabinet meeting is dragging on today

Depends how heavy it is. I had to move a shed at the weekend and my backs killing me now.

[Glyn_Wigley]

The Cabinet meeting is dragging on today

I get the impression that May is holding them hostage in the hope that Stockholm Syndrome will set in.

[Boomstick]

So the growth tracked pretty much the same until around a year after the referendum, when the mps f**king around became apparent. Funny that, eh?

This whole slower growth economic theory IS caused by undemocratic mps, and media trying to derail the brexit process.
I've said this countless times, if people accepted the result of the referendum after people decided they wanted out after DECADES of EU rule, then we would be now in a much better place.

It was drilled into us over many months, and by many mps that we must consider it carefully, and it was a ONE time vote. People considered it, and like I said, after decades of EU rule, we decided to go it alone.

It's the undemocratic mps like yvette Cooper, whose fault it is that we are in the mess we're in now.

At least brexiteers have the spine to admit the reason they voted the way we did.

[IDM]

People voted on philosophical ideals - which is perfectly ok - but the practicalities were far from clear..

How can MPs get 5 or 6 votes in this when the electorate only gets one.?

[wilts rover]

How close are we to Civil unrest?

Everyone is sick to the back teeth of this

Don't forget this is not France, this is the UK.

As Mark E. Smith put it  "start the revolution when the pubs shut."

Being serious, it won't happen unless we either leave with no deal or Article 50 is revoked. More likely we'll go through another 1-2 years of the nonsense.

Well so far we have had 1 MP shot and killed. A court case relating to abuse of others. At least 5 letter bombs from the IRA and today this:

https://twitter.com/MetroUK?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

more here:

both devices had notes around them saying 'Leave Means Leave' and 'We will bring Britain to a Standstill'

https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC

[Glyn_Wigley]

So the growth tracked pretty much the same until around a year after the referendum, when the mps f**king around became apparent. Funny that, eh?

It wasn't put before the MPs until January this year after May delayed it from December. Funny that, eh?

[Boomstick]

So the growth tracked pretty much the same until around a year after the referendum, when the mps f**king around became apparent. Funny that, eh?

It wasn't put before the MPs until January this year after May delayed it from December. Funny that, eh?

When I say mps f**king around, you must realise I include May, and the government.
So excuse my when I say, what's your point?

[Boomstick]

People voted on philosophical ideals - which is perfectly ok - but the practicalities were far from clear..

How can MPs get 5 or 6 votes in this when the electorate only gets one.?

Because, as remainers were quick to point out, parliament is sovereign.

[Glyn_Wigley]

So the growth tracked pretty much the same until around a year after the referendum, when the mps f**king around became apparent. Funny that, eh?

It wasn't put before the MPs until January this year after May delayed it from December. Funny that, eh?

When I say mps f**king around, you must realise I include May, and the government.
So excuse my when I say, what's your point?

If that's what you meant to say....it took you a year to realise what a shambles it was??

[Glyn_Wigley]

May speaks. It took all day to come up with THAT??