Viking Supporters Co-operative
Viking Chat => Off Topic => Topic started by: BigColSutherland on February 18, 2014, 07:17:34 pm
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Is anyone watching what's going on in Kiev tonight? It's like a war zone.
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It's awful. I've spent quite a bit of time in the Ukraine and have work colleagues and friends there now. It's impossible to imagine that me, and quite a few other England fans, were stood in that very same spot in Independence Square about 18 months ago having a great time. It's unrecognisable.
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Looking like the nightmare scenario.
The revolution has taken Kiev, but the Govt has moved to their Russo-phile stronghold in the East. This has all the makings of a big civil war. The question is, does Russia go all-in to support its side.
Very, very scary.
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The question is, does Russia go all-in to support its side.
That's a no brainer. Of course they will. There are too many gas pipelines coming from Russia and going through Ukraine to Western Europe for Russia to step aside. The countries of Western Europe will turn a blind eye because getting the gas from Russia is the most important thing to them. The Russian side will obviously be victorious. It's time the opposition politicians were pragmatic and caved in or there will be an horrendous loss of life.
This country doesn't need democracy. It is a system that will not work in countries like this. What they need is a benevolent dictator to keep the peace.
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Yes Mick
Perhaps you should pop over once you've finished the Bettaware round and tell them how to sort it out.
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They only have to ask.
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Coup d'état, that's what's happened. :rolleyes: . Something which the western media has called a revolution.
Doesn't matter to the Russians anyway, they will let the opposition save face and let them claim a victory. But beneath the surface, behind the scenes nothing has changed in Russia's interests.
Otherwise you would see russian tanks rolling in. (Unless of course Putin is waiting until after the Olympics to act)
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Boomstick has right, it's like a revolution in Ukraine. Some people wants their region to reunite with Russia (especially region where is Donetsk) and others (I think the majority) wants to stay independent as are now. That's what I heard
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They only have to ask.
We don't ask but it doesn't stop you.
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Boomstick has right, it's like a revolution in Ukraine. Some people wants their region to reunite with Russia (especially region where is Donetsk) and others (I think the majority) wants to stay independent as are now. That's what I heard
That's basically it, they don't want to reunite with Russia but they want the government to lean more towards them than the EU, and the other side want the government to be more involved with the EU - from what I make of what I've heard at least.
Well, that's putting it simplistically anyway.
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It's looking like Russia has upped the anti and have now blockaded the airport in Crimea, this could be like Afganistan all over again for Russia
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More likely to be a messy partition of the country and possibly low level skirmishing at the boundaries.
I don't see Russia wanting to go all in to invade the pro-Western part of Ukraine. The stakes are too high with the EU and USA supporting the other side. Much more likely that both sides will accept a partition of the country on pragmatic grounds that it is the solution that allows both sides to save face without the threat of direct Russia-West conflict.
The nastiness will come in ethnic cleansing as the pro and anti Russians are forced out of the others' zones, a la Bosnia. And if militias on the ground get too nasty in this, that is when there might be pressure for more direct intervention from Russia or the West. And THEN it could accidentally get far more dangerous.
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It looks like this is now all about Russia maintaining control of Crimea. They aren't about to relinquish their naval access to the black sea, they've been handing out Russian passports to anyone who wants one. Partition of the country looks to be in progress.
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Over to you, Mr Klitschko. Those presidential elections in May seem a long, long way off now.
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Putin has asked the Russian Parliament to deploy troops in Ukraine, How will. The West react to this?
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It's a very tricky situation to say the least.
Letting Crimea become some sort of independent state under Russian influence would look to be the path that offers the least difficulties.
Whatever the stakes are getting pretty high, they've got to tread very carefully.
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When they were fighting in parliament last week and the MP was winding up a punch. He had a really good luck round first to ensure Mr Klitchko was nohere near.
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Coup d'état, that's what's happened. :rolleyes: . Something which the western media has called a revolution.
Doesn't matter to the Russians anyway, they will let the opposition save face and let them claim a victory. But beneath the surface, behind the scenes nothing has changed in Russia's interests.
Otherwise you would see russian tanks rolling in. (Unless of course Putin is waiting until after the Olympics to act)
I guess Russia has something to lose, and now I thought, they are acting now the Olympics have finished.
The kremlin has approved troops for deployment in Ukraine not just Crimea. could get messy for the Ukrainians that instigated the coup. can't see anything apart from a decisive Russian victory, just ask Georgia.
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(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02838/Ukraine_Crimea-car_2838910c.jpg)
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"Putin may be taking the WWI centenary commemorations a little too far."
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As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441
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As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441
An interesting read but perhaps a bit alarmist, I don't see events in Ukraine impacting much on the forces of globalisation and China.
What should be remembered is Ukraine isn't a nation like Poland or Lithuania, a buffer against the west. Many Russians feel Ukraine is a part of Russia, it's little Russia and many Ukrainians feel Russian. That's why Putin feels he can act with impunity, he's moving Russian forces around a country he feels is his own. In geopolitical terms the Crimea is very important to Russia.
In my opinion, partition looks like happening and the crucial thing is where the lines are drawn, western Ukraine wants to be European. Would Russia want to reclaim western Ukraine, that is the dangerous scenario. Hopefully Putin might look at all the trouble Kiev has caused and be inclined to let it go, if he decides he wants to grab it back, then there could be real trouble. If the west insist Ukraines border are fixed and should remain then equally that spells trouble, we can't go annexing bits of Russia.
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I think it's a case of who blinks first between Russia and USA, one wrong move from a rogue Russian soldier in Ukraine could be the spark that lights the touch paper. I think Putin is old school Communist, he'll not like the fact that the Soviet Union broke up or going further back in time when the soviets back down during the Cuban missile crisis
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RD/Filo
It's the connection with 1905 that is key.
Like the Tsars, Putin's legitimacy at home rests on being seen as a hard man who isn't pushed around. The embarrassment of the Russo-Japanese War in 05 was the first sign of the Tsarist system crumbling and there is a direct line from there to Sarajevo in 1914 (Russia had to put its foot down and not be bullied by Austria, and eventually the storming of the Winter Palace.
So Putin cannot be seen to be bullied by the West over Ukraine without his legitimacy at home coming into question.
But the West cannot ignore a call from Ukraine to join the Western family of nations without ITS legitimacy coming into question. If the West backs down over Ukraine, what happens when Putin then bullies Poland? Or Hungary?
I still think the most likely outcome is a messy partition. Both sides can justify that. The West will tell Ukraine to accept that because the West is not going to put boots on the ground to go into direct conflict with Spetsnaz forces to secure Kharkov or Sevastopol for Ukraine.
But it will inevitably be accompanied by economic issues between the West and Russia. Because the West will need to paint Putin as the aggressor in breaking up Ukraine. And that is what Mason is pushing at. It means a fundamental re-aligning of global relationships, with China having a free hand to support whoever it sees fit.
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BST,
Like I said, Putin is old school Communist, Krushciev's downfall was partly down to him being seen to let USA dictate to him, he blinked first in the Cuban crisis, that let to a more hardliner in Breshniev coming to power
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BST Filo,
Putin is no commie, BST is right in painting him as a hard man, he's a robber baron whose power lays with Russia's oils dn gas industry and the oligarchs.
I think China has felt it has a freehand to do as it sees fit for quite sometime anyway.
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RD, Putin may not be a commie in name, but imprisoning political opponents, including poisoning some of them, being a prominent member of the KGB and for a time in charge of the Soviet interests in the former East Germany suggests that he definitely is a Commie
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Haven't the Russians been against intervention in Syria because they say it violates Syrian sovereignty?
Whats the difference in Crimea?
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Haven't the Russians been against intervention in Syria because they say it violates Syrian sovereignty?
Whats the difference in Crimea?
They believe Crimea is a region of Russia.
In Russia they seems to have taken all the instruments of control from the old soviet era but they no longer have the communist ideology. It's more a controlled market, a kind of crony capitalism. I would describe Putin as a nationalist.
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Spain believe Gibraltar is a region of Spain, but they have n't sent Spanish troops to roam the streets of Gibraltar. Like Gibraltar was ceded to the British by the signing of a treaty, Crimea was ceded to Ukraine by the signing of a treaty. Russia have now clearly violated that treaty and international law, Europe and it's allies now need to stand firm in the face of Russian aggression!
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Filo
The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.
It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.
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Comparing Gibraltar to Crimea is a terrible analogy.
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Filo
The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.
It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.
So the obvious answer is to do what we are doing with Scotland and let the people of Crimea decide in a democratic way and hold a referendum, are the Russians afraid that the result won't be what they want?
And while we are at it, all nations should threaten a boycott of the 2018 World cup
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Comparing Gibraltar to Crimea is a terrible analogy.
You're missing my point, both regions were ceded via treaty's, and as such Russia has has violated the treaty and International law with an act of aggression
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I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.
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I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.
And like I said earlier in the thread, Russia can't oppose intervention in Syria on one hand and then in the other hand it rides roughshod straight into another sovereign state
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Filo
The people of Gibraltar wish to remain British.
It's a messy situation but it looks like a large majority in Crimea want to maintain links to Russia. That and Crimea hosts an enormous Russian military facility.
So the obvious answer is to do what we are doing with Scotland and let the people of Crimea decide in a democratic way and hold a referendum, are the Russians afraid that the result won't be what they want?
And while we are at it, all nations should threaten a boycott of the 2018 World cup
They've hastily arranged a referendum for sometime in March.
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Russia can do what it likes. Countries in the West do, Israel has been doing it for as long as it's been around. There'll be a lot of rhetoric spoken, but really, what are the West going to do if Russia decides on a course of action they don't like?
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Intersting that people have brought up China and what they might do - is this now the time to mention Tibet?
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I don't think Britain or America, or indeed most of the West, are in any position to lecture people on breaking international law.
EXACTLY, America condemning Russia for invading Ukraine is like O.J Simpson condemning Oscar Pistorius.
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As ever, Paul Mason has the best strategic view.
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/russian-invasion-ukraine-push-west-economic-war/441
(Sarcasm alert) Not Sarah Palin's analysis then:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2571147/Sarah-Palin-hits-high-brow-critics-mocked-2008-predicting-Russias-invasion-Ukraine.html
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Looks like Platini has splinters in his arse.
http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/06/sport/platini-paralympic-boycott-ukraine/
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Spain believe Gibraltar is a region of Spain, but they have n't sent Spanish troops to roam the streets of Gibraltar. Like Gibraltar was ceded to the British by the signing of a treaty, Crimea was ceded to Ukraine by the signing of a treaty. Russia have now clearly violated that treaty and international law, Europe and it's allies now need to stand firm in the face of Russian aggression!
Perhaps Spain haven't got the b*llocks to try and take Gibraltar by force. They are scared of a British military reaction. They saw what happened in the Falklands, and also how Sir Franny Drake kicked their sorry arses....
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This situation can'tbe controlled now. Unfortunately possession is 9/10ths of the law and Russian/Russian backed and other militia and mercenarieswill not let this go now .
The West has shown that it's weaknesses over resources (especially within the EU ) cannot be overcome and for the moment Putin has all the Aces. Our over reliance on Soviet resources has tilted the balance of power quite firmly over to the East.
Hang onto your seats this could become a very costly and dangerous ride for those in the West who have decided to placate Putin. Talk of sanctions will not worry this man however hard they hit his countrymen as he and his cronies will still call the shots whilst sat in the lap of luxury.
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I don't know what all the fuss is about.
It's very simple to sort out. Let Russia have Crimea back and let Ukraine go it's own way and become part of the EU if it wants to. Anyone that doesn't like this solution that is living in Ukraine or Crimea should be paid a resettlement sum and they can go and live in either Crimea or Ukraine (or Russia).
If we don't arrange this settlement, then Russia is going to take Crimea by force anyway and this will cause other monumental problems. Far better to nip the problem in the bud before it escalates out of control.
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What an American commentator makes of the UK's position regarding Ukraine. Hard to argue with it, given the spineless approach of the UK.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?smid=tw-share&_r=4&referrer=
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I don't know what all the fuss is about.
It's very simple to sort out. Let Russia have Crimea back and let Ukraine go it's own way and become part of the EU if it wants to. Anyone that doesn't like this solution that is living in Ukraine or Crimea should be paid a resettlement sum and they can go and live in either Crimea or Ukraine (or Russia).
If we don't arrange this settlement, then Russia is going to take Crimea by force anyway and this will cause other monumental problems. Far better to nip the problem in the bud before it escalates out of control.
maybe be you could get yourself over their and punch Putin really hard in the face ?
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I'd like to see that...
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What an American commentator makes of the UK's position regarding Ukraine. Hard to argue with it, given the spineless approach of the UK.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/03/08/opinion/londons-laundry-business.html?smid=tw-share&_r=4&referrer=
I think it's a load of simplistic tosh. Anyway, what have we had from the Americans? Lots of warm words and little action.
What makes me laugh is that he seems to hold Tony Blair responsible for the UK's weakness. Say what you like about him (and I'm not really a fan) but if Blair had been PM we'd have been taking military action in Syria and we (and the Americans) would have shown Putin that we meant business. He calculated that the west (not just the UK) is collectively too weak to stand up to Russian aggression. There are a lot of factors behind that- not just that London is full of wealthy Russians.
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Realistically, what can the West do? The Germans would never agree to serious sanctions, no one would go for a military solution, so where does that leave us?
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Russia is an oligarchy. We could, if we wished, make things very difficult for the oligarchs. That is a way of generating pressure on Putin - possibly the one and only way of putting pressure on him. He knows that we are not going to take military action (the idea is laughable, and the ridiculous comments that I heard from one Tory MP, that if Miliband hadn't voted against lobbing a dozen cruise missiles into Damascus, Putin would have thought twice about Crimea is risible gutter politics of the worst kind.)
General economic sanctions that hurt the Russian population would not make a jot of difference. But freezing the gangsters' accounts in London and refusing to give them visas would heap pressure on Putin. But we won't do it (not a party political point - I doubt any UK Govt would do it). Because, as that article says, one of our USPs as a country these days is that we will take and invest any illegal money, stolen from any benighted people anywhere in the world, so long as the city spivs can make their millions.
This is where glorious empires finally end up. Grubbing about to service the barbarians.
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It's anybody's guess really why we wont apply serious sanctions...... or maybe not:
However, sanctions on Russia could have a significant impact, experts said. “If Russia and Ukraine go to war, the consequences for the EU could be severe,” Joe Conlan at energy analysts Inenco said.
“If the conflict persists, then sanctions are likely to be placed on Russia. These sanctions could include sanctions on gas exports, which would place considerable strain on the UK, France and Germany.”
Mr Conlan said that while the UK does not directly import gas from Russia, it does receive “secondary imports, such as Russian exports of gas to Germany, and we import via pipelines from Belgium and Holland”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10674275/Ukraine-gas-and-oil-prices-rise-amid-fears-of-supply-disruption.html
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It just shows how seriously weak the West is in this situation. How the hell do we stop Putin now doing what he wants when the Europeans have no sanctions of note they either can or don't wish to apply.
This is a serious situation............
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It's obvious that the powers that be in Ukraine right now want closer ties with the West, it would really piss the Russians off if there was a Nato controlled air base in Ukraine right on their doorstep, it might make them think twice before they try to annex more of the region
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It's obvious that the powers that be in Ukraine right now want closer ties with the West, it would really piss the Russians off if there was a Nato controlled air base in Ukraine right on their doorstep, it might make them think twice before they try to annex more of the region
Thought the same myself with a multinational force of elite troops going in as well "at Ukraine's request" very similar to the alleged request from the bandit Crimean request to the Russians.
Put the most sophisticated defence systems in place and the combined special forces from the NATO , EU countries and he would back off. Aircraft and special forces could be there in less than 72 hours.
This and vastly enhanced restrictions on the oligarths would make Putin and those around him think again. This must happen before the Russians have more time to drive a wedge between the Ukrainian and Russian speaking communities in Ukraine.
That border must be secured by a mix of UN, EU and NATO forces pronto or say goodbye to Ukraine, Moldova and possibly the Baltic States.
Possibly control of the governments of Poland, Romania, Hungary and other states previously controlled by the old Soviet Union may be at risk too.
Anyone seeking to legitimise Putin's position on Ukraine should only compare it with our possible retaking of Australia and New Zealand on the basis that they are "English speaking" and are at a supposed risk. The notion is laughable I know but it is the Russian way.
Some folk say that the West have done similar things in regard to International law but don't ever cite any recent examples of where the West have annexed another country's territory in such a way.
I know that China has with Tibet and Mongolia (for all intents and purposes) but the West ?
Indeed they have interfered and intervened as have both Russia and China but never annexed. Indeed China's meddling in Africa for economic reasons probably lead them to abstaining in the recent UN vote........why put your own country under scrutiny too would be their reasoning I would suggest.
Finally appeasement never works with strong men like any other bully Russia needs to know the West and it's allies mean concerted business both economically and militarily NOW.
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The Russians have gone about it the wrong way and they should be told this in the strongest possible terms (behind closed doors). However, the vast majority of people in Crimea want to be part of Russia again. If this is what they want they now have it. This is not going to change. So it is now time to forget about Crimea and concentrate on what is going to happen in Ukraine.
Half of Ukraine wants to be part of the EU and the other half want closer ties with Russia. The best solution is to split the country in two. Half can develop links with Russia and the other half can move towards the EU. People can relocate to whichever part of the country suits their political views the best. The West should be trying to sort this out rather than constantly slagging off Russia in public.
If this doesn't happen there is very likely to be a civil war, then who knows what will happen next.
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Just two points here reference the Russian propaganda in this:-
1) Only 58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!
2) If you look at the demographics of Ukraine... There is NOT anywhere near a 50/50 split between those that speak the mother tongue and Russian. 'Russian majority speaking' areas only occupy c. 25% of the land and or 25% of the total population.
I know this is simplistic but the majority of the population of Crimea are living in a Russian prison not of their choosing and finally splitting up Ukraine would be similar to the way that we handled the split of India ......it would be a mess and a mess that even Russia should not want.
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Only 58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!
Depends on how many voted though, doesn't it?
I haven't seen the news lately, but if hardly any of the Ukrainian speakers voted and nigh on all the Russian speakers did, then that would be possible.
Anschluss, anyone?
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It is a bit too simplistic to assume that only Russian speakers would vote to be with Russia and Ukrainian speakers would vote to be with the West. There's a lot more to it.
If I were Ukrainian I'd much prefer to be with Russia. The only reason some of them want to be with the EU is that they think we'll give them loads of money and they'll become much more prosperous.
They don't realise what a bureaucratic nightmare the EU is and that they would be much better off keeping well away.
Russia is a huge market and is on their doorstep. They'd be crazy not to exploit this to it's full potential.
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It is a bit too simplistic to assume that only Russian speakers would vote to be with Russia and Ukrainian speakers would vote to be with the West. There's a lot more to it.
If I were Ukrainian I'd much prefer to be with Russia. The only reason some of them want to be with the EU is that they think we'll give them loads of money and they'll become much more prosperous.
They don't realise what a bureaucratic nightmare the EU is and that they would be much better off keeping well away.
Russia is a huge market and is on their doorstep. They'd be crazy not to exploit this to it's full potential.
I'm not just assuming it - I don't think that, it's just a possible explanation.
Besides, there's more to life than a "market"...
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Besides, there's more to life than a "market"...
There is but having a successful economy is the only way to improve 'life'. For example Poland has been part of the EU for a while now and is still doing very badly. Just look at the number of Poles in our country. I know quite a few and they have no intention of ever going back. Life is far better for them in the UK.
Ukrainians need to get a grip and come into the real world. The EU is not a panacea to all their problems and given all the links to Russia they are asking for trouble by going against them. They should be trying to build closer ties to their mutual advantage or Russia will impose itself anyway and they'll be worse off than they would have been.
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Poland's GDP per capita has increased by over 50% in the ten years since in joined the EU.
That's a fraction lower than Germany and Italy managed during the Wirtschaftswunder and Miracolo Economico of the 1950s and 60s.
What was your point again Mick?
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Have you got the source for that info BST?
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BCS
Yes. PM me if you want it.
PS: Have a word with your mate LJ Monk. He asked me that precise same question in a thread last year. And I had the sources for the data that time as well.
Do you lot have a hive mind over at Facebook/Twitter?
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Sent. Many thanks.
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The EU has been bad for Poland. You give the impression that they have only grown because they are part of the EU. They would have grown anyway because they were coming from such a low base.
You need to speak to Polish people that have immigrated to England. Poland is doing crap and they much prefer living here even though we've just had a terrible recession (which Poland didn't). That should tell you something.
Longer term the mass exodus of Poland's young to work in other countries will do untold damage to their economy.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/11/poland-and-eu
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Mick
If you were REALLY interested in adding to a discussion, you could easily go and find some numbers instead of spouting bullshit off the top of your head.
In the 5 years to 2004, Poland's growth rate per capita was 3%. In the ten years since joining the EU in 2004 (a period which has encompassed the worst European recession for at least 80 years), their growth rate per capita has been ~4.1%.
Now. Have you anything to add over and above your pub pore inanities?
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Have a word with your mate LJ Monk.
They can't stand each other.
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Have a word with your mate LJ Monk.
They can't stand each other.
Strange behaviour for two people that attended a test match in Australia together
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In the 5 years to 2004, Poland's growth rate per capita was 3%. In the ten years since joining the EU in 2004 (a period which has encompassed the worst European recession for at least 80 years), their growth rate per capita has been ~4.1%.
So using your logic Poland's growth rate would have stayed at 3.0% if they hadn't joined the EU. That is very simplistic in the extreme. Instead it has shot up to a massive 4.1%. Wow. That's a massive difference.
You completely ignore the fact that the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU! This is a ticking time-bomb for them that will explode with devastating consequences in years to come.
If things are so great over there why did nearly all the Polish immigrants living in other European countries not return during the recession?
As they say there are statistics and damned lies.
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Mick
In the five years before Poland joined the EU, its population fell by half a million. In the ten years since, it's increased by half a million.
Keep going. You'll stumble on a fact eventually, in a monkeys and typewriter stylee.
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In the five years before Poland joined the EU, its population fell by half a million. In the ten years since, it's increased by half a million.
Keep going. You'll stumble on a fact eventually, in a monkeys and typewriter stylee.
Like I said there are statistics and damned lies. You seem to imply that the population has grown because of EU membership and this is a good thing that proves EU membership has been beneficial. You really are very simplistic in your reasoning.
There are many factors that affect whether a population grows or falls. For example, increased life expectancy, leading to an ageing population contributes to size of population.
A much more pertinent statistic is the birth rate. 5 years before joining the EU the birth rate was 382,000 per year. In 2013 it was 372,000. You wouldn't think this was the case would you listening to you. This decline is a much more valid statistic in the context of EU membership.
It's a good job I don't take what you say at face value. You use statistics selectively to paint completely the wrong picture time and time again and evade questions.
It's a good job I'm around to keep you in line.
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When I started this thread a month ago to discuss the protests in Kiev I certainly didn't expect it to morph into a discussion about the impact of EU membership upon the birth rate in Poland.
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I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.
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You completely ignore the fact that the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU! This is a ticking time-bomb for them that will explode with devastating consequences in years to come.
2.1 million people have left Poland since they joined the EU. If these people were still there their growth figures would be worse than the 3.0% they were getting before EU membership.
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When I started this thread a month ago to discuss the protests in Kiev I certainly didn't expect it to morph into a discussion about the impact of EU membership upon the birth rate in Poland.
When people start threads about the Dons, I'm sure they don't think they'll be hijacked about Fathers Day and car boot sales...
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I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.
The problem, once these chats descend into stats, is that anyone with a modicum of intelligence, can manipulate the numbers to suit their argument. It then turns into a war of attrition.
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I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.
Is that a bit like the selective use of quotes?
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Mick lad. I didn't imply anything. I was merely countering your (demonstrably wrong) pub bore argument that "the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU!"
I didn't say anything about WHY the population had increased. If you confined yourself to discussing what people actually write instead of constantly demonstrating your infallible ability to mis-read what they think, you might do a better job.
You then bring up an opinion that (perhaps) the population has increased because of an ageing population. Well then, let's have a look at the employment market in Poland. If the economy was struggling, you'd expect there to be a drop in the number employed.
In the five years up to Poland joining the EU, Poland saw a drop of 17% in the number of people in employment. Since 2004 (despite the recession) the number of people employed has increased by 14%.
Now, just to explain to you. None of this is guaranteed to be due to Poland's membership of the EU. But it is clear Poland's membership of the EU has coincided with something approaching the economic miracles that Germany and Italy experienced in the decades after the War.
(Stick with it BCS - here comes the full circle bit...)
All of this gives some context to the desire of many Western Ukrainians to join the EU. Ukraine shares a long border with Poland. and there will be looks of envy from the western Ukrainians at what has happened in Poland over the past decade.
Ukraine's GDP per capita has grown at a rate little more than half that of Poland's over the last decade (and from a lower base, so that's a finger in the air to that little theory of yours Mick).
On trade, Poland's exports have increased dramatically since joining the EU. They now export 3.5 times what they did ten years ago. Ukraine's exports have risen about two-fold.
On inflation, Poland has maintained a low-ish and stable inflation rate since joining the EU (typically 1-4%). Ukraine has had wild swings, from outright deflation to 30% inflation.
On population, Ukraine has truly experienced a mass emigration - they have lost over 2.5 million people in the last decade whilst Poland's population has grown.
Put all that together and you can see clearly why many people in the Ukraine would love to join the EU.
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I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.
The problem, once these chats descend into stats, is that anyone with a modicum of intelligence, can manipulate the numbers to suit their argument. It then turns into a war of attrition.
BCS
I fundamentally disagree there. At the margin, there's something to be said for that argument. But there are some stats which are simply facts that need to be laid out to form the foundation of a sensible discussion. Without an agreed bedrock of numerical evidence, any discussion of this sort is just so much piss and wind and degenerates into a opinionated w**kfest. It is the reason why I get so het up when people insist on quoting "facts" and can't substantiate them, or quote numbers that are simply wrong.
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Good luck getting Mick to agree that bedrock.
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I know BCS. It won't happen. I just keep myself in training by this sparring.
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I didn't imply anything. I was merely countering your (demonstrably wrong) pub bore argument that "the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU!"
Yes you did. If things were so great why have 2.1million of there brightest and best left the country with most of them never planning to return? If that 2.1million had stayed put this would have affected their growth in a very negative manner because there would have been much more unemployment.
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No Mick. I didn't. You are over-reaching your mental capacity again spadger.
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If things were so great why have 2.1million of there brightest and best left the country with most of them never planning to return?
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On population, Ukraine has truly experienced a mass emigration - they have lost over 2.5 million people in the last decade whilst Poland's population has grown.
2.1million of Poland's brightest and best have left the country since joining the EU (most never to return).
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Mick
The point is that whichever way you look at it (GDP growth, GDP growth per capita, trade, population, employment) Poland has done far better inside the EU than Ukraine has outside.
Agreed? Or do you have some astonishing information to the contrary?
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Stick 2.1 million on the dole queue in Poland and you'd have a very different story. There is the illusion of Poland doing well because so many people have been allowed to leave the country and go to other EU countries. This will be disastrous for the country long term.
So the EU has not been good for Poland. Long term it will be very bad. Just ask Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. The EU is only good for Germany.
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Yes Mick. Goodnight.
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Only 58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!
Depends on how many voted though, doesn't it?
I haven't seen the news lately, but if hardly any of the Ukrainian speakers voted and nigh on all the Russian speakers did, then that would be possible.
Anschluss, anyone?
I believe the figure quoted was that 78% of the electorate voted.
Given that 42% of the population were non Russian speaking population they would be highly unlikely to vote at all 'freely' .
The figures don't add up and these are the most warped election figures that I've ever seen.
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You will be disappointed to know Hoola that it is nowhere near the worst election. The record of which is still held by that for the president of Liberia in 1927/
President Charles King of the True Whig Party was re-elected for a third term with a solid 234,000 votes cast in his favour, against 9,000 votes for his opponent, Thomas J Faulkner, of the People's Party.
The problem was Liberia only had 15,000 registered voters at the time.
http://www.channel4.com/news/its-a-stitch-up-ballot-box-blues
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You will be disappointed to know Hoola that it is nowhere near the worst election. The record of which is still held by that for the president of Liberia in 1927/
President Charles King of the True Whig Party was re-elected for a third term with a solid 234,000 votes cast in his favour, against 9,000 votes for his opponent, Thomas J Faulkner, of the People's Party.
The problem was Liberia only had 15,000 registered voters at the time.
http://www.channel4.com/news/its-a-stitch-up-ballot-box-blues
Jeez I thought the Crimean one was a massive fix but hats off to Prince Charles King. :)
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On population, Ukraine has truly experienced a mass emigration - they have lost over 2.5 million people in the last decade whilst Poland's population has grown.
2.1million of Poland's brightest and best have left the country since joining the EU (most never to return).
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Sorry,all this random quoting has left me unable to draw my own conclusions in this debate,however I'm coming down on the side of IC1967.
IC has demonstrated, without doubt, that Poland has a population of about 36 million that are not the brightest or best.
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Ukraine what the hell happened to any bloody discussion on this country's future ?
I give in :(