Ukraine

[IC1967]

Besides, there's more to life than a "market"...

There is but having a successful economy is the only way to improve 'life'. For example Poland has been part of the EU for a while now and is still doing very badly. Just look at the number of Poles in our country. I know quite a few and they have no intention of ever going back. Life is far better for them in the UK.

Ukrainians need to get a grip and come into the real world. The EU is not a panacea to all their problems and given all the links to Russia they are asking for trouble by going against them. They should be trying to build closer ties to their mutual advantage or Russia will impose itself anyway and they'll be worse off than they would have been.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Poland's GDP per capita has increased by over 50% in the ten years since in joined the EU.

That's a fraction lower than Germany and Italy managed during the Wirtschaftswunder and Miracolo Economico of the 1950s and 60s.

What was your point again Mick?

[BigColSutherland]

Have you got the source for that info BST?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BCS
Yes. PM me if you want it.

PS: Have a word with your mate LJ Monk. He asked me that precise same question in a thread last year. And I had the sources for the data that time as well.

Do you lot have a hive mind over at Facebook/Twitter?

[BigColSutherland]

Sent. Many thanks.

[IC1967]

The EU has been bad for Poland. You give the impression that they have only grown because they are part of the EU. They would have grown anyway because they were coming from such a low base.

You need to speak to Polish people that have immigrated to England. Poland is doing crap and they much prefer living here even though we've just had a terrible recession (which Poland didn't). That should tell you something.

Longer term the mass exodus of Poland's young to work in other countries will do untold damage to their economy.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2013/11/poland-and-eu

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

If you were REALLY interested in adding to a discussion, you could easily go and find some numbers instead of spouting bullshit off the top of your head.

In the 5 years to 2004, Poland's growth rate per capita was 3%. In the ten years since joining the EU in 2004 (a period which has encompassed the worst European recession for at least 80 years), their growth rate per capita has been ~4.1%.

Now. Have you anything to add over and above your pub pore inanities?

[Curious Orange]

Have a word with your mate LJ Monk.

They can't stand each other.

[Filo]

Have a word with your mate LJ Monk.

They can't stand each other.

Strange behaviour for two people that attended a test match in Australia together

[IC1967]

In the 5 years to 2004, Poland's growth rate per capita was 3%. In the ten years since joining the EU in 2004 (a period which has encompassed the worst European recession for at least 80 years), their growth rate per capita has been ~4.1%.

So using your logic Poland's growth rate would have stayed at 3.0% if they hadn't joined the EU. That is very simplistic in the extreme. Instead it has shot up to a massive 4.1%. Wow. That's a massive difference.

You completely ignore the fact that the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU! This is a ticking time-bomb for them that will explode with devastating consequences in years to come.

If things are so great over there why did nearly all the Polish immigrants living in other European countries not return during the recession?

As they say there are statistics and damned lies.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

In the five years before Poland joined the EU, its population fell by half a million. In the ten years since, it's increased by half a million.

Keep going. You'll stumble on a fact eventually, in a monkeys and typewriter stylee.

[IC1967]

In the five years before Poland joined the EU, its population fell by half a million. In the ten years since, it's increased by half a million.

Keep going. You'll stumble on a fact eventually, in a monkeys and typewriter stylee.

Like I said there are statistics and damned lies. You seem to imply that the population has grown because of EU membership and this is a good thing that proves EU membership has been beneficial. You really are very simplistic in your reasoning.

There are many factors that affect whether a population grows or falls. For example, increased life expectancy, leading to an ageing population contributes to size of population.

A much more pertinent statistic is the birth rate. 5 years before joining the EU the birth rate was 382,000 per year. In 2013 it was 372,000. You wouldn't think this was the case would you listening to you. This decline is a much more valid statistic in the context of EU membership.

It's a good job I don't take what you say at face value. You use   statistics selectively to paint completely the wrong picture time and time again and evade questions.

It's a good job I'm around to keep you in line.

[BigColSutherland]

When I started this thread a month ago to discuss the protests in Kiev I certainly didn't expect it to morph into a discussion about the impact of EU membership upon the birth rate in Poland.

[IC1967]

I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.

[IC1967]

You completely ignore the fact that the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU! This is a ticking time-bomb for them that will explode with devastating consequences in years to come.

2.1 million people have left Poland since they joined the EU. If these people were still there their growth figures would be worse than the 3.0% they were getting before EU membership.

[RedRover45]

When I started this thread a month ago to discuss the protests in Kiev I certainly didn't expect it to morph into a discussion about the impact of EU membership upon the birth rate in Poland.

When people start threads about the Dons, I'm sure they don't think they'll be hijacked about Fathers Day and car boot sales...

[BigColSutherland]

I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.

The problem, once these chats descend into stats, is that anyone with a modicum of intelligence, can manipulate the numbers to suit their argument. It then turns into a war of attrition.

[Iberian Red]

I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.

Is that a bit like the selective use of quotes?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick lad. I didn't imply anything. I was merely countering your (demonstrably wrong) pub bore argument that "the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU!"

I didn't say anything about WHY the population had increased. If you confined yourself to discussing what people actually write instead of constantly demonstrating your infallible ability to mis-read what they think, you might do a better job.

You then bring up an opinion that (perhaps) the population has increased because of an ageing population. Well then, let's have a look at the employment market in Poland. If the economy was struggling, you'd expect there to be a drop in the number employed.

In the five years up to Poland joining the EU, Poland saw a drop of 17% in the number of people in employment. Since 2004 (despite the recession) the number of people employed has increased by 14%.

Now, just to explain to you. None of this is guaranteed to be due to Poland's membership of the EU. But it is clear Poland's membership of the EU has coincided with something approaching the economic miracles that Germany and Italy experienced in the decades after the War.

(Stick with it BCS - here comes the full circle bit...)
All of this gives some context to the desire of many Western Ukrainians to join the EU. Ukraine shares a long border with Poland. and there will be looks of envy from the western Ukrainians at what has happened in Poland over the past decade.

Ukraine's  GDP per capita has grown at a rate little more than half that of Poland's over the last decade (and from a lower base, so that's a finger in the air to that little theory of yours Mick).

On trade, Poland's exports have increased dramatically since joining the EU. They now export 3.5 times what they did ten years ago. Ukraine's exports have risen about two-fold.

On inflation, Poland has maintained a low-ish and stable inflation rate since joining the EU (typically 1-4%). Ukraine has had wild swings, from outright deflation to 30% inflation.

On population, Ukraine has truly experienced a mass emigration - they have lost over 2.5 million people in the last decade whilst Poland's population has grown.

Put all that together and you can see clearly why many people in the Ukraine would love to join the EU.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I blame Billy for selective use of statistics.

The problem, once these chats descend into stats, is that anyone with a modicum of intelligence, can manipulate the numbers to suit their argument. It then turns into a war of attrition.

BCS

I fundamentally disagree there. At the margin, there's something to be said for that argument. But there are some stats which are simply facts that need to be laid out to form the foundation of a sensible discussion. Without an agreed bedrock of numerical evidence, any discussion of this sort is just so much piss and wind and degenerates into a opinionated w**kfest. It is the reason why I get so het up when people insist on quoting "facts" and can't substantiate them, or quote numbers that are simply wrong.

[BigColSutherland]

Good luck getting Mick to agree that bedrock.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I know BCS. It won't happen. I just keep myself in training by this sparring.

[IC1967]

I didn't imply anything. I was merely countering your (demonstrably wrong) pub bore argument that "the growth figures look better because so many people left the country since it joined the EU!"

Yes you did. If things were so great why have 2.1million of there brightest and best left the country with most of them never planning to return? If that 2.1million had stayed put this would have affected their growth in a very negative manner because there would have been much more unemployment.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Mick. I didn't. You are over-reaching your mental capacity again spadger.

[IC1967]

If things were so great why have 2.1million of there brightest and best left the country with most of them never planning to return?

[IC1967]

On population, Ukraine has truly experienced a mass emigration - they have lost over 2.5 million people in the last decade whilst Poland's population has grown.

2.1million of Poland's brightest and best have left the country since joining the EU (most never to return).

[BillyStubbsTears]

Mick

The point is that whichever way you look at it (GDP growth, GDP growth per capita, trade, population, employment) Poland has done far better inside the EU than Ukraine has outside.

Agreed? Or do you have some astonishing information to the contrary?

[IC1967]

Stick 2.1 million on the dole queue in Poland and you'd have a very different story. There is the illusion of Poland doing well because so many people have been allowed to leave the country and go to  other EU countries. This will be disastrous for the country long term.

So the EU has not been good for Poland. Long term it will be very bad. Just ask Ireland, Greece, Spain, Portugal etc. The EU is only good for Germany.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes Mick. Goodnight.

[hoolahoop]

Only  58% of the 'Russian speaking' population could never supply a 97% Yes vote especially when many of these younger one's in interviews felt and wanted to be Ukrainian still..........42% of the non-Russian speaking wouldn't have voted at all. The chance of getting a 50% vote would have been strange let alone a 97% vote!!!

Depends on how many voted though, doesn't it?

I haven't seen the news lately, but if hardly any of the Ukrainian speakers voted and nigh on all the Russian speakers did, then that would be possible.

Anschluss, anyone?

I believe the figure quoted was that 78% of the electorate voted.
Given that 42% of the population were non Russian speaking population they would be highly unlikely to vote at all 'freely' .
The figures don't add up and these are the most warped  election figures that I've ever seen.