Final table based on form

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Thanks for summarising those matches.

Here's a thought experiment. Ignore our matches. Just look at some extreme worst-case outcomes of the others.

Scenario 1. Yeovil do v well and win all three. Charlton win all except Yeovil. Barnsley &Blackpool collapse and lose all games.

After those matches, Charlton are a point above us having played a game more than us.  Blackpool are a point above us having played 2 more than us. Yeovil are a point above us having played three more than us. Barnsley are 8 points behind us having played a game more.

Scenario 2. Barnsley & Blackpool win all. Yeovil & Charlton lose all except their match which  Charlton win.

Blackpool are safe.
Barnsley are 2 points behind us having played a game more.
Charlton are 2 behind us having played a game more than us.
Yeovil are 8 points behind us having played 3 more than us.

Scenario 3. Barnsley and Charlton win all games. Yeovil and Blackpool lose all except joint match which Blackpool win.

Charlton are 4 points above us having played a game more.
Blackpool are 4 points above us having played 2 games more.
Barnsley are 2 behind us having played a game more.
Yeovil are down and out.

Scenario 4. All draws.

Blackpool 3 points above us. Two matches more.
Charlton  2 points below. One match more.
Yeovil 5 points below. Three matches more.
Barnsley 6 points below. One match more.

None of those scenarios are utterly disastrous for us. 3 is the worst, but I could cope with any of the others.

In reality, I suspect there will be a scattering of wins and draws and we'll end up with something less bad than 3 and less good than 4.

[Nudga]

Jeez Billy, you need to get out more mate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nudga.

Live by numbers
Die by numbers
Eat by numbers
Shit by numbers
Shag by numbers.

You want to try it spadge.

Actually mate, I'm doing this to while away the hours that I have to spend lying down because of the f**king illness I've had for the past couple of months.

[Nudga]

I can't do numbers Billy, I have a mild case of Discalculia. Doing my paper work and quotes is a proper bas**rd.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Fed the fixtures of the bottom 7 clubs in to Squeekybumtime.com and here's the scenario coming in to the last game.

2 teams will have been relegated before last day fixtures being on 37 & 40 points after game 45.

3 teams will battle it out on the last day for the final relegation spot and will be on 43, 44 & 46 points respectively after game 45.

2 teams will be safe on 47 & 48 points after 45 games

Squeekybumtime.com says the 5 teams at risk are:- Barnsley, Millwall, Blackpool, Yeovil & Birmingham. 



 

[BobG]

Good old Squeekybumtime. Always liked Squeekybum me.

BobG

[bobjimwilly]

As a side question, why is the term squeekybumtime so often referred to as being coined by alex fergerson? People have been saying it for years before he was quoted as saying it?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BJM

A bit like: "Football eh? f***ing b*****d hell Kitsoning fire".

I were saying that constantly while driving back over the Pennines on Easter Monday 1988 after seeing Dave Mackay's finest get arseholed at Vale Park. I chose to go to that match instead of having a nailed on knee trembler with a fit lass from Meccy Grammar School 6th form. Daft t**t that I was.

That garrulous Scottish t**t uses a watered down version of it and it is seen as capturing the f***ing Zeitgeist.

[River Don]

Just an aside,

Like you BST my granddad lived in both Denaby and Mexborough but he never considered himself really Doncastrian. He went to watch his football in Barnsley and Sheffiled, he was one of those old blokes who didn't feel he needed to support one team. When I took him to see Rovers he thought they were crap, mind you they were then.

Anyway... How come you support Rovers and is it common to support Rovers in that neck of the woods?

[RedJ]

I know a few folk round there and quite a lot support Leeds and the Sheffields as well as Rotherham out that way, apparently.

[Dare to dream!]

Birmingham, Rovers and Blackpool wen't down on my first season on fm 49, 48 and 45 a very strong indicator of what's to come! Dickov got sacked too 

[RedJ]

probably not the best thing to use to judge - they usually get to high midtable after flirting with the playoffs on mine, with Dickov moving onto better things...

[IDM]

Wonder what these predictions will look like if/when Leeds go into administration?

[Donnywolf]

For me (personally) this is how I see it and would be happy to see it :

21 Rovers
22 Who gives a Donald Duck
23 Who gives a Donald Duck
24 Who gives a Donald Duck

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

There weren't many Donny fans round there in the 70s when I was a lad. Mainly because we were garbage and there were too many other nearby teams to chuck your lot in with.

Why did I choose Donny? We had it in the family. My grandad and dad supported both Donny and Sheffield Weds. They never saw a contradiction in supporting both of them. I could have easily become a Wednesday fan I suppose. My uncle played for them in the 70s and was a real terrace hero. A bit of a Chris Brown type - fearless centre forward who led the line and put his head in where other people wouldn't put their feet (it wrecked him as well - he finished his career early due to knee injuries and walked with a stick from his mid thirties).

I was taken to a couple of Wednesday matches as a 6-7 year old but it never grabbed me. I dunno why not - maybe it was too big and too much of a separation between the fans and the pitch? But from the first time I went to see Donny, I was hooked and I only pestered to go there from that time on.

[The Red Baron]

BST- was your uncle Mike Prendergast perchance? He was a Denaby lad.

At my junior school (in Hatfield) our sports master was a fervent Owl, although he did also go to watch Rovers. The school team played in blue shirts with white sleeves and white shorts, which were the Wendy colours at that time. He arranged a trip for us to go to Hillsborough- I seem to recall it was against Cardiff in the old Division Two. I went but didn't think the fare on offer was much better than that which was served up at Belle Vue, so my head was not turned!

Mind you, most of the lads at my secondary school ended up either active or armchair Leeds fans!

[BillyStubbsTears]

BST
That was him.

[BigH]

Back to the OP, if it helps, over the last 10 seasons those occupying the bottom 3-4 berths - and in most cases the bottom 3 positions - at this stage of the season are the teams that have gone down.

The only occasion when that trend was nearly broken was in 2008/09 when Norwich yo-yoed between 3rd from bottom and 5th from bottom around this stage of the season, eventually going down 3rd from bottom on 46 points. In that season, Plymouth finished 4th from bottom on 51 points although 47 points would have kept you up.

So, if history is anything to go by, it looks like it's on our side.

[Lytham Rover]

BST my mate reevsey was from Swinton and went to Swinton comp before decamped to balby but was always a donny fan
You wouldn't know him perchance?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bedale.

You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.

We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.

[swintonrover]

I live in that neck of the woods, at Swinton Comp myself. It's predominantly Rovrum fans who've jumped on the bandwagon, Owls and Blades. Hardly any Rovers or Dingles. And of course the obligatory Prem fans.

[scaley back rover]

Bedale.

You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.

We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.

He works in mysterious ways that god fancy only picking 4 and then sending some of them to milmoor how they must have sinned

[Sammy Chung was King]

Bedale.

You must be joking spadge. I was at the left-footer school up the road. We were told that if we spoke to the heathens from the Proddy school, Baby Jesus would shit on us.

We were few and far between out there though. My recollection is that there were four of us at Pope Pius school out of 500 who supported Donny. About 200 supported Barnsley, 100 supported Rotherham and a handful supported more distant teams. That was the early 80s when Rotherham and Barnsley were in the old Div 2 and seemed to have fantastic cup runs every year. Kind of toughens you up to life's slings and arrows, that sort of adolescence.

He works in mysterious ways that god fancy only picking 4 and then sending some of them to milmoor how they must have sinned

That was they're penance Scaley,plus he felt sorry for Rov'rum,he was being ''The Good Samaritan'' sending a few to Millmoor.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Update after tonight's games.

Final table based on last 8 form

Donny 54 points
Charlton 49
Blackpool 48
Barnsley 47
Birmingham 46
Yeovil 37
Millwall 37

Based on last 5 match form
Donny 55
Blackpool 50
Charlton 49
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 45
Millwall 36
Yeovil 36

On the surface, seems to be a bit of an uptick in the safety target compared to the last few weeks. I think that will vanish next week. Several teams won the 8th game ago. Unless they win next week, the points prediction for the third bottom team is going to come tumbling down.

Still sticking with 43-44 points as the target. Nearly there.

[RedJ]

I still think the bottom three is nailed on. I can only see Birmingham (as the 8 game form would suggest) falling into it from here. Barnsley will be the team that escapes if any.

[Lesonthewest]

So for the most pessimistic like me, what is the worst a team has done from the position we are in points wise for the final 7 games.

[The Red Baron]

Update after tonight's games.

Final table based on last 8 form

Donny 54 points
Charlton 49
Blackpool 48
Barnsley 47
Birmingham 46
Yeovil 37
Millwall 37

Based on last 5 match form
Donny 55
Blackpool 50
Charlton 49
Birmingham 46
Barnsley 45
Millwall 36
Yeovil 36

On the surface, seems to be a bit of an uptick in the safety target compared to the last few weeks. I think that will vanish next week. Several teams won the 8th game ago. Unless they win next week, the points prediction for the third bottom team is going to come tumbling down.

Still sticking with 43-44 points as the target. Nearly there.

I understand your caveat, but all your figures are telling me is that the safety target is more like 47-48. Which is what I've been saying all along.

However, I think we'll achieve that and possibly more. We only need to average a point a game now to get to 50, which will certainly be safe.

Charlton v Barnsley on 15th April could be a huge game in terms of deciding who finishes third-bottom.

[JonWallsend]

Just noticed the form table, based on the last 6 games, on the twitter feed. Knew we'd be doing well, and Leeds and Forest less so but surprised to see Yeovil 3rd bottom. In my mind they are flying.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I still don't see it. The bottom 2 have no chance of making 47-48 points.

Barnsley will do very well to get 12-13 points from the fixtures that they have left. They have a much harder run to come than the one they have had recently. They haven't beaten a team in decent form since early December, and they have a lot of in form sides to play.

We'll see...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jon

Yeovil haven't been in good form for several weeks. They had a decent mini-run at the end of Feb but that was it. They are a weak team who will finish in the bottom 2.