Scotland

[The Red Baron]

Just thinking- when this is all over can we have a referendum on independence for England? 

[coventryrover]

Taking the economics etc out of it (yes I know they have a massive influence) and go to the basic question.  If it was me I would vote yes because I would like my country run by a democratically .  Scotland doesnt fully have that yet.

[Filo]

Personally, if they want to go, let em, but for me it has to be a clean break, no handouts from England like now, they go it alone, and lets see how many come crying when it goes tits up

[not on facebook]

Will it not be very very Odd should the Jocks Get the Yes vote as in november England will play up in Glasgow in a  Friendly

That will Add furm to the fire as the NO Jocks might just support England
As a protest

[Rios]

Scotland's issues are no different to those of Yorkshire's.  Being governed by a London-centric parliament that's really not interested and in the past positively hostile towards the north you'd think people from this part of the world would have more understanding.  If Yorkshire was given the chance of being self-governing I'm betting more than a fair share of proud Yorkshire people would be all for it.

I can't see why Scotland would come "crying" back.  Even during it's recent financial strife Ireland went to Europe, not the UK, with the begging bowl and being part of the EU will be part of Scotland's plan too.  Yes, the country will be smaller and less significant on the world stage than as part of the UK, but if you talk to the average Yank they refer to the UK as England anyway.  Whether we like it or not, the UK, Britain and it's constituent parts are becoming less and less signifcant as the years role on.  Those that sit on the sidelines and bang on about how great the past was are likely to get left behind.  It'll be interesting to see if Scotland do break away and become members of the EU and then England vote to come out of the EU who would be the most isolated in the decades to come...

[Wild Rover]

It may surprise you Rios, UK bailed Ireland out along with EU and SEPERATELY. To the tune of a few billion.

[IC1967]

Scotland's issues are no different to those of Yorkshire's.  Being governed by a London-centric parliament that's really not interested and in the past positively hostile towards the north you'd think people from this part of the world would have more understanding.  If Yorkshire was given the chance of being self-governing I'm betting more than a fair share of proud Yorkshire people would be all for it.

I can't see why Scotland would come "crying" back.  Even during it's recent financial strife Ireland went to Europe, not the UK, with the begging bowl and being part of the EU will be part of Scotland's plan too.  Yes, the country will be smaller and less significant on the world stage than as part of the UK, but if you talk to the average Yank they refer to the UK as England anyway.  Whether we like it or not, the UK, Britain and it's constituent parts are becoming less and less signifcant as the years role on.  Those that sit on the sidelines and bang on about how great the past was are likely to get left behind. It'll be interesting to see if Scotland do break away and become members of the EU and then England vote to come out of the EU who would be the most isolated in the decades to come...

That's a no brainer. England would power ahead and the countries in the EU will continue to go backwards. Aren't you aware of what has happened to Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc in the EU? Why anyone would want this for Scotchland is beyond me.

[Rios]

It may surprise you Rios, UK bailed Ireland out along with EU and SEPERATELY. To the tune of a few billion.

I stand corrected.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Rios

Ireland shares a currency with the rest of the EuroZone. The EZ countries were the ones who dominated in the contributions to the Irish bailout, predominantly because it was their currency that was at risk if Ireland defaulted. We contributed a relatively small amount to the overall sum, predominantly because we do a lot of business with the EZ and it was very much in our interests to see the Euro survive (which it would not have done if Ireland had defaulted).

Scotland as an independent country is a totally different ball game. if we have a currency union with them and their economy goes tits up (as it surely would in 2008, given the inflated size of the banking sector relative to the Scottish economy - RBS, HBOS etc) then there is only one country that would be there to bail them out. Us. The EZ would flick us the rods because Scotland is insignificant to them.

So, if Scotland goes independent, but keeps the pound, we have no control over what they do, but all the responsibility for bailing them out if it goes tits.

Absolutely untenable.

So, if Scotland goes independent and wants a currency union, they only get one if they agree to rigid, binding rules on what they can do with their economy. Rules set by Westminster. A Westminster that now has no Scottish MPs. So, by going "independent", they have less control over their own destiny than they currently do.

THAT is the Big Lie that Salmond has been skirting around for the past couple of years. There is no such thing as "Scottish Independence" unless they have the balls to go the whole hog and have their own currency.

[River Don]

The thing is they can't just invent a new Scottish Groat on Friday. Creating a currency takes a bit of time, look how long they had the Euro running in parallel with the existing European currencies.

If Scotland unexpectedly does vote Yes on Thursday they would immediately have to put all these false arguments and scaremongering to one side. To protect the economies of both sides.

RBS, Lloyds, HBOS aren't really as Scottish as they're made out to be, they're British. That needs addressing.

The Scots will have to share the pound, there's nothing else for it. At least to give the Scots time to create a credible currency and central bank of their own and finally claim independence.

The only way though the Scots are going to be in a position to start preparing for full independence and create a new currency is to get a Yes vote now. If that's what they want.

There has always been the suspicion that Salmond actually wants to join the Euro but not right now, it's in such a mess. Joining the Euro would involve giving up Scottish independence to Brussels and that wouldn't be such a powerful message to send the Scottish people. And there are big hurdles to overcome in Europe with that one. The Spanish for instance don't like the precedent it would set.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

No suspicion about Salmond and the Euro. It was SNP policy up until the mid-00s. Salmond then slowly moved them away from outright desire to join the Euro, to a policy of keeping sterling until conditions were right for them to join the Euro (part of the New Gradualism approach that he so cleverly brought in - move to a radical new position gradually so as not to scare the horses). Then, after the Great Crash and the Euro Crisis, the SNP quietly shelved the "until conditions are right" bit and don;t talk about that now.

This is the same Salmond and the same SNP who, back in 2006/07, were crowing about how Ireland and Iceland were models for how an independent Scotland could run it's economy.

They are mendacious buffoons who make up policy on the hoof. The very worst kind of politicians. They operate on what I've heard called "policy based evidence making". You decide what policy you want, then you find evidence to fit it.

The SNP's stance on the effect of currency union basically is to say that the following people are wrong and are all plotting against them:
George Osborne
Ed Balls
Danny Alexander
Mark Carney
The IFS
Olivier Blanchard (Chief economist at the IMF)
Paul Krugman
Simon Wren-Lewis (Chief macro-economics prof at Oxford Uni)

Apparently all of the above are wrong and are conspiring to pull the wool over the Scots' eyes, whilst Salmond, the Ireland-admirer, the Euro-admirer is correct.

If there wasn't a small chance that 50% of Scots might actually be duped by this bas**rd on Thursday, it'd be hilarious.

[Sprotyrover]

It may surprise you Rios, UK bailed Ireland out along with EU and SEPERATELY. To the tune of a few billion.

£50 Billion to be exact and the Tax take for the whole of Eire is 22 billion Euro per annum.

[Sprotyrover]

On a positive note if they do go we can keep the clocks as summertime which will save well over £1 Billion in Power bills as there will be daylight from 4 while 5 In mid winter.

[Sprotyrover]

Apart from Whiskey going up in price the other good news would be all that Money that gets pumped up there will get pumped into the North!

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Polls all point to a no then.

[RedJ]

Ah but Mick knows best.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a prediction.

When the result is a NO win by 5-8% on Friday morning, Mick pops up and tells us that he was having a titter all along, and he lumped on NO. 

What a titterer.

[IC1967]

I'll be making thousands. I'll be on here on Friday morning with the exact figures. I'll be doing lots of tittering.

[RedJ]

How did you spend your winnings from the National?

[dknward2]

Can you post a picture or screen shot of said betting slip then we can see your telling the truth

[RedJ]

Can you post a picture or screen shot of said betting slip then we can see your telling the truth

Course he won't. He'll edit/delete posts as suits him, the way he did when he supposedly tipped the winner of the National, and the various other times he's been made a cock of.

[River Don]

I honestly believe Salmond will be happiest with a narrow No victory.

That way, he gets to screw as much out of Westminster as he possibly can he gets Devomax, which I think is really what he wants and he still has almost 50% of Scots wanting full independence.

They can then spend the next fifteen years pushing for the break from England, which they will hope they to do once the UK is safely inside the EU and they won't have to worry about currencies and shit.

[The Red Baron]

RD- I largely agree with you, although I doubt it will take 15 years before there is another referendum. It may be too soon to have one within the next Westminster Parliament (2015-2020) but I'll wager there is another soon after that.

Re the EU, do you mean "inside?" I rather thought that was the position at the moment! Although the EU could be the trigger for another referendum in Scotland. A bit unlikely, I admit, but if the Tories were to win the GE next year AND the EU referendum in 2017 saw a vote for the UK to withdraw it might fuel the Scottish independence campaign- especially if Scotland voted overall to stay in.

[River Don]

RB

I was just meaning Scottish 'independence' would be more easily won at a time when they had managed to save the Euro currency and the UK had adopted it first. Although then it still wouldn't really be Scottish independence then either but they'd sell it as that.

If such a state of affairs ever comes to pass. Personally I think the Euro still looks to be on a slow but inevitable road to failure.

[The Red Baron]

Personally I'd have thought there was more chance of a Tory victory in 2015 and a vote to leave the EU than there is of the UK joining the euro. Even the most vocal advocates of signing up to it are silent now.

Then again, I think there is more chance of Rovers winning 6-0 on Saturday and Theo scoring a hat-trick than there is of the UK joining the euro!

[River Don]

I agree RB

I'm just looking at the way club Med is sinking into deflation and dragging the entire Eurozone with it and the ECBs response to it. How long before the realisation dawns that such disparate economies can't live together?

No UK government is going to want to adopt the Euro while the EU economy still shows no real sign of stability.

I won't be surprised if the decision to join up fully isn't simply taken out of our hands because there won't be an EU in the form we recognise it today.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD

These economies CAN live together in the EZ. The economics of how it should work are really quite straightforward. First you need a central bank that adopts policy for the entire zone, rather than succumb to the frankly childish and irrational German fear of anything remotely resembling inflation. Then you need a system of fiscal transfers from fiscally strong to weak regions. It's that simple.

Of course it's the POLITICS that stops it happening. Specifically, the German attitude. They have benefitted hugely from a Euro which has given them an artificially depressed currency, and they refuse to countenance standing their side of the deal.

The bizarre thing about us in the UK is that we already have the requisite structure in place for a highly successful currency union. And now Salmond wants to rip that up and follow the political example of Europe. Quite mad.

[Filo]

"Germans fear inflation even more than life-threatening diseases like cancer."


http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/world-war-i-sowed-seeds-of-german-hyperinflation-in-1923-a-952143.html

[IC1967]

RD

These economies CAN live together in the EZ. The economics of how it should work are really quite straightforward. First you need a central bank that adopts policy for the entire zone, rather than succumb to the frankly childish and irrational German fear of anything remotely resembling inflation. Then you need a system of fiscal transfers from fiscally strong to weak regions. It's that simple.

Of course it's the POLITICS that stops it happening. Specifically, the German attitude. They have benefitted hugely from a Euro which has given them an artificially depressed currency, and they refuse to countenance standing their side of the deal.

The bizarre thing about us in the UK is that we already have the requisite structure in place for a highly successful currency union. And now Salmond wants to rip that up and follow the political example of Europe. Quite mad.

What a load of old cock. If only life were that simple. All the countries in the EZ are culturally different. They all have different priorities. It's obvious to anyone with half a brain that they are all never going to agree on a way forward for the Euro as they all want something different from it.

The main reason why your ill thought out solution won't work is because it is totally unfair that fiscally prudent countries should have to support fiscally imprudent countries. No way the fiscally prudent countries' electorates would stand for that and quite right too.

You really spout some drivel but this time I think even you have surpassed yourself in your naivety.

[IC1967]

Can you post a picture or screen shot of said betting slip then we can see your telling the truth

Modesty had prevented me from doing so as I didn't want to make you all jealous but you have impugned my honour so I will post the evidence you require. Now I would be grateful if you could issue an abject apology and in future take me at my word. Thanking you in anticipation of your cooperation.