Referendum prediction poll

[Dagenham Rover]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12167625/Emergency-migrant-brake-likely-to-face-Luxembourg-court-challenge.html

[Glyn_Wigley]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12167625/Emergency-migrant-brake-likely-to-face-Luxembourg-court-challenge.html

Unfortunately that is typical of the usual anti-EU article - lots of 'may' and 'likely' (ie 'may not' and 'just as unlikely') and absolutely no attributed official quotes (ie made up by the sub-editor).

[Filo]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/12167625/Emergency-migrant-brake-likely-to-face-Luxembourg-court-challenge.html

Reading that article, it's intesting that in 1963 the French, the Country we helped to liberate 18 years earlier veto'd our joining the forerunner of the EU, now they want us to stay, but on their terms. No thanks from me, lets decide our own destiny instead of some one from Brussells deciding it for us

[BillyStubbsTears]

Filo

You need to be aware of the context of that French veto.

DeGaulle had just been stupidly insulted by a senior American NATO Officer. DeGaulle had asked him for details of American nuclear weapons stationed on French soil. The officer refused to tell him. That caused a diplomatic kerfuffle which led directly to France pulling out of some of the NATO treaty obligations. It was bloody stupid because the officer simply had to refer back to the Pentagon or White House for authorisation. Instead, he egregiously insulted France.

Following on from that, America then decided to give Polaris ICBMs to Britain but not to France.

deGaulle saw Britain as effectively throwing its lot in with the USA and being against the interests of Europe. And perhaps with some justification.

That's the context for the veto in 1963.

[Donnywolf]

When was the last time British politics was about facts? This In/Out campaign seems to be built on emotion, from both sides. I agree DW, we need to have the facts, but I would be very surprised if either side presents too many of them. Expect plenty more "leap in the dark" and "risk of terrorism" rhetoric from both sides, sadly.

I am afraid you will be absolutely 100% correct !

[Donnywolf]

... and speaking of FACTS - how many times will Cameron say or use the phrase " within a reformed EEC"

What the hell has happened for it to be reformed ? The anti brigade are panning him saying the "deal" he has delivered is pitifully thin and I for one believe them

[The Red Baron]

Whatever view you take on leaving or staying, I think we can agree that it is disingenuous for anyone to claim that the EU is "reformed." At best Cameron has gained a few concessions over specific issues that matter to the UK. At worst, they may not amount to a hill of beans, especially as there is no guarantee that they can't be overturned by the European Parliament or the European Court of Justice.

The referendum really needs to be fought on the issues of whether the UK would be more prosperous and secure inside or outside the EU.

I wonder how many times we'll hear the phrase "leap in the dark" and its variants in the next 4 months?

[The Red Baron]

It's like the vote in Scotland all over again.

People generally don't like change, so there'll be enough votes to remain.

I think you are probably right, but so far there is a key similarly with the Scottish Referendum which may prove damaging to the Remain camp. They are focusing heavily on the negatives of leaving rather than the positives of staying in.

The Scottish campaign was, of course, fought over a much longer timescale- largely at the instance of the SNP. At the outset the polls showed a healthy lead for the unionists, but they played their hand so poorly that they frittered it away. In this case the polls are unclear, some giving a lead to one side, some to the other - although we've been in a phoney war so far. The polls next weekend will make interesting reading.

[DearneValleyRover]

we will stay in but unfortunately not for the right reasons, I expect all that will be achieved is a stay of execution for the EU.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Security is a bigger risk staying in, than coming out, there needs to be a points system that takes foreign workers in with skills. It can't be right that people who haven't paid into the countries coffers, are allowed to send money back to the country they came from, unless they worked for it.
Old people are being made to feel bad for living longer, why should they?, they paid money in and now they can't work they deserve to be looked after until their life ends.
This government has used hatred tactics, with foreign people, making out all are bad, people on benefits, encouraging people to be jealous because their neighbours light is on in the early hours, while they go to work in the dark, while the neighbour supposedly is laughing at them relaxing in bed.

What they didn't mention is the neighbour may have their light on because they can't sleep, either physical or mental pain. I cannot believe firstly how they got into power with the tactics they used 'Fear tactics', then how they continue to go after people who are most vulnerable in society.
 It doesn't get mentioned that some of these foreign men and women, are given wages far below what our people get paid, live in worse conditions than we do.

The theory that all foreign people have sky, first priority on everything, it might be right with some, but not all. I get the feeling many come here thinking 'The streets and lined with gold', and find a very cold inhospitible which they wish they never left their own country for!
That's why a points system would help with security, with making sure human beings aren't being used, because they are as human as you and me, and it would hopefully weed out the criminal element, that no doubt have already done damage on our streets.
I just won't be brainwashed, that all foreign people are bad, everybody unemployed is laughing at those working.
I don't believe it, somewhere in the middle is the answer, this goverment is encouraging extreme views, black or white, no grey areas, they are the cruelest goverment we have ever had!.

[The Red Baron]

This hadn't occurred to me until a friend yesterday commented to me on the "poor timing" of the referendum.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35631257

Smack bang in the middle of the Euros. Cameron might be depending on Woy and co!

[Donnywolf]

When was the last time British politics was about facts? This In/Out campaign seems to be built on emotion, from both sides. I agree DW, we need to have the facts, but I would be very surprised if either side presents too many of them. Expect plenty more "leap in the dark" and "risk of terrorism" rhetoric from both sides, sadly.

First 2 entrants in Referendum Bingo for sure !

"Leap in the dark"
"Risk of Terrorism"

... you can also add

"a leap into the unknown"
" I am not standing for re-election"
" a reformed Euorpe"

and "Brexit" which I already detest with a passion !

[The Red Baron]

When I first heard "Brexit" I thought they said  "Brix Smith" and I wondered if she was getting back with The Fall.

[The Red Baron]

More scare tactics this morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

[Glyn_Wigley]

More scare tactics this morning.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35636838

Funny that you should see it that way when the direct quotes in that article are the sort of positive stuff that you were saying (on the first page of this thread) that the remain camp should be using. Are you sure it's not the way that it's being reported that makes you think it's negative?

[bobjimwilly]

I don't think the OUT campaign can produce any facts, because no-one knows what the end result would be. That is the scary thing in all this; we, the electorate, are voting on something that no politician, civil servant, journalist or economist truly understands.

[Glyn_Wigley]

I don't think the OUT campaign can produce any facts, because no-one knows what the end result would be. That is the scary thing in all this; we, the electorate, are voting on something that no politician, civil servant, journalist or economist truly understands.

Did you hear Ken Clarke in the Commons yesterday? He put it very well I thought.

[bobjimwilly]

you got a link Glyn?

[Glyn_Wigley]

I heard it live on the radio as part of a PMQ but I've found the relevant bit in Hansard:

"Does he also agree that it is not the politics of fear to point out that those who advocate a no vote do not seem to know what a no vote means? They continually imply that all the benefits that flow from Europe in terms of jobs, investment and security will somehow continue to come here when they have swept away the obligations that previous British Government have always accepted."

[Lipsy]

Well, this has got me convinced...

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk</a>

[Mike_F]

One (fairly significant) consideration in this for me would be where we would stand in regard to TTIP if we leave. Would we escape the EU/US agreement?

[BobG]

Hardly Mike. Cameron and buddies are dead set for the thing. So if it did go the way of the wind, it's come back soon enough. Yet another reason the Labour Party should apologise to each and every citizen of this country.

BobG

[Yorkiered]

Michael Gove wants OUT so that's decided it for me.
I will definitely be voting IN

[Metalmicky]

Well, this has got me convinced...

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBi-KXc0CRk</a>

Is that our Eurovision entry.....?

[Donnywolf]

Michael Gove wants OUT so that's decided it for me.
I will definitely be voting IN

... yes but Osborne says REMAIN ... so that surely equals itself out ?

[The Red Baron]

Add to that Tony Blair says we should stay in. Now if he says the sun rises in the east every morning I would want to check for myself.

But seriously... People should make up their minds based on the arguments, not on which particular politicians are on either side.

[Donnywolf]

So true - Adrian ? McGuire did a great piece in D Mirror yesterday where he assassinated Cameron and Boris and was disgusted that one of them will be on the right side of the vote !

[The Red Baron]

It's a very valid point though, DW. A lot of people were put off the no campaign in 1975 because two of their leading lights were Tony Benn and Enoch Powell- now there were a couple of Marmite politicians - Boris, Farage and Galloway look tame in comparison. But look back at the arguments they made- that we were being sold a super-state disguised as a trading alliance - and history shows they were right.

You may not like Gove, but I'll wager that within two years the ECJ rules some aspect of Cameron's "reforms" out of order. If not the whole lot.

[Dagenham Rover]

You may not like Gove, but I'll wager that within two years the ECJ rules some aspect of Cameron's "reforms" out of order. If not the whole lot.

I'd be 100% certain on that one 

[bally1950]

In we go.... I would like to leave please, but I have a question which is very serious.

"Why are we having to wait until until 23rd June to put a cross in one of only two boxes on a piece of paper. The Irish Republic just three weeks ago....21 days no less called a General Election with multiple boxes on to be considered. This Friday 21 days later they are holding the Election nut why do we have to wait so long.

Just a thought...