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Author Topic: BREXIT  (Read 87559 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #240 on June 09, 2016, 10:57:32 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
So the multi party governing system that is currently in place will also be scrapped as part of the UK leaving the EU? Processes have been put in place that have been signed into constitution to hopefully stop some members of NI being effectively classed as second class citizens. Would an elected British Govt really risk changing this set up and relighting the fire just because it is no longer a member of the EU? I personally don't believe it would.

Missing the point. It's not about the top-down effect. It's about the bottom-up effect. What happens when the economy falters because of the economic effects of Brexit? What happens to the unemployed kids? And in an environment where a more militant British nationalism has been "vindicated"

Quote
Look at who is also suggesting this scenario. Enda Kenny, a man who is holding onto office in Ireland by his finger nails and should really have resigned following the recent election. John Major, the least said about him the better and Tony Blair who will hopefully get his comeuppance shortly. As opposed to the current NI First Minister who branded the comments "disgraceful" but her views don't sit with the remain point of view so I guess they don't matter.

Lovely. So three politicians that you disapprove of are spinning a line. But one who agrees with you is being fair and honest? Do you think that a senior DUP politician might have an agenda here? Putting the Catholics on the back foot and re-assuring the grassroots that DUP is first and foremost a UK-supporting organisation?

Or, just possibly, all people passionately believe in the truth of what they are saying, and we should look at the arguments on their merits?



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Dn2Dn0

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #241 on June 09, 2016, 11:07:05 pm by Dn2Dn0 »
So the multi party governing system that is currently in place will also be scrapped as part of the UK leaving the EU? Processes have been put in place that have been signed into constitution to hopefully stop some members of NI being effectively classed as second class citizens. Would an elected British Govt really risk changing this set up and relighting the fire just because it is no longer a member of the EU? I personally don't believe it would.

Look at who is also suggesting this scenario. Enda Kenny, a man who is holding onto office in Ireland by his finger nails and should really have resigned following the recent election. John Major, the least said about him the better and Tony Blair who will hopefully get his comeuppance shortly. As opposed to the current NI First Minister who branded the comments "disgraceful" but her views don't sit with the remain point of view so I guess they don't matter.

It's not the people who believe in the peace agreement who are the potential problem though - it's the ones who dont. There were Republican paramilitaries on the streets as recently as April - and protestants rioting with the police because they couldn't have their way in last years marching season. They may be a minority - but they are a bloody dangerous one.

Will a period of economic uncertainty cause social unrest and allow these fringe elements to recruit a new generation of unemployed, angry and frustrated youngsters who want to take out their frustration on someone somewhere? In Northern Ireland they dont have far to look.

I agree it is all part of 'Project Fear' to link this possibility up with the EU debate - but I wouldn't be so glib as to just laugh it off if I were you. History goes back a long way over there.

Not sure where I've been glib about anything or attempted to laugh anything off, I just don't see the purpose in attempting to use the NI peace process as a political football in the EU referendum debate. Agree there are, and possibly always will be, underlying fractions but we have just gone through one of the worst economic periods in modern history and I don't believe this was ever raised as a potential threat to the peace process.

I don't want to get into a debate on NI per say but it's just another example of 'Project Fear' as you aptly name it, rather than having a real debate. Do I believe Farages comments are disgusting and out of order for trying to stir up prejudices against immigrants, absolutely I do. Do I also believe using the NI peace process as a scare tactic, again yes.

Dn2Dn0

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #242 on June 09, 2016, 11:12:50 pm by Dn2Dn0 »
So the multi party governing system that is currently in place will also be scrapped as part of the UK leaving the EU? Processes have been put in place that have been signed into constitution to hopefully stop some members of NI being effectively classed as second class citizens. Would an elected British Govt really risk changing this set up and relighting the fire just because it is no longer a member of the EU? I personally don't believe it would.

Missing the point. It's not about the top-down effect. It's about the bottom-up effect. What happens when the economy falters because of the economic effects of Brexit? What happens to the unemployed kids?

Lovely. So three politicians that you disapprove of are spinning a line. But one who agrees with you is being fair and honest? Do you think that a senior DUP politician might have an agenda here? Putting the Catholics on the back foot and re-assuring the grassroots that DUP is first and foremost a UK-supporting organisation?

[/quote]

That was also my point and isn't that what you're doing? Believing the politicians who you agree with but seeing any that sees things differently as spinning a line?

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #243 on June 09, 2016, 11:34:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Not quite.

I'm giving you reasons why the politicians that I agree with might be right.

I've heard no such argument from Leave. All I've heard is immediate shouting down of anyone who disagrees with them. But no explanation of WHY they are wrong.

I set out reasons why *I* think that Brexit would be dangerous for NI peace and why, therefore, I agree with the judgement of Blair and Major and Kenny. And Obama.

If you disagree with the arguments I set out, tell me why. That's how it's supposed to work.

Dn2Dn0

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #244 on June 10, 2016, 12:10:41 am by Dn2Dn0 »
As I've said, I don't believe a vote to leave would cause a return to the troubles in NI due to the steps that have already been agreed with the multi party governing that is in place, even though you believe this is missing the point and isn't really relevant.

I also don't believe any elected govt would risk amending this agreement in light of the ramifications this would incur.

With regards bottom up, as I said, I don't recall the peace process being brought up as being under threat during the significant economic downturn and deep recession that the UK went through recently, so why would it be an issue in any economic down turn that would suffered following a leave vote? If you have evidence to show it was highlighted as being under threat then send me the link. Or is your argument because the British element in NI would be walking around with an inflated militant attitude due to not being a member of the EU?

A lot of work has been done on the peace process, work that was not dependent on EU membership, resulting in amendments to the constitution to put safeguards in place to hopefully arrest any slide back into the state of affairs that existed during the troubles.

I'm not sure what comments Obama made on the Brexit decision relating to the NI peace process so can't comment on this. If you think it's ok to use scare tactics and describe absolute worse case scenarios on a vote to leave then fair enough, but we'll have to differ on that.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #245 on June 10, 2016, 12:51:14 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Regarding Irish terrorism and the recession.

The economy started tanking and unemployment rising from 2007 (although, interestingly, having been the basket case of the U.K. for generations, unemployment in NI in the last recession was lower than in the North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the West Mids in the UK.)

Anyway. I digress. Issue is that in late 2008, Sir Hugh Orde, the head of PSNI (who started in that role in 2002) said that the terrorism threat was the highest in his term in office.

Have a look at the activity of the Real IRA in the period before the Great Recession and during/after it.

You might not have heard much about economic conditions being a threat to peace. It doesn't mean that the threat didn't increase substantially.

In 2008/09, Hugh Orde

Lipsy

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #246 on June 10, 2016, 01:00:27 am by Lipsy »
'Project Fear' they're calling this. Someone I know has just tried to pass this off as their own (I think it was 'authored' by a chap called Peter Giles), and it appeared on my Facebook page a little while ago. I have cross-referenced some of this (I can't - and can't be arsed - to do it all), but - feck me - some folks will believe just about anything. Apologies in advance for the length of this, but - hey - those who believe that we should remain are the scaremongers...

Those who Facebook will be seeing this over the next few days. Probably. 2,500+ shares and counting...

"Something for the IN voters to think about, look at how much we've lost since joining the EU. There's not a lot left !!!
Cadbury moved factory to Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved to Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover has recently agreed to build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, the same company who have trashed our steel works and emptied the workers pension funds.
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
Dyson gone to Malaysia, with an EU loan.
Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone to Poland with EU grant, once employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone to far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys and models now gone from UK along with the patents all with with EU grants.
Gillette gone to eastern Europe with EU grant.
Texas Instruments Greenock gone to Germany with EU grant.
Indesit at Bodelwyddan Wales gone with EU grant.
Sekisui Alveo said production at its Merthyr Tydfil Industrial Park foam plant will relocate production to Roermond in the Netherlands, with EU funding.
Hoover Merthyr factory moved out of UK to Czech Republic and the Far East by Italian company Candy with EU backing.
ICI integration into Holland’s AkzoNobel with EU bank loan and within days of the merger, several factories in the UK, were closed, eliminating 3,500 jobs
Boots sold to Italians Stefano Pessina who have based their HQ in Switzerland to avoid tax to the tune of £80 million a year, using an EU loan for the purchase.
JDS Uniphase run by two Dutch men, bought up companies in the UK with £20 million in EU 'regeneration' grants, created a pollution nightmare and just closed it all down leaving 1,200 out of work and an environmental clean-up paid for by the UK tax-payer. They also raided the pension fund and drained it dry.
UK airports are owned by a Spanish company.
Scottish Power is owned by a Spanish company.
Most London buses are run by Spanish and German companies.
The Hinkley Point C nuclear power station to be built by French company EDF, part owned by the French government, using cheap Chinese steel that has catastrophically failed in other nuclear installations. Now EDF say the costs will be double or more and it will be very late even if it does come online.
Swindon was once our producer of rail locomotives and rolling stock. Not any more, it's Bombardier in Derby and due to their losses in the aviation market, that could see the end of the British railways manufacturing altogether even though Bombardier had EU grants to keep Derby going which they diverted to their loss-making aviation side in Canada.
39% of British invention patents have been passed to foreign companies, many of them in the EU
The Mini cars that Cameron stood in front of as an example of British engineering, are built by BMW mostly in Holland and Austria. His campaign bus was made in Germany even though we have Plaxton, Optare, Bluebird, Dennis etc., in the UK. The bicycle for the Greens was made in the far east, not by Raleigh UK but then they are probably going to move to the Netherlands too as they have said recently.
Anyone who thinks the EU is good for British industry or any other business simply hasn't paid attention to what has been systematically asset-stripped from the UK. Name me one major technology company still running in the UK, I used to contract out to many, then the work just dried up as they were sold off to companies from France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, etc., and now we don't even teach electronic technology for technicians any more, due to EU regulations.
I haven't detailed our non-existent fishing industry the EU paid to destroy, nor the farmers being paid NOT to produce food they could sell for more than they get paid to do nothing, don't even go there.
I haven't mentioned what it costs us to be asset-stripped like this, nor have I mentioned immigration, nor the risk to our security if control of our armed forces is passed to Brussels or Germany.
Find something that's gone the other way, I've looked and I just can't. If you think the EU is a good idea,
1/ You haven't read the party manifesto of The European Peoples' Party.
2/ You haven't had to deal with EU petty bureaucracy tearing your business down.
3/ You don't care."
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 01:12:25 am by Lipsy »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #247 on June 10, 2016, 01:30:18 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Eeeh them f**king Europeans, eh? Nasty, grabbing bas**rds. Shame we've got nobody that savvy at the heights of British industry and finance...

Dn2Dn0

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #248 on June 10, 2016, 01:42:31 am by Dn2Dn0 »
Regarding Irish terrorism and the recession.

The economy started tanking and unemployment rising from 2007 (although, interestingly, having been the basket case of the U.K. for generations, unemployment in NI in the last recession was lower than in the North East, North West, Yorkshire and Humberside and the West Mids in the UK.)

Anyway. I digress. Issue is that in late 2008, Sir Hugh Orde, the head of PSNI (who started in that role in 2002) said that the terrorism threat was the highest in his term in office.

Have a look at the activity of the Real IRA in the period before the Great Recession and during/after it.

You might not have heard much about economic conditions being a threat to peace. It doesn't mean that the threat didn't increase substantially.

In 2008/09, Hugh Orde

You might not have heard much about economic conditions being a threat to peace. It doesn't mean that the threat didn't increase substantially.

Ok, I'll have to trust you on this one!

But my original point still stands, I think so anyway. By all means massage figures that relate to employment, how much pensioners will have left in their purse, how much we'll save from leaving, how much we'll lose from leaving. But when it comes to issues such as the peace process, if the politicians want to introduce it as an issue then they should be explaining why, rather than just presenting the doomsday scenario and leaving it at that.

It shouldn't be used as a one liner headline grabber designed to scare. They should have stated the reasons why it could happen and in reply why it couldn't happen.

Me and you have debated it tonight but I shouldn't have to be sat here googling "RIRA activity in 2008" at 1 in the morning!

I'm off to bed now, goodnight.

The Red Baron

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #249 on June 10, 2016, 07:45:24 am by The Red Baron »
For information, the Irish Republic is not in Schengen and the border issue was dealt with by a treaty of 1923.

Given how the Irish people were shafted over the Euro, I think if we voted to leave many of them would want to join us.

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #250 on June 10, 2016, 09:13:20 am by Glyn_Wigley »
For information, the Irish Republic is not in Schengen and the border issue was dealt with by a treaty of 1923.

But they are in the Single Market and therefore have freedom of movement.

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #251 on June 10, 2016, 09:15:49 am by Glyn_Wigley »
I've heard no such argument from Leave. All I've heard is immediate shouting down of anyone who disagrees with them. But no explanation of WHY they are wrong.

I think you'll like this quote from Arron Banks (Co-founder of Leave.EU) that was in the i newspaper yesterday:

'If turnout is low we win. If it's high, we lose. Our strategy is to bore the electorate into submission and it's working.'

So it's not about the facts in the slightest for them.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #252 on June 10, 2016, 09:19:05 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Dn

Aye. I was already fast asleep. But yes, that's how this sort of issue should be assessed. We should go beyond the headlines and read about issues. I couldn't agree more that both sides are using the scare headlines. My opinion though is that the Leave side are taking that to another level in their peddling of what they know to be utterly misleading information, and their disgraceful attacks on independent bodies who disagree with them.

TRB
It's not about Schengen. It's about the Single Market. Gove and Farrage (who appear to be making up policy on a whim each day) are now saying that we wouldn't have to stay in the Single Market [1]. But if we don't, then the NI/Ireland border becomes the border between the UK and the Single Market. So you need customs checkpoints there. And the freedom of movement across the border that currently helps the social and economic aspects of both countries will grind to a halt.

Just because the Brexit side is making up stuff as they go, it doesn't mean that the other side are equally culpable. There are real, deeply serious consequences to Brexit. If we stumble into the vote without thinking about them, we deserve everything we get. As with so many issues, the Leave side's response is, "Don't worry. It'll be alright." Which actually means, "we haven't thought about this and we don't want you to think about it either."

[1]Of course they are. Because one lie that they haven't been able to maintain is that we could stay in the Single Market but not have free movement of people. So we can't have a Switzerland arrangement. We can't have a Norway arrangement. We'll have a...oh, we'll sort it out later arrangement.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #253 on June 10, 2016, 09:22:27 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Glyn. That can't be right. I thought the leave side had high-minded principles about democracy and the need for British democracy to stand against the tyrants in Brussels.

As I've said before, they KNOW that their substantive points are all built on lies and half-truths. I wonder what the REAL purpose is behind their zeal to get us out of Europe?

The Red Baron

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #254 on June 10, 2016, 11:16:00 am by The Red Baron »
The Schengen point was in response to an earlier poster who claimed that the Republic was a member of Schengen.

As for customs, that would depend less on the Single Market and more on the arrangements negotiated between an independent UK and Ireland, something which might not please the Eurocrats but would be massively in the Republic's interests.

One key point about Remain: Their whole case appears to be based on the notion that the UK is fundamentally weak. So while the EU would go on its merry way without us, we would be bankrupt. I do not believe that to be the case. Far from it.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #255 on June 10, 2016, 11:36:15 am by BillyStubbsTears »
NO TRB.

It would NOT work like that. Ireland is in the Single Market. Ireland will STAY in the Single Market. Therefore the border between NI and Ireland will be de facto a border between the UK and the Single Market.

Ireland could not independently negotiate its own deal with a third party without being kicked out of the Single Market.

As I say, yet another example of the Leave side simply not thinking through the consequences of Brexit.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #256 on June 10, 2016, 11:42:27 am by BillyStubbsTears »
And by the way, you're setting up straw men. No one says that we are fundamentally weak. No one says that we would be bankrupt outside the EU. It doesn't help that you set up arguments that haven't been made to attempt to strengthen your own case.

What I personally believe, and what I've seen time and again from the Remain side is that we would be substantially better off and safer inside the EU. The sky wouldn't fall in if we left. There WOULD undoubtedly be a sharp initial recession. I don't think anyone disputes that, and that in itself seems like a very foolish thing to wish upon yourself. But after that, we would find ways to make our situation work. It just wouldn't work as well as it would have done by staying in. We'd be on a worse trajectory (which would compound on the fact that we've already dropped onto a worse trajectory of economic growth due to the stupidity of Austerity. (see here and expand the timescale to MAX http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita)

It'd be a long, slow decline, not a collapse. My grandkids would inherit a fundamentally worse UK than they needed to do.

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #257 on June 10, 2016, 11:46:39 am by Glyn_Wigley »
One key point about Remain: Their whole case appears to be based on the notion that the UK is fundamentally weak. So while the EU would go on its merry way without us, we would be bankrupt. I do not believe that to be the case. Far from it.

Why would we be bankrupt? We'd be disadvantaged in the market place but not bankrupt. Another example of hyperbole like Farage's, perhaps?

As for the UK being weak, it's not about the UK being weak, it's just a fact of life that trading entities (whether that is individual countries or a bloc) that are smaller than who they are negotiating with are always at a disadvantage. Leaving the EU trading bloc would put us at a substantial disadvantage in negotiating trade deals compared to being part of the EU bloc. If you think differently I'd love to hear the logic behind it.

The Red Baron

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #258 on June 10, 2016, 11:56:43 am by The Red Baron »
The EU is not a trading bloc, though. It was when we joined it but it is now a Federal Super-state in the making. Had it remained a trading bloc, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

And you are ignoring the fact that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. I can't see them wanting to cut off one of their biggest and best markets.

Glyn_Wigley

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #259 on June 10, 2016, 12:25:27 pm by Glyn_Wigley »
The EU is not a trading bloc, though. It was when we joined it but it is now a Federal Super-state in the making. Had it remained a trading bloc, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

And you are ignoring the fact that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. I can't see them wanting to cut off one of their biggest and best markets.

The EU IS a trading bloc. It might have become more than that now but it still IS a trading bloc when dealing with non-EU members and it therefore has more power in trade negotiations that the UK has on its own.

And please please please stop thinking that the UK outside the EU wil get something other countries outside of the EU don't get. We won't, no matter how much the Brexiters keep deluding themselves and others. Yes, the EU will keep trading with the UK but the costs of both imports and exports will go up unless the UK has the same arrangement as Norway - but that comes with freedom of movement attached and there will be no exception from that for the UK. However, the assumption that Brexiters have that once the UK leaves the EU that the EU will then bend over backwards and give the UK whatever it wants is Little Englandism of the worst kind - the EU will negotiate the best deal for THEM, and bugger what the UK wants. We won't get Full Free Trade without being in the Single Market. Even if we get EC Tariff Preference (which would only be for goods deemed to be of UK origin, the rules for which are incredibly complex) there are still costs in going through Customs both ways as even though there may not be any Customs Duty liable, a Customs Declaration has to be made to record the movement of the goods - whch doesn't have to be made when in the Single Market. Freight Forwarders charge about £100 per consignment to process Customs Declarations....
« Last Edit: June 10, 2016, 12:28:44 pm by Glyn_Wigley »

wilts rover

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #260 on June 10, 2016, 05:38:35 pm by wilts rover »
The EU is not a trading bloc, though. It was when we joined it but it is now a Federal Super-state in the making. Had it remained a trading bloc, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

And you are ignoring the fact that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. I can't see them wanting to cut off one of their biggest and best markets.

What you are in effect saying there TRB is that we can withdraw £350m per week (Vote Leave figures) from the EU Budget and there will be no repercussions for us. Do you really believe that? Why?

Because rational thought - and the German Finance Minister - think otherwise:

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

“That won’t work,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel. “It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #261 on June 10, 2016, 05:54:04 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Interesting how Gove, that very particular wordsmith is using his words in that article.

He's pushing the line that "we will still have access to the Single market after Brexit.

Of course we will. That is bleeding obvious. Amazonian rainforest dwellers can buy and sell into the single market if they want to.

The issue is, at what cost?

This is all very reminiscent of the Scottish referendum. Salmond crowed about how "We can keep the Pound." That was never in question. They could use whatever they wanted as a currency. Pounds, dollars, Turkish Lira or Irn-Bru bottle tops. Anything. The real question was "at what cost?"

Mind, back to your main point Wilts, I have to say that the idea of Schaueble wading into the debate is enough almost to drive ME to join Leave. The man is a t**t who bears more responsibility than anyone for the Greek tragedy. He's a bully and an obsessed ideologue. He's pushing this particular line too far. It is perfectly possible for the UK to have a Swiss or Norweigian deal outside the EU. Although the Leave don't want that anyway as it would require acceptance of freedom of movement. So it's a pointless discussion and he should have just kept his oar out.

The Red Baron

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #262 on June 10, 2016, 06:24:16 pm by The Red Baron »
The EU is not a trading bloc, though. It was when we joined it but it is now a Federal Super-state in the making. Had it remained a trading bloc, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

And you are ignoring the fact that we buy more from the EU than they buy from us. I can't see them wanting to cut off one of their biggest and best markets.

What you are in effect saying there TRB is that we can withdraw £350m per week (Vote Leave figures) from the EU Budget and there will be no repercussions for us. Do you really believe that? Why?

Because rational thought - and the German Finance Minister - think otherwise:

Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union.

In an interview in a Brexit-themed issue of German weekly Der Spiegel, the influential veteran politician ruled out the possibility of the UK following a Swiss or Norwegian model where it could enjoy the benefits of the single market without being an EU member.

“That won’t work,” Schäuble told Der Spiegel. “It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw.

“If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people.”


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

I don't believe there will be no repercussions. However I don't think they will be anything as severe as the worst-case scenarios that the Remain campaign has put out. Largely because of the way that the Euro has worked out. Of course, that could change, but one of the reasons I'm voting Leave is because the EU is fundamentally (psychologically?) unable to adapt to changing circumstances.

And I would agree with BST, Schauble's intervention is not helpful to Remain, even though he probably intended it to be so.

Lipsy

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #263 on June 10, 2016, 07:20:20 pm by Lipsy »
I am beginning to draw the conclusion that we'll vote to leave. My gut's been thinking that for the last week or so, and now we're hearing more and more that 'Leave' is pulling away.

That said, I was sure that Scotland was going to vote for its independence.

i_ateallthepies

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #264 on June 10, 2016, 08:29:17 pm by i_ateallthepies »
Lipsy, I'm with your conclusion on the vote but then I have been all the way through.  My reasoning being nothing more sophisticated than the fact that there are enough people amongst the working classes in this country sufficiently gullible to vote in a tory government, and the same gullibility will see them voting us out of the EU.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #265 on June 10, 2016, 08:40:43 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
It's what happens when you have for two generations, a culture which supposes that all people in public service are corrupt liars. It's a really, really dangerous attitude to take root in a democracy. It leaves you wide open to snake oil salesmen like Farage or Trump coming along, putting an arm round your shoulder, saying, "Yes, we understand that you are getting a shit deal. Yes, we agree that 'The Estsblishment' works against you. It works against us too. Yes we know that it's the Pakis/Poles/Mexicans who are to blame. The Establishment will never admit that. They wouldn't because they are all liars and in it for themselves.  But you and I know it don't we."

That's what's been happening on both sides of the pond. Trump is within touching distance of the White House. Farrage is within touching distance of starting to bring the European project crashing down.

And I've STILL heard no-one from the Leave side say why it is they think that Farage never has a bad word to say for Putin.

Lipsy

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #266 on June 10, 2016, 09:02:03 pm by Lipsy »
Part of what keeps the wolves away from the door here at chez Lipsy involves a certain amount of social media and, whilst I appreciate that you can't always take too much from the invisible tub-thumpers, some of the stuff I am reading and seeing is positively depressing.

That said, on my own Facebook page my cousin's husband has just shared something pretty vile referring to Eddie Izzard as a 'she' (complete with a picture of him in his current choice of attire) as a legit reason to vote out. That's the level we're at with this right now. Grim and pathetic.

Historically-speaking, we've often held ourselves in the middle when our neighbours have veered to the right - that's what I have been reminding myself. I just don't think that's going to happen this time and the fact that we don't have a credible leader of the 'Remain' campaign really doesn't help.

turnbull for england

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #267 on June 10, 2016, 09:07:39 pm by turnbull for england »
Id just like to say that thread,  and the information in it has enabled me to make my mind up, vote posted  cheers lads and lasses

RobTheRover

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #268 on June 10, 2016, 11:34:45 pm by RobTheRover »
Lipsy, I'm with your conclusion on the vote but then I have been all the way through.  My reasoning being nothing more sophisticated than the fact that there are enough people amongst the working classes in this country sufficiently gullible to vote in a tory government, and the same gullibility will see them voting us out of the EU.

Agreed 100%.  The working classes are being conned by the 1% to think they can be like them too.   The impossible dream.

BobG

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Re: BREXIT
« Reply #269 on June 11, 2016, 12:27:48 am by BobG »
I'm saddened too by the fact that such a lot of thuis debate, nationally I mean, has been reduced to 'cost'. I'll be better off if we're in - or out - depending upon your point of view. For me, cost, money, drinking tokens, is the absolute least important thing that matters. We couldn't avoid retreating from Splendid Isolation a 100 years ago. And we were, relatively speaking, pretty rich back then both financially and militarily. Now we have neither in such abundance. Yet the threats have multiplied like topsy. There is a dangerous, dangoerus man sitting in the Kremlin. There are dangerous people who, one day, will find a way to bring mass destruction to the shores of the west. There is economic imperialism of the very worst kind leaching across the Atlantic. And we think we can stand by outside the halls of power? It's delusional.

BobG

 

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