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GlynYou’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 03, 2017, 10:45:28 pmGlynYou’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome. There may be a canny way out of this though: say that there's no way of agreeing a soft border with things as they are. The only way to have a soft border is for NI to be part of the Single Market (there'd still be a hard border with just the Customs Union) or even full memebers of the EU. So, in order for NI to be able to that, threaten the DUP with a referendum in NI. Either (a) things stay as they are and there's a hard border, or (b) NI becomes independent (although with the Queen still Head Of Stare, like Australia etc.) and can join the SM/EU on it's own terms and there's a soft border.Either the DUP calls the bluff and there's the potential for the first break from the UK being put into the electorate's hands and not theirs; or they start to be more flexible and possibly agree to the hard border being between NI and the rest of the UK.Then whatever happens it can be spun that the DUP are the villians of the piece and not Westminster.
But that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on December 04, 2017, 11:30:47 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 03, 2017, 10:45:28 pmGlynYou’re assuming there’s an economic logic to Unionism. At the bottom line, Unionism will always put sovereignty before economics. And so it would be horrific for the Unionists to see an Ireland that was economically unified and separate from GB working successfully. History suggests that the Unionists would take (Carson’s old threat) “all means possible” to thwart that outcome. There may be a canny way out of this though: say that there's no way of agreeing a soft border with things as they are. The only way to have a soft border is for NI to be part of the Single Market (there'd still be a hard border with just the Customs Union) or even full memebers of the EU. So, in order for NI to be able to that, threaten the DUP with a referendum in NI. Either (a) things stay as they are and there's a hard border, or (b) NI becomes independent (although with the Queen still Head Of Stare, like Australia etc.) and can join the SM/EU on it's own terms and there's a soft border.Either the DUP calls the bluff and there's the potential for the first break from the UK being put into the electorate's hands and not theirs; or they start to be more flexible and possibly agree to the hard border being between NI and the rest of the UK.Then whatever happens it can be spun that the DUP are the villians of the piece and not Westminster.I think Scotland would be wanting whatever NI get in concessions
Win-win for the UK it seems to me.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 04, 2017, 12:31:59 pmBut that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.Win-win for the UK it seems to me.Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.
GlynBut how on earth can this Govt threaten the DUP with anything?
Quote from: Glyn_Wigley on December 04, 2017, 12:49:57 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 04, 2017, 12:31:59 pmBut that ignores the paramilitary aspect Glyn. That is at least as important as the conventional political fallout.Both sides have historically seen Northern Ireland as a zero-sum game. If you are winning, we are losing. The genius of the Good Friday Agreement was that it gave just enough to each side to keep an equilibrium. The moment you tip that either way, you have destroyed the balance and given one side the potential to feel that they are losing out.So if there's a hard border in Ireland, the Republican's will be pissed off and if there's a hard border in the Irish Sea, the Unionists will be pissed off. Either one of those outcomes disturbs the balance of the GFA and runs the risk of the men with guns coming back to argue the case for the side that feels it has lost out.If the vote is to stay the same, there's nothing for the paramilitary to get annoyed about. If NI vote for independence, it's not the UK's problem any more, it'll be the DUP's assuming they still hold power. And what would the paramilitary hope to expect to get out of the DUP?It won't be the UK tipping anything one way or the other, it'll be the NI electorate themselves.Win-win for the UK it seems to me.Besides, I didn't say have a referendum, I said threaten the DUP with one.But there won't be a referendum on independence. Nobody (well, apart from a tiny minority of Ulster nationalists, which is an odd concept) wants Northern Irish independence. Some want Irish unification, the majority (for now anyway) want to remain part of the Union.Which then leads right back to the paramilitaries.
Belgian MEP Philippe Lamberts told the BBC's Laura Kuenssberg that the UK had made a concession on the Irish border.The BBC's political editor said Mr Lamberts had said the UK was prepared to accept that Northern Ireland may remain in the EU's customs union and single market in all but name. But, she stressed, the BBC has not seen the draft document nor has it been signed off.
“We note the speculation emanating from the European Union exit talks regarding the Republic of Ireland and United Kingdom border. "We have been very clear. Northern Ireland must leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the United Kingdom."We will not accept any form of regulatory divergence which separates Northern Ireland economically or politically from the rest of the United Kingdom."
My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.
Is there any possibility that if the UK remains in the customs union and single market it might actually prosper more out of the EU than in it?
It seems rumours of a deal have been exaggerated. Nothing agreed today. It will be interesting to hear where we go now.
I would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me. I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.
The biggest bollock dropped is triggering article 50 without having a clear and detailed plan worked out
Quote from: The Red Baron on December 04, 2017, 03:31:20 pmI would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me. I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.TRB. In any sane world we would.1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 04, 2017, 04:16:24 pmQuote from: The Red Baron on December 04, 2017, 03:31:20 pmI would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me. I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.TRB. In any sane world we would.1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing. My view is that May won't be around as PM a lot longer. In fact, I'm not sure this Government will survive for more than six months. If the "deal" they discussed in Brussels today pisses off the DUP, then it could be less than six months.
Quote from: The Red Baron on December 04, 2017, 04:36:23 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 04, 2017, 04:16:24 pmQuote from: The Red Baron on December 04, 2017, 03:31:20 pmI would be surprised if they hadn't run it past the DUP. Then again, nothing would surprise me. I think it is an attempt to kick the can down the road. Neither side wants to be seen to be walking away from the Brexit talks, and unless they find some way of moving forward there would be nothing to talk about in January.My gut feeling is that the UK will remain in the SM and CU. I predict an awful row about it, but I now think that is where we will end up.TRB. In any sane world we would.1) It solves the Irish problem at a stroke.2) It removes the worst of the immediate economic downsides.3) There is a majority in the country and in Parliament for that outcome.The one and only reason that we're even in the current situation is that May chose to interpret "Brexit means Brexit" in that way, to appease her right wing. My view is that May won't be around as PM a lot longer. In fact, I'm not sure this Government will survive for more than six months. If the "deal" they discussed in Brussels today pisses off the DUP, then it could be less than six months.Have the DUP got all of their bribe - sorry, monetary incentive to support the government - money yet?