A-Levels

[BillyStubbsTears]

Looking like a right f**k up, the way this has been handled.

Basically, with exams being cancelled, they are going on teachers' opinions of what students would have got.

But it's generally thought that teachers have inflated opinions of their own students' abilities. So the marks that teachers gave students have generally been pushed down by the Govt-designed algorithm.

So you get idiotic outcomes like this, which are truly life-changing and not in a good way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emilypettite/status/1293823551506731008

And here's the rub. The "algorithm" doesn't apply that downgrade for students who were taught in groups of 15 or less. Because it's said to be not statistically sensible to do that.

So, students taught in small classes get the results their teachers' predict.

And which schools typically teach in small classes? Fee-paying I dependent schools for the children of the wealthy of course.

And go on...have a guess what has happened to A-A* grades for students from Independent schools.

Go on. Have a guess.









They've gone up from 44% last year to 49% this year. While brilliant kids from comps in Hartlepool like the one in that tweet are being systematically downgraded.

Independent fee paying school are the only ones who have seen an increase in A and A* results outside the normal year to year variations. So one outcome of COVID is that the rich will see their kids get more chance of securing places at the elite Universities and setting themselves up for life.

Class warfare, right under your noses. By the Govt that conned northern working class people that it is on their side.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Another one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1294039444446752771

[Filo]

Take the advice of this t**t born into privilege

https://twitter.com/jimbethell/status/1293905136687804417?s=21

[BillyStubbsTears]

Absolute f**king bell end.

"I f**ked up despite the silver spoon I was given. Taught me how to bullshit my way through life instead of contributing something tangible."

[Filo]

Absolute f**king bell end.

"I f**ked up despite the silver spoon I was given. Taught me how to bullshit my way through life instead of contributing something tangible."

Yes he must think we’re all as stupid as him, he took his A-Levels and f**ked up, this years crop never got the chance to do them but still got penalised

[River Don]

I've told ours not to take anything for granted this year, all the course work, tests and mocks  need to be taken seriously, if she wants to go to the type of uni she's set her heart on.

Because come the summer, the exams might not even happen and then you're at the mercy of this lot. So the stats throughout the year have to be consistntly good.

As if the pressure wasn't bad enough already.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I can't begin to imagine how the 5th Baron Bethell managed drag himself up by his bootstraps from his humble and scarred beginnings, having the overwhelming disadvantage of being educated at Harrow and nothing but extensive family contacts to fall back on when he had to "hustle his way into University".

I truly fail to grasp why every student who has been f**ked over by this Govt's A-Level algorithm can't get off their arse and hustle their way into an elite University. They must be f**king bone idle.

And to think, there are still folk who genuinely believe the Tories are on the side of the little person.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good luck RD. But things will only change if enough folk start screaming about this utter disgrace.

[River Don]

Doesn't that weighting towards those being taught in smaller class sizes implicitly undermine the government's longstanding assertion that larger class sizes in the state sector don't affect the quality of teaching?

I rather think it does.

[BillyStubbsTears]

RD.
I think it's a different issue. The argument is that in large cohorts, you can have an expectation of the average performance year-on-year. So if the teachers' predictions are way outside that, you pull them back into line by adding a correction to the grades. And there is an argument that that statistical approach shouldn't work with small groups, because there's less certainty that a small group is representative of what you'd expect as an average. 

2 problems with that.

1) The algorithm is obviously f**king useless if a student who got AAA in mocks, and A*A*A in predicted grades gets awarded BBC.

2) That approach doesn't apply any correction at all to small group cohorts. And it's clear that fee paying Independent schools have over-predicted the grades of the rich kids and had it nodded through.

This is truly outrageous.

[BillyStubbsTears]

And another one.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KateClanchy1/status/1293934966703820803

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

It's an impossible task and they've got a lot right, but also a number wrong, exactly what you'd expect. It's an impossible situation.  I think the weighting for independent schools is questionable, but actually when you compare the rest it overly doesn't look too outrageous.

The big problem is how do you treat the outliers in schools. My school was a failing school with really low grades. I'd have been screwed in this situation.  What they need to do is apply a sensible appeals process and quickly for those examples.  On a whole the numbers look fine, but not analysing each case is wrong in my view.

[turnbull for england]

And another https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1293969480046059520?s=19

[Pliskin]

It's not just an English scandal this though is it?

The calculation of results in Scotland (SNP administration) also produced outcomes which benefitted those from more affluent areas. They have obviously now u-turned and gone with the teachers' estimates, which has produced a significantly inflated set of results compared to previous years.

I'm not sure which is worse, although the latter is more politically beneficial to the Scottish govt in the short term.

And similar to England, 40% of Welsh students have also had their results downgraded under the Labour administration, although there doesn't yet appear to be any figures on whether this benefits schools in more affluent areas.

It just seems obvious that there is no fair way of producing a legitimate set of exam results without the actual exams taking place.

[belton rover]

It's an impossible task and they've got a lot right, but also a number wrong, exactly what you'd expect. It's an impossible situation.  I think the weighting for independent schools is questionable, but actually when you compare the rest it overly doesn't look too outrageous.

The big problem is how do you treat the outliers in schools. My school was a failing school with really low grades. I'd have been screwed in this situation.  What they need to do is apply a sensible appeals process and quickly for those examples.  On a whole the numbers look fine, but not analysing each case is wrong in my view.

I totally agree BFYP. It IS an impossible task. There is never going to be a perfect solution, partly because some people won’t allow there to be. Hopefully, this unprecedented (yes, that word again) academic year will allow an appeals process that will even things out a little and the qualifications for our young people will be as fair and as accurate as can be.

[Superspy]

What happened to the triple-lock thing they were talking about the other day where they were saying students would only get grades as low as their mocks or something? What have I missed?

[BillyStubbsTears]

It's not just an English scandal this though is it?

The calculation of results in Scotland (SNP administration) also produced outcomes which benefitted those from more affluent areas. They have obviously now u-turned and gone with the teachers' estimates, which has produced a significantly inflated set of results compared to previous years.

I'm not sure which is worse, although the latter is more politically beneficial to the Scottish govt in the short term.

And similar to England, 40% of Welsh students have also had their results downgraded under the Labour administration, although there doesn't yet appear to be any figures on whether this benefits schools in more affluent areas.

It just seems obvious that there is no fair way of producing a legitimate set of exam results without the actual exams taking place.

Inflation against previous or future years is irrelevant. The certificates will always have "2020" stamped on them and future employers will be stupid not to take that into consideration.

What is FAR more important is fairness across THIS year cohort, in terms of University access. The Govt had had 5 months to get that right and they have totally f**ked up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I agree that this was a tough one to get perfectly right.

But you could have put good money on the outcome being one that systematically favoured independent schools, couldn't you?

[belton rover]

It's not just an English scandal this though is it?

The calculation of results in Scotland (SNP administration) also produced outcomes which benefitted those from more affluent areas. They have obviously now u-turned and gone with the teachers' estimates, which has produced a significantly inflated set of results compared to previous years.

I'm not sure which is worse, although the latter is more politically beneficial to the Scottish govt in the short term.

And similar to England, 40% of Welsh students have also had their results downgraded under the Labour administration, although there doesn't yet appear to be any figures on whether this benefits schools in more affluent areas.

It just seems obvious that there is no fair way of producing a legitimate set of exam results without the actual exams taking place.

Inflation against previous or future years is irrelevant. The certificates will always have "2020" stamped on them and future employers will be stupid not to take that into consideration.

What is FAR more important is fairness across THIS year cohort, in terms of University access. The Govt had had 5 months to get that right and they have totally f**ked up.

I don’t think in years to come the year of the qualification will really matter at all.

However, if it did, what would future employers be considering? If you are right about private v state schools and this being totally unfair to working class northerners, then employers would be looking more favourable towards the working class because they will be aware that they are better than their 2020 grades suggest.

You can’t have it all ways.

[belton rover]

I agree that this was a tough one to get perfectly right.

But you could have put good money on the outcome being one that systematically favoured independent schools, couldn't you?

But isn’t that always the outcome? (I haven’t got the statistics to back this up, just an educated guess)

[Pliskin]

It's not just an English scandal this though is it?

The calculation of results in Scotland (SNP administration) also produced outcomes which benefitted those from more affluent areas. They have obviously now u-turned and gone with the teachers' estimates, which has produced a significantly inflated set of results compared to previous years.

I'm not sure which is worse, although the latter is more politically beneficial to the Scottish govt in the short term.

And similar to England, 40% of Welsh students have also had their results downgraded under the Labour administration, although there doesn't yet appear to be any figures on whether this benefits schools in more affluent areas.

It just seems obvious that there is no fair way of producing a legitimate set of exam results without the actual exams taking place.

Inflation against previous or future years is irrelevant. The certificates will always have "2020" stamped on them and future employers will be stupid not to take that into consideration.

What is FAR more important is fairness across THIS year cohort, in terms of University access. The Govt had had 5 months to get that right and they have totally f**ked up.

Surely inflation matters when there is an upper limit, i.e. you can't get a higher grade than A*?

Even if the year is taken into consideration, if more people get A* then there's still less of a distinction between those with inflated grades and those who would've achieved it anyway.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton.

By a long,long way, the most important aspect of A-Levels is their role in allocating university places in a given year. Everything else is a long, long way secondary to that. We have set up a system that has demonstrably advantaged independent school kids over state school kids on that issue. There will be thousands of independent school kids who win university places (and all that means for future life prospects) ahead of state school kids who should have won those places.

The role of A-Levels in securing jobs in far distant future years (when you think employers might have forgotten about COVID - I disagree by the way, I'd be amazed if this year isn't seared onto our memories) is a tiny issue by comparison.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pilskin

Ok, so if you accept that argument, why isn't it also applied to small cohort groups, who haven't had their results downgraded?

As I say, the process has been applied to downgrade the marks of state school kids, but overwhelmingly not to those from Independent schools.

[drfchound]

I agree that this was a tough one to get perfectly right.

But you could have put good money on the outcome being one that systematically favoured independent schools, couldn't you?

But isn’t that always the outcome? (I haven’t got the statistics to back this up, just an educated guess)

I suppose people could have put money on the outcome but funnily enough I never heard anyone mention this before the last day or two.
Hindsight eh.

[belton rover]

Belton.

By a long,long way, the most important aspect of A-Levels is their role in allocating university places in a given year. Everything else is a long, long way secondary to that. We have set up a system that has demonstrably advantaged independent school kids over state school kids on that issue. There will be thousands of independent school kids who win university places (and all that means for future life prospects) ahead of state school kids who should have won those places.

The role of A-Levels in securing jobs in far distant future years (when you think employers might have forgotten about COVID - I disagree by the way, I'd be amazed if this year isn't seared onto our memories) is a tiny issue by comparison.

I was replying to your first paragraph.
On this year and university access, the government have always said they expect the appeals process to be significantly more accessible and widely used.
My son and daughter have just received their AS results (not A2, granted). My boy has the qualiifications his college submitted, my daughter was downgraded. With help from her college, the appeals process has begun. As a parent, I am totally happy with this procedure. After the appeals process, we will see.

Do you really think that the government’s thinking is that Covid 19 is a great excuse to f**k up the lives of the next generation of working class northerners?

[Pliskin]

BST

I'm not arguing in favour of the system that has been used though.

More that an alternative which produces grade inflation will also be unfair on genuine high achievers regardless of background because the highest grades will be devalued.

But ultimately, any system which assigns grades without an assessment taking place will be unfair.

Surely there is a better way than this?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Belton.

No, I'd like to think that is not the explicit thinking.

But then I'd be a fool not to look at past examples of where Tory Governments have looked after their own at the expense of the working class.

In 2010, in the very first few weeks after coming to power, the Tories slashed local Govt funding for northern councils and increased them across the south.

They slashed state school spending in a scale never seen before, while reducing the top rate of tax.

They stopped the flat rate grant to all child trust funds which were aimed at giving the poorest kids a leg up, on the grounds that...Austerity...while at the same time giving enormous tax breaks to people who could afford to put £1000/month into private trust funds for their kids.

So, to be honest, when I see another Tory policy unfairly advantaging the rich at the expense of the rest [1] I reckon the onus is on them to explain and correct, not on me to give them.the benefit of the doubt.

I accept you may see it differently.

[1] The appeals issue, by the way, is missing the point. Even if state school kids win their appeals, the playing field is still unfairly slanted against them. They will be getting the outcomes they deserved. No independent school kid who has had their grades wrong INFLATED is going to be downgraded. So there's still a systemic negative against state school kids, even after the emotional stress of going through an appeal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Hound.

The other thing I'd have put money on would have been you ignoring the core issue and trying to have a personal dig. Living proof that maturity doesn't always come with age.

[Dutch Uncle]

It's not just an English scandal this though is it?

The calculation of results in Scotland (SNP administration) also produced outcomes which benefitted those from more affluent areas. They have obviously now u-turned and gone with the teachers' estimates, which has produced a significantly inflated set of results compared to previous years.

I'm not sure which is worse, although the latter is more politically beneficial to the Scottish govt in the short term.

And similar to England, 40% of Welsh students have also had their results downgraded under the Labour administration, although there doesn't yet appear to be any figures on whether this benefits schools in more affluent areas.

It just seems obvious that there is no fair way of producing a legitimate set of exam results without the actual exams taking place.

Inflation against previous or future years is irrelevant. The certificates will always have "2020" stamped on them and future employers will be stupid not to take that into consideration.

What is FAR more important is fairness across THIS year cohort, in terms of University access. The Govt had had 5 months to get that right and they have totally f**ked up.

As has been widely said, there is no way to resolve the current situation that is fair to all – there will be winners and losers. So IMHO the best solution would be not to add extra man-made unfairness into the mix, and accept all predicted grades. As BST says, the grades will have 2020 stamped on them and that will become known as the year of increased number of top grades. This has been called by some as a lack of credibility, but surely that is overall fairer (and thus better) and what is happening now.

Unfairness is not new, and my daughter suffered from unnecessary tinkering at A-level German 10 years ago. She was at an international school in the Netherlands following the British curriculum. I speak German after living there for a while. My daughter had German friends (among other nationalities) and she took advantage of her unusual chance to practice German a lot, both with me and some of her friends. She scored 100% (yes 100%) in her A/S level. She missed out on an A* at A-level because her oral part was downgraded to a B because ‘she was so good the actual oral must have been rehearsed’. Some busybody not knowing a thing about her assumed she was cheating – and we had no appeal against the oral mark. I am still angry, not about the mark but the unchallengeable assumption of cheating. What was worse the school warned her beforehand not to be too good. This had been experienced before by other excellent pupils. It is all another instance of introducing extra man-made unfairness.  She required an A* and 2 ‘A’s for her chosen University and fortunately she just achieved it so there was no repercussion, except a total loss of confidence of a system that tried to interfere with an individual without full information.

[belton rover]

Billy, I understand your angst towards Tory governments, past and present, I really do. I don’t have nearly the amount of passion, not even close, for or against a political party or government.
What I do genuinely think, is that this current government has done a relatively good job in 2020. That doesn’t mean they haven’t made mistakes, some pretty big ones, but mistakes that have only been realised with hindsight. They have also made some excellent decisions to help the people (all of us) of Britain.

I just think that if there was ever a time not to politicise every single decision made, and shout out retrospectively ‘I told you so’ every time something happens to divide opinion, it is now.

I realise that might sound naive, but there you go.

Tom Kirkman for Prime Minister, I say.