Local Elections And Hartlepool

[drfchound]

It's actually indicative of a big economic blindspot to assume that the "costs" have to be paid back in any conventional sense. It's simply not possible to pay off £0.5-1trn of debt by raising taxes. It would mean putting income tax up by 5% for 50 years, just to pay off the capital.

No country does that. What you have to do is grow your way out of the debt, so the capital goes down as a proportion of your national income. And the only way to get the sort of growth rates we need is to have large, sustained Govt investment in the economy. Precisely the policies that were (wrongly) called "Marxist" at the last election.

I'll put a marker down now. Biden is proposing a stimulus package worth a massive 10% of US GDP over the next two years. Sunak is proposing that our equivalent will be only 4% of UK GDP over the next 4 years.

I'm happy to have a decent sized charity bet that US growth greatly exceeds ours for the next 3-4 years, and that despite borrowing more money for the stimulus, that growth will put them in a better position to deal with it.

BST, the taxpayer doesn’t just pay through income tax etc and I wasn’t suggesting that he (she) would be.
There are things like VAT etc and of course I think that Inheritance Taxes will go up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Hound, I get that. I was just giving some idea of what the tax burden would be if we actually intended to pay off the cost of COVID measures through tax increases. It cannot and will not be done. Although the Tories will not ever say that, because their entire economic philosophy for the past 13 years has been about not incurring debt because we have to pay it back.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I think the problem right now is labour don't have any policies.

Fair enough, regarding detail.

But can you point me in the direction of ANY Opposition that has developed detailed policies three years out from an election and won?

No probably not and that's fine if that's their choice.  The point is we don't yet know what Kier Starmer's policies will look like and he doesn't have that charisma that means policy isn't his most important tool.

[selby]

  Having one party with such a large majority is no good for the country, I take no joy in the demise of the Labour party but understand why, simplifying it they are supported, run and led by educated idiots constantly pushing their thoughts on utopia which is as far removed from real life as life on Mars.

[wilts rover]

  Having one party with such a large majority is no good for the country, I take no joy in the demise of the Labour party but understand why, simplifying it they are supported, run and led by educated idiots constantly pushing their thoughts on utopia which is as far removed from real life as life on Mars.

Unlike of course the Tory Party...

[wilts rover]

Not massively helpful Wilts.

Your approach seems to have been to uncritically support a leader who took Labour to its worst polling and election results in 100 years (entirely predictable, and predicted well before it happened) then say to the new leadership "your party - your fault if you don't fix it".

I do agree that the question is what Starmer stands for. But I fear that question is only being posed so that people can use the answer to beat him with. Because he will not and must not stand for undiluted Corbynism.

And you are ignoring the strategy of the current Labour Party.

There is no-one else to blame over the current running, polling and public perception of the party than the people in charge of it.

[Metalmicky]

Starmer apparently struggling in wake of BJ's vaccine 'success' ......... I'm just putting out there folks - don't shoot the messenger...

https://digitpatrox.com/starmer-struggles-to-counter-johnsons-vaccine-bounce-as-polls-loom/

[SydneyRover]

Not 'shootin' talking MM, we have had two state elections here amidst covid and the encumbants have romped home especially WA, the thoughts behind this are that the government of the day hogs the airways (so to speak) and the opposition cannot get a word in and that during times of danger, wars, pandemics etc people are reluctant to change horses, and is why many were nervous about trump making a move for the red button.

[Metalmicky]

Not 'shootin' talking MM, we have had two state elections here amidst covid and the encumbants have romped home especially WA, the thoughts behind this are that the government of the day hogs the airways (so to speak) and the opposition cannot get a word in and that during times of danger, wars, pandemics etc people are reluctant to change horses, and is why many were nervous about trump making a move for the red button.

I'd agree with the majority of that Sydney.....  however, the fact that his Ipsos Mori approval score has dived must cause concern...especially considering the fact he's in opposition to a bumbling idiot...

[SydneyRover]

Not only that MM an inverate liar, racist, crony-in-chief etc but if we were talking about people examining the fact and making a resaoned decision for their own and country's future the tories would never get on but there you go.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Starmer apparently struggling in wake of BJ's vaccine 'success' ......... I'm just putting out there folks - don't shoot the messenger...

https://digitpatrox.com/starmer-struggles-to-counter-johnsons-vaccine-bounce-as-polls-loom/

Love that article MM. It reads like it's been written by an AI with learning difficulties.
"Shadow cupboard" for "shadow cabinet".

West Mids mayor "Andy Avenue" (It's Andy Street.)

"Social gathering" for "party".

But yes I agree that Starmer has major problems. What I'm less sure about is what he can do about it.

Back in November, Starmer was consistently warning that the plans to open up for Xmas were dangerous.

He was consistently warning that going back to the Tier system in December was dangerous.

He was bang on right on both issues, and Johnson's policy decisions on those issues have led directly to an additional 30,000 avoidable deaths.

If people still support Johnson, and lazily repeat the "Captain Hindsight" jibe in those circumstances, I'm struggling to think what else can be done. Maybe we deserve Johnson?

[MachoMadness]

Starmer appears to be suffering from Swinson syndrome, in that the more people see of him the less they like him. He made great strides at first with his air of managerial competence, there's no denying that, but his slump in the polls set in well before the vaccine program really started rolling out. I am genuinely not sure how he remedies that.

[Ldr]

Half of the problem is personality. He doesn't have one and in an age where image is uber-important that's a massive negative factor

[SydneyRover]

Starmer is under intense pressure from all sides and it's hard to think about draining the swamp ....... but any increase in vote percentage at all should be seen as a positive with the towns fund being used as an electoral slush fund it's hard to see where he can find clear air and a break. Business are feeling the pinch and are making noises, this is not going to improve any time soon, when the job support is is pulled and the full effect of brexit are realised the populace may view this government in a different light.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This blog piece from the UK's leading professor of macroeconomics goes right to the core of the basic problem Labour has.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/labour-should-start-contesting-tory.html?m=1

Tl:dr.
The Tories have historically been appalling at running the economy, but the public perception is that they are very good and it is Labour that is incompetent.

That idea about Labour's supposed incompetence is partly due to a very right wing mass media, but also Labour have been shite for a decade in not countering the line that they were to blame for the 2008-10 crash. Milliband wanted to ignore it. Corbyn basically laid into anything Labour had done pre-2015.

Labour has got to start being more aggressive on the economic argument. And they have the example over the Atlantic to point to. Being timid on this subject just will not work.

[bpoolrover]

Starmer apparently struggling in wake of BJ's vaccine 'success' ......... I'm just putting out there folks - don't shoot the messenger...

https://digitpatrox.com/starmer-struggles-to-counter-johnsons-vaccine-bounce-as-polls-loom/

Love that article MM. It reads like it's been written by an AI with learning difficulties.
"Shadow cupboard" for "shadow cabinet".

West Mids mayor "Andy Avenue" (It's Andy Street.)

"Social gathering" for "party".

But yes I agree that Starmer has major problems. What I'm less sure about is what he can do about it.

Back in November, Starmer was consistently warning that the plans to open up for Xmas were dangerous.

He was consistently warning that going back to the Tier system in December was dangerous.

He was bang on right on both issues, and Johnson's policy decisions on those issues have led directly to an additional 30,000 avoidable deaths.

If people still support Johnson, and lazily repeat the "Captain Hindsight" jibe in those circumstances, I'm struggling to think what else can be done. Maybe we deserve Johnson?

most of the time he waited until boris had said there would be tougher measures before he said anything,he just sat on the fence im sure I read a article around Xmas in the independent on this issue I’ll try and find it and post

[bpoolrover]

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/keir-starmer-boris-johnson-coronavirus-lockdown-b1782619.html

[SydneyRover]

This blog piece from the UK's leading professor of macroeconomics goes right to the core of the basic problem Labour has.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2021/04/labour-should-start-contesting-tory.html?m=1

Tl:dr.
The Tories have historically been appalling at running the economy, but the public perception is that they are very good and it is Labour that is incompetent.

That idea about Labour's supposed incompetence is partly due to a very right wing mass media, but also Labour have been shite for a decade in not countering the line that they were to blame for the 2008-10 crash. Milliband wanted to ignore it. Corbyn basically laid into anything Labour had done pre-2015.

Labour has got to start being more aggressive on the economic argument. And they have the example over the Atlantic to point to. Being timid on this subject just will not work.

Yep, and it's not a complicated argument either it just needs some repetition and when it is inevitably challenged the facts can be referred to, that's the good bit about facts is they don't change it's the perception.

[wilts rover]

Can you imagine the headlines if John McDonnell had looked in giving a company Tony Blair had £20mill shares invested in favourable treatment and £m's of taxpayers money just before they went bust - it wouldn't be off the front page of every paper for days and leading the news bulletins.

But Sunack and Cameron - nah nowt to see here....

[bpoolrover]

The point is about how people see the Labour Party thou wilts, rather than focus on the tories people should try and change how labour are seen

[SydneyRover]

The point is about how people see the Labour Party thou wilts, rather than focus on the tories people should try and change how labour are seen

Isn't that the point Wilts just made bp?

[bpoolrover]

I don’t no maybe I’m sure he will reply and say if it was

[bpoolrover]

You only have to look at the debate between bst and tyke to see different views on the Labour Party at the minute

[wilts rover]

My point was more on how the media portrays politicians and politicial stories from the different parties.

If you are only getting your news from right-wing press or Tory friendly media outlets then nohing the Labour Party can do will ever change your view of them - because those outlets will only ever portray Labour in bad light. Whilst ignoring corruption in/by the Tories.

The current Sunak/Cameron/Greensill story being a prime example.

[bpoolrover]

My point was more on how the media portrays politicians and politicial stories from the different parties.

If you are only getting your news from right-wing press or Tory friendly media outlets then nohing the Labour Party can do will ever change your view of them - because those outlets will only ever portray Labour in bad light. Whilst ignoring corruption in/by the Tories.

The current Sunak/Cameron/Greensill story being a prime example.

you are right wilts, but if you read a lot of the comments in the independent the same reasoning would apply to them? The only way Labour will win again if the can somehow pull together and stop the infighting, is that possible in the near future I doubt but you never no

[tyke1962]

You only have to look at the debate between bst and tyke to see different views on the Labour Party at the minute

My own view Bpool is that Labour should go and try and gain more Metropolitan votes or even try and get Scotland back and stop chasing votes in the former Red Wall .

If the Party has become what it is then it would make sense to me for them to campaign on issues that come naturally to them rather than seek the vote of folks like me .

I cannot see the Red Wall returning anytime soon to Labour , I don't necessarily believe it's an area the Tories will keep but it won't be going back to Labour either .

Let them campaign on a return to the EU for instance , what ever floats their boat and comes natural to them and they no longer have to tolerate the likes of me .

My Trade Union looks as though it's going to be cutting its funding to the Labour Party and that's my cue to stop voting Labour too , it's been coming for many years now .

The Party will have to soon seek donors to prop them up financially with the implications that route brings but if that attracts more of the Metropolitan vote then fair enough it may well be beneficial to do so .

It seems pretty clear to me looking at the Hartlepool polls that it's pretty much over for the Labour Party in the old industrial heartlands and it's probably best that Labour recognises it and goes after votes it's more likely to get .

[DonnyOsmond]

If people are willing to swing from a party that's always been on the left of center, coming up with leftist ideas such as the NHS and move to a party thats always been on the right then it perhaps says more about those people? Perhaps, the red wall seat Boomers only gained dislike for the Tories due to the mines, etc then as times gone on they've become less against the party and more conservative (lower c) themselves as they've got older.

Surely people have their own beliefs and ideologies on how a country should be run, me personally I like to see everyone to have free health care as no one should suffer medically due to poor luck (such as being made redundant due to Covid), a roof over their head, the ability to become a functioning member of society and when a country is in a financial crisis, you don't stop spending, you spend more to get the country back on its feet and people in jobs.

Other people may be more inclined to wanting to protect their own investments and not looking further than them and their own.

The latter isn't Labour ideology so there is no point in chasing those voters.

[Filo]

You only have to look at the debate between bst and tyke to see different views on the Labour Party at the minute

My own view Bpool is that Labour should go and try and gain more Metropolitan votes or even try and get Scotland back and stop chasing votes in the former Red Wall .

If the Party has become what it is then it would make sense to me for them to campaign on issues that come naturally to them rather than seek the vote of folks like me .

I cannot see the Red Wall returning anytime soon to Labour , I don't necessarily believe it's an area the Tories will keep but it won't be going back to Labour either .

Let them campaign on a return to the EU for instance , what ever floats their boat and comes natural to them and they no longer have to tolerate the likes of me .

My Trade Union looks as though it's going to be cutting its funding to the Labour Party and that's my cue to stop voting Labour too , it's been coming for many years now .

The Party will have to soon seek donors to prop them up financially with the implications that route brings but if that attracts more of the Metropolitan vote then fair enough it may well be beneficial to do so .

It seems pretty clear to me looking at the Hartlepool polls that it's pretty much over for the Labour Party in the old industrial heartlands and it's probably best that Labour recognises it and goes after votes it's more likely to get .

If you are happy to abandon the Labour Party, then you will be happy for a Tory govt in perpetuity

[tyke1962]

You only have to look at the debate between bst and tyke to see different views on the Labour Party at the minute

My own view Bpool is that Labour should go and try and gain more Metropolitan votes or even try and get Scotland back and stop chasing votes in the former Red Wall .

If the Party has become what it is then it would make sense to me for them to campaign on issues that come naturally to them rather than seek the vote of folks like me .

I cannot see the Red Wall returning anytime soon to Labour , I don't necessarily believe it's an area the Tories will keep but it won't be going back to Labour either .

Let them campaign on a return to the EU for instance , what ever floats their boat and comes natural to them and they no longer have to tolerate the likes of me .

My Trade Union looks as though it's going to be cutting its funding to the Labour Party and that's my cue to stop voting Labour too , it's been coming for many years now .

The Party will have to soon seek donors to prop them up financially with the implications that route brings but if that attracts more of the Metropolitan vote then fair enough it may well be beneficial to do so .

It seems pretty clear to me looking at the Hartlepool polls that it's pretty much over for the Labour Party in the old industrial heartlands and it's probably best that Labour recognises it and goes after votes it's more likely to get .

If you are happy to abandon the Labour Party, then you will be happy for a Tory govt in perpetuity

If I was happy to see a Tory government then I'd vote for one Filo and it's not something I've ever done or even likely to do .

I just think it's better for the party to go in the direction it naturally wants to go without having to tolerate the likes of me in the old industrial heartlands .

If it's current guise stacks up then there's plenty of votes to go for without the former Red Wall holding it back which clearly seems to be the case .

[DonnyOsmond]

What do you look for in policies then Tyke?