The Great Escape

[dickos1]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

The other teams might be saying the same as you are.  Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. 
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.

No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.

Other than cheltenham we are the highest placed side in the form table out of the bottom half of the league table.
So I don’t think the other fans will be saying we’re not in any kind of form.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The games in hand thing goes like this.

If 45 points is the target, we have 11 games to get 17 points.

Wimbledon have 13 games to get 13 points.

Nothing else really matters. Not who the supposed matches in hand are against, nor when they are.

[VikingRich]

Although winning the game against Wimbledon does have double significance.

[Campsall rover]

The games in hand thing goes like this.

If 45 points is the target, we have 11 games to get 17 points.

Wimbledon have 13 games to get 13 points.

Nothing else really matters. Not who the supposed matches in hand are against, nor when they are.

So on paper Wimbledon have the easier task. End of.   So we really do need to win this game.
Form or no form. It’s a simple maths equation.
Still think 45 points might be a tad optimistic.

[colincramb]

Yep need to win Saturday. Simple. Defeat would be catastrophic I think

[The Beast]

Yep need to win Saturday. Simple. Defeat would be catastrophic I think

Agreed, a draw isn’t much better, bet Wimbledon would happily take that now

[dickos1]

To be honest
Most weeks we’ve had similar comments “if we don’t win it’s all over” some of these games we’ve lost yet we’re still in it
If we lose Saturday it’s a bad result but it’s still a long way from being over

[steve@dcfd]

You could be right Dickos but we’ve played more games than the other teams we’ve got the worst GD so we need to win with 11 games left

[dickos1]

We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost

[BillyStubbsTears]

We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost

Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.

[Sammy Chung was King]

Game at a time, I see no reason why we can’t beat Wimbledon, if the current doggedness continues. We can’t afford to drop our performance at all. We need to go for the win, just make sure we give no cheap goals away.

[dickos1]

We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost

Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.

I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible

[BillyStubbsTears]

We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost

Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.

I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible

As I say, its about probabilities. Wimbledon need 13 points from 13 games to hit 45 points. There is a certain probability of them exceeding that. If they beat us on Saturday, they then need only 10 points from 12 games to hit 45. The probability f them exceeding that wold be significantly higher than it is today.

It's complicated to quantify, but in simple terms, if we beat them on Saturday then the odds tilt towards us, whereas if we lose then our task is really VERY difficult.

[dickos1]

We’d need 17 points from 10 games if we lost

Not quite as simple as that. If we lose to the side 5th bottom, that increases the probability that that side will end up on more than 45 points.

I think it’s naive to think they won’t win any of their last 13 games, the teams just above them will be dragged right back in if Wimbledon win.
As I said it will make it tougher if we lose but it won’t make it impossible

As I say, its about probabilities. Wimbledon need 13 points from 13 games to hit 45 points. There is a certain probability of them exceeding that. If they beat us on Saturday, they then need only 10 points from 12 games to hit 45. The probability f them exceeding that wold be significantly higher than it is today.

It's complicated to quantify, but in simple terms, if we beat them on Saturday then the odds tilt towards us, whereas if we lose then our task is really VERY difficult.

They’ve got 7 points from their last 13 games and we’ve got 12 points from our last 11 games.
So going purely on current form we’re looking likely to finish above them

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.

Saturday is a massive tipping point.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Statistics don't determine the outcome of games.

It's about  the basic human sporting values of desire, endeavour, bravery and team work.

We've seen the signs recently that the team ethic is coming together even when our collective quality hasn't been as good as our opponents.

That means we can be pretty confident the team is going into this game and every remaining game with the right attitude and desire to win.

Whatever happens, there will not be a 'R' against our name in the league table, so let's not have anyone saying we're relegated when we're clearly not. It's a hard enough task even without fans waving the white flag prematurely.

[dickos1]

Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.

Saturday is a massive tipping point.

We need to win 5/6 games out of the last 11 doesn’t matter which ones, so makes it harder if we do t win one of them on sat but not impossible

[Sammy Chung was King]

It’s not the end of the road if we don’t beat them, but it would make it much more difficult.
I think at least a draw would be good, just so they don’t gain confidence and start pulling away from us.

 I do think we will beat them if we are as determined as we have been recently. We are beginning to look very organised but that has to continue.

[colincramb]

Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.

Saturday is a massive tipping point.

You are absolutely right BST. Psychologically the players will get another lift if we win this. On this basis alone I think it’s huge.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yes. But if they beat us on Saturday, they've got 10 from 14 and we've got 12 from 12. Then if you extrapolate THAT form through its very different.

Saturday is a massive tipping point.

We need to win 5/6 games out of the last 11 doesn’t matter which ones, so makes it harder if we do t win one of them on sat but not impossible

No, of course it's not impossible if we lose tomorrow, but it would be very much more difficult.

The more I think of this, the more it feels like one of the biggest matches in a very long time - certainly since Brentford, there's only been the final match of 13/14 and the playoff semi at Charlton that are clearly more pivotal.

Win and I think we probably are favourites to stay up. Lose and it is very, very difficult to survive.

Look at the bookies (and yes, I know but they get it right more often than not). Currently they have us 1/14-16 on to go down and Wimbledon 3-4/1 against.

Lose on Saturday and those numbers will go to something like 1/25 and 8/1. Win and both will be close to Evens.

[BillyStubbsTears]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?

I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.

It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.

If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.



17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30

So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.

That throws a very different light on our position.

I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.

The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.

[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.

Update after tonight:

17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27

So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.

Update after today.

Update after tonight:

17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?

I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.

It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.

If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.



17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30

So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.

That throws a very different light on our position.

I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.

The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.

[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.

Update after tonight:

17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27

So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.

Update after today:

17th 55, 53 50
18th 49, 53 50
19th 45, 46 48
20th 43, 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40, 41 42
22nd 39,40 41
23rd 36, 38 40
24th 30, 27 33

As you were more or less. Still looking like 45 points should ensure safety and 41-43 points might.

A draw today rather than a win does make it a bit harder for us though, because we now need 16 points from 10 games, rather than the 17 from 11 it was before today. But not as hard as it was looking after an hour. We are still alive.

[Campsall rover]

Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.

As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.

[drfchound]

It is looking likely though Camps.
I said a few weeks ago that 45 might be enough to stay up, rather that the usual fifty.

[Dutch Uncle]

Not sure what formula your using BST. 43 points would be one of lowest ever for 20th place.

As long as we finish above 4 teams that all that matters.

Posted this elsewhere - using a projected average using points-per-game for the COVID curtailed 2019-20 season to calculate predicted points at the end of that season, since 3 points per win was introduced in 1981-82, the average points for the safe 20th position is 49.1 and for the relegated 21st position is 47.2

The lowest number of points for 20th position is 45 (Oxford in 1999-00) and the lowest for 21st position is 43 (Wycombe 2011-12).

So 45 is the lowest that has escaped, although theoretically 44 (or 43 with goal difference better than -23) for anyone not in the bottom 4 could have survived in 2011-12 - although the 20th placed team that year, Leyton Orient, did actually win 50 points.

[Campsall rover]

It is looking likely though Camps.
I said a few weeks ago that 45 might be enough to stay up, rather that the usual fifty.

No I accept we won’t need 50
Think 45 is possible now. But hey what do I know.   

[Dutch Uncle]

My opinion - I think we simply have to have better form than Wimbledon, Morecambe, Gillingham and Crewe for the rest of the season in order to stay up. If they all continue their poor form then a low number will be required, but if just one of those 4 hits form then we are in trouble. It would then need one of Lincoln, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury to have truly disastrous form between now and the end of the season.

The team I think most likely of our 4 nearest rivals to have good form  is Gillingham under their new management.

[drfchound]

My opinion - I think we simply have to have better form than Wimbledon, Morecambe, Gillingham and Crewe for the rest of the season in order to stay up. If they all continue their poor form then a low number will be required, but if just one of those 4 hits form then we are in trouble. It would then need one of Lincoln, Fleetwood or Shrewsbury to have truly disastrous form between now and the end of the season.

The team I think most likely of our 4 nearest rivals to have good form  is Gillingham under their new management.

I think that Lincoln and Fleetwood are very much in the mix now.
Lincoln in particular are in terrible form.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Great addition to the stats Dutch.

For what it's worth, I have trouble imaging what my simple models says -- that 43 points will be what the 5th bottom side will get. But then again, pretty much every year I don't believe what this model says, and over and over again it turns out to be right to within a point or two.

I do think the bottom 5 or so are historically very poor this year. A quick look suggests that only twice this century have we got this late in the season in this division before this year, with the 5th bottom side averaging less than a point per game. And there's crrently no real sign of any of the bottom 5 hitting very good form. Over the past ten games, we are doing best with 1.3 ppg, Gillingham have 1.2, Morecambe 0.8, Crewe 0.7 and Wimbledon 0.6. So the form varies between mid-table to rank bad bottom of the table.

[Sammy Chung was King]

I had us getting around 42 points.

[Red wizard]

Coming back from 2 down will feel like a win to the players. At least we are showing some fight and like others have said we just need to get more points that those around.