The Great Escape

[BillyStubbsTears]

Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.

Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.

You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.

[BillyStubbsTears]

After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.

Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.

BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?

I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.

It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways.

If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.



17th 55
18th 49
19th 45
20th 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40
22nd 39
23rd 36
24th 30

So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.

That throws a very different light on our position.

I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.

The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.

[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.

Update after tonight:

17th 55 53
18th 49 53
19th 45 46
20th 43 43
++++++++++++++++++++
21st 40 41
22nd 39 40
23rd 36 38
24th 30 27

So still quite stable for the bottom 6 and it's still looking like 43-ish points might do it. 45 ought to give a side a damn good chance of survival.

[les@donr]

We need to keep our rising momentum going, beat the Wombles on Saturday we will be only a point behind them  Win one more game than them between now and the end of the season, we will stay up, as long as the other bottom 4 teams don't get more wins than us.

[GazLaz]

Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.

Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.

You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.

We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.

[normal rules]

Perhaps they should start playing “the impossible dream” again pre match at the keepmoat

[dickos1]

Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.

Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.

You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.

We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.

We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points

[GazLaz]

Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.

Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.

You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.

We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.

We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points

Really I’m equating more possession to having a bit more quality and more control in games. We will need that if we are to stay up.

[Arsenal Of The North]

It’s not about winning pretty, it’s about getting effective results, it’s hard to watch, but needs must. I don’t think we’re going to all of a sudden start turning out good performances but the more wins we achieve may breath more confidence into the team.

For now it’s just about scrapping for every point available

[dickos1]

Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.

Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.

You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.

We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.

We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession.
For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute.
I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points

Really I’m equating more possession to having a bit more quality and more control in games. We will need that if we are to stay up.

Under wellens we had much more possession than we do now but very little goal threat. Under mcsheffrey we are far more direct but we’re picking up more points

[Chris Black come back]

Reminder that along with 4 points (5 with goal difference) AFC Wimbledon have 2 games in hand on us. A win on Saturday is important but we still need them to lose games at an increasing rate and obviously for us to win more games.

Fleetwood have same points as AFC Wimbledon but 4 games in hand on us.

[turnbull for england]

Remember when all we had to do was win our games in hand and we would have been top of the league ?

[drfchound]

Yep, that does seem a long time ago doesn’t it.

[dickos1]

Games in hand hardly matter when you’re near the bottom of the league
Wimbledon’s games in hand are Plymouth away and charlton at home, they’ll be lucky to get a point from those,
Fleetwood games in hand are sheff wed, Lincoln, Wigan and Sunderland.
Maybe 3 points max here

[rich1471]

Reminder that along with 4 points (5 with goal difference) AFC Wimbledon have 2 games in hand on us. A win on Saturday is important but we still need them to lose games at an increasing rate and obviously for us to win more games.

Fleetwood have same points as AFC Wimbledon but 4 games in hand on us.

But they are losing games at an alarming rate ,they have not won since early December

[DMnumber4]

"Games in hand" really is an odd one. I think their importance gets overstated to be honest.

They slip through your fingers like sand and, if you lose one, it puts increasing pressure on the other "games in hand" because they're some sort of mythical trump card.

The pressure is on them to get away...

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Remember SOD always said, points on the board every time.  If we can keep momentum flowing we build massive pressure.

It's a slim chance but not quite as slim as it was.

[GazLaz]

Remember SOD always said, points on the board every time.  If we can keep momentum flowing we build massive pressure.

It's a slim chance but not quite as slim as it was.

The thing is, it’s not as if it’s a situation where we have points on the board with a team behind us with games in hand. They have points on the board AND games in hand. Each game in hand for them is probably worth about 0.8 points each.

[dickos1]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

[ravenrover]

Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear

[GazLaz]

Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear

They are quite direct but the follow up with second and third phases of play quite well. They are better than people give them credit for.

[ravenrover]

Didn't see much of that last night GL

[GazLaz]

Didn't see much of that last night GL

They had 60% possession. They must have retained the ball quite well.

[Campsall rover]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

The other teams might be saying the same as you are.  Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. 
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.

No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.

[Reg of the Rovers]

The games in hand might (optimistically) work in our favour - a few less games to fit in and more rest time. The lack of rest hurt us against Wednesday when our legs tired, hopefully it can help us in the run in. 

[normal rules]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

The other teams might be saying the same as you are.  Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. 
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.

No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.

My dad is a wily old thing, but he has a knack of calling things. He already predicts needing a win to stay up when we go to Oxford, and they need a win to either secure playoffs or automatics.
Our problem is the kassam only has three sides. There won’t be room for us all to go.

[Reg of the Rovers]

All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them.
Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.

The other teams might be saying the same as you are.  Gillingham have improved since Harris took over.
I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.
Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.
Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. 
So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln
Win those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off.
Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any.
They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.

No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.

My dad is a wily old thing, but he has a knack of calling things. He already predicts needing a win to stay up when we go to Oxford, and they need a win to either secure playoffs or automatics.
Our problem is the kassam only has three sides. There won’t be room for us all to go.

My nerves won't cope with that! And Brentford aside my recent memory of Rovers in last day 'must-win' games is painful (Leicester, Hartlepool, Cheltenham).

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wimbledon haven't won for ages, but they have remained competitive in nearly all their matches. They got rolled over by Bolton ast Saturday, but apart from that they have only lost by more than 1 goal twice in the past 4 months. It's not a massive stretch of the imagination to see them picking up enough points to hit 45.

[Jonathan]

It’s interesting to micro-analyse all the other teams and the permutations, but it’s largely pointless. We can’t do anything about their games in hand or their form (or perceived lack of). We still have a huge task on, no denying that. But if we win games then we give ourselves a better chance of staying up - it’s that simple. And we’ve got better at winning games recently.

If we don’t beat Wimbledon at the weekend it’s not over, but we do need to find some consistency. Last night was a big step in breaking the bad run at home - which I think had become a bit of a burden. We can move on from that and the task remains a straightforward one - win the next game. As we go, we’ll see where that gets us to.

[pib]

Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear

They are quite direct but the follow up with second and third phases of play quite well. They are better than people give them credit for.

To me, their tactics seem to revolve around keeping the ball moving/alive as much as possible, often in the air. To be fair to them it is often effective and does cause chaos as they are always trying to recycle the ball into dangerous areas and make it as awkward as possible for defenders to deal with. They seem very energetic and fit and are good at getting onto the 2nd balls as you say.

I think compared to earlier in the season when we played them at their place, they missed Dion Charles. He had the pace to occupy/harry defenders and latch on to a lot of the direct play they had. They got the ball into Bishop quite a lot last night but didn't have the second man buzzing round him to pick up the pieces.

[ravenrover]

Didn't see much of that last night GL

They had 60% possession. They must have retained the ball quite well.

Possesion doesn't mean much if you are just knocking it about side to side and particularly at the back, which they seemed to do last night with the big centre half marauding forward in the 2nd half. It's more to do with how you make possesion pay that matters