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Have I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.
Quote from: BigH on February 07, 2022, 03:55:56 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2022, 01:50:11 pmAfter 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.It is. And I've just done it. And the results have knocked me sideways. If this is right (and it generally has been to within a couple or three points [1]) this is what the predicted final points values are for each position.17th 5518th 4919th 4520th 43++++++++++++++++++++21st 4022nd 3923rd 3624th 30So if that is right this season, a club could potentially stay up with 41-43 points.That throws a very different light on our position.I'd been looking at the average PPG of all the sides near the bottom and thinking something near to 50 points would be needed to stay up. I honestly don't think we can get close to that. But at the moment, there are several clubs who are in poor form, with 6 of the bottom ten averaging 1 PPG or less for the last ten games. which means that when you extrapolate RECENT form, rather than season-long form, a number of sides are forecast to finish on less than their current season average PPG.The predictor is based on the idea that, in general. if 5-6 teams are having poor form now, 5-6 teams (not necessarily the same ones) will have poor form from now on. So yes, some teams might pick up. But that would be balanced by other tailing off. As I say, there's nothing definitive about it, but it does in general seem to work.[1] Just checked the predictions for the TOP 10 of the division from about the same time last season - the average error was 1.74 points. The predictor came within 1 point of the actual final tally for 5 of the top 1 positions and the worst amount it was out was 4 points for one position in the top 10.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 07, 2022, 01:50:11 pmAfter 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.BST isn't it around this time of the year that you start your prediction for the end of season points finish?I reckon we'll end up on 38-40.
After 30 games last year, Burton were two points clear of the bottom 4 and Wigan were one point behind 5th bottom.Those cases are not remotely comparable to our current position.
Quote from: PaulRover08 on February 22, 2022, 10:15:40 pmHave I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 22, 2022, 11:54:06 pmQuote from: PaulRover08 on February 22, 2022, 10:15:40 pmHave I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff. We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious.
Quote from: GazLaz on February 23, 2022, 06:35:13 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 22, 2022, 11:54:06 pmQuote from: PaulRover08 on February 22, 2022, 10:15:40 pmHave I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff. We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious. We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession. For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute. I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points
Quote from: dickos1 on February 23, 2022, 07:47:50 amQuote from: GazLaz on February 23, 2022, 06:35:13 amQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on February 22, 2022, 11:54:06 pmQuote from: PaulRover08 on February 22, 2022, 10:15:40 pmHave I missed something. Was it that bad? Surely a team of giants and long throwers who also got a lot of corners are going to give us some dicey moments.Our ball retention in the first half was awful and kept putting us back under pressure. Passing was hurried to the point of being frantic. But we defended resolutely and were more controlled in the second half.You could see what we we trying to do in the first half - hit them quickly on the break, but it simply didn't work because the passing wasn't up to snuff. We could only muster 41% possession. That needs to improve, like you say, our ball retention is atrocious. We keep getting results though with the opposition having more possession. For me I couldn’t care less about how much possession we have at the minute. I’d settle for 41% possession every week as long as we keep picking up points Really I’m equating more possession to having a bit more quality and more control in games. We will need that if we are to stay up.
Reminder that along with 4 points (5 with goal difference) AFC Wimbledon have 2 games in hand on us. A win on Saturday is important but we still need them to lose games at an increasing rate and obviously for us to win more games. Fleetwood have same points as AFC Wimbledon but 4 games in hand on us.
Remember SOD always said, points on the board every time. If we can keep momentum flowing we build massive pressure.It's a slim chance but not quite as slim as it was.
Cloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dear
Didn't see much of that last night GL
All the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them. Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.
Quote from: dickos1 on February 23, 2022, 09:43:58 amAll the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them. Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over. I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and LincolnWin those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off. Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any. They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter.
Quote from: Campsall rover on February 23, 2022, 11:07:09 amQuote from: dickos1 on February 23, 2022, 09:43:58 amAll the teams around us aren’t winning though, so games in hand aren’t much use to them. Can’t see Wimbledon, Crewe, morecambe getting 45 points. So it’s between us, Gillingham, fleetwood, Shrewsbury, Lincoln.The other teams might be saying the same as you are. Gillingham have improved since Harris took over. I think one or more of Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and Lincoln are going to have a low points total in the run in.Morecambe concede too many goals and they have just lost their manager, so I think they will go down with Crewe who now look doomed.Wimbledon can’t buy a win at the moment ( oh no did i really say that ) scrub that comment sharpish. So I think it is now 2 from Gillingham, Rovers, Wimbledon, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and LincolnWin those games against Wimbledon, Gills, Crewe and Shrewsbury and pick up 2 further wins and I think we will pull this off. Those games in hands do mean an awful lot though dickos because you can’t say they won’t win any. They might. So it is imperative we pick up another 18/19 points.No way do I want to go to Oxford and need to win to stay up. Or even draw for that matter. My dad is a wily old thing, but he has a knack of calling things. He already predicts needing a win to stay up when we go to Oxford, and they need a win to either secure playoffs or automatics. Our problem is the kassam only has three sides. There won’t be room for us all to go.
Quote from: ravenrover on February 23, 2022, 10:11:57 amCloughie would be turning in his grave after that performance by AS. Talk about having only one tactic, geritforrard in the air to the big lads dear oh dearThey are quite direct but the follow up with second and third phases of play quite well. They are better than people give them credit for.
Quote from: ravenrover on February 23, 2022, 10:19:13 amDidn't see much of that last night GLThey had 60% possession. They must have retained the ball quite well.