Brexit deal

[BillyStubbsTears]

I know you did BB, but every post since has suggested your heart is really with Leave.

I don't get this united thing. Uniting over what. I believe in my core that the Leave vote is the biggest mistake we've made in 80 years and I'm not going to stop thinking that.

Doesn't change the hours I put in to help the economy. And I wouldn't put any more in if I shrugged my shoulders and said "Ah f**k it then".

Here's a thought though. My company is just about to sign a deal with an American client for £200k of work over the next 2 years. I've bust my arse to secure that, including three trips over there.

If the Treasury and BoE forecasts are correct, that we'll lose 10% of GDP if we had a No Deal Brexit, the country would need 3million such deals on top of normal business to make up the loss.

Forgive me if I am a bit skeptical about just keeping schtum and uniting as the way forward.

[SydneyRover]

Right-o' glad that's sorted, if you're a paid up member of the club you get cheap beer and your kids can go to the xmas party.

[albie]

What is missing from this discussion is an understanding of human psychology, specifically how people form opinions and hold them.

This link from the pollsters offers a basic outline;
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/facts-may-have-changed-brexit-peoples-minds-have-not

I do think some have moved since 2016, but loading them up with data and counter arguments is unlikely to prove persuasive.

If you made your mind up because you distrust the political class, or are skeptical about arguments too complicated for many, then more of the same from the usual suspects is unlikely to cut the mustard.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I get that argument Albie. But what's the conclusion?

That we should stop making evidence-based arguments? Appeal to gut instinct?

That terrifies me. It's the road to Hell as far as I can see. Because there's always some charismatic psychopath who comes along and knows what message to put out to push folks' buttons.

Hitler and Stalin are the obvious ones but there are plenty more waiting in the wings for when evidence-based democracy collapses.

Putin's there already.
Trump's trying but I have faith in American democracy to bring him down.

In Europe, there's Orban and LePen and Kaczynski and Salvini and our own dear Nigel.

I was having this argument just the other day with a left wing mate of mine who is a company managing director and university professor. Very smart. Very successful. He was insisting that the Left has to get down in the gutter with the populist Right. Forget about arguing based on facts and figures. Use propaganda, like Farage did with the migrant posters in 2016 to put fire in people's bellies.

It scares the living shit out of me. Because once you stop accepting facts as the benchmark and start appealing to instinct, this wonderful, peaceful, productive 70 years we've just had can vanish in a f**king instant.

[albie]

BST,

I am not saying you disregard the evidence base, but there are important presentational issues to keep in mind.

If people feel that their opinions are discounted, and hold fears about the way that the political establishment conducts itself in a top down fashion.
The risk is sounding like authority figures saying "keep up", and then resentment forms an additional barrier.

Perhaps it is better to accept the issues that worry people, and look to offer solutions that make sense to that perspective (even if you think that view is wrong).

You ask "Whats the Conclusion"....well first you need to recognise we have reached an impasse.
We could do worse than consider "deliberative democracy" approaches to insolubles like Brexit.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/richard-s-forsyth/peoples-vote-without-referendum

This is controversial, but lets face the fact that the current system is counter productive.
If anyone has a better suggestion, lets hear it!

It is about giving value to experience other than your own, and making identity distinct from opinion.
What that boils down to is saying changing your opinion is OK, and does not conflict with your sense of self.

Your disagreement with Boomstick on here is an example of digging in behind the trenches.
Not every nut needs a sledgehammer!

[graingrover]

I now have dual Nationality ..phew!

Envoyé de mon EVA-L09 en utilisant Tapatalk

[Axholme Lion]

You can't leave a f**king phone contract without lengthy negotiations and a fee to pay. Why on earth would anyone think an entire country could just up and leave a decades-old trading bloc with thousands of complex rules, regulations, and trade deals in place - without first settling all the commitments we've previously agreed to? Anyone who says they don't understand this either genuinely doesn't understand it or does understand it and is lying to you, but either way, they've forfeited their seat at the grown-up discussion table.

Typical condescending remainiac.
I'm so clever and I know everything...

[Axholme Lion]

What this country need is a Putin or an Orban to take charge and drag us from the gutter and shackles of EU slavery.
I'm sick of hearing about business and finance. I voted leave for the benefit of the nation, not for short sighted personal benefit. There's more to life than money.

[RedJ]

You can't leave a f**king phone contract without lengthy negotiations and a fee to pay. Why on earth would anyone think an entire country could just up and leave a decades-old trading bloc with thousands of complex rules, regulations, and trade deals in place - without first settling all the commitments we've previously agreed to? Anyone who says they don't understand this either genuinely doesn't understand it or does understand it and is lying to you, but either way, they've forfeited their seat at the grown-up discussion table.

Typical condescending remainiac.
I'm so clever and I know everything...

Funny how people pointing out what should be fairly obvious is condescending now...

[IDM]

What this country need is a Putin or an Orban to take charge and drag us from the gutter and shackles of EU slavery.
I'm sick of hearing about business and finance. I voted leave for the benefit of the nation, not for short sighted personal benefit. There's more to life than money.

What benefits would those be?

Were they clear and measurable at the time of the referendum, were they weighed up against the downside of leaving.?

I get it, people voted to have a UK independent of the EU - as a principle and that is understandable.  However what wasn’t known was how things would work in practice, not in principle..

I am repeating myself here, but a defined Brexit deal at referendum time may have seen a bigger leave majority.. it might not but the whole thing would have been more clear and fairer.

This is a rolling goat f**k of the highest order..

[MachoMadness]

Yep. That's what happens when you repeat yourself for 2 years and people still peddle the same old lies to you. I'll admit, I was condescending there. But funnily enough, when I make an effort to be reasonable - like when I asked several times how best to challenge lies and falsehoods - I never get a response. It's only when I tell someone to f**k off that they respond - it's almost as if they want to paint a picture of remainers as condescending and aggressive to suit a narrative, isn't it?

So I'll ask again: when someone comes up to you and lies to your face - intentionally or otherwise - how should you challenge it? Because you do need to. If someone comes up to you and tells you the grass is blue and the sky is green, and that if you disagree you're an unpatriotic moaning leftie and you should respect their opinion about the sky being green, how do you say "no, that's wrong"?

[Bentley Bullet]

Are Remainers condescending and aggressive? Absolutely. So much so that as a remain voter myself I don't want to be part of them. I'd much rather argue against them than for them, and there are plenty of things to argue with them about.

Their attitude has definitely done no good for their cause.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

As I said last night, my own frustration comes from the total lack of substantive responses from leave supporters to four critical questions. If my insistence on asking those questions comes across as aggressive and condescending, that's unfortunate, but it's secondary. The consequences that spin out from ignoring these questions are so serious, that a few people having their egos bruised is utterly irrelevant.

The questions are:

1) Do you accept the opinion of the vast majority of economic analysts, that leaving the EU will make us significantly less wealthy as a country from a significant period of time (several % of GDP for more than 10 years) and if not, what do you base your opinion on?
2) Have you considered what the effect of that level of loss of economic output would be on the country as a whole and you personally, given that it is a significantly more severe economic contraction than any recession that we have experienced since the 1930s?
3) Do you accept that there is currently no way that we can leave the CU and SM that doesn't have a very serious effect on the NI border issue?
4) Why do you think Putin and Trump were the only major world statesmen to support Brexit, and do you think everyone else was part of some conspiracy to misinform you?

Any Leave supporter who has thought seriously about those three issues, has considered opinions on them and is prepared to argue the case will have my respect. Anyone who hasn't thought about them, or has an "It'll be reyt" reaction to them doesn't deserve to have their opinions taken seriously.

[bobjimwilly]

I voted leave for the benefit of the nation

Still waiting to leave how leaving will benefit the nation...

What this country need is a Putin or an Orban to take charge and drag us from the gutter and shackles of EU slavery.

ignoring this because your obviously on a wind up

[Bentley Bullet]

BST, the lack of Leave voters response regarding the consequences of Brexit is because unlike many Remainers, they know that any future predictions are conjecture, and it would be hypocritical if they were to offer their expectations of the consequences of it as fact.

[rtid88]

The most ignored leaving deal is Lexit. I am sick of being stuck with tags of association with "Tommy" Stephen Christopher Yaxley-Lennon "Robinson" of EDL and UKIP infamy. No I wasn't too thick and therefore was taken in by phony immigration threats. I know the EU is not reformable and is a rich right wing club. Interestingly French train drivers are up in arms about plans to privatise SNCF as its all about market competition. We need a system where we can renationalise rail, water gas and electric - all popular with the public mood (train fares rising again in January to subsidise rail franchise profiteers- including the Dutch and German state railways). And if you think the EU protects workers rights you are dreaming back in the era of Delores, as consecutive UK, with no intervention from the EU,  governments have  eroded them further. We need to leave with the best deal possible for UK workers and rights.

If you think any renationalisation will be done under a Tory government that you are deluded!!

[Axholme Lion]

I voted leave for the benefit of the nation

Still waiting to leave how leaving will benefit the nation...

What this country need is a Putin or an Orban to take charge and drag us from the gutter and shackles of EU slavery.

All I need to know is that if banks and big business say we should stay in, then the best option is to get out.
These are the enemies of the people, who would rather pay some penniless roumanian two and sixpence to work all day in a field, and live ten to a caravan, rather than pay Brits a decent living wage. The globalist mafia will stop at nothing to keep us enslaved.

And no. I am not on a wind up regarding Putin and Orban.
ignoring this because your obviously on a wind up

[MachoMadness]

BST, the lack of Leave voters response regarding the consequences of Brexit is because unlike many Remainers, they know that any future predictions are conjecture, and it would be hypocritical if they were to offer their expectations of the consequences of it as fact.

What about things that are happening now? Like the slumping pound, the stagnant economy, or the criminal investigations into foreign money and illegal data harvesting that were put into practice by a hostile foreign power to destabilise the country?

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

But that's what grown ups do. We make predictions of the future based on the best information we have available. We don't walk into the future totally blind.

Wilfully deciding to ignore the best estimates of a large number of professional people in an issue THIS important is not something that any of us would do in our personal lives.

When you take out a mortgage, you don't know what the interest rates will be in the future. But you consider what likely scenarios are and what the consequences would be for your finances. You don't say "f**k it, who knows?" Or if you do, you're running a massive risk.

[RedJ]

BST, the lack of Leave voters response regarding the consequences of Brexit is because unlike many Remainers, they know that any future predictions are conjecture, and it would be hypocritical if they were to offer their expectations of the consequences of it as fact.

What about things that are happening now? Like the slumping pound, the stagnant economy, or the criminal investigations into foreign money and illegal data harvesting that were put into practice by a hostile foreign power to destabilise the country?

Yet it's people who want a second vote that are undemocratic.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a figure to think about.

Every 1% of GDP growth that we lose and don't recover would leave us £1trn worse off as a country over a decade.

1% GDP growth loss is the MINIMUM that is being predicted. And even the staunchest Brexit supporters accept that it would take us a decade to see serious benefits from enhanced trade with the rest of the world (although none of them say how these benefits would come about).

£1trn is about £35,000 for every employed person in the country.

£1trn would pay for about 4million new houses.

£1trn would pay for a replacement of the entire motorway network. Twice a year. For a decade.

£1trn would pay for 2000 new infirmaries.

That is the MINIMUM we'll lose over a decade as a result of the very most optimistic Brexit scenarios.

Do you REALLY want to shrug your shoulders and just assume all the predictions are wrong?

[Axholme Lion]

Here's a figure to think about.

Every 1% of GDP growth that we lose and don't recover would leave us £1trn worse off as a country over a decade.

1% GDP growth loss is the MINIMUM that is being predicted. And even the staunchest Brexit supporters accept that it would take us a decade to see serious benefits from enhanced trade with the rest of the world (although none of them say how these benefits would come about).

£1trn is about £35,000 for every employed person in the country.



£1trn would pay for about 4million new houses.

£1trn would pay for a replacement of the entire motorway network. Twice a year. For a decade.

£1trn would pay for 2000 new infirmaries.

That is the MINIMUM we'll lose over a decade as a result of the very most optimistic Brexit scenarios.

Do you REALLY want to shrug your shoulders and just assume all the predictions are wrong?

Please tell me you're not suggesting we should be building more houses?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course we need more housing. We have a national crisis with lack of good quality low cost housing.

Although at the risk of sounding condescending, you're kind of missing the point.

[Axholme Lion]

Of course we need more housing. We have a national crisis with lack of good quality low cost housing.

Although at the risk of sounding condescending, you're kind of missing the point.

I get your point about what the money could be used for, however I don't want anymore houses built around where I live, especially affordable ones. Maybe less people would solve the housing 'crisis'. Maybe if the younger generation could make do without I-phones, foreign holidays, designer clothes and new cars they might just be able to afford to buy a house?

[IDM]

Do you actually live in the real world.?

I know several young people like you describe and iPhones aside, they don’t have new cars nor go on expensive holidays, and saving for a mortgage deposit is very difficult, never mind getting a mortgage approved..

[Axholme Lion]

Do you actually live in the real world.?

I know several young people like you describe and iPhones aside, they don’t have new cars nor go on expensive holidays, and saving for a mortgage deposit is very difficult, never mind getting a mortgage approved..

I saved up for everything I've got on a joe bloggs wage packet. The problem with the majority of the youth is that they want everything now. I work in a company where three youngsters around 19-20 years of wage passed their test and went straight into brand new motors on pcp. The age of buying an old mini with the door hanging off for a monkey for your first motor has gone.

[IDM]

I agree with you to a degree that some of the youth today expect the world to give them a living..

[Bentley Bullet]

Considering we haven't even left the EU yet, is the present financial situation more a result of future uncertainty than an actual effect of Brexit?

[drfchound]

Considering we haven't even left the EU yet, is the present financial situation more a result of future uncertainty than an actual effect of Brexit?

I would have thought that people’s thoughts of an uncertain financial future is because of the possibility of us leaving the EU.
It is an actual effect of a possible Brexit.

[BillyStubbsTears]

BB

No. It's the result of

1) the sharp increase in inflation in 2016-17, which itself was due to
2) the sharp fall in the pound immediately after the referendum which itself was due to
3) the concern of international markets about the future strength of the UK economy, which has been exacerbated by
4) a very sharp reduction in capital investment by companies based in the UK, due to the concern that we'll have significantly less access to the EU markets.

All predictable.

All predicted.

How many predictions do you need to see that are proved right by the facts before you start to pay attention to the ongoing predictions?