No Brexit Extension

[Not Now Kato]

When we rejoin the EU , I think we should adopt the Euro at the same time . Anyone else ?

F*cking delusional.

Not really Steve. It's a racing certainty that if we do apply to rejoin we won't get the concessions we enjoyed as members.  So if we do rejoin at a later date we will most likely have to adopt the Euro.
 
The delusion was voting leave in the blind hope that we'd become better off without any form of proof to back that blind hope up. If that blind hope proves to be correct then great, we won't need to apply to rejoin. But if it proves false then membership on worse terms looks very likely indeed.
 
Let's start out by seeing what sort of trade deal we get first, if any, shall we?

[idler]

If politicians like Liz Truss are involved I can't see us negotiating anything worthwhile.

[tyke1962]

There's very little doubt in my mind that the EU will have no hesitation in throwing the UK under the bus , Barnier ain't bluffing that much we do know during this process of 4 years and counting .

The question is how long Johnson will refrain from blinking .

He hasn't the balls for this game of Mexican Stand Off with the economic effects of the pandemic set to hit .

Expect a Chamberlain moment as he waves a piece of white paper proclaiming " deal in our time " as he steps on to the political Green Mile .

Be strong Boris , it's a big fall coming from the top job lad .

[SydneyRover]

The EU won't cut off it's nose .......... but I don't see how It can give advantage to the UK without other EU members being at a disadvantage and that is certainly not going to happen.

Chlorine chicken anyone? 

[BillyStubbsTears]

There's very little doubt in my mind that the EU will have no hesitation in throwing the UK under the bus , Barnier ain't bluffing that much we do know during this process of 4 years and counting .

The question is how long Johnson will refrain from blinking .

He hasn't the balls for this game of Mexican Stand Off with the economic effects of the pandemic set to hit .

Expect a Chamberlain moment as he waves a piece of white paper proclaiming " deal in our time " as he steps on to the political Green Mile .

Be strong Boris , it's a big fall coming from the top job lad .

It's not a question of them "throwing us under the bus" Tyke. That's daft talk.

If you go into negotiations, you need to know what the other side's red line is.

The EU's red line is the Single Market.

They will not give us a deal which makes it look to other countries as though you can get a better economic position outside the SM, with the freedom to do what the f**k you want, than INSIDE the SM, where you have to abide by the rules that require you not to play Beggar Thy Neighbour.

If they allow us a deal like that, it destroys the SM, because then EVERYONE will want to break the rules.

And is everyone breaks the rules, everyone becomes poorer, because the SM is destroyed.

So it will not happen. Full stop.

That is a perfectly sound and reasonable position. Why should WE get any of the benefits without the costs?

Understand that and the EU position is perfectly logical. We will NOT get they deal that the Tory Govt say we want, because everyone knows it breaches that red line.

It needs us to be grown up about the negotiations. We KNEW this 4 years ago. Nothing has changed. We either get real about what sort of deal is available, or we leave with no deal.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The basic problem, all the way through the Brexit process has been the belief in British Exceptionalism.

We MUST get a good deal because we are BRITISH! And therefore we deserve it. You European types need us more than we need you and you will fold.

It's b*llocks. Childish b*llocks. It's the result of the national myth we have spun for three generations as the Empire collapsed and we couldn't come to terms with being one of a set of equals.

We are at the endgame now. We either grow up f**king smartish, or we add the effect of cutting ourselves off from one of the greatest economic powerhouses in history to the list of problems we will have to sort out post-CoVid.

[SydneyRover]

If we as a nation don't get over this we are better and we are different from them, future generations will find themselves in the poorhouse and in a pariah state. We don't have an empire and we don't rule the waves we are liitle Britain with a commercial hub, we can't even feed everyone.

[Glyn_Wigley]

There's very little doubt in my mind that the EU will have no hesitation in throwing the UK under the bus , Barnier ain't bluffing that much we do know during this process of 4 years and counting .

The question is how long Johnson will refrain from blinking .

He hasn't the balls for this game of Mexican Stand Off with the economic effects of the pandemic set to hit .

Expect a Chamberlain moment as he waves a piece of white paper proclaiming " deal in our time " as he steps on to the political Green Mile .

Be strong Boris , it's a big fall coming from the top job lad .

Throw the UK under the bus how? - by treating us the same as any other non-member state, or do you think they've something special lined up just for us?

[tyke1962]

There's very little doubt in my mind that the EU will have no hesitation in throwing the UK under the bus , Barnier ain't bluffing that much we do know during this process of 4 years and counting .

The question is how long Johnson will refrain from blinking .

He hasn't the balls for this game of Mexican Stand Off with the economic effects of the pandemic set to hit .

Expect a Chamberlain moment as he waves a piece of white paper proclaiming " deal in our time " as he steps on to the political Green Mile .

Be strong Boris , it's a big fall coming from the top job lad .

Throw the UK under the bus how? - by treating us the same as any other non-member state, or do you think they've something special lined up just for us?

Not how I intended it to be interpreted , Barnier has a job to do protecting the EU and I understand that .

What I meant was he wouldn't think twice about walking away from the negotiations if the UK are unrealistic in what are wanting .

[drfchound]

If we as a nation don't get over this we are better and we are different from them, future generations will find themselves in the poorhouse and in a pariah state. We don't have an empire and we don't rule the waves we are liitle Britain with a commercial hub, we can't even feed everyone.

“We”?
Are you back in Blighty then.

[selby]

  If you think things are as one sided as you think in the EU's favour You may be in for a surprise. Or is it just the way you would like it to be.
  If in the future (which I very much doubt) we do try to get back in, the Euro might not be around to have to deal with as we now know it, there might even be two versions for the northern and southern states.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

Read what I wrote.

It is very simple.

The EU wants the SM more than it wants a deal with us.

If you do not understand that, you will not understand what is going to pan out in the next few months.

[tyke1962]

  If you think things are as one sided as you think in the EU's favour You may be in for a surprise. Or is it just the way you would like it to be.
  If in the future (which I very much doubt) we do try to get back in, the Euro might not be around to have to deal with as we now know it, there might even be two versions for the northern and southern states.

No it isn't one sided Selby , WTO may well have been an option pre pandemic and we go from there but this thing is a real game changer now .

The smart thing to do would be to extend this for at least 18 months and address the economic health before restarting the negotiations .

The smart thing to do v your own ego and timeline you've set for yourself .

Better ask Dom .

[Not Now Kato]

  If you think things are as one sided as you think in the EU's favour You may be in for a surprise. Or is it just the way you would like it to be.
  If in the future (which I very much doubt) we do try to get back in, the Euro might not be around to have to deal with as we now know it, there might even be two versions for the northern and southern states.

Actually selby, a lot of people in this country will be in for a surprise.  Remember the promise that food standards would be maintained....
 
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/full-list-of-mps-who-voted-to-lower-our-food-standards-during-the-covid-pandemic/26/05/?fbclid=IwAR2OYFU1QIgXYdJsFeSpHbpCrLPO9G8cWwtOzLrOL1XjOREQSYuuCBC390U#.XsyuT_O4_qs.facebook
 
How many more lies and false promises need to be exposed before you levers realise that you've been well and truly had?

[DonnyOsmond]

The basic problem, all the way through the Brexit process has been the belief in British Exceptionalism.

We MUST get a good deal because we are BRITISH! And therefore we deserve it. You European types need us more than we need you and you will fold.

It's b*llocks. Childish b*llocks. It's the result of the national myth we have spun for three generations as the Empire collapsed and we couldn't come to terms with being one of a set of equals.

We are at the endgame now. We either grow up f**king smartish, or we add the effect of cutting ourselves off from one of the greatest economic powerhouses in history to the list of problems we will have to sort out post-CoVid.

There is the obsession about fishing too. Something worth so little in comparison to other sectors which seem to be forgotten about.

[selby]

  Billy you can throw theories about all you want, The leaders of the EU are hell bent on punishing the UK not primarily to hurt the UK but to keep the status Quo in their little kingdom fearing more countries leaving with the polls in italy especially looking to move in that direction.
  The Industrialists however are not in anyway as keen on that idea at all. The Germans are beginning to realise along with other northern states that the dept and payments towards the southern states plus their printing of fictitious money is now looking to be  permanent, and realise that the money 90 billion euros here another 80 billion euros there will never be repaid, it is not possible when the countries benefiting started the covid crisis in negative territory to start with and problems with trading with us will be a big hit at a bad time.
   We are not in the best of health, but want to stay well clear of getting mixed up in any of that s**t, and if there is no agreement at the end of this month  we will start the pull away.

[SydneyRover]

you wouldn't have anything to support your latest string theory selby?

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Billy you can throw theories about all you want, The leaders of the EU are hell bent on punishing the UK not primarily to hurt the UK but to keep the status Quo in their little kingdom fearing more countries leaving with the polls in italy especially looking to move in that direction.
  The Industrialists however are not in anyway as keen on that idea at all. The Germans are beginning to realise along with other northern states that the dept and payments towards the southern states plus their printing of fictitious money is now looking to be  permanent, and realise that the money 90 billion euros here another 80 billion euros there will never be repaid, it is not possible when the countries benefiting started the covid crisis in negative territory to start with and problems with trading with us will be a big hit at a bad time.
   We are not in the best of health, but want to stay well clear of getting mixed up in any of that s**t, and if there is no agreement at the end of this month  we will start the pull away.

So now I'll ask you the exact same question as I asked Tyke. And at least he was able to answer it, are you?

Will they be punishing us by treating us exactly the same as any other non-member state, or do you think they've something special lined up just for us? And if you do believe that, what is it?

PS You accuse others of coming up with theories and then you post that? Nice one.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby.

It's not a theory. It's been a consistent line from the EU all the way through from early 2016 for those who are prepared to take their fingers out of their ears and listen.

I'll repeat it, because it doesn't seem to be sinking into your head.

The EU value the coherence of the Single Market way above anything they will get from a deal with us. Therefore they will not offer us a deal that in any way endangers the SM.

That's simply how it is. There's no moral judgement in saying that. It is just a fact.

The Leave side have been poo-pooing that fact for four and a half years. They have six months left to address it now, because it is not going away.

The rest of your post is pointless guff. Nothing to do with that fact.

[selby]

Glyn Billy, you don't get it do you, the rhetoric has changed it is not them treating us as just a third world entity, it is us now willing to treat them as one, and we will be a dangerous one just off the main continent of Europe.
 It can be avoided, but the people now under the most pressure to avoid it is the EU.
  We have past the point where that was a political problem, we are out and have the choice of two ways to go, would prefer a fee trade agreement but are willing not to have one and if you want become the rogue on their doorstep, which will happen if the EU play hard ball.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I don't know this world you inhabit Selby, where a loss of trade divided by 500million people is a bigger threat than the same loss of trade divided by 65 million, but it's not the one that the rest of us live in.

I'll say once more.

1) Premise - The EU sees threats to the SM caused by offering us a preferential deal as a bigger threat than the damage caused to them by us walking away without a deal.

2) Effect on EU action - They will not offer us a preferential deal that gives us a better economic position OUTSIDE the SM than we had INSIDE it.

3) Effect on UK action - We have to decide if we are really going to walk away with no deal.

4) Effect on EU of No Deal: They get a big, negative economic hit in terms of lost trade with us. That is spread between 500 million people. But the SM isn't compromised.

5) Effect on UK of No Deal: We get a big, negative economic hit in terms of lost trade with the EU. That is spread between 65 million people and so is much more intense. We have the possibility of mitigating that hit by increasing trade with the rest of the world. But there is no credible economist anywhere who thinks that effect will come remotely close to making up for the massive hit to us from reduced EU trade. The only people telling us it will be OK are the likes of Farage AND Rees-Mogg.


Nothing else matters. Any other argument is just piss and wind.

When you realise the premise, the rest is just simple application of logic.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Glyn Billy, you don't get it do you, the rhetoric has changed it is not them treating us as just a third world entity, it is us now willing to treat them as one, and we will be a dangerous one just off the main continent of Europe.
 It can be avoided, but the people now under the most pressure to avoid it is the EU.
  We have past the point where that was a political problem, we are out and have the choice of two ways to go, would prefer a fee trade agreement but are willing not to have one and if you want become the rogue on their doorstep, which will happen if the EU play hard ball.

Once more, in English?

You haven't got the first clue what a Free Trade Agreement actually entails.

[ravenrover]

I don't know this world you inhabit Selby, where a loss of trade divided by 500million people is a bigger threat than the same loss of trade divided by 65 million, but it's not the one that the rest of us live in.

I'll say once more.

1) Premise - The EU sees threats to the SM caused by offering us a preferential deal as a bigger threat than the damage caused to them by us walking away without a deal.

2) Effect on EU action - They will not offer us a preferential deal that gives us a better economic position OUTSIDE the SM than we had INSIDE it.

3) Effect on UK action - We have to decide if we are really going to walk away with no deal.

4) Effect on EU of No Deal: They get a big, negative economic hit in terms of lost trade with us. That is spread between 500 million people. But the SM isn't compromised.

5) Effect on UK of No Deal: We get a big, negative economic hit in terms of lost trade with the EU. That is spread between 65 million people and so is much more intense. We have the possibility of mitigating that hit by increasing trade with the rest of the world. But there is no credible economist anywhere who thinks that effect will come remotely close to making up for the massive hit to us from reduced EU trade. The only people telling us it will be OK are the likes of Farage AND Rees-Mogg.


Nothing else matters. Any other argument is just piss and wind.

When you realise the premise, the rest is just simple application of logic.

Billy isn't one of the main sticking points access to British waters and same quota of fish for E U? Without this agreement it will cripple the fishing industries in France and Spain so I'm led to believe so at the moment it looks like Boris Cummings has his way No Deal

[selby]

  Glynn, I know you are a bastion of the new lefties liberal elite that belittle everybody and throw out what you think are clever insults and everyone who disagrees with you are thick and seem to just want to get angry and shout how good you are, but it gets a bit tiresome  when you have got sod all right in the last four years buddy.
  Billy you can whittle those 500million down mate the French,Spanish, Italians, and Greeks are not in it to put anything in, Rumania and some of the others  are still trotting about on a horse and cart and are also used to holding their hands out for the goodies along with Ireland and Poland. The Greeks and Italians and possibly Spain will not be contributing as much as a scratched arse for quite some time. That leaves the northern states who do the most trade with us, and are already balking at picking up their mates tab as it is.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Selby

I'm not interested in your ignorant semi-racist rantings.

Address the point I made about the importance of the SM to the EU.

Nothing else is relevant.

[Glyn_Wigley]

  Glynn, I know you are a bastion of the new lefties liberal elite that belittle everybody and throw out what you think are clever insults and everyone who disagrees with you are thick and seem to just want to get angry and shout how good you are, but it gets a bit tiresome  when you have got sod all right in the last four years buddy.
  Billy you can whittle those 500million down mate the French,Spanish, Italians, and Greeks are not in it to put anything in, Rumania and some of the others  are still trotting about on a horse and cart and are also used to holding their hands out for the goodies along with Ireland and Poland. The Greeks and Italians and possibly Spain will not be contributing as much as a scratched arse for quite some time. That leaves the northern states who do the most trade with us, and are already balking at picking up their mates tab as it is.

Go on, tell us what you think a Free Trade Agreement entails, and let's all see whether it agrees with the twenty years experience of being an International Trade Officer with Customs that I bring to the table.

Still waiting to hear if you think the EU will be punishing us by treating us exactly the same as any other non-member state, or if you think they've something special lined up just for us?

Or are you just going to waffle yet again?

[wilts rover]

 
  Billy you can whittle those 500million down mate the French,Spanish, Italians, and Greeks are not in it to put anything in, Rumania and some of the others  are still trotting about on a horse and cart and are also used to holding their hands out for the goodies along with Ireland and Poland. The Greeks and Italians and possibly Spain will not be contributing as much as a scratched arse for quite some time. That leaves the northern states who do the most trade with us, and are already balking at picking up their mates tab as it is.

That is totally and factually wrong and incorrect - certainly with regard to the Brexit negotiations as reported last week. If anything the negotiations are bringing the northern EU states closer together - and demanding Barnier takes a tougher line than he was proposing.

As Raven correctly states fishing rights are the big sticking point at present - so nothing else will go anywhere until and unless there is an agreement on these:

For the first time since the start of the negotiations, Barnier this week consulted with fisheries ministers from France, Germany, Spain, Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, Ireland and Belgium. Their message was clear: There is no room for compromise by the EU.

"There was nervousness after some press reports that the EU would be willing to concede on fish," said one EU official. "That meeting had already been planned, but it was good to reassure EU countries that we were sticking to our plan."

"The unanimity among ministers was striking," said one EU diplomat who listened in on the meeting. "Ministers all stressed how important it was that the Commission is sticking to its negotiating mandate."

For the EU, an agreement on fishing is a precondition to a wider deal.  "Fisheries must not be an adjustment variable or a political symbol in the Brexit equation. No fisheries agreement means no post-Brexit agreement," François-Xavier Bellamy, who is responsible for the file in the European Parliament's fish committee, said this week.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-uk-fishing-in-troubled-waters-in-brexit-talks/

[Not Now Kato]

Glyn Billy, you don't get it do you, the rhetoric has changed it is not them treating us as just a third world entity, it is us now willing to treat them as one, and we will be a dangerous one just off the main continent of Europe.
 It can be avoided, but the people now under the most pressure to avoid it is the EU.
  We have past the point where that was a political problem, we are out and have the choice of two ways to go, would prefer a fee trade agreement but are willing not to have one and if you want become the rogue on their doorstep, which will happen if the EU play hard ball.

Once more, in English?

You haven't got the first clue what a Free Trade Agreement actually entails.

You could have stopped typing after word six, second sentence   

[SydneyRover]

 this about fishing rights.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52420116

[Colemans Left Hook]

this about fishing rights.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52420116

fishing rights deserves its own thread

what i heard is the other week was that the EU has no common fishing policy on the mediterreanean

thought i'd check this out

if you google  eu "fishing policy" on the mediterranean  all sorts of tins of worms
  sorry sardines are opened



this backs up what i read about the "no policy" on the med   yes this was 2014   . In 2010 we had fake promises reported on a Malta site
 
 A) https://eu.oceana.org/en/press-center/press-releases/european-commission-confirms-91-mediterranean-stocks-are-overfished

"European Commission confirms 91% of mediterranean stocks are overfished"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
B) 13 Jul 2011   European Commission apologises for disastrous fishing policy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8635623/European-Commission-apologises-for-disastrous-fishing-policy.html

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

C....)
now this is interesting   BST's favourite mate Michael (tip toe & funny walk) Gove  "allegedly" said in 2017

https://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/eu-fishing-boats-can-operate-in-uk-waters-after-brexit-says-gove/