Brexit deal

[scawsby steve]

So when does everyone think the Election will be?

[BillyStubbsTears]

My guess (and it is only a guess) is that Parliament, one way or another, blocks No Deal in late Oct. Johnson either forced to go to Brussels to ask for a Brexit extension and responds by calling a "People Vs Treacherous MPs" election in Nov/Dec.

Or he refuses to go to Brussels, he loses a vote of No Confidence in Parliament and is replaced by a caretaker PM who negotiated the extension then dissolves Parliament and there's an Election in Nov/Dec.

I can't see any way we get to the end of the year without an Election.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Bookies have a 2019 GE odds on. Best price you can get on it is 2/5.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/year-of-next-general-election

[wilts rover]

Wilts.

You appear not to grasp the war going on inside the Tory party. They are already chucking bombs between the right wing and the centre. Hasn't stopped the Tories pulling well ahead of Labour in the polls...

You don't win an election in opinion polls - you win it by gaining most seats.

He is hated in Scotland so will probably loose all 12 MP's there. Lib Dems have a lot of close marginals in the south west/south/welsh borders, estimates show between 12 and 30 gains. Thats 30+ seats he needs to take off Labour just to stand still. Then the Tory MP's who vote to bring him down - what will happen in their seats - why would a Johnson supporter vote for them?

It will be another hung parliament with the Lib Dems holding the balance of power - thats what ALL the polls are showing. Who they support will decide who the next PM is. Vote Swinson get Boris will look good on the side of the bus.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wilts.

If YouGov are right (and they got the EU election bang on) and it ends up
Con 30-32
Lab 20-22
LD 20-22

Johnson will win at a canter.

Vote Swindon get Boris is a good one.

Trouble is, Vote Corbyn get Brexit will also have traction.

And if Lab and the LDs spend the campaign laying into each other...

[wilts rover]

If yougov are right then the projections are Johnson will loose 1 seat (to the Brexit Party). So we shall be exactly where we are - ungovernable.

How did yougov do on Peterborough btw?

[albie]

Billy,

The error you keep making is to apply polling estimates of national trend, (themselves with wide uncertainty ranges), to local outcomes.

You have referred before to "polling evidence". Polls are NOT evidence of anything other than the assumptions behind the methodology.

Two questions;

1) What does a 30% share of the vote buy you in a general election with a 4 way split?
2) How do you apportion the vote between parties in seats which are clearly 2 way marginals?

I suspect votes will return to the "least worst" option with a chance of winning the particular seat.

You seem to assume Labour need to achieve a 40% + share to become the single largest party.
I don't know why that would be the case in a 4 way split.
 
What evidence (please, not polls) supports this view?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Albie

1) Where have I ever said that Labour need 40+% to be the largest party? You're a bright lad. You do t need to set up straw men to argue against.

2) I'm not making any assumptions on local effects, other than to claim that a party that polls 20% nationally as an average will not be remotely close to being the largest party in Parliament.

3) You keep on saying that voters will make sensible choices. And yet we know that several hundred thousand left-wing voters didn't make the sensible choice to keep the Tories out in 2010. I'm bemused that you think it will be different this time.

[albie]

BST,

I hoped that you could resist the temptation to deflect off the point, in the manner of BB.

You have many times referred to Labour polling below the high water mark of the 2017 GE, and concluded (incorrectly) that Labour cannot be the largest single party on the basis of a lower % of the vote.

This is why I have asked Q1 and 2 above.
So what is the answer, please?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Albie. You are wrong. I haven't said that Labour cannot be the largest party on a vote share lower than the high water mark. You can stop doubling down on this whenever you want and then maybe I'll start addressing the questions you raise. Until then, you appear to be discussing this either in ignorance or in bad faith.

I fail to see how I can be "deflecting off point" when I'm actually directly addressing a specific question of yours.

[SydneyRover]

And there you have it, no trade deal with the US if you f#c# with the backstop and even if and when a deal is made it will be eat my sh#t, hmm can't wait. Well at least UK kids will grow up, and up and ...........

''UK must accept US food standards in trade deal, says farm chief''

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49353220

[SydneyRover]

Has Hammond been slinking around the forum using a VPN?

''Hammond’s argument, set out in a Times article and a Today programme interview, boils down to five big points. First, the hit to the economy from no deal will be both immediate and enduring. Second, no deal risks hastening the break-up of the United Kingdom. Third, voters were not offered no deal in 2016 and did not vote for it. Fourth, Johnson’s demand to scrap the Irish backstop is a wrecking tactic designed to hasten a no-deal outcome. Finally, a sovereign parliament can, should and will stop no deal''

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/14/uk-nation-defining-battle-split-tories

[scawsby steve]

Wilts.

If YouGov are right (and they got the EU election bang on) and it ends up
Con 30-32
Lab 20-22
LD 20-22

Johnson will win at a canter.

Vote Swindon get Boris is a good one.

Trouble is, Vote Corbyn get Brexit will also have traction.

And if Lab and the LDs spend the campaign laying into each other...

It's already started Billy. The hysterical Jo Swinson and Mr Slimeball Chuka Umunna are both laying into Corbyn's plans to head a government of national unity.

Who on Earth would listen to a man who's been in 3 different political parties in less than 12 months? If I were a Remainer I'd be seriously concerned about such people representing my views.

[SydneyRover]

''Leaders call for £39bn for Northern Powerhouse Rail project''

Boris Johnson has said ''a trans-Pennine transport link would turbo-charge the economy"

And if we get No-Deal, yes yes yes we can still afford it and there will be 1st class seats for everyone.

but its got aaaaaaaaabsolutely nooooooooooothing to do with an election honest and we will honour the promise after the election promise you have my word.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-49321579

[Donnywolf]

They might even get round to ditching the Pacer trains.

Their withdrawal date was years ago - and it was all failing Grayling could ever say when challenged and now just last week they withdrew ONE F****R !

One down and about 78 more to go. Dont worry Johnson / Grayling they are almost exclusively used by we Northerners !

[Donnywolf]

Just seen this Tweet which made me chuckle in an ironis way



2016: TURKEY ARE TRYING TO JOIN THE EU!!!

2016 Scunthorpe votes 68.68% to leave the EU

2019: British Steel in Scunthorpe goes into administration because of Brexit

2019 Turkey buys British Steel Scunthorpe and saves 4,500 jobs

August 2019 Ironic-o-meter just about exploded

[SydneyRover]

Just in leaked Whiteshall plans for no-deal brexit show Brititain will face shortages of Food, Fuel, medicine and Jam.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9745142/cabinets-leaked-no-deal-brexit-plan/ 

[SydneyRover]

David Davis: ''remainers backing Jeremy Corbyn should be careful what they wish for''

Yes that's right we wouldn't want total 777king chaos like we've had for the past 3 years with the state ungovernable 3 leaders in 3 years mass resignations from the ministry, rebels walking out, Britain's economy down the plughole and the nation divided. Let's all play nicely and vote for boris, not.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9743363/david-davis-tory-rebels-backing-corbyn/

[Donnywolf]

.... or put another way - I just found this on Twitter


Brexit is the greatest political heist of all time. A giant con led by group of right wing libertarians who exploited the concerns of millions of people to convince them that they were taking back control, when in fact, they are losing control to the people who conned them.

[bpoolrover]

David Davis: ''remainers backing Jeremy Corbyn should be careful what they wish for''

Yes that's right we wouldn't want total 777king chaos like we've had for the past 3 years with the state ungovernable 3 leaders in 3 years mass resignations from the ministry, rebels walking out, Britain's economy down the plughole and the nation divided. Let's all play nicely and vote for boris, not.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9743363/david-davis-tory-rebels-backing-corbyn/

it’s all well saying that Sydney but do you think Corbyn is the answer or will Britain still be divided

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course Britain will still be divided. Whatever happens, we're left deeply divided for a generation.

Question is, to we end up deeply divided, or deeply divided with no clean drinking water coming through the taps, and lorries full of urgent medical supplies stuck for 60 hours at Calais and Dover as the leaked Govt planning doc today said could very well happen in the event of No Deal.

[SydneyRover]

BP, in the short term to guide the country out of no-deal danger yes I'm confident Corbyn could do that, at least he could be trusted not to try to deliberately fail just to get no-deal. Boris has shown the world that he's untrustworthy that his word is worthless so why would you trust him to take the best options for the country rather than himself. You never know when he's telling the truth he can't answer a straight question his minders are pulling the strings and now as they were in the leadership race are trying not to expose him to public scrutiny. Look at the fb pmq's all the hard questions filtered out.

[bpoolrover]

Of course Britain will still be divided. Whatever happens, we're left deeply divided for a generation.

Question is, to we end up deeply divided, or deeply divided with no clean drinking water coming through the taps, and lorries full of urgent medical supplies stuck for 60 hours at Calais and Dover as the leaked Govt planning doc today said could very well happen in the event of No Deal.

. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJS9RdilpdbEkAIkB0g81Q;_ylu=X3oDMTBydHRqMjgyBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1566243549/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2finews.co.uk%2fnews%2fbrexit%2fno-deal-brexit-dover-calais-ports-consequences-queues-france%2f/RK=2/RS=5TPWbXSWPlt3Yw1OtUWP7a2RKbA- Maybe this chap is right

[SydneyRover]

Have you been asleep for a couple of days BP and missed the leaked gov't paper predicting more chaos than the past 3 years?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Of course Britain will still be divided. Whatever happens, we're left deeply divided for a generation.

Question is, to we end up deeply divided, or deeply divided with no clean drinking water coming through the taps, and lorries full of urgent medical supplies stuck for 60 hours at Calais and Dover as the leaked Govt planning doc today said could very well happen in the event of No Deal.

. https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrJS9RdilpdbEkAIkB0g81Q;_ylu=X3oDMTBydHRqMjgyBGNvbG8DaXIyBHBvcwM1BHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1566243549/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2finews.co.uk%2fnews%2fbrexit%2fno-deal-brexit-dover-calais-ports-consequences-queues-france%2f/RK=2/RS=5TPWbXSWPlt3Yw1OtUWP7a2RKbA- Maybe this chap is right

Odd that our Govt's own planning document says there is a serious risk of a shortage of food, chemicals for water treatment and medical supplies, and that there may be 60 hour delays at Dover.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Looks like we can add the Financial Times to the list of organisations in on the Project Fear scam.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1163328767240081408

Mind, they ARE talking about the damage that's already been done to our economy, rather than the carnage yet to come, but I'm sure you Leave supporters will have some reason why it's actually the Establishment trying to cheat you out of your Brexit.

[bpoolrover]

Have you been asleep for a couple of days BP and missed the leaked gov't paper predicting more chaos than the past 3 years?

yes they said that was worse case scenario

[BillyStubbsTears]

No. Michael Gove said it was the "very, very worst case scenario". But, as usual, he's lying to you.

The entire planning strategy is NOT a worst case scenario, and certainly not the "very, very worst case". SOME of the assumptions are based on a "reasonable worst case" but most of them are reasonable, credible assumptions of what No Deal will result in.

[SydneyRover]

''Ahead of Johnson’s talks, No 10 said the prime minister has been clear that “there cannot be any actual negotiations unless the backstop goes; that’s the message he has delivered to leaders in his phone conversations and he will do that face to face”.

“We have been clear that what the EU needs to understand is that unless the withdrawal agreement can be reopened and the backstop abolished, there isn’t any prospect of a deal.”

Johnson is a funny stupid lying kitson, knowing the EU has said no negotiations of anything, he then trots out "unless you change the backstop there will be no negotiations"???

His chief advisor BB said "we will be putting some new tyres on the bike and repainting the hall"

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesus f**king wept.

Have you seen this? Have you SEEN what our PM is saying in our name in his letter to Donald Tusk?

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/boris-johnson/news/106014/read-full-boris-johnsons

If you can't be arsed, I'll precis it.

1) We can't have the backstop because that would mean staying in the CU.

2) Having said we want to leave the CU, we don't want any customs checks at the border between NI and Ireland.

3) We think there's some magic, creative solution to be found if we just really, really try.

4) We've f**k all idea what that solution is, but we want you to forget about that and trust us that it'll be found.

5) If it's not found, we'll...err...have to think of something else. But not the Backstop.

6) Yes, I KNOW you spent 2 years thrashing this out with May, and the Backstop is the only possible solution. I KNOW all that, but I'm not actually writing this to you Donald. I'm writing it to the great Brexit public. See, I believe that the people who want Brexit and want it NOW, are so f**king thick that they've not been paying attention this last 3 years. I reckon if I look like the hard man, slapping you down, they'll all vote for me in the Autumn. I know! Shameless, isn't it!