Brexit Negotiations

[selby]

  The shit has hit the fan, David Davis has resigned. Interesting times ahead?

[hoolahoop]

I wasn’t meaning you Idler. Read it again.

Sorry BST.  I have read it again.

He is referring to Ian Dunt who wrote the article surely - thats how I read it Idler.

[hoolahoop]

I live in one of the 2 lowest gdp areas in the uk(Cornwall and isle of Scilly) guess what? Its leave central here, again in spite of the funding going on via the eu!?
Its this I cant grasp as in Yorkshire, Teesside ect!? What do they want because it certainly wasn't to decimate their own back yards ??!
Answers on a postcard in 20yrs time when the dust has settled

It's simply that they ( The Leavers ) have been told that if anything bad is happening in their town, region, country then it was all the fault of the Common Agricultural/ Fisheries policies inflicted on them by the EU or any other bollox that could be made up to deflect from the deficiencies or forward planning from Westminster.

Perfect example - insufficient schools , hospitals etc . were the fault of EU migrants working and paying not only tax but national insurance for the last 40 + years . Really  It ignores the fact that many did not stay to pensionable age and therefore were not likely to be either a burden on Social benefits or the NHS. That's where the scapegoating starts to begin. It ignores the fact completely that many of these migrants were highly skilled and in all likelihood would have had private health schemes or many would have worked in the bloody NHS  looking after us !!

[hoolahoop]

The problem is that people voting for Brexit expected a grown up responsible negotiation about leaving not this circus.
The result was immediately hijacked by idiots and hardliners putting words in people's mouths.

You’re shitting me, right?

You expected a grown up negotiation?

When the people who brought you Brexit had said repeatedly during the campaign:

1) There would be a £350m/week Brexit Bonus.
2) Turkey was about to join the EU and we’d be liable for 80m Turks landing on British shores if we didn’t leave.
3) There’d be no problem sorting out the Irish border problem.
4) The EU wouldn’t bargain hard against us because...well, because.
5) That the UK electorate was tired of listening to experts, and that experts who supported Remain were like 1930s German experts who supported Hitler.

You HEARD them say these things repeatedly. You KNOW that they were bullshit and lies. You knew THEN that they were bullshit and lies.

Why did you expect that the people who had bullshitted and lied to you would suddenly start negotiating like grown-ups?

YOU voted us into this f**k up. You were being told at the time that the Brexit cheerleaders wouldn’t have a f**king clue what to do if they won. And still you voted for them.

This is YOUR mess and the mess of everyone who ignored the grown ups two years ago. Don’t come complaining about it now.

Do leave voters make you this angry in real life or just at your keyboard?

Yes Padge when they don't or should I say aren't prepared to listen to the common sense realities of the situation . Facts , experts, statistics all go out of the window for some .
There's a reason why there aren't any lengthy rebuttals against the Remain arguments on here - it's simply that few if any exist !

[The Red Baron]

  The shit has hit the fan, David Davis has resigned. Interesting times ahead?

It just occurred to me that the last time we reached the World Cup semi-final we had a female Conservative Prime Minister. She didn't survive the autumn. I doubt this one will now.

[DonnyOsmond]

Why not have the people's vote. It at least stops the people saying 17 million voted for a certain kind of Brexit.

[Filo]

  The shit has hit the fan, David Davis has resigned. Interesting times ahead?

He's achieved something at last, though it took him about six attempts to get there

[Glyn_Wigley]

Why not have the people's vote. It at least stops the people saying 17 million voted for a certain kind of Brexit.

Because now the Brexiteers have 'got our sovereignty back', they want to keep it for themselves!

[MachoMadness]

He finally sacked up and did it. I can't imagine there'll be too many MPs keen on taking his job, either.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I wasn’t meaning you Idler. Read it again.

Sorry BST.  I have read it again.

He is referring to Ian Dunt who wrote the article surely - thats how I read it Idler.

I was quoting what May was effectively saying to the headcase Brexiteers.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Genius.
https://mobile.twitter.com/chunkymark/status/1016035965431894018


What a f**king catastrophe. The Vote that was supposed to sort out the schism in the Tory party once and for all, has only entrenched it, while taking the bloody country off the cliff.

[The Red Baron]

Why not have the people's vote. It at least stops the people saying 17 million voted for a certain kind of Brexit.

I'm coming round to thinking it might be the only way out of the impasse. Trouble is, the Labour leadership is no more in favour than the Government.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Here's the problem.

The Referedum vote majority was wafer thin. There is no way on earth that there was a majority in the country for a Hard Brexit.

BUT. There is a majority in the Tory party for a Hard Brexit.

So as soon as we had the vote, it was hijacked by the Hard Brexiter Tories as meaning that we had to go for a big division from Europe.

May felt she had to go along with that, or lose here position as PM.

So she pandered to the Hard Brexiters in the Lancaster House speech, by saying that we would definitely leave the SM, CU and ECJ.

THAT was a strategic mistake of huge proportions. She did that because it was in the interests of keeping HER position intact and the Hard Brexiters on side. But it was NOT in the country's interests. Because it led us into a stance which could not possibly result in an outcome that was acceptable to the EU and wouldn't hammer our economy.

So we've f**ked about for 18 months, hoping something would crop up that would sort it out. And nothing has come up.

So, finally, two bleeding years after the vote, May has faced reality and accepted that we have to have the softest of Brexits.

And now the Hard Brexiters are in revolt.

Two wasted years.

Where we are today is where we should have been in October 2016. May should have faced down the Hard Brexiters back then and forced the issue. If they responded by rebelling and forcing her out, then so be it. THAT would have been what was in the country's interests - sort out a tenable position as early as possible.

Instead, she'd put the Tory party and her position as paramount. That has led us into two years of blunder and wasted time, kicking around options that would either not work, or not be acceptable to the EU.

NOW, after these wasted two years, we have no plan AND open rebellion in the Tory party. And only 2 months to sort our shit out.

This is a catastrophe of historic proportions. We're stumbling into disaster and we're no nearer to sorting out what the Tory party wants than we have been over this past 30 years.

There's only one sensible way forward now. We delay the whole negotiating process until we get a clear and agreed line from the UK Govt. Assuming the EU will play ball. And I f**king wouldn't in their shoes. I'd say, two choices: You either stay in and grow up. Or you leave without a deal. Your choice. Two months to decide. You have f**ked us about for years and we've had enough. We're not talking to you any more until you clearly decide which of those two paths you want to take.

[The Red Baron]

BST

Interesting that a remain-supporting Tory MP was yesterday suggesting that we ask for a stay of Article 50. Which is pretty much what you are saying. Obviously that would be anathema to the Hard Brexiteers but I can see other MPs thinking the idea had merit.

I don't think May's plan is very likely to survive the scrutiny of Barnier and the Commission anyway and they will demand more concessions. So it seems very unlikely any sort of deal will emerge before the autumn.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

Agreed.

The point is that somehow, the boil has got to be lanced in the Tory party. What May has done for the last two years is to avoid this moment. She's tried to placate the Hard Brexiters whilst knowing that their approach was utterly impossible to implement. There wasn't a Hard Brexit DEAL that could be acceptable to the EU. The Hard Brexiters knew this, and wanted us to get to a point where we'd have no option but a No Deal exit. But there's no majority in Parliament for that. Which is why there was such a fight over the right of Parlimanent to have a vote on the final arrangements.

We're now close to the end game. As you say, there is very little chance of getting a sensible deal negotiated with the EU in the time we have left, with the Govt in such disarray. So the only options are to go for a cliff-edge No Deal exit. Or to effectively put the negotiations on hold until we in the UK decide just exactly what sort of Brexit we actually want.

[SydneyRover]

A hard Brexit is still on the cards. The EU must accept May's offer or face the consequences.

We are already dealing with the consequences, Britain is on a downhill fiscal trajecTORY, and has been since Cameron wet himself.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/07/09/hard-brexit-still-cards-eu-must-accept-mays-offer-face-consequences/.

[BillyStubbsTears]

One thing you can be sure of. While the nation’s entire approach to its future is going to Hell, there’ll be one particular t**t having meetings to see how his career can profit from the chaos.

https://mobile.twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1016300671270772738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1016300671270772738&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fuk-politics-44762836

[MachoMadness]

BoJo has resigned apparently. What a towering intellect lost from the cabinet.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/09/boris-johnson-resigns-as-foreign-secretary-brexit

[BillyStubbsTears]

So May is now in her worst nightmare.

- No possibility of getting Parliamentary support for her Brexit Deal. (Labour have said they won’t support it and with the Tory Hard Brexiteers in open revolt, she hadn’t got the numbers to get it through).

- No possibility of getting EU support for the sort of deal that would appease the Tory Brexiteers.

Struggling to see how she survives this.

I reckon by the end of the week, there’ll be a formal bid to replace her, or she will resign.

[BillyStubbsTears]

30 years of in-fighting.

It’s coming home...

[MachoMadness]

How lucky for the Tories that if England bring it home everyone will be too pissed to care the government is burning itself to the ground. Dele Alli for foreign sec I reckon.

[RedJ]

Give it Vardy til the end of the season.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Can you begin to imagine what the history books are going to say about May?

She accepted being regularly humiliated by Johnson. She ignored a dozen occasions when she should have sacked him.

Then he sticks up his middle finger at her by resigning.

The worst and weakest PM ever? 

[Copps is Magic]

I think history will look upon Cameron as the villain of the piece. A man who drove the country to austerity and pandered to small section of is own party to pose a ludicrous question that never made sense as a single vote to the British public.

I'm mildly happy that, even just for a brief moment, Johnson is out of the British government and Gove is not the secretary for brexit as some were suggesting was possible late last night. Thank f**k for that.

Politicians have an incredible talent for self-preservation. I wouldn't underestimate May's ability to navigate this. She's a post ideological politician anyway, she'll floats like the wind, happy to ride a shit storm.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Gove will be Foreign Secretary tonight. Possibly PM by this time next week.

[BillyStubbsTears]

As for May, yes she believes in nothing, but every person’s pride has its limits.

She has just pinned her colours to the mast of the Brexit deal she wanted. She now cannot get support to go forward with that deal. It would take a Herculean amount of ability to ignore embarrassment to go and try to begitiate a different deal. Knowing that, now dissent is out in the open, no possible deal that the Tory party will support would be accepted by the EU.

Gone by Friday. If not tonight.

[MachoMadness]

Beautiful quote from Armando Iannucci on Twitter just now.

"You can always rely on Boris to be second over the parapet."

[Glyn_Wigley]

As for May, yes she believes in nothing, but every person’s pride has its limits.

She has just pinned her colours to the mast of the Brexit deal she wanted. She now cannot get support to go forward with that deal. It would take a Herculean amount of ability to ignore embarrassment to go and try to begitiate a different deal. Knowing that, now dissent is out in the open, no possible deal that the Tory party will support would be accepted by the EU.

Gone by Friday. If not tonight.

The thing is, now we've got to the stage where any PM has to lay their cards on the table and say 'this is the Brexit we're going for' can ANY potential Tory leader get enough support to achieve anything?

[Copps is Magic]

This was all eminently clear when she lost her majority and mandate at the last election. But shr trundled along regardless.

[Glyn_Wigley]

This was all eminently clear when she lost her majority and mandate at the last election. But shr trundled along regardless.

Oh dear God, that makes me think she's stupid enough and desperate enough to call another election to pre-empt her own party ditching her. Eek!