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Simply will not be a second referendum.....
Quote from: Boomstick on December 10, 2018, 01:19:20 pmSimply will not be a second referendum.....How can you possibly say that with any certainty.??The whole Brexit is a complete clusterf**k whether you want to leave or stay, the government has made a shambles of it all so any outcome is still possible..
There's not going to be a General Election. Get that clear. Neither the Tory party or the DUP (once May has gone) want one. They have a majority in the Commons. So there won't be one. We WILL have a Tory Govt with DUP support sorting out the clusterf**k that THEY got us into. May will go. Someone else will take over but get this clear in your heads. Parliament will not allow a No Deal Brexit to occur. Get that clear and the consequence is obvious. There is now no possible way that this Parliament can support ANY deal. Neither a softer deal which Lab would propose, or a harder deal which the Johnson wing if the Tory party would propose can get a majority. There is no possible outcome to get us out of the impasse apart from a referendum on CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS questions about what Leave means.
Go on then BS. How do we proceed from here?Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"
Actually, the enormity of May pulling this vote and scuttling off back to Brussels is only just dawning on me.Our system of Govt is supposed to be about Parliament being sovereign, but the PM having some quite exceptional powers as, effectively the Chief Executive Officer. In theory, the PM can only operate with the consent of Parliament, but in practice, for most of my lifetime, PMs have had very large majorities in the Commons. Thatcher never had less that 40. Blair and Brown never had less than 60. Most of the time they had majorities above 100. Even Cameron in 2010-15, once he'd got the LDs acting as safe poodles had a majority of more than 70 seats.In those circumstances, unless they f**k up monumentally, the PM is all-powerful. They can cope with a couple of dozen rebels on their side voting against them and they don't have to placate them. So, Parliament tends to become very lacking in power and the PM does as the PM says.May's situation has shown that we are now in a totally different scenario. I have never in all my life seen Parliament effectively say to a PM "NO! We are not accepting what you say" on such an important issue. I've never seen a PM running scared of Parliament and go scuttling off to other countries begging for help to save his/her career.But that's where we are today. A PM in office but not in power.
I assume the 1922 Committee will now get the 48 votes required to trigger a leadership vote.Do the Tories support May to prevent Gove/Johnson/Rees-Smug gaining control, or is there another option to hold the rabid right at arms length?After she falls (or is pushed) a new leader does not change the numbers game. It just puts someone else in the intractable position of leading a government without power.They can choose to plough on, but to what end?The key point is that a government needs a working majority, and that can only be delivered by a GE.But there is a further problem that the fixed term parliament act can only be set aside by 2/3 majority in the HoC. Does anyone think that is achievable, unless a significant number of Tory MP's join the SNP and Labour to act?The DUP could choose to abstain on this one....but that is not a reliable prediction. They say that they will not support a vote of confidence raised by Labour, but remain bullish about a GE.We will find out in the New Year whether Turkeys will vote for Christmas!
I notice that May was repeating her old mantra that the alternative to leaving with a deal (ie her deal) was leaving without a deal. The ruling on Article 50 makes that position untenable now.
Quote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 10, 2018, 01:43:45 pmGo on then BS. How do we proceed from here?Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"Renegotiate with the EU (probably won't happen) or persuade MPs it's the only deal we will get .
Quote from: Boomstick on December 10, 2018, 02:11:22 pmQuote from: BillyStubbsTears on December 10, 2018, 01:43:45 pmGo on then BS. How do we proceed from here?Not "what do you want to happen?" "What, practically CAN happen?"Renegotiate with the EU (probably won't happen) or persuade MPs it's the only deal we will get . And when they inevitably fail? What will you do then?