Coronavirus

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Good to see the case rates now dropping in Central London.

Lambeth, reported as the worst effected and least protected, now showing a drop in 7 day average.

Hospitakisations there have gone up significantly, but only a quarter of the peak seen last January.

Also note case rates in Scotland now waning too.

Hopefully, as it spreads rapidly to areas with better protected with jabs, we will see far less hospitalisations by comparison.

This could indeed prove to be the endemic as Omicron wipes out Delta.

Perhaps we need NYE to be postponed until Jan 31st!!

[normal rules]

The most recent common ancestor of all coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE, although some models place the common ancestor as far back as 55 million years or more, implying long term coevolution with bat and avian species.
We,ve let it infect us now.
It’s not going anywhere anytime yet.
We may, if we are lucky, suppress it like we have smallpox and rabies.
We may learn to live with it.
Hopefully.

[SydneyRover]

400 seems to be a funny number a hospital down Syds way has told 400 they tested negative  when they were positive. I suppose 50/50 whether the test outcome is correct isn't a bad guess.
  Is St Vincent's your local hospital Syd?

No, not my hospital, but an absolute cock up, earlier it was test, test get f**k'n tested and now because thousands want to travel and need proof of a neg test, it's chaos and don't get tested unless you got the virus???, I have had one test months ago, neg.

[River Don]

The most recent common ancestor of all coronaviruses is estimated to have existed as recently as 8000 BCE, although some models place the common ancestor as far back as 55 million years or more, implying long term coevolution with bat and avian species.
We,ve let it infect us now.
It’s not going anywhere anytime yet.
We may, if we are lucky, suppress it like we have smallpox and rabies.
We may learn to live with it.
Hopefully.

I believe many versions of what we know of as the common cold are corona viruses. I know experts can't be trusted nowadays but one of these knowitalls was reported in the Guardian suggesting the ultimate fate of CV19 would be to become another mild infection, lost amongst the other viruses we write off as a cold.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Good to see the case rates now dropping in Central London.

Lambeth, reported as the worst effected and least protected, now showing a drop in 7 day average.

Hospitakisations there have gone up significantly, but only a quarter of the peak seen last January.

Also note case rates in Scotland now waning too.

Hopefully, as it spreads rapidly to areas with better protected with jabs, we will see far less hospitalisations by comparison.

This could indeed prove to be the endemic as Omicron wipes out Delta.

Perhaps we need NYE to be postponed until Jan 31st!!

DBR. Nothing personal here but you are making a pretty fundamental error here in forgetting about the lag effect AND quoting wrong numbers.

People don't end up in hospital the moment they catch COVID. There's typically a 3-4 week delay between cases peaking and total numbers in hospital peaking.

In Lambeth, it looks like the positive cases peaked on 17 Dec. But the latest data on total COVID cases in hospital from the relevant NHS trust (South London and Maudsley) is only from 18 Dec. That said there were 80 cases in that trust. That compares with the peak of 120 in early January. (I don't know where you got that figure of 1/4 of the Jan peak from, but it's plain wrong). And there's likely 2-3 weeks minimum over which the current numbers are going to increase.

As you suggest, Lambeth ought to be a worst case because of low vaccination rates. But it is certainly very likely that they will see hospital cases there way higher than the previous peak. So I'm struggling to see much to cheer about in the Labeth data at the moment.

[Nudga]

Good to see you're OK now BST after coming down with it. Hope it didn't ruin your Christmas?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I got a 5g phone Nudga. Not sure how I survived.

[Filo]

I got a 5g phone Nudga. Not sure how I survived.

Bill Gates would have remotely de activated the virus through your micr chip

[Nudga]

Dad jokes are the best aren't they.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Not really. But better than dead jokes.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Good to see the case rates now dropping in Central London.

Lambeth, reported as the worst effected and least protected, now showing a drop in 7 day average.

Hospitakisations there have gone up significantly, but only a quarter of the peak seen last January.

Also note case rates in Scotland now waning too.

Hopefully, as it spreads rapidly to areas with better protected with jabs, we will see far less hospitalisations by comparison.

This could indeed prove to be the endemic as Omicron wipes out Delta.

Perhaps we need NYE to be postponed until Jan 31st!!

DBR. Nothing personal here but you are making a pretty fundamental error here in forgetting about the lag effect AND quoting wrong numbers.

People don't end up in hospital the moment they catch COVID. There's typically a 3-4 week delay between cases peaking and total numbers in hospital peaking.

In Lambeth, it looks like the positive cases peaked on 17 Dec. But the latest data on total COVID cases in hospital from the relevant NHS trust (South London and Maudsley) is only from 18 Dec. That said there were 80 cases in that trust. That compares with the peak of 120 in early January. (I don't know where you got that figure of 1/4 of the Jan peak from, but it's plain wrong). And there's likely 2-3 weeks minimum over which the current numbers are going to increase.

As you suggest, Lambeth ought to be a worst case because of low vaccination rates. But it is certainly very likely that they will see hospital cases there way higher than the previous peak. So I'm struggling to see much to cheer about in the Labeth data at the moment.

No, I'm not forgetting the lag. As I've said, the hospitalisations have gone up significantly. Yes, they will still rise but at the peak last January in Guys and St Thomas' hospital reached 452 I think.

So as I said, at the mo it's around a 1/4 of that. Even if it reaches half of that, which I doubt, it indicates the hospitalisation rates in areas where there is better vaccination rates should be far lower.

Another indicator, given the increase in hospitalisations is the reduction of those needing mechanical ventilation.

The studies from SA have found Omicron is far quicker at infecting, but also far quicker to subside.

Incidentally. In South Africa they have just introduced new protocols.

Track and trace to be stopped immediately.
Only test if symptomatic.
No testing for contacts if asymptomatic.
No isolation for contacts if asymptomatic.

Basically, they have freed everyone from having to isolate from work/life as long as there are no symptoms.

Glad to hear your OK btw!

[BillyStubbsTears]

DBR.
I'm fine ta. I haven't had COVID.

If you're quoting figures for the whole of London, you've got the wrong ones I'm afraid. The highest number of COVID cases in London hospitals in January was 7900. As of today the figure is over 3000 and rising very rapidly - 3-400 per day.

Given that on the last figures we had before Xmas, cases in London were still rising, it seems sensible to assume that hospital cases will continue to rise until at least the middle of next month. It seems, on balance, more likely than not that they will at least get close to the previous peak. And extremely likely that they'll go though 50% of that peak by the end of the week.

I really do want this to be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, but I'm not seeing that at the moment.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

DBR.
I'm fine ta. I haven't had COVID.

If you're quoting figures for the whole of London, you've got the wrong ones I'm afraid. The highest number of COVID cases in London hospitals in January was 7900. As of today the figure is over 3000 and rising very rapidly - 3-400 per day.

Given that on the last figures we had before Xmas, cases in London were still rising, it seems sensible to assume that hospital cases will continue to rise until at least the middle of next month. It seems, on balance, more likely than not that they will at least get close to the previous peak. And extremely likely that they'll go though 50% of that peak by the end of the week.

I really do want this to be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, but I'm not seeing that at the moment.

Just quoting from Guys & St Thomas' hospital, not the whole of London.

[BillyStubbsTears]

But that's the problem. If you look at tiny sub-samples, you can find whatever you want.

You find an optimistic result at Guy's.  But there's much less promising data at South London & Maudsley.

Makes much more sense to  look at London as a whole as it was the first area to be hit by Omicron. And there, COVID cases in hospital are already nearly half what they were at the previous peak. And rising.

Then look at the UK as a whole as it covers all of us. This is going to be f**king hard again. No magic bullet to give us an easy win.

[Nudga]

Not really. But better than dead jokes.

Are you just being a Kitson for the sake of it then?

[River Don]

The Telegraph are running this:

Just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients was caused by people admitted to hospital because of the virus, figures suggest.

The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week.

But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.


I don't know how accurate this is but. We are in the midst of a tidal wave of infections, and we know many of them mild and asymtomiatic.

If many of these cases are mild and hospital stays are much shorter than last year, then the pressures on the NHS may be different now. Things will become clearer in time.

[Bentley Bullet]

Shouldn't optimistic posts be in the football section?

[Ldr]

The Telegraph are running this:

Just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients was caused by people admitted to hospital because of the virus, figures suggest.

The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week.

But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.


I don't know how accurate this is but. We are in the midst of a tidal wave of infections, and we know many of them mild and asymtomiatic.

If many of these cases are mild and hospital stays are much shorter than last year, then the pressures on the NHS may be different now. Things will become clearer in time.

That would tally with what I am seeing in local data

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Ultimately we may get to the point soon where we can say it's no worse than flu, here's hoping.

[Axholme Lion]

The gloom mongers will be gutted. Mao Tse Drakeford and Wee Jimmy have shown themselves to be what they are, tin pot dictators.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That'll be really good news if so RD.

[scawsby steve]

DBR.
I'm fine ta. I haven't had COVID.

If you're quoting figures for the whole of London, you've got the wrong ones I'm afraid. The highest number of COVID cases in London hospitals in January was 7900. As of today the figure is over 3000 and rising very rapidly - 3-400 per day.

Given that on the last figures we had before Xmas, cases in London were still rising, it seems sensible to assume that hospital cases will continue to rise until at least the middle of next month. It seems, on balance, more likely than not that they will at least get close to the previous peak. And extremely likely that they'll go though 50% of that peak by the end of the week.

I really do want this to be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, but I'm not seeing that at the moment.

Surely it must be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, because that's round about the time that the scientists told us that the vaccines were "the route to freedom".

Surely they can't have been wrong?

[Nudga]

DBR.
I'm fine ta. I haven't had COVID.

If you're quoting figures for the whole of London, you've got the wrong ones I'm afraid. The highest number of COVID cases in London hospitals in January was 7900. As of today the figure is over 3000 and rising very rapidly - 3-400 per day.

Given that on the last figures we had before Xmas, cases in London were still rising, it seems sensible to assume that hospital cases will continue to rise until at least the middle of next month. It seems, on balance, more likely than not that they will at least get close to the previous peak. And extremely likely that they'll go though 50% of that peak by the end of the week.

I really do want this to be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, but I'm not seeing that at the moment.

Surely it must be less of a problem than we had 12 months ago, because that's round about the time that the scientists told us that the vaccines were "the route to freedom".

Surely they can't have been wrong?

It was 15 million jabs to freedom. They've ordered another 100 odd million more vials of hope

[Nudga]

A mate of mine and his wife and daughter been badly over Christmas with covaids. Non of them have had the vaccine.
Wife back at work today and daughter brushed it off quickly. My mate has still got a banging head and is still tired.
Their son hasn't been touched by it.
Russian roulette eh. f**k those anti vaxxers taking up hospital beds.

[SydneyRover]

and taking up spots in the cemetery I guess.

[Nudga]

Not these ones

[SydneyRover]

obviously, as said in your comment Nudga

[SydneyRover]

but definitely these

''Between 2 January and 24 September 2021, the age-adjusted risk of deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19) was 32 times greater in unvaccinated people than in fully vaccinated individuals''

not all antivaxxers.

[Nudga]

Fool me once.

https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

[DonnyBazR0ver]

The Telegraph are running this:

Just one fifth of the weekly rise in Covid inpatients was caused by people admitted to hospital because of the virus, figures suggest.

The most up-to-date NHS data show that on December 21, there were 6,245 beds occupied by coronavirus patients in English hospitals - an increase of 259 from the previous week.

But within that increase, just 45 patients were admitted because of the virus, with the remaining 214 in hospital for other conditions but having also tested positive - so called “incidental Covid” admissions.


I don't know how accurate this is but. We are in the midst of a tidal wave of infections, and we know many of them mild and asymtomiatic.

If many of these cases are mild and hospital stays are much shorter than last year, then the pressures on the NHS may be different now. Things will become clearer in time.

Also appears based on the same data, the 20% of the hospital admissions directly due to covid are now on average spending 3 days or less in hospital.

Just heard a professor comment that Omicron is likely to remain the dominant coid variant for some considerable time due to its ability to out compete the more dangerous strains. Again, this supports the prognosis that Omicron is the new 'Common Cold'.