Coronavirus

[SydneyRover]

This is an explanation from the worldometer

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

A study by disease modelers at the University of Texas at Austin states that "Given the low testing rates throughout the country, we assume that 1 in 10 cases are tested and reported. If a county has detected only 1 case of COVID-19, there is a 51%
chance that there is already a growing outbreak underway" [source]
  [source]

[SydneyRover]

A big problem for those that suffer the virus and for many countries will be the recovery process, it's going to long and painful for individuals and economies alike as people will be in rehab for quite a while.

''Learning to breathe again: the long road to recovery from Covid-19

From muscle wastage to PTSD, patients discharged from critical care face tough convalescence''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/the-road-to-recovery-for-covid-19-patients

[SydneyRover]

I missed this bit of good news from Italy 4/4 below which was included in the source notes worldometer.

7/4
3039 new cases and 604 new deaths in Italy

4/4
4805 new cases and 681 new deaths in Italy. The number of patients hospitalized in intensive care has declined for the first time since the beginning of the epidemic in Italy

The target of bringing down the reproductive number (R0) to 1 has been reached. Now the goal is to bring it below 1. Earlier in the epidemic, it was as high as 3. This value represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus. An epidemic with a reproductive number below 1 will gradually disappear

[drfchound]

There appears to be in lots of countries those that have taken the disease to be just like the flu and then a lack of leadership in some countries such as Australia where the PM was telling everyone that he was going to watch his football team on the weekend despite medical advice that we should be staying home to those that think none of the safeguards apply to them. Things are changing thankfully

Haven’t the football matches been cancelled in Australia then.

[GazLaz]

There appears to be in lots of countries those that have taken the disease to be just like the flu and then a lack of leadership in some countries such as Australia where the PM was telling everyone that he was going to watch his football team on the weekend despite medical advice that we should be staying home to those that think none of the safeguards apply to them. Things are changing thankfully

Haven’t the football matches been cancelled in Australia then.

They were stopped a couple of weeks ago.

[SydneyRover]

There appears to be in lots of countries those that have taken the disease to be just like the flu and then a lack of leadership in some countries such as Australia where the PM was telling everyone that he was going to watch his football team on the weekend despite medical advice that we should be staying home to those that think none of the safeguards apply to them. Things are changing thankfully

This was 25 days ago the PM told everyone he was going to the football and since we have had a problem with idiots not taking the lockdown seriously, there a problem when people in authority set stupid examples hound.






Haven’t the football matches been cancelled in Australia then.

[Iberian Red]

Spanish deaths fall for fourth consecutive day

Don't read too much into those figures as the national average has been swayed by Madrid,Barcelona and a hotspot in the north.
The rest of the country is playing catch up,as it is still nowhere near peaking in heavily populated areas such as Valencia,Sevilla,Zaragoza,Malaga etc. Those cities are still waiting for the peak,and tha has the possibility to change the figures drastically. I know of 2 deaths and a large increase in the last few days where I am,the shit still hasnt hit the fan in very large parts of the country.

To go back to this post,yesterday evening it was announced by the authorities that hundreds perhaps more deaths haven't been registered as testing wasn't available. So the figures are somewhat misleading. It's still very grim here.Most people live in flats,so lifts are such a breeding ground for the virus. On Monday I saw the awful reality of this. About 50metres up the street,a corpse was having to be lowered out of a window,as emergency workers are doing everything they can( understandably) to avoid the use of lifts.

[SydneyRover]

It's hard to know what to say it's a shocking visual IR

[BillyStubbsTears]

Spanish deaths fall for fourth consecutive day

Don't read too much into those figures as the national average has been swayed by Madrid,Barcelona and a hotspot in the north.
The rest of the country is playing catch up,as it is still nowhere near peaking in heavily populated areas such as Valencia,Sevilla,Zaragoza,Malaga etc. Those cities are still waiting for the peak,and tha has the possibility to change the figures drastically. I know of 2 deaths and a large increase in the last few days where I am,the shit still hasnt hit the fan in very large parts of the country.

To go back to this post,yesterday evening it was announced by the authorities that hundreds perhaps more deaths haven't been registered as testing wasn't available. So the figures are somewhat misleading. It's still very grim here.Most people live in flats,so lifts are such a breeding ground for the virus. On Monday I saw the awful reality of this. About 50metres up the street,a corpse was having to be lowered out of a window,as emergency workers are doing everything they can( understandably) to avoid the use of lifts.

Good God. That image brings it home.

[ian1980]

Figures for the last 24hrs:

828 in England (758 yesterday)
70 in Scotland (74 yesterday)
33 in Wales (19 yesterday)
5 in Northern Ireland (3 yesterday)

[BillyStubbsTears]

That improvement in our doubling time in the graph at the top of this page is now clearly due to the artificially low numbers reported over the weekend. I suspect today's numbers will put us back to looking something like the Spain trend or perhaps a bit worse, which is where we looked like heading before the weekend.

[ian1980]

Looks like it.

I was expecting/hoping today’s figure would be lower than yesterday, the same at the worse, but a jump of 70 is rather disappointing and worrying

[BillyStubbsTears]

I think we just have to be realistic.

Given our national policy, who h has been to have a lockdown a bit later than and a bit less severe than other European countries we should expect to have a bit worse outcome.

I'd say we might get away with 15-20k deaths in this first wave with a little luck. Probably more likely to be 25-30k, but I hope I'm wrong.

[roversdude]

Please excuse my ignorance but have all deaths actually been confirmed by laboratory tests that covid is cause of death?

[adamtherover]

I think we just have to be realistic.

Given our national policy, who h has been to have a lockdown a bit later than and a bit less severe than other European countries we should expect to have a bit worse outcome.

I'd say we might get away with 15-20k deaths in this first wave with a little luck. Probably more likely to be 25-30k, but I hope I'm wrong.

excuse my ignorance. But if weve got 7k deaths now, and currently showing sod all sign of slowing, is there anything anyone can do do stop 25 to 30k deaths, or are they as good as set in stone maybe considering the amount of folk that might actually be infected but dont show signs yet?
Or would the government implementing much stronger lockdown protocols stop these future big numbers?

[Ldr]

Dont know if this has been picked up on yet, another logistical problem to do with ventilation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52187826

[BillyStubbsTears]

Adam.

Look at the graph at the top of this page. The key sign that we are getting a hold is when the time for the deaths to double goes up. The deaths will still be increasing rapidly at that time, but it's the first step towards slowing. China, Italy and Spain show that, once the doubling time gets up to 8-10 days, the new number of deaths per day finally starts to reduce.

Thing is, at the moment it is hard to say which side of the Italy and Spain trend we are going to fall. The rise on our trace is deceptive - it's due to the low reported numbers on Sun-Mon. The key thing now is how the numbers go up between now and Saturday. If they go well above 1000, we are heading towards 25-30k total.

[adamtherover]

Chuffin hell, they seemed to be very slow increase for quite a while, but the last week or so, it appeared to go up to the next hundred almost on a daily basis..   :-(

[BillyStubbsTears]

Adam

That's what I've been saying for weeks about exponential growth.

Exponential growth means the numbers double in a fixed amount of time. In this case, about 3.5 days in the early stages.

So, in the early days, the numbers would go up from 1 to 4 in a week. It was back then that people were saying the while thing was being over rated because the numbers are so small.

But it's the doubling that is the danger.
Without stopping that, that 4 becomes 16 the next week.

Again, who cares.

Except after a month it is 500.

After a month and a half it is 8000.

After two months it is 150,000.

That's why we had to lockdown. And the sign of success of the lockdown is when the doubling time starts to get longer and longer.

[BillyStubbsTears]

We've actually had reported deaths doubling a bit faster than every 3.5 days.
5 Mar first death.
2 weeks later 144
1 month 5000

After the first few deaths, we were doubling about every three days. If that kept on, we'd have about 150,000 dead in about 10 days time. Which was kind of the original plan before it dawned on Govt that folk might be a little bit miffed at seeing corpses piled up in school gyms.

As it is, I think we are just about starting to stop that growth.

But just think about the folk who were moaning about snowflakes when this all first started. Folk who didn't have a clue how terrifying exponential growth is. Folk like the President of America for example, who is presiding over an absolute catastrophe because he didn't that this seriously up to about 2-3 weeks ago and so has lost the chance to get off the rapid doubling trend early on.

[wilts rover]

I take it people have seen the Reuters Special Report - worth a read if you haven't

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci-idUSKBN21P1VF

[selby]

Doncaster has 168 cases plus 24 on the day  Rotherham 240 plus 17 sheffield  940 plus 57  Barnsley  238 plus 22 
                  Total 1586 new  cases 120.   7.56% rise

    In the greater London Boroughs there are 14,409 total cases  a rise of 1012 on the day  7.02%

[Nudga]

Please excuse my ignorance but have all deaths actually been confirmed by laboratory tests that covid is cause of death?

No, they can attribute most deaths to it, I'll try and find the reclassification of reports of death tomorrow.

This is why I said a few days ago that the figures are well scewed.

[Copps is Magic]

All deaths released by the ministry of health are deaths where someone has had a positive test and subsequently died (in hospital).

The ONS figures are people who have died with covid-19 symptoms (confirmed or suspected) in and outside of hospital.

Its been explained several times on this thread now.

[BillyStubbsTears]

On exponential growth.

The Worldometer site has just posted that we have gone through 1.5 million confined cases globally. It's 8 April.

Without checking, on which day do you think we went through 1 million cases?

[Sprotyrover]

On exponential growth.

The Worldometer site has just posted that we have gone through 1.5 million confined cases globally. It's 8 April.

Without checking, on which day do you think we went through 1 million cases?

I wager 27th March.

[Bristol Red Rover]

On exponential growth.

The Worldometer site has just posted that we have gone through 1.5 million confined cases globally. It's 8 April.

Without checking, on which day do you think we went through 1 million cases?

4th April?

[roversdude]

Thanks guys

[adamtherover]

2nd april was the million mark passed, 6 days later to get to 1.5 mill.  According to worldometer site.

[selby]

   The label with coronavirus is used to explain deaths with people who also have other conditions such as heart or diabetes etc.  the label of coronavirus  is for deaths that are considered happened to otherwise healthy patients.
  That was the explanation of someone on TV when asked about the difference of  "with and of " on death certificates.