Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:47:59 pm

Login with username, password and session length

Links


FSA logo

Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860515 times)

0 Members and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

ravenrover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 9511
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #30 on February 13, 2020, 12:42:54 pm by ravenrover »
Bearing in mind when I worked in China in the early 2000's the ordinary people I spoke to denied there had been a revolution when Mao came to power and that Tiananman didn't happen mmmm!



(want to hide these ads? Join the VSC today!)

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #31 on February 13, 2020, 04:38:31 pm by River Don »
It seems to be that earlier this week they started compiling the figures differently.

They stopped including people with symptoms of pneumonia, fever and so on IF they didn't test positive for Corvid 19. Things like this to massage the figures down, and send a message to the markets that China was going back to work and they had it all under control.

I don't think this would have been a decision taken by a couple of people locally in Hubei.

Now the figures based on the original system are out it looks like they are putting in people with a military background, closer to the top of the party in charge. My guess is there will be a further clamp down and quarentining but how long can they keep that up for?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #32 on February 13, 2020, 04:47:18 pm by River Don »
Why the number of coronavirus deaths has suddenly surged in Hubei is more difficult to explain.

Tonight's figures will be interesting.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #33 on February 13, 2020, 06:17:53 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
There HASN'T been a surge today. They've just included cases that previously hadn't been classed as being coronavirus cases. So you shouldn't see this massive increase today as evidence of a huge upward slope on the trend. More a one-time step. (The opposite of  how Thatcher used to deal with unemployment - they couldn't get the actual figures to come down, so they changed the definition of "unemployed" and - whaddya know? - fewer people in the figures.)

But yes, it will be interesting to see what the trend looks like with this new definition of what constitutes a coronavirus case. And there may be more steps as other regions apply the new definition from Hubei.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #34 on February 14, 2020, 09:15:04 am by River Don »
Well last nights figures were interesting. Revised down due to double counting apparently.

The Americans are doubting the politburo are being completely honest. So Christ knows where it's at.

There have been some figures from Tom Tom that suggest traffic levels are between 80-50% lower in Chinese cities than usual. That suggests the Chinese economy is far from getting back on track.

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5382
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #35 on February 20, 2020, 11:35:35 am by Metalmicky »
For those wanting to see up to date figures I found this website...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #36 on February 22, 2020, 10:12:14 am by River Don »
Somehow this story seems to have gone a bit quiet in the media. Perhaps they are getting a bit bored of reporting everyday mor people in China are infected.

The narrative still seems to be it's slowing down. Not to worry it's soon going to be over... Only China has now change the way it calculates official figures no fewer than five times. It looks very much like they are manipulating the figures to look good.

The outbreak in South Korea is most concerning. There the figures are reliable and they show it's going exponential, doubling with each passing day.

News as well that another Chinese doctor has died. This one was just 29.


BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #37 on February 23, 2020, 11:37:41 am by BillyStubbsTears »
RD.

It's not doubling every day in South Korea. It did on Friday. The rate of increase was much lower yesterday.

That's not to say we are not on a knife edge. The spread in South Korea, Iran and Italy is very worrying. The concern is that, because it spreads asymptomatically, once it gets established in a country, you e lost the possibility to confine it.

My gut feeling is that it WILL become a pandemic. And the global deaths will be in the millions or tens of millions of it does. The next few weeks are probably crucial. But I just don't see how it's going to be confined. Closing down entire towns like they are doing in Italy may slow its spread, but I don't see that stopping it entirely.

idler

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 10672
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #38 on February 23, 2020, 12:02:17 pm by idler »
In today's world with vast numbers in transit at any one time, by the time you realise it is here lots of potential carriers have already left the area.
You are always playing catch up.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #39 on February 23, 2020, 06:02:14 pm by River Don »
Four Serie A matches cancelled this weekend.

I have to agree Billy, it's looking like a pandemic. In all seriousness I'm begining to wonder if we will be able to conclude the football season now.

Apparently the Chinese media are saying the Wuhan seafood market is not the source of the virus now... Which begs the question, where did it come from?

Attention turns to the markets opening on Monday now, will they start to reflect the growing concern yet, I wonder?

Dagenham Rover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 6810

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #41 on February 23, 2020, 06:46:08 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Jesus wept. Just read that Express story.

On the same page there's links to stories about:

1) How MH-370 was hijacked and flown exactly along borders to avoid detection, across Nepal which probably doesn't have any radars and then to Kazakhstan.

2) A UFO tracking the International Space Station.

3) Bigfoot seen on traffic CCTV.

4) African locust plague meaning it's the biblical end of the world.

All of a sudden, the Express's editorial policy on how fantastic Brexit will be looks more or less sane by comparison.

Who the f**k reads this shite though?

Not Now Kato

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 3034
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #42 on February 23, 2020, 06:48:09 pm by Not Now Kato »
Jesus wept. Just read that Express story.

On the same page there's links to stories about:

1) How MH-370 was hijacked and flown exactly along borders to avoid detection, across Nepal which probably doesn't have any radars and then to Kazakhstan.

2) A UFO tracking the International Space Station.

3) Bigfoot seen on traffic CCTV.

4) African locust plague meaning it's the biblical end of the world.

All of a sudden, the Express's editorial policy on how fantastic Brexit will be looks more or less sane by comparison.

Who the f**k reads this shite though?

Leave voters?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #43 on February 23, 2020, 07:05:47 pm by River Don »
Long ago my grandad used to pull up at the paper shop in Warmsworth and send me in for a copy of the Express and a packet of Players Navy Cut.

Mind you times were different, the Express was still something like a newspaper and the shop keeper never queried why a kid was regularly buying packets of Players.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #44 on February 23, 2020, 09:46:31 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Some extremely concerning comments coming from epidemiology experts.

Head of the WHO saying the window for being able to control the spread is closing. A UK epidemiology professor saying that the spread in South Korea, Iran and Italy is "extremely concerning" and saying "The tipping point after which our ability to prevent a global pandemic ends seems a lot closer after the past 24 hours."

I sense this is going to be a rough few months.

albie

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 3611
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #45 on February 24, 2020, 12:09:51 am by albie »
Well, if the predictions are correct, then we have a rough ride ahead;
https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

Events like concerts, and football matches, might need to be audience free.
Closed door stadiums, with streaming the only option?

Who will be the first to blink and fess up, with the economic impact to reckon with?

SydneyRover

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 13577
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #46 on February 24, 2020, 10:51:17 am by SydneyRover »
''Drone captures massive queue for masks in South Korea's Daegu city''

I think I'd pass on that one?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51611422

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #47 on February 24, 2020, 11:07:28 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I'm assuming Centreplate have a kiosk handing them out?

Metalmicky

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 5382
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #48 on February 24, 2020, 01:09:15 pm by Metalmicky »
Interesting to see the death rate by age...

COVID-19 - Fatality Rate by AGE:

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE - DEATH RATE*
80+ years old - 14.8%
70-79 years old - 8.0%
60-69 years old - 3.6%
50-59 years old - 1.3%
40-49 years old - 0.4%
30-39 years old - 0.2%
20-29 years old - 0.2%
10-19 years old - 0.2%
0-9 years old - no fatalities

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #49 on February 24, 2020, 06:22:29 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Quote

Attention turns to the markets opening on Monday now, will they start to reflect the growing concern yet, I wonder?

You called that one right RD.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51612520

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #50 on February 25, 2020, 04:22:25 pm by River Don »
Hall Cross academy in Doncaster asked staff and students who attended the school’s half-term ski trip to Italy to “remain at home and self-isolate for 14 days.

I don't suppose the kids will mind too much about a fortnight off school but what are parents and other family members supposed to do?

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #51 on February 25, 2020, 04:59:17 pm by River Don »
The FTSE has just closed at its lowest point for a year, being lead by the biggest fallers in tourism and aviation.

I think it's fairly safe to say this is a pandemic. It's just a matter of how you define if the virus is under control within a country.

I'll bet there is an uncontrolled outbreak in the UK, probably in greater London before the week is out.

rich1471

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 2637
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #52 on February 25, 2020, 05:10:09 pm by rich1471 »
Hall Cross academy in Doncaster asked staff and students who attended the school’s half-term ski trip to Italy to “remain at home and self-isolate for 14 days.

I don't suppose the kids will mind too much about a fortnight off school but what are parents and other family members supposed to do?
Don valley have done the same today as well

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #53 on February 25, 2020, 05:36:35 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Not looking good in Iran. The WHO seem to think the Govt is massively underplaying the true number of cases. And the Govt appears more interested in blaming "conspiracies and fear-mongering of our enemies" than dealing with the problem. They've refused to seal off infected cities.

If the number of cases in Iran really IS only 95 as they claim, the fact that 16 of those have died is a big worry. Because that's a much higher death rate than anywhere else. And if there really ARE only 95 cases in a country of 80 million people, it's a massive coincidence that one of them is the Minister for Health.

BillyStubbsTears

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 36601
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #54 on February 25, 2020, 06:56:30 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Whoa!

Apparently only half of the Chinese workforce is currently at work. That's the scale of the effect that Coronavirus is having.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jonathanjosephs/status/1232330952849969152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1232330952849969152&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-51628990

They are predicting that Chinese GDP growth will only be 3.6% this year. Put that in perspective, it's been between 6.5-15% every year since the early 1990s.

This is going to have massive repercussions for all of our economies.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #55 on February 25, 2020, 07:36:14 pm by River Don »
Audi have stopped production of their new electric vehicle today, due to a lack of parts from China.

Fiat had to halt production at a plant in Croatia and Italy last week due the same problem.

Jaguar announced they could only keep going for a few weeks until they would need more parts from China. They can't sell a vehicle that is only 95% complete.

Everything is so reliant on the Chinese workshop now.

silent majority

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 16750
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #56 on February 25, 2020, 08:04:30 pm by silent majority »
It's impacted massively at my place of work too with large parts of our product offering now out of stock and quoting April before deliveries can begin again.

An internal memo has advised everybody who has been travelling through Italy recently to work from home for the next 14 days.


big fat yorkshire pudding

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 13412
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #57 on February 25, 2020, 10:02:10 pm by big fat yorkshire pudding »
The FTSE has just closed at its lowest point for a year, being lead by the biggest fallers in tourism and aviation.

I think it's fairly safe to say this is a pandemic. It's just a matter of how you define if the virus is under control within a country.

I'll bet there is an uncontrolled outbreak in the UK, probably in greater London before the week is out.

Friday was a good time to sell.  Worth a gamble that it will be short lived so maybe not the worst time to buy.

The concern to me on this is if we know the full truth. Is it significantly worse than existing viruses, flus etc?

Pancho Regan

  • VSC Member
  • Posts: 2524
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #58 on February 26, 2020, 08:45:15 am by Pancho Regan »
Perversely, this could be a blessing in disguise for Boris.

The damage to our economy caused by Brexit could get lost amidst the damage caused by this virus over coming months.

River Don

  • Forum Member
  • Posts: 8190
Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #59 on February 26, 2020, 09:01:32 am by River Don »
Austria, Croatia and Switzerland reported their first cases, all in people who recently traveled to Italy.

The EU refuse to close borders when clearly the freedom of movement is enabling this virus to spread much more rapidly.

I think governments including our own have failed to move quickly enough to prevent international travel. Particularly with China in the first month when the outbreak first became visible.

Even now there are aircraft coming into the country from East Asia.

Nothing is going to stop this thing but we could have done more to slow it down.

 

TinyPortal © 2005-2012