An electric vehicle that looks like the future

[selby]

  I have a Citroen C5 SUV 1.6 diesel car I fill it up with JET super fuel every time yesterday checked the cost per mile filling up of 547 miles on the trip meter I change every time I fill up 12.6p per mile doing motor way and trunk roads etc and in towns.
  At the height of fuel prices it was just over 18p that's using premium price fuel only basically the same pump.
 Add blue engine so clean, not carrying heavy battery dead weight, only done 4k in it since new January and very pleased with it especially on long journeys which I do as much as short ones.
  I reckon about 10p per mile if only using standard diesel so the up front cost of a similar car top of the range electric would allow the purchase of a lot of diesel and does away with fuel anxiety on long journeys especially in winter when I do the longest journeys going to football games.

[ncRover]

  I have a Citroen C5 SUV 1.6 diesel car I fill it up with JET super fuel every time yesterday checked the cost per mile filling up of 547 miles on the trip meter I change every time I fill up 12.6p per mile doing motor way and trunk roads etc and in towns.
  At the height of fuel prices it was just over 18p that's using premium price fuel only basically the same pump.
 Add blue engine so clean, not carrying heavy battery dead weight, only done 4k in it since new January and very pleased with it especially on long journeys which I do as much as short ones.
  I reckon about 10p per mile if only using standard diesel so the up front cost of a similar car top of the range electric would allow the purchase of a lot of diesel and does away with fuel anxiety on long journeys especially in winter when I do the longest journeys going to football games.

Add to that Selby that electric cars range plummets in cold weather.

Would be interesting to see the co2 emissions of buying a used car like this and keeping it for say 5 years compared to the co2 created from the manufacture and charging of a brand new electric car over the same period. Can’t be much in it.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Of course all of that is hugely different if you're a company car driver.

[albie]

ncRover,

The range reduction of an EV in extreme cold is about 20%.
This is more than offset by the increase in range capacity of modern batteries compared to first gen from 2010ish.

The data is contained in this post:
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electric-cars-cold

You can see that the market share of EV is much higher in the nordic countries, where the colder climate does not seem to be an issue.

On your point about carbon emissions, you cannot compare a new electric vehicle with a second hand purchase of a different technology.

The lifetime emission profile is the correct measure, not a snapshot at a particular time.
This data is available online if you are really interested.

[ncRover]

Thanks albie.

You’d think the range would keep improving and that it will get more affordable also as the technology becomes better and more widespread.

I just think the ban on new petrol and diesel from 2030 is premature.

6.6 million UK households don’t have off-street parking.

[normal rules]

Vw are scaling back prod of ev’s.

[selby]

  Report out yesterday by insurance companies on electric cars.
    Relatively minor accidents in electric only and dual fuel cars are causing concern that will be reflected in much higher insurance premiums than for ice cars.
   Minor accidents that  effect the batteries are resulting in the car being scrapped because of the cost of replacement, in the case of Tesla £28k + and lower priced cars £15k+ add other costs such as specialist labour a high percentage are being scrapped even nearly new cars are deemed to be not as valuable as the repair because of the big valuation drop in second hand electric cars.
  Another problem is the time scale of parts supply especially batteries being supplied to do the repairs and the specialist labour needed to do the repairs, you can't just go to the local repair shop.
  Expect insurance premiums to rocket way above combustion and diesel cars.

[albie]

Not sure about that, Selby.
The Sun ran a story on this, but it is not exactly a reliable source is it?

Insurance costs are rising for all drivers, part of the cost of living crisis:
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/jun/25/uk-drivers-complain-as-car-insurance-renewal-costs-rise-up-to-70

Which gives figures for EV drivers in comparison to different types of user;
https://www.which.co.uk/money/insurance/car-insurance/electric-car-insurance-an1rC7l1KnBY

It looks much of a muchness to me...little real difference at the moment, but as always, things might change.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Motors cost more to replace than a horse and cart once, we didn't stick with those did we?

[Colin C No.3]

I can’t hear the buggers coming!

[Superspy]

Well I've finally got my EV (couple of weeks ago) and absolutely love it. Honestly can't see me ever going back to an ICE.

[Ldr]

Just ordered one for my next lease, let me know how you get on Superspy pls

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Well I've finally got my EV (couple of weeks ago) and absolutely love it. Honestly can't see me ever going back to an ICE.

I'm still tempted to have one of each.  But that will depend on how the world lies when I replace these two in 3 years.

With the new full electric we have it's surprisingly quick to charge on the rapid charger and on a recent trip my other half had no issues getting a near full charge in whilst stopping for a quick 30 minute break.

We're not taking it to Scotland on a trip there soon though, there isn't a great infrastructure in the area we're heading hence still liking having both options.

[Bentley Bullet]

My concern is, once fully electric is the only option, how much will the cost of running them be? I recall when Tony Blair told us all to drive diesel vehicles to save the environment the price of diesel went up astronomically.

Bearing in mind that we still had an alternative fuel option then, and presuming we will have no other option when conventional petrol and diesel vehicles are banned in 2030, I reckon there's a fair chance we're gonna be unprecedently ripped off.

[albie]

Some will put solar on the roof, BB.
Getting cheaper every year now.

Once Dogger Bank wind is complete, leccy prices in the UK should begin to fall.
EV is a good way to mop up the excess produced at night by the offshore wind.

[Superspy]

Well I've finally got my EV (couple of weeks ago) and absolutely love it. Honestly can't see me ever going back to an ICE.

I'm still tempted to have one of each.  But that will depend on how the world lies when I replace these two in 3 years.

With the new full electric we have it's surprisingly quick to charge on the rapid charger and on a recent trip my other half had no issues getting a near full charge in whilst stopping for a quick 30 minute break.

We're not taking it to Scotland on a trip there soon though, there isn't a great infrastructure in the area we're heading hence still liking having both options.

Yeah it definitely makes sense to have both options for those who do super long trips fairly often.
In our case we're down to 1 car after having 2 for years, and our average daily drive is usually less than 20 miles - covid was the cause for both of those things as it resulted in us both working from home permanently. Our EV has a range of 300+ miles (real world it likely won't get that but the point is it's a pretty big battery) and for the odd occasion where we might go further I'm happy to build a charging stop into the travel planning. It's a small inconvenience stacked against running 2 cars or hiring an ICE for the 2 or 3 times a year we might go further afield.

We'll be flying from East Midlands this year...60 miles give or take...full charge on the car more than enough to get us there and back so it's all we need.

[ravenrover]

My concern is, once fully electric is the only option, how much will the cost of running them be? I recall when Tony Blair told us all to drive diesel vehicles to save the environment the price of diesel went up astronomically.

Bearing in mind that we still had an alternative fuel option then, and presuming we will have no other option when conventional petrol and diesel vehicles are banned in 2030, I reckon there's a fair chance we're gonna be unprecedently ripped off.

BB they are not banned in 2030 just production of new.
Mindst whichever party is in power I wonder if that will still happen. Green policies seem to be going to the wall on both sides

[selby]

  Another kick between the legs again in a report out today. the top twenty car models with the biggest depreciation in the first twelve months are all electric vehicles.
  With manufacturers pulling manufacturing levels, the problems with repairs, spare parts, trained mechanics, lack of infrastructure,  the initial cost of the vehicles, and now the insurance industry looking to hike the premiums significantly, the problems are now beginning to raise their head.

[drfchound]

Apparently there is talk of upping the road tax on electric cars because their extra weight causes more pothole damage than ICE cars.

[ncRover]

For the record I do think EVs are the future.

But what infrastructure is being proposed to enable the 6.6 million UK households with no off-street parking the capability to charge an EV?

Perhaps it’s not considered at the moment as it’s mostly the middle classes and the well-off with driveways buying EVs. Charging points are also costly to install.

The used market for petrol and diesel will see huge inflation in the build up to the 2030 new car ban. Those in a low socio-economic group will be driving around in older, less efficient and higher polluting cars as a result.

BFYP is correct though that capitalism generally sees new technologies get cheaper as well as better. But the example of the motor vs the horse and cart is the market being left to do its thing. The government didn’t ban the horse and cart. The 2030 new ICE car ban is a huge government intervention and the transition to EVs would happen in a more cost-efficient and practical manner for the consumer otherwise I think.

Are the lithium iron batteries recyclable? Does the earth have a infinite amount of the minerals needed to manufacture these batteries? Is the extraction of them environmentally friendly?

[selby]

  The motor industry is now pushing for the 2030 sales of ice cars to be pushed back as more and more problems arise with the electric cars become apparent.
  Repair shops of EV's are now obliged to park damaged cars at least 15 metres apart because of the risk of fire with damaged batteries which puts up costs and minimises numbers in repair shops.
  Repair costs are now so high that cars with minor damage, but in the battery storage area where costs to replace are high are being scrapped, and a report also adds that an EV has to do 90,000 miles to warrant the additional cost of an ice car, and with the battery life averaging about 60,000 miles and the astronomical cost of renewing the batteries can never be economical and the cost of extracting the materials to manufacture the batteries means that an EV is more polluting than the ICE cars it is supposed to replace.
  What a balls up.

[albie]

I don't know where this barmy idea about manufacturers scaling back is from.
All the big players have a business plan to transition to electric at speed.

Here is the up to date list:
https://www.driving.co.uk/news/new-cars/current-upcoming-pure-electric-car-guide-updated/

Anyone who stands still will be swept away by our old friend exponential growth.
The car makers have got the message.

[selby]

  Just watched an expert start to take wind power apart as it is costing up to eight times the cost of generating power by gas.
  Also he has opened up the debate on reliability of wind power, and opened up the fact that the manufacturers are building the fields and selling them to our pension firms.
  That means you and I will pay the price of repairing clapped out old wind pylons in the future, it is going to be the biggest con ever, fortunately the people who are up to what their plans are have now got a voice on TV. and the public domain, although I expect some on here to put dark glasses and ear plugs in when the truth is exposed.

[albie]

Hound,

Battery development is leading to higher energy density.
This means that you can have greater range from a given weight of battery, or reduce the battery weight for an equal performance.

The sweet spot is likely to be reducing overall weight while extending range to some extent.
Range is not really an issue any more for a modern EV.

The best way of increasing performance is by lightweighting the overall vehicle, but battery technology is moving fast;
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/catl-touts-breakthrough-cold-weather-ev-charging-2023-07-06/

Some of the silly myths posted on here are debunked here;
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/common-misconceptions-about-electric-vehicles/common-misconceptions-about-electric-vehicles

[ncRover]

That’s quite informative Albie, thanks. But you or the government page don’t answer my main question.

“Most drivers charge at home and we expect to see this trend to continue.”

So how do 6.6 million households without a driveway or garage charge an EV?

“There are more than enough global resources for EV batteries to meet the UK and global demands [until at least 2050](Publications - The Faraday Institution. Production will need to scale up in line with the increasing demand for EVs.”

2050 is not very far away. Yes it mentions there could be an increase in a circular economy through recycling but is vague on the details. That being said there is still an abundance of non-renewables after scare-mongering that they would run out so I guess the same applies.

“We expect continued, accelerated deployment of public chargepoints. On average, over 600 new chargers are being added to the UK’s road network each month”

There are 31,000 public charge points currently.  That’s another 7200 each year so 80,000 in place. There are 32 million cars registered in the UK, 250,000 of which are electric.

According to a report by the Local Government Association, by 2030, it is anticipated that there will be between approximately 8 million and 11 million hybrid or electric cars in the UK, if uptake is aligned with the Road to Zero (RTZ) targets.

That’s not many public chargers for that amount of expected EVs to make up for those that can’t charge at home.

Do you also think that the cost of used cars will go up around 2030 and price low income people out of getting a vehicle? Because we’re only 6 years away and the average cost of a new EV is just shy of £50k.

[albie]

ncRover,

Those who do not charge at home will go to a charging station, in just the same way as an ICE driver goes to a filling station.
No-one would expect an ICE driver to have a petrol station at his/her house, would they?

These facilities will grow in proportion to demand, and there are already more charge points in the UK than petrol pumps.

Purchase prices will reduce as volume enters the market, and Chinese imports are pushing that reduction.
The cost will decline on the technology model, like computers did in the past.

Once purchase prices for similar spec models reach parity, the market will tip rapidly.
Manufacturers know this, hence the stampede to refurbish their production facilities to make EV rather than ICE.

Very difficult to say if used car prices will move in 2030, and which way.
What assumption do you make about availability of supplies, and the geopolitical situation?

[selby]

  NCR that average price is the only thing going for the car manufacturers, giving them bigger profits.
  Less parts to the drive train means less costs, most parts supplied by cheap labour in China who have cornered that market, and educated idiots who have fallen for the guff.
  The concept is gathering exposure to the problems after two or three years of  everyone fornicating over it and the golden chalice of it being the in thing to have on the drive for those of a certain disposition of one upmanship and their bank account on the drive.

[normal rules]

  Report out yesterday by insurance companies on electric cars.
    Relatively minor accidents in electric only and dual fuel cars are causing concern that will be reflected in much higher insurance premiums than for ice cars.
   Minor accidents that  effect the batteries are resulting in the car being scrapped because of the cost of replacement, in the case of Tesla £28k + and lower priced cars £15k+ add other costs such as specialist labour a high percentage are being scrapped even nearly new cars are deemed to be not as valuable as the repair because of the big valuation drop in second hand electric cars.
  Another problem is the time scale of parts supply especially batteries being supplied to do the repairs and the specialist labour needed to do the repairs, you can't just go to the local repair shop.
  Expect insurance premiums to rocket way above combustion and diesel cars.

I mentioned this issue previously. If the ICE ban continues and you end up writing off an ICE post 2030, the like for like EV replacement is likely to be much higher in price. Meaning much higher premiums.

[ncRover]

ncRover,

Those who do not charge at home will go to a charging station, in just the same way as an ICE driver goes to a filling station.
No-one would expect an ICE driver to have a petrol station at his/her house, would they?

These facilities will grow in proportion to demand, and there are already more charge points in the UK than petrol pumps.

Purchase prices will reduce as volume enters the market, and Chinese imports are pushing that reduction.
The cost will decline on the technology model, like computers did in the past.

Once purchase prices for similar spec models reach parity, the market will tip rapidly.
Manufacturers know this, hence the stampede to refurbish their production facilities to make EV rather than ICE.

Very difficult to say if used car prices will move in 2030, and which way.
What assumption do you make about availability of supplies, and the geopolitical situation?

No one would expect an ICE driver to take 30 mins *minimum* to fill up their car.

Because it takes 30 times longer I would certainly hope there are more charging points than petrol pumps already.

So based on the projections we’ve got 80,000 public charging points for 8 million or so electric cars. People without the capacity to charge at home will not fancy that.

You can’t beat that practicality or range (530 miles on my 8 year old diesel Skoda that takes a few minutes to fill up) that an ICE car offers at present. And the average person cannot afford a brand new car. For those reasons, it’s common sense to expect used prices to go up.

You make some good points about how the market can progress and I agree. So why the need to ban new ICE cars? Just leave the EV market to takeover naturally if it’s so good.

In terms of geopolitics I’d expect a few economies that aren’t pursuing net zero so quickly will overtake ours like Poland did recently. Because all of this is looking incredibly expensive.

Can you explain the governments reassurance that the wind and solar powered electricity grid will be able to cope with the demands in 2050. It says:

“Smart charging is an important part of this process. Smart charging technologies allow EV charging to take place when demand for electricity is lower. For example, at night or when there is lots of renewable energy on the grid.
This reduces electricity system costs, lowering prices for everyone. The motorist pays less for charging their EV and the electricity powering the EVs is greener.”

So if there’s a few days cloudy days with no wind you can’t charge your car?

[drfchound]

Hound,

Battery development is leading to higher energy density.
This means that you can have greater range from a given weight of battery, or reduce the battery weight for an equal performance.

The sweet spot is likely to be reducing overall weight while extending range to some extent.
Range is not really an issue any more for a modern EV.

The best way of increasing performance is by lightweighting the overall vehicle, but battery technology is moving fast;
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/catl-touts-breakthrough-cold-weather-ev-charging-2023-07-06/

Some of the silly myths posted on here are debunked here;
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/common-misconceptions-about-electric-vehicles/common-misconceptions-about-electric-vehicles

The battery weight/pothole cost thing I mentioned was just a thing I had heard a few days ago, I think it was on a tv news broadcast.
You make some good points of course and some of them may come to fruition.
I’m not so sure that people would want to drive to a charging station, leave the car for 30/60 minutes then go back to pick it up on a regular basis.