Local Elections And Hartlepool

[tyke1962]

The first assessment of Starmer's leadership and the Labour Party is vast approaching .

This isn't about what the Mail or Express say , this isn't about what social media says either or in many cases historically the polls .

This is the only assessment that matters , the dear old electorate .

To say Starmer and Labour have had plenty to go on since 2019 is the mother of all understatements .

The three scenarios are this

1 , Labour claw back some respectability , I wouldn't expect them to gain back what they once enjoyed in one hit but they certainly need to have hit rock bottom in 2019 and the curve needs to show signs of a north direction ( no pun intended ) and they retain Hartlepool .

2 , The Tory vote shows no significant change , they scrape home in Hartlepool by the skin of their teeth , extremely worrying for Labour .

3, The Tories increase their vote share and win the Hartlepool by election , a complete catastrophe .

I suspect all three  scenarios are possible personally .

How do you see this playing out ?

[MachoMadness]

Labour have selected a hardcore FBPE remainer in a 70% leave voting area. Couple that with the despicable behaviour of the last mp and it's too easy for the tories. It'll go badly for them is my guess.

[DonnyOsmond]

To any on the left of center Labour have been a poor opposition to the Tories, they've been given free reign. I'd expect they'll lose a fair number of voters to Green or Lib Dems that they've taken for granted under Starmer.

[selby]

  The Tories have tried to help them though, not selecting someone who is local to fight the seat.

[River Don]

The Northern Independance party have an ex Labour candidate standing.

It's a similar set up to the Yorkshire Party and they could well split the Labour vote in Hartlepool.

[tyke1962]

The Northern Independance party have an ex Labour candidate standing.

It's a similar set up to the Yorkshire Party and they could well split the Labour vote in Hartlepool.

I was reading about this new party the other day RD , Northumbria or something I believe .

Interesting to see what votes they do attract next month if nothing else .

[wilts rover]

Pretty marginal I would have thought - depends where the old Brexit Party vote goes - or if they stay at home.

I think the Scottish Elections are going to be far more interesting - and with longer lasting consequences.

[Donnywolf]

The first assessment of Starmer's leadership and the Labour Party is vast approaching .

2 , The Tory vote shows no significant change , they scrape home in Hartlepool by the skin of their teeth , extremely worrying for Labour .

How do you see this playing out ?

Suspect based on the feature I saw the other day about Redcar the Tory vote was holding up well up there

These were people as old as me - and they obviously wanted Johnny Foreigner out of the UK so they voted Leave AND they thought "Boris" [aka Liar Johnson] was doing well and doing a good job - and had had "bad luck" with the Virus - and they said Starmer hadnt persuaded them back to Labour - far from it

FFS I could not believe them but I man 1 vote - thats democracy I suppose

[tyke1962]

The first assessment of Starmer's leadership and the Labour Party is vast approaching .

2 , The Tory vote shows no significant change , they scrape home in Hartlepool by the skin of their teeth , extremely worrying for Labour .

How do you see this playing out ?

Suspect based on the feature I saw the other day about Redcar the Tory vote was holding up well up there

These were people as old as me - and they obviously wanted Johnny Foreigner out of the UK so they voted Leave AND they thought "Boris" [aka Liar Johnson] was doing well and doing a good job - and had had "bad luck" with the Virus - and they said Starmer hadnt persuaded them back to Labour - far from it

FFS I could not believe them but I man 1 vote - thats democracy I suppose

Is it really credible to blame the electorate ?

This was once an area that Labour had in the bag before a vote was counted for decades and is now a marginal seat .

Surely if Labour had done such a fantastic job nothing would have changed .

Surely if Labour had a better alternative argument the election wouldn't be in doubt either .

These are realities that have to be overcome and that's why these elections are so important in my opinion .

Labour now have to offer the electorate something to attract their vote , the former red wall electorate cannot be taken for granted anymore , they shouldn't have been in the first place .

Simply pointing at the Tories and the electorate isn't going to work .

[albie]

Hartlepool was dumped on by Labour with the selection of disgraced Peter Mandelson a few years ago.

Same thing happening again with the imposition of an unsuitable candidate, so people will be pissed off again.
Northern Independence Party putting up a good candidate in Thelma Walker, pushing Labour from the left.

They don't expect to win, but to pressure Labour into having some bollox with policies and principles suited to the issues a place like Pools faces.

In a way, it is like what Ukip and the Brexit Party did to the Tories.....pushed them to a position beyond their comfort zone.

A vote of up to 5% for NIP will punish Labour on the day...let's see!

[BillyStubbsTears]

I struggle to understand what Labour's internal critics are wanting.

On economics, the current Labour position is very similar to that of Corbyn and McDonnell (which in itself was very similar to that of Milliband and Balls, despite what the Corbynistas would have you believe).

The existential problem Labour now has is not on the economics. They have an economic policy that 50% of the population would support. More than enough to win any election.

The problem is that the Tories have diverted politics into Culture War territory. First with Brexit. Then with the opportunistic response to BLM. Now with the flag idolisation.

And there's the issue for Labour. The 50% that would support Labour on economics is split by a massive gulf on cultural issues. 15-20% old, socially conservative Red Wall post-Industrial working class. 30-35% metropolitan, internationalist, minority-supporting, socially liberal.

The Tories are going to remorselessly try to keep those two groups arguing. The deeply depressing thing is that both those groups seem determined to walk into that trap. Every nod Starmer gives to the socially conservative Labour voters gets the socially liberal wing screaming "treachery" or even worse, "Blairite". And vice versa.

Needs some f**king cool heads in the Labour party to realise that both sides of the party lose if both sides insist on having things only on their terms.

[tyke1962]

I struggle to understand what Labour's internal critics are wanting.

On economics, the current Labour position is very similar to that of Corbyn and McDonnell (which in itself was very similar to that of Milliband and Balls, despite what the Corbynistas would have you believe).

The existential problem Labour now has is not on the economics. They have an economic policy that 50% of the population would support. More than enough to win any election.

The problem is that the Tories have diverted politics into Culture War territory. First with Brexit. Then with the opportunistic response to BLM. Now with the flag idolisation.

And there's the issue for Labour. The 50% that would support Labour on economics is split by a massive gulf on cultural issues. 15-20% old, socially conservative Red Wall post-Industrial working class. 30-35% metropolitan, internationalist, minority-supporting, socially liberal.

The Tories are going to remorselessly try to keep those two groups arguing. The deeply depressing thing is that both those groups seem determined to walk into that trap. Every nod Starmer gives to the socially conservative Labour voters gets the socially liberal wing screaming "treachery" or even worse, "Blairite". And vice versa.

Needs some f**king cool heads in the Labour party to realise that both sides of the party lose if both sides insist on having things only on their terms.

I wouldn't disagree for one minute the Tories don't stoke the culture war fire .

However there's a real one at play in Batley right now without any stoking getting done by the Tory Party .

The issue resides in a Labour held seat .

I try to look at these things with an open mind , on one hand we don't have any blasphemy laws in England on the other the portrayal of the prophet Muhammad in cartoon or any other form is considered blasphemy within the Muslim community with pretty serious consequences for those who do .

It's a classic culture war issue of its own making .

There's absolutely no way that a teacher should have to go in to hiding in this country when they are no blasphemy laws .

I'm not saying the prophet Muhammad should be deliberately disrespected either .

Until these kind of issues aren't an issue the culture wars won't go away .

Labour have to come out on the right side of these issues because these are issues involving real mixed communities living real lives .

They aren't all dreamt up by Tory Party strategists and ignored by the  nothing to see here metropolitan  branch of the Labour Party .

[SydneyRover]

How do you make issues such as this a non-issue Tyke?

[SydneyRover]

I'd like to add that my comment above was not just a flippant reply but that I agree with you that it needs serious thought.

Labour needs to have a stronger representation in the media so they can counter the rediculous positions that the express, tele, mail and similar put up, it can't be always putting forward facts and logical arguments such as in the guardian because as we know there is a healthy majority that don't want to know. The mirror balances some of the dribble coming from the sun but labor need to get smarter.

It can't be education unless private schools don't teach humanities, history nor ethics unless those that attend haven't got the capacity or desire to learn. Why do they churn out such selfish born to rule bozos?

[SydneyRover]

''Britain’s top jobs still in hands of private school elite, study finds''

''‘Scandalous’ figures show extent of domination in politics, media and business'' (2019)

It's this that begets the cronyism that is rife in the government, high office, judiciary and business.

''In the media, 43% of the 100 most influential news editors and broadcasters, and 44% of newspaper columnists went to fee-paying schools; 33% of those went to both private school and either Oxford or Cambridge. In the arts, 44% of top actors and 30% of pop stars went to independent schools''

''In stark contrast, in the world of football, just 5% of male international stars went to private school, the only area where the privately educated are underrepresented. In the world of rugby, meanwhile, 37% of international players were privately educated, and in cricket 43% of the England team went to independent schools''

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jun/25/britains-top-jobs-still-in-hands-of-private-school-elite-study-finds

''Elitism in Britain - breakdown by profession (2014)
A government report has likened elitism in Britain to “social engineering”. Find out the profession with the highest proportion of its members educated at private school''

https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/aug/28/elitism-in-britain-breakdown-by-profession

I look forward to the levelling up, so far it doesn't look good. These articles are from the recent past and there is no reason to believe that anything has changed.

[River Don]

How do you make issues such as this a non-issue Tyke?

This is an issue that goes way beyond British politics, there is a significant section of Muslim society struggling to come to terms with the existence of secular societies.

I keep hearing voices saying there needs to be some sort of reformation but whether that can happen, I don't know.

[wilts rover]

I struggle to understand what Labour's internal critics are wanting.

On economics, the current Labour position is very similar to that of Corbyn and McDonnell (which in itself was very similar to that of Milliband and Balls, despite what the Corbynistas would have you believe).

The existential problem Labour now has is not on the economics. They have an economic policy that 50% of the population would support. More than enough to win any election.

The problem is that the Tories have diverted politics into Culture War territory. First with Brexit. Then with the opportunistic response to BLM. Now with the flag idolisation.

And there's the issue for Labour. The 50% that would support Labour on economics is split by a massive gulf on cultural issues. 15-20% old, socially conservative Red Wall post-Industrial working class. 30-35% metropolitan, internationalist, minority-supporting, socially liberal.

The Tories are going to remorselessly try to keep those two groups arguing. The deeply depressing thing is that both those groups seem determined to walk into that trap. Every nod Starmer gives to the socially conservative Labour voters gets the socially liberal wing screaming "treachery" or even worse, "Blairite". And vice versa.

Needs some f**king cool heads in the Labour party to realise that both sides of the party lose if both sides insist on having things only on their terms.

I wouldn't disagree for one minute the Tories don't stoke the culture war fire .

However there's a real one at play in Batley right now without any stoking getting done by the Tory Party .

The issue resides in a Labour held seat .

I try to look at these things with an open mind , on one hand we don't have any blasphemy laws in England on the other the portrayal of the prophet Muhammad in cartoon or any other form is considered blasphemy within the Muslim community with pretty serious consequences for those who do .

It's a classic culture war issue of its own making .

There's absolutely no way that a teacher should have to go in to hiding in this country when they are no blasphemy laws .

I'm not saying the prophet Muhammad should be deliberately disrespected either .

Until these kind of issues aren't an issue the culture wars won't go away .

Labour have to come out on the right side of these issues because these are issues involving real mixed communities living real lives .

They aren't all dreamt up by Tory Party strategists and ignored by the  nothing to see here metropolitan  branch of the Labour Party .

What on earth has Batley Grammar School got to do with the Labour Party - or any politician of any party in Batley? They are not a council run school - they are an independent academy?

On their website it states they 'aim to identify, encourage and develop the talents and qualities of each pupil to their full potential and help to prepare them for adult life as confident, independent and respectful members of a caring multicultural society.' It's up to them to explain to their board and parents how using teaching materials which are offensive to part of their school community is going to achieve this.

They are however teaching to a Tory based curriculum and have been for the past 11 years. If you have been following the Race Report controversy you will have seen what this means. They want schools to teach 'the truth' about modern Britain - as this has proved successful in Russia! Lets teach history like they do in Russia! (Dominic Cummings of course spent several years in Russia and Carrie Symonds was a senior figure in Conservative Friends of Russia).

Now Russia would not be my model of choice to teach about modern, free, open, muti-ethnic democracies. But if you wished to create a corrupt, cronyist, one party state in power for the sake of its multi-billionaires - then they would be near the top of the list.

This is what the culture war actually seeks to 'win'. This is what Brexit was about.

Vote wisely.

[SydneyRover]

How do you make issues such as this a non-issue Tyke?

This is an issue that goes way beyond British politics, there is a significant section of Muslim society struggling to come to terms with the existence of secular societies.

I keep hearing voices saying there needs to be some sort of reformation but whether that can happen, I don't know.

We need to look at how long it's taken to emerge from the shadows of christian religions to get an idea how long this may take RD.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke
You make my point for me.

If Labour fights the next election on Culture War and Identity themes, they are f**ked. You have to understand that your insistence on playing by the Culture War rules is basically giving the future to the Right.

Because (at the risk of repeating what should be bleeding obvious) there aren't enough voters in the country to put the socially conservative, economically radical Govt that you want in power.

It's as simple as that.

So you have a choice.

You can prioritize the economics, which requires a Labour Govt, which requires  you to grit your teeth and stop banging on about Culture War issues.

Or you can prioritize Culture War issues. In which case, you can forget about ever seeing another left wing Govt in your lifetime.

(NB. Exactly the same argument applies to people on the Left who are socially liberal.)

That is why Starmer desperately wants to neuter the Culture War theme and concentrate on economics.

And meanwhile there is a fascinating example going on over the Atlantic. Biden was castigated by both the socially liberal and socially conservative wings of the Democrat party. And he was bated by Trump who tried to beat him on Culture War issues. But he stuck to a theme that more or less ignored Identity Politics and talked about the need for economic recovery.

And look what he has done. He's started the most enormous Govt spending package since WWII. $1.9trn. Nearly 10% of GDP. It's a massive left wing stimulus package, massively aimed at the poorest half of society.

It's possible to have that sort of Govt. But not if you prioritise the Culture War.

[SydneyRover]

''Warning over photo ID law change for UK-wide and English elections
Campaigners say move will hit ethnic minority and working-class communities''

Now why would they want to go and do that, I thought the working class and ethnic minorities were their new friends?

''There was only one conviction for “personation” fraud, which voter ID is meant to prevent, in the UK in 2019.

Approximately 11 million electors (24% of the electorate) hold neither a passport nor a photographic driving licence, the photo ID expected to be mandated under the legislation''

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/mar/09/warning-over-photo-id-law-change-for-uk-wide-and-english-elections

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Sydney I see the cons but I find it baffling I could walk in to any polling station knowing someone's name and address and say I'm them and nobody would know.

[SydneyRover]

There is zero evidence that this move is required, if there was you would think there would have been more than one prosecution? It 's very similar to what the republicans do in the US which has shown to disenfranchise poor and minority voters.

[DonnyOsmond]

Hartlepool, constituency voting intention:

CON: 49% (+20)
LAB: 42% (+4)
NIP: 2% (+2)
LDEM: 1% (-3)
REFUK: 1% (-25)
GRN: 1% (+1)

via @Survation

[DonnyOsmond]

Will be interesting how NIP do. The idea of what they want in the grand scheme of things isn't feasible but what they can do is push Labour, with them being a left wing party. Seems as though they'll be another voice against FPTP too.

[idler]

I was told that in my area of Bradford 75% of all votes cast were postal votes.
Of the votes cast 60% of the electorate with postal votes use them whereas only 10% of those without a postal vote bother to vote on the day.  That is a massive shock to me and a damning view of many voters not caring enough.

[SydneyRover]

Apathy is number 1 on the ticket Idler. It's troubling that there are that many for one reason or another don't vote, maybe everyone should automatically get a postal vote delivered with encouragement to use it.

[Ldr]

Given some of the things heard locally about postal voting in South Shields I wouldn't trust postal voting at all

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke
You make my point for me.

If Labour fights the next election on Culture War and Identity themes, they are f**ked. You have to understand that your insistence on playing by the Culture War rules is basically giving the future to the Right.

Because (at the risk of repeating what should be bleeding obvious) there aren't enough voters in the country to put the socially conservative, economically radical Govt that you want in power.

It's as simple as that.

So you have a choice.

You can prioritize the economics, which requires a Labour Govt, which requires  you to grit your teeth and stop banging on about Culture War issues.

Or you can prioritize Culture War issues. In which case, you can forget about ever seeing another left wing Govt in your lifetime.

(NB. Exactly the same argument applies to people on the Left who are socially liberal.)

That is why Starmer desperately wants to neuter the Culture War theme and concentrate on economics.

And meanwhile there is a fascinating example going on over the Atlantic. Biden was castigated by both the socially liberal and socially conservative wings of the Democrat party. And he was bated by Trump who tried to beat him on Culture War issues. But he stuck to a theme that more or less ignored Identity Politics and talked about the need for economic recovery.

And look what he has done. He's started the most enormous Govt spending package since WWII. $1.9trn. Nearly 10% of GDP. It's a massive left wing stimulus package, massively aimed at the poorest half of society.

It's possible to have that sort of Govt. But not if you prioritise the Culture War.

As I was saying.
https://twitter.com/jrhopkin/status/1379366019580432384

THIS. In great big f**king flashing neon letters, 50 feet high.

Biden IS re-inventing centre-left politrics. and according to the polls, his economic policies are wildly popular - 60-70% support for his reflation package. If Labour doesn't learn from this, they don't deserve ever to regain power.

And this line in the follow-up tweet: "You win from the centre and govern from the Left".

Yes, yes, f**king YES!

That's what the Momentum lot need to realise. If they want a left-ist economic policy, they will not get it by insisting that Starmer joins them on the intellectual barricades. You do not win elections by positioning yourself way over to the left, especially on cultural issues. You win elections by appealing to as broad a mass of the population as possible. And as Biden is showing, once you've won that way, THEN you can implement the most radical economic policies for 80 years and still take the voters with you.

Or, you can insist on having a Leader of the Opposition who makes you feel good about the specifics that you care about, and doesn't have a hope of running the country.

[wilts rover]

What is it about Starmer's recent polling that convinces you he has a hope of running the country Billy?

I like it that under Corbyn it was the fault of 'the left' that Labour wasn'r polling well.

Now under Starmer its' sill the fault of the left they are not polling well.

If the right wing of the Labour Party insist on attacking a left-wing leader when he is in power, then attacking and alienating left-wing activists when they have power - maybe you should look somewhere else for the problem when they are not polling well.

https://twitter.com/joncstone/status/1378993035875393536

[Ldr]

Labour needs to shift perception back to being the party for the working person rather than which ever cause (blm, trans etc) students shout loudest about. As long as it has the image of student protest behind it (and Corbyn was the ultimate student revolutionary) then it is doomed. Why has no socialist Labour government been elected in my lifetime (born 1977) ? Those on the left need to be asking themselves that. Blair was pretty much centre / tory light