Brexit Dividend

[Glyn_Wigley]

It's £19bn actually comparing 2021 to 2019 or a fall of 11.1% in EU exports.

Comparing 2021 non-EU exports with 2019 they have fallen £26bn or 14.0%.

Clearly all exports have fallen significantly due to Covid but given the 11.1% v 14.0% comparison above please explain how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit.

Because UK goods are now much more expensive to EU customers, and they will now buy from cheaper suppliers inside the Single Market. It is that simple.

I understand that concept Glyn. The question though is why have exports fallen to non-EU countries by a higher amount as they shouldn't be more expensive to the non-EU customers?

Because we threw away free trade deals with about 60 non-EU countries that the EU has and we decided we didn't want any more and so out exports to those countries are now more expensive than they were before too. It is that simple.

And no, that wasn't the question. The question was 'how you can possibly blame any of that £19bn fall on Brexit' , so don't try to change the question when the very simple explanation that you didn't take into consideration is pointed out to you.

Or perhaps the real question is why you say that non-EU exports are falling when the latest official figures show that they've stayed the same against a rise of 7.4% to the EU.

[Branton Red]

Hey Glynn

I honestly wasn't trying to change the question - just re-phrase it.

The vast majority of our non-EU trade relates to countries which didn't have a trade deal previously, inc the US and China our biggest non-EU trade partners, and some trade deals we had with the EU have been rolled over.

Therefore if Brexit is the main reason, after Covid, for exports in total falling you'd expect EU exports to fall more than non-EU exports (probably quite significantly).

It's the other way round.

This in of itself suggests Brexit isn't the key driver behind exports falling - again other than Covid.

So 'how can you blame the fall in EU exports on Brexit?' equates to 'why have non-EU exports fallen more?'

It's a real conundrum whether you believe Brexit is the main driver, after Covid, or not.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

Wilts gave a bit of a clue as to why our EU exports haven't fallen relative to our non-EU exports. We export a lot of North Sea oil and gas to the EU. Not so much to the rest of the world. Those exports have gone up markedly in value over the past year. I'm sure that doesn't account for the whole story, but it will be at not insignificant part.

[Branton Red]

Branton.

Wilts gave a bit of a clue as to why our EU exports haven't fallen relative to our non-EU exports. We export a lot of North Sea oil and gas to the EU. Not so much to the rest of the world. Those exports have gone up markedly in value over the past year. I'm sure that doesn't account for the whole story, but it will be at not insignificant part.

It's a good call for some of the difference at least

[wilts rover]

Yes thanks Branton

These are the graphs from the ONS figures. As I said whilst exports have pretty much flatlined, what jumps out to me is the rise in Non-EU imports.

Presumably thats a Brexit benefit?

I agree Wilts. There has been a clear shift away from importing from the EU towards importing from outside the EU since the transition period. Yet we don't have a particularly different inflation rate compared to other countries. So I'm not sure if it's an economic benefit/cost or not?

Probably not great for our carbon footprint mind.

But the graphs are not showing that, imports from the EU are flat-lined, haven't changed, but non-EU imports have risen. To me that says something we once made at home is now being imported from abroad. Someone will have to dig down further into the figures to see what that is and why the big change?

What it certainly hasn't lead to are cheaper prices that were supposed to be another benefit of Brexit.

[wilts rover]

Yes thanks Branton

These are the graphs from the ONS figures. As I said whilst exports have pretty much flatlined, what jumps out to me is the rise in Non-EU imports.

Presumably thats a Brexit benefit?

I agree Wilts. There has been a clear shift away from importing from the EU towards importing from outside the EU since the transition period. Yet we don't have a particularly different inflation rate compared to other countries. So I'm not sure if it's an economic benefit/cost or not?

Probably not great for our carbon footprint mind.

But the graphs are not showing that, imports from the EU are flat-lined, have hardly changed, but non-EU imports have risen. To me that says something we once made at home is now being imported from abroad. Someone will have to dig down further into the figures to see what that is and why the big change?

What it certainly hasn't lead to are cheaper prices that were supposed to be another benefit of Brexit.

[Branton Red]

Wilts

Figures 1st those based on your graphs of imports of goods: -

EU goods imports 2021: Down 17.6% on 2019
Non-EU goods imports 2021: Up 8.2%
Total goods imports: Down 5.9%

UK manufacturing output 2021: Down 2.7% on 2019 per ONS www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

Comparing apples with pears a little here as the goods imports will include things not manufactured e.g fruit/veg

But UK manufacturing has recovered better from Covid than total goods imports. And there has been a shift from EU to non-EU goods imports.

To be expected as if you're buying something from the EU and the price increases/it gets more administratively difficult to source due to Brexit you may decide to buy from elsewhere so either a UK or non-EU business.

Positive: More work for UK manufacturers; Negative: higher prices - though again no sign we've got any higher inflation than other countries so far.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton
Look at the increase in non-EU fuel imports to the UK. That massively skews the overall non-EU import figure.

The big picture seems to be that we are importing and exporting less from/to the EU than before, and neither imports not exports from/to non-EU countries have made up the difference. Which seems like a major cause for concern.

[wilts rover]

According to the ONS report the rise in Non-EU imports is down to fuel. Our export to the EU of course also include fuel - as explained in the gas price thread.

How this relates to British manufacturing/farming, I guess we will see in the years to come. But they now face greater costs selling goods to their closest markets - I doubt thats a good thing for anyone.

To clarify they are not my graphs, they are the graphs in the ONS report

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/december2021

[SydneyRover]

Here's an interesting graph on UK imports from a non-EU country

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports/russia#:~:text=United%20Kingdom%20Imports%20from%20Russia%20was%20US%2424.5%20Billion%20during,updated%20on%20February%20of%202022.&text=Base%20metals%20not%20specified%20elsewhere%2C%20cermets.

[Branton Red]

Cheers Wilts sorry just meant yours as in the graphs you put up.

I'll clarify too that my previous stats were for the whole of 2019 and 2021.

If you take off imports of fuels it makes little general difference to the annual 2019 v 2021 import trends. The increase in non-EU fuels only really started to kick in from August. Though they've doubled over the second half of the year - causing our inflation.

Anyhow for completeness goods imports excluding fuel: -

EU goods imports 2021: Down 18.2% on 2019
Non-EU goods imports 2021: Up 6.6%
Total goods imports: Down 7.9%

So I'll stick with my initial analysis: -

UK manufacturing output 2021: Down 2.7% on 2019 per ONS www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/output/timeseries/k22a/diop

Comparing apples with pears a little here as the goods imports will include things not manufactured e.g fruit/veg

But UK manufacturing has recovered better from Covid than total goods imports. And there has been a shift from EU to non-EU goods imports.

To be expected as if you're buying something from the EU and the price increases/it gets more administratively difficult to source due to Brexit you may decide to buy from elsewhere so either a UK or non-EU business.

Positive: More work for UK manufacturers; Negative: higher prices - though again no sign we've got any higher inflation than other countries so far.

[Sprotyrover]

Here's an interesting graph on UK imports from a non-EU country

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports/russia#:~:text=United%20Kingdom%20Imports%20from%20Russia%20was%20US%2424.5%20Billion%20during,updated%20on%20February%20of%202022.&text=Base%20metals%20not%20specified%20elsewhere%2C%20cermets.

Here's another boring meaningless post from the Skip Rat!

[SydneyRover]

Here's an interesting graph on UK imports from a non-EU country

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/imports/russia#:~:text=United%20Kingdom%20Imports%20from%20Russia%20was%20US%2424.5%20Billion%20during,updated%20on%20February%20of%202022.&text=Base%20metals%20not%20specified%20elsewhere%2C%20cermets.

Here's another boring meaningless post from the Skip Rat!

You're not interested in how the UK interacts with the world sprot?

[selby]

  Can you see the wall paper for the graphs in your house Syd?

[wilts rover]

Thanks Branton, been an interesting discussion. I dont think there is much more to say at the moment - but I am sure we will be coming back to this topic reguarly in the months/years to come. I do hope your positive outlook is justified even though I am not seeing it myself.

Tho if it kicks off in Ukraine/Russia big time then all current financal analyses are going to be meaningless.

[Branton Red]

Cheers Wilts. I wouldn't say I was positive just not so negative as others. I voted leave to regain democratic powers at the ballot box. I knew there would be a negative economic impact, at least short term, but at a level that for me was a price worth paying. I never thought the negative impact would be as bad as the Remain side campaigned on, think I'm justified in that thought today, and still don't believe the negative impact will be as bad as is being predicted. Time will tell.

Ta

[foxbat]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

[Branton Red]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

Which laws that we were forced to accept or stopped from passing by being in the EU particularly upset you?

[aidanstu]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

Which laws that we were forced to accept or stopped from passing by being in the EU particularly upset you?

I bet a pound that he wanted bent cucumbers

[aidanstu]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

What’s your view on giving Scotland a vote on independence?

[Ldr]

Let them have it, also reunite Ireland

[Glyn_Wigley]

You can't go giving people what they want, that's not democratic!

[Branton Red]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

What’s your view on giving Scotland a vote on independence?

Democracy and the right to self-determination go hand in hand.

[SydneyRover]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

What’s your view on giving Scotland a vote on independence?

Democracy and the right to self-determination go hand in hand.

But has little t do with brexit

[Branton Red]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

Which laws that we were forced to accept or stopped from passing by being in the EU particularly upset you?

Sorry democracy is the key to our freedom, our happiness and our prosperity. Anyone with any inkling of political and economic history would recognise this.

Anybody who believes in any of the above 3 should be upset at any diminution of our democratic rights.

For the record to answer your question: VAT, farming subsidies, government procurement, government subsidies, loss of independence in trade deals - for a start. None of these being the least bit of small importance.

I'll remind you what I said earlier "since the formation of the EU in 1993 to 2019 when we left, the combined economic growth of the 12 original members, and the UK individually, was significantly behind that of every other major developed economy except Japan."  Want to disagree with this?

How much of our democratic rights do you think it's acceptable to hand over to the meritocratic, power-hungry (ever closer union), woefully long-term underperforming economically European Union?

[aidanstu]

negative impact ? ,a price (we all have top pay) worth paying ?, ' short term ? ( every year , year on year , to be be exact ) for  what exactly.
 I can't see any 'sunny uplands from Donny.

Just a little thing called democracy.

What’s your view on giving Scotland a vote on independence?

Democracy and the right to self-determination go hand in hand.

So are you against the Conservatives refusal to allow Scotland to be self determining?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Branton.

Forgive me for not answering your points directly at the moment, but there's a bit of clarification required.

1) Are you talking about the growth of GDP, or GDP per capita?

2) Do you agree with the UK remaining in NATO?

[foxbat]

A vote for Brexit was a vote for Putin to invade Ukraine because it weakened the Western alliance and emboldened Putin. Putin’s people engineered this by bankrolling the Conservative Party and the Brexit campaign, which is why Johnson has hidden the Russia Report.

[aidanstu]

A vote for Brexit was a vote for Putin to invade Ukraine because it weakened the Western alliance and emboldened Putin. Putin’s people engineered this by bankrolling the Conservative Party and the Brexit campaign, which is why Johnson has hidden the Russia Report.

It’s worse than that; they interfered with out election as identified in the report upon such; the report boris refused to publish before the election and then redacted before its eventual publishing after it. Boris is in bed with Putin.