Ukraine

[BillyStubbsTears]

Sweet f**king Jesus. I see the intelligence genes in the Royal Family are being diluted generation on generation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nadine_Writes/status/1501637351273074690

[normal rules]

Putin's rational. There's too much nonsense been talked about him being insane (some of it by me in the initial shock, admittedly).

He is what he's always been. A calculating thug. What's happened here is that for the first time in his life, he's miscalculated. And he knows it.

He's seen what happens to his forces when faced with any sort of modern resistance force. They are shit. The myth of the Russian army has disolved.

That's not to say he won't continue committing bestial war crimes by trying to bomb Ukraine into surrender. But he knows he cannot win this.

What he needs is a way out. That requires skilfull backstage diplomacy by the Americans.

What he absolutely does not need is American troops and planes firing at his forces. That leaves him facing the choice between utter humiliation or escalation.

I’m unsure invading Ukraine was “rational”

[River Don]

Invading Ukraine was rational I think. A big gamble but rational.

He thought the response of Ukraine would only be limited because he'd seen the reaction to Crimea.

I don't think for a minute he expected a full blown war. I think a special military operation was what he thought it would be.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Putin's rational. There's too much nonsense been talked about him being insane (some of it by me in the initial shock, admittedly).

He is what he's always been. A calculating thug. What's happened here is that for the first time in his life, he's miscalculated. And he knows it.

He's seen what happens to his forces when faced with any sort of modern resistance force. They are shit. The myth of the Russian army has disolved.

That's not to say he won't continue committing bestial war crimes by trying to bomb Ukraine into surrender. But he knows he cannot win this.

What he needs is a way out. That requires skilfull backstage diplomacy by the Americans.

What he absolutely does not need is American troops and planes firing at his forces. That leaves him facing the choice between utter humiliation or escalation.

I’m unsure invading Ukraine was “rational”

It was if you thought the resistance was going to fade away and your advance guard was going to walk into Kyiv.

You didn't have to be insane to make that mistake. Just wrong.

[Ldr]

Sweet f**king Jesus. I see the intelligence genes in the Royal Family are being diluted generation on generation.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nadine_Writes/status/1501637351273074690

Ah the proud result of centuries of inbreeding

[BillyStubbsTears]

Invading Ukraine was rational I think. A big gamble but rational.

He thought the response of Ukraine would only be limited because he'd seen the reaction to Crimea.

I don't think for a minute he expected a full blown war. I think a special military operation was what he thought it would be.

That's precisely what the analyst said in the Twitter thread I posted last night.

This talk from Russia about this being a Special Military Operation (not a War) isn't propaganda. It's what Putin thought it would be. He thought it would be an incursion into Kyiv and other major cities to kick out the Govt and install a new one.

There is no way on God's earth he'd have gone in if he knew what was coming.

The job now is to give him a way to get out. Doesn't need us to make an example of him. Ukraine has done that. He knows that Russia is a busted flush. He's not going to invade anywhere else. Just needs this ending with a compromise, rather than escalating.

[River Don]

I'm not sure he is coming to terms with the idea of compromise. It looks to me like his objectives remain:Crimea Rusdian. Eastern territories Russian with a land bridge to Crimea (hence the unremitting siege on Mariopol.) No NATO or EU and regime change.

He hasn't wavered on any of that yet and it's completely unacceptable to Ukraine.

So far his approach is escalate and escalate.

[BillyStubbsTears]

They should sing the Ukraine national anthem. Everyone else should go on stage and sign the same, each in their own language.

if it is the usual kitsch-fest, in this environment, that would be an insult.

[River Don]

The Italian authorities are currently swarming all over a £532 million super yacht believed to belong to none other than Putin himself.

I do hope it is something that actually affects him personally.

I don't think they should call these things yachts, yachts should have a sail. These are sea-palaces.

[wilts rover]

Invading Ukraine was rational I think. A big gamble but rational.

He thought the response of Ukraine would only be limited because he'd seen the reaction to Crimea.

I don't think for a minute he expected a full blown war. I think a special military operation was what he thought it would be.

That's precisely what the analyst said in the Twitter thread I posted last night.

This talk from Russia about this being a Special Military Operation (not a War) isn't propaganda. It's what Putin thought it would be. He thought it would be an incursion into Kyiv and other major cities to kick out the Govt and install a new one.

There is no way on God's earth he'd have gone in if he knew what was coming.

The job now is to give him a way to get out. Doesn't need us to make an example of him. Ukraine has done that. He knows that Russia is a busted flush. He's not going to invade anywhere else. Just needs this ending with a compromise, rather than escalating.

He also knows he can flatten every Ukranian town and city until there is no resistence left with NATO coming to their aid.

He doesn't believe Ukraine should exist.

But you think he is looking for a way out? I think you are wrong. He has no reason to stop - and wont stop unless forced to.

[River Don]

The Antalaya talks have achieved nothing.

Essentially the Russians are still demanding Ukraine surrender.

[Filo]

The Antalaya talks have achieved nothing.

Essentially the Russians are still demanding Ukraine surrender.

Anyone  else think the Ukraine guy should have just stuck one on Lavrov?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Invading Ukraine was rational I think. A big gamble but rational.

He thought the response of Ukraine would only be limited because he'd seen the reaction to Crimea.

I don't think for a minute he expected a full blown war. I think a special military operation was what he thought it would be.

That's precisely what the analyst said in the Twitter thread I posted last night.

This talk from Russia about this being a Special Military Operation (not a War) isn't propaganda. It's what Putin thought it would be. He thought it would be an incursion into Kyiv and other major cities to kick out the Govt and install a new one.

There is no way on God's earth he'd have gone in if he knew what was coming.

The job now is to give him a way to get out. Doesn't need us to make an example of him. Ukraine has done that. He knows that Russia is a busted flush. He's not going to invade anywhere else. Just needs this ending with a compromise, rather than escalating.

He also knows he can flatten every Ukranian town and city until there is no resistence left with NATO coming to their aid.

He doesn't believe Ukraine should exist.

But you think he is looking for a way out? I think you are wrong. He has no reason to stop - and wont stop unless forced to.

With respect, I think you are putting a retrospective strategy on where we are now. Putin has nothing to gain from this situation now. Shelling Ukrainian cities to obliteration will not "win" him this war. His country will be economically destroyed.

He was expecting a quick knock out win, with minimal sanctions and the presentation of the West with a fait accompli.

He has blown that in a spectacular misjudgement of his own forces' power, and Ukraine's weakness. He's pounding cities now because that is what he has done in the past. Not through any brilliant strategy. He's doing it from an absence of other options. It's like the old saying about incompetent managers: "Something must be done. This is something. Therefore we must do this."


The myth of Putin as the genius geopolitical chess player, being steps ahead of anyone else has evaporated in a fortnight. He's bungled this one on a monumental scale.

But...

He has 7000 nukes. And we need to give him a way out, not push him into a corner. Then get him in the box that he has made for himself and keep him under control until nature takes its course.

[BillyStubbsTears]

For the record, I think Putin is an evil bas**rd who doesn't deserve to walk the earth. If there was a way of safely assassinating him and I was the only person alive who could do it, I'd volunteer immediately.

But I would prefer to see him live and even stay securely in power, than risk WWIII.

[River Don]

It might be possible when/if Putin feels he needs a way out.

But right now, he obviously still feels he will achieve all his objectives, the only way to end this sooner is for Ukraine to accept its fate.

So, I suppose we have to keep supplying Ukraine, keep grinding on let the economic sanctions do there work and just hope Russia doesn't escalate further.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Agree with the last paragraph RD.

Not sure I agree with the second. Putin cannot achieve his objectives because his No1 one was to subdue Ukraine. He's blown that one. I sense he's now floundering not really knowing what to do. 

[River Don]

I don't think Putin can achieve all his objects either, I don't think he can afford  it.

But at the moment it looks like he still believes he can achieve everything. Until he changes his mind, the fighting will go on.

[River Don]

More escalation

The Russians have made a statement threatening European airports if Western countries continue to flood Ukraine with modern weapons systems.

[ravenrover]

Doing their best to drag NATO into it

[wilts rover]

Putin is the richest man in the world. He is also an autocratic, psychopathic despot in charge of a massive military force. Look at history to see what happens with this type of peron, they don't negotiate or back down - they eiher conqueor or get defeated in battle. There is no point thinking rationally - he isn't rational.

Someone on the radio today said that what he wants is Ukraine with no Ukranians in it. And that shows in his medieval tactics.

Support the Ukranian forces by providing them with arms and munitions (and looking after their families) and put the strongest possible sanctions on Russia to diminish his support at home. I have mentioned before, Russian leaders dont get overthrown by foreign powers - they are deposed at home.

Everyone needs to be prepared for a long attritional battle however - this could go on for years.

[Colin C No.3]

There is no way Ukraine would be allowed to join NATO, end of.

That is one of Putin’s concerns (allegedly). If the West could convince him that it would never sanction Ukraine joining NATO, would he accept that as his ‘face saving way out’ however he ‘sold it’ back in Russia?

My fear is that the longer his invasion stalls, Kyiv holds out & Zelensky remains alive & defiant, Putin will use chemical weapons under the pretext that Ukraine had them & used them first.

He’s used cluster & vacuum bombs on civilians for christs sake so he’s not going to blink at using biological weapons.

As for nukes…..I really, really don’t know. This is someone who is paranoid about catching covid so has had two years virtually ‘shut away’ from anyone apart from his close, nodding, approving lap dogs.

He had military successes in Chechnya, Syria & Crimea because there was little resistance. He’s found an army & a population that will fight to the last man/woman standing.

He is quickly running out of options.

[River Don]

Putin is afraid of Liberal democracy and his own people.

The big concern Putin has about Ukraine is that it has been turning west. The people in Russia by and large do not see what the west is like but Ukrainians do. If Ukraine becomes a European style nation then Putin knows Russians will start to see the truth of it too.

That's what he fears most.

[wilts rover]

Fascinating thread here which both shows the reach of Russian money in London and makes you wonder - if we can't let homeless Ukranian refugees into the country without a visa as they might be a security risk - why is the stepdaughter of Putin's current Foreign Minister not a security risk, free to roam about the country from her mansion in Kensington?

https://twitter.com/pevchikh/status/1501878715709632518

[wilts rover]

Putin has said he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO as then nuclear missiles and NATO troops will be on Russia's border.

Putin has also said he doesn't believe Ukraine should exist but should be absorbed into a Greater Russia. Thus putting Poland (a NATO member) on Russia's border.

[Colin C No.3]

Ukraine WILL eventually fall.

It is the ‘buffer zone’ between the West & Russia Putin has wanted since he became President, possibly before.

He does not ‘recognise’ the events of 1989 when the Berlin Wall fell & Soviet troops left Berlin back to a country in economic, military & political ‘ruin’.

He has watched as the Baltic States along with Poland & Hungary became part of NATO. He believes it is NATO along with the US that have ‘pushed’ so far East they are now ‘knocking on Russia’s door’.

Ukraine will undoubtedly become, as I’ve said before, the ‘sacrificial lamb’ that avoids WW3 & that = nuclear obliteration of the planet.

[River Don]

Putin has said he doesn't want Ukraine to join NATO as then nuclear missiles and NATO troops will be on Russia's border.

Putin has also said he doesn't believe Ukraine should exist but should be absorbed into a Greater Russia. Thus putting Poland (a NATO member) on Russia's border.

...he also said he wanted Poland and the Baltics to return to the Russian sphere.

He has an admiration for the old USSR. He would like to rebuild it not as a communist state but a new Russian Empire. A fascist, gangsters paradise.

It is not that NATO has pushed east. Nobody has forced the former eastern block states to join the EU and NATO.

It is that the former eastern block has reached west, for prosperity and security.

[IDM]

More escalation

The Russians have made a statement threatening European airports if Western countries continue to flood Ukraine with modern weapons systems.

Link.?

I’ve been following the BBC ticker on Ukraine regularly.  This isn’t on there?  Nor was your comment on Poland.

Not saying you’re wrong, but I’d like to see where these things are coming from.?

[River Don]

More escalation

The Russians have made a statement threatening European airports if Western countries continue to flood Ukraine with modern weapons systems.

Link.?

I’ve been following the BBC ticker on Ukraine regularly.  This isn’t on there?  Nor was your comment on Poland.

Not saying you’re wrong, but I’d like to see where these things are coming from.?

It's the Daily Express. I know...

But they are quoting an official Russian spokesperson.

[IDM]

Meanwhile I’ve looked at the Sun’s blog, cos they’re more likely to sensationalise things, and there’s nowt there either..

[River Don]

Meanwhile I’ve looked at the Sun’s blog, cos they’re more likely to sensationalise things, and there’s nowt there either..

For some reason my phone gives me lots of updates from the Express. Normally it's alarmist stories about imminent horror weather conditions to frighten pensioners. Now though they seem to get Ukraine stories first.

I think they are trying to out sensation the Sun

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1578354/Ukraine-russia-war-live-vladimir-putin-volodymyr-zelensky-latest-Kyiv