0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.
Quote from: Bristol Red Rover on September 29, 2022, 06:20:03 pmA logistical problem that has seen them out gunning Ukraine by around a factor of ten.Where is your info from about the availability of weapons and inability to manufacture, and buy, more? How does this complare to Ukraine?Ukraine has a bloated conscript army too. Russia has far more resources than Ukraine. Far more conscripts available.Not sure why you are so passionately one sided in this, except for you swallowing pro west/US propaganda, which is mainly put out by the Ukraine MoD.Russia conscripts not wanting to fight v Ukraine Conscripts wanting to fightCan you see the anomaly there?
A logistical problem that has seen them out gunning Ukraine by around a factor of ten.Where is your info from about the availability of weapons and inability to manufacture, and buy, more? How does this complare to Ukraine?Ukraine has a bloated conscript army too. Russia has far more resources than Ukraine. Far more conscripts available.Not sure why you are so passionately one sided in this, except for you swallowing pro west/US propaganda, which is mainly put out by the Ukraine MoD.
Quote from: Bristol Red Rover on September 29, 2022, 08:39:00 pmQuote from: Dutch Uncle on September 29, 2022, 08:33:26 pmThe best assessment I have seen of the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.htmlI don't believe he will either, but I do think chemical weapons are a very real possibility, especially if some 'deniability' can be scraped from a 'nearby' chemical plant.And for balance, do you think Ukraine may try chem weapons? They are already shelling with the illegal anti personel mines in massive numbers.Honest question - do you know that Ukraine has chemical weapons? Do you have a source? I have not seen a source which says so, and a quick google search says they do not have any programs
Quote from: Dutch Uncle on September 29, 2022, 08:33:26 pmThe best assessment I have seen of the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.htmlI don't believe he will either, but I do think chemical weapons are a very real possibility, especially if some 'deniability' can be scraped from a 'nearby' chemical plant.And for balance, do you think Ukraine may try chem weapons? They are already shelling with the illegal anti personel mines in massive numbers.
The best assessment I have seen of the possibility of Putin using nuclear weapons:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.htmlI don't believe he will either, but I do think chemical weapons are a very real possibility, especially if some 'deniability' can be scraped from a 'nearby' chemical plant.
Dutch: the one thing that the article you referenced does not mention is the character and psychology of Vladimir Putin himself - and the role of that in a possible future use of real or improvised nuclear and/or chemical weapons. From what I have read and seen Putin's personality is absolutely key to the liklihood of the use of those weapns. Do you know more than I?BobG
That sounds like a convetional attack on a nuclear power station, or maybe a chemical factory, then. And blame it on the Ukrainians. This might be a link worth seeing although I cannot find either the name or the previous job(s) of the 'ex CIA officer' being interviewed:https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/28/opinions/how-close-putin-nuclear-war-de-bretton-gordon/index.htmlMe? I worry like hell about the rats. That story tells us everything we need to know right now about Putin.Bob
There's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.
Quote from: scawsby steve on September 30, 2022, 05:52:29 pmThere's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.Steve - talking about Russian nuclear protocols, were you aware of this near miss and that fact that in 1983 a Russian officer at the cutting edge of Russian nuclear defences ignored protocol and did not report radar signals of incoming ICBMs up the chain of command 'guessing' correctly that it was a false alarm, probably the closest we have been to annihilation:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incidentThere are always some good and reasonable people around, we just need them to be in the right places at the right time
Quote from: Dutch Uncle on September 30, 2022, 07:05:23 pmQuote from: scawsby steve on September 30, 2022, 05:52:29 pmThere's one thing people are forgetting in all this; the nuclear protocol Putin will have to go through before an attack can be launched. He hasn't a button under his desk he can just press to launch an attack.If he gives the order, it will be to generals and commanders who will know what the outcome is going to be, that NATO will obliterate the whole of Russia in less than 30 seconds. Are they going to obey his orders in that scenario?The main worry for us is that if it is a strategic strike, rather than a tactical one, we'll be the first in line. At the moment, Putin and his cronies seem to hate us with a vengeance, because of the arms we've supplied Ukraine with, and the stupid sabre rattling of Johnson and Truss.Our biggest hope now is that the Russian people rise against him.Steve - talking about Russian nuclear protocols, were you aware of this near miss and that fact that in 1983 a Russian officer at the cutting edge of Russian nuclear defences ignored protocol and did not report radar signals of incoming ICBMs up the chain of command 'guessing' correctly that it was a false alarm, probably the closest we have been to annihilation:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1983_Soviet_nuclear_false_alarm_incidentThere are always some good and reasonable people around, we just need them to be in the right places at the right time There was a documentary on Channel 4 about this incident a few years ago. The world was literally a whisker away from nuclear war. Absolutely terrifying just how close we came to catastrophe.
BRR: this article by Prof Wade at LSE is interesting. It gives the rationale for several of the points you have been making:https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/Different subject: I have a hazy memory of a time in the (early/mid?) 80's when the USSR became convinced that the USA and NATO had decided to attack. Quite unconsciously the west had given all the wrong signals. I think Mrs T. and Ronald Reagan had stoked the rhetorical fires. Without checking at this stupid o'clock I think the Soviet response was to launch a pre-emptive attack. I have Christmas in my head - but it could be fantasy. I can't remember why it never happened but the world came damn close that time too.BobG
Quote from: BobG on October 01, 2022, 04:32:56 amBRR: this article by Prof Wade at LSE is interesting. It gives the rationale for several of the points you have been making:https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/03/30/why-the-us-and-nato-have-long-wanted-russia-to-attack-ukraine/Different subject: I have a hazy memory of a time in the (early/mid?) 80's when the USSR became convinced that the USA and NATO had decided to attack. Quite unconsciously the west had given all the wrong signals. I think Mrs T. and Ronald Reagan had stoked the rhetorical fires. Without checking at this stupid o'clock I think the Soviet response was to launch a pre-emptive attack. I have Christmas in my head - but it could be fantasy. I can't remember why it never happened but the world came damn close that time too.BobGThanks for that link Bob. Pretty much how I see it, though I'd say the US underestimated the downside of this strategy both short and long term.If Russia remains fighting in Ukraine, this is going to cost the US a lot. Ultimately, Russia has the manpower, and I think the economy to defeat Ukraine. It is also weakening the economies of the West. How far that will go or how significant that is we'll see, but I doubt the US calculations included that.The China factor is v significant on a few levels, again time will show, and again, I don't think the US has factored in that.The biggie right now is if NATO allows Ukraine in. As it stands, I don't think the NATO process allows a country at war to join? It would be madness to allow it mainly as that would bring the nuke potential well into the centre of the table.The US deliberately stirred and keeps on stiring this hornets nest, that is unforgivable. I believe Johnson played a significant part too.Either way, Ukraine, the pawn here, is screwed whatever happens.For the record, I'll say again, Russia is far from innocent, its been itching for an opportunity to absorb some or all of Ukraine since it lost it. But that is what the US played on and invited Russia to get involved.