Ukraine

[BillyStubbsTears]

We could be seeing the start of a Russian Civil War, it will probably depend on how quick Wagner moves, get to Moscow in the next 24 hours and things could get tasty in Russia and on the Frontline in Ukraine as military structures of the Russians crumble

Rostov is something like 600 miles from Moscow, Filo, an army can't cover that distance in 24hrs unless they're all on transport and I suppose they will meet with resistance along the way.

Wagner units are already at Voronezh, 500km from Moscow. Not much further than Newcastle to London.

[normal rules]

Sounds like the Wagner mercenaries and their leaders have seen the light. Futile loss of their own comrades for the sole sake of pandering to their old hot headed Kremlin leaders . It’s a military coup in all but name . Interesting days ahead of they get the backing and support of the general public .
I do wonder is Pregozhin has been turned by Western Powers . A classic and very obvious espionage tactic. Attack the end my from
Within . Using its own people .

[DonnyBazR0ver]

This all goes back to the real reason Russia wanted Donbas and beyond, to plunder the mineral wealth of Ukraine and divi the spoils between the Oligarchs, under the guise of DeNazification. The plan wasn't supposed to include the mass killing of civilians or the huge losses of military personnel.

Whatever happens with this 'coup' and whoever controls the military, the objectives may remain the same in keeping hold of the Donbas etc.

How Ukraine and the West take advantage of this situation remains to be seen.

I would imagine the average Russian citizen won't have a clue what's going on and don't care as long as they can continue going about their 'normal' lives.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

[Filo]

Russian Helicopters have opened fire on Wagner convoy, the situation is deteriorating quickly, is Putin getting desperate?

[ncRover]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Is Russia ultimately doomed to regress to a norm of autocracy / authoritarianism? If so, why is this?

The size of the country? Cold weather? Lack of of accessible coastline for trade?

[DonnyOsmond]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Does he want peace?

[danumdon]

If this doesn't get closed down very quickly then you'd imagine the snowball effect taking shape, when and after that point is reached then all bets will be off, absolutely anything could materialise.

Ive no faith in Prigozhin being any sort of medium to long term solution, it could get very messy, lets hope the Yanks have woken Biden and briefed him on what he now needs to consider?

I wonder if deals are actively taking place behind closed doors for Putin to just disappear into the ether?

[River Don]

A flight left Moscow 10 minutes ago. There is speculation Putin was on board, the Kremlin reports he's still at work in Moscow.

Putin’s presidential plane took off from Moscow Vnukovo Airport at 2:16PM Moscow time (12:16PM BST) and then headed north-west.

According to data from the FlightRadar tracking website, the plane reached the Tver area - about 180km from Moscow and where Putin has a residence – before disappearing from the system.

It has not been possible to confirm whether Putin was on the plane and Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov has told news agency TASS the president is “working in the Kremlin”.

[BillyStubbsTears]

If this map of Wagner's advance is correct, Putin will be well advised to get out of Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672607762272985088/photo/1

[Filo]

If this map of Wagner's advance is correct, Putin will be well advised to get out of Moscow.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1672607762272985088/photo/1

Putins plane apparently left Moscow a couple of hours ago

[belton rover]

This is a truly scary development. There have always been questions about Putin’s mental state and what his ‘final act’ might look like.
That final act could be very, very close now.

[DonnyBazR0ver]

If Peskov says Putins in the Kremlin then that's definite he isn't! Cowardly bunker grandpa.

[scawsby steve]

This is a truly scary development. There have always been questions about Putin’s mental state and what his ‘final act’ might look like.
That final act could be very, very close now.

If you're talking about nukes, BR, I doubt that any of the generals involved in the deployment of such a move would obey that kind of order from Putin, as things are now.

[River Don]

The bright spot for the Russian military campaign is they have finally managed to take a major city... It's a Russian city but still...

[ncRover]

The collapse of the Russian state begins…

[normal rules]

A rebel army wanting to remove an autocrat from his own autocracy?
The very collapse of Russia as we know it?
The worrying thing here is some months ago, Putin stated very clearly that a world without Russia, as he sees it, is not a World worth living in.
Worrying times ahead. Even more so.
Self implosion of a super power with nuclear arms. Not good.

[normal rules]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Interesting to think Prigozhin could end up as an Ally of the West.
He wants peace in Ukraine. I can see the west backing him. Peace in Ukraine. At the expense of him toppling Putin and taking power. Either as the overall new military commander, or perhaps president. Or both.

[normal rules]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Does he want peace?

Peace for the sake of power. At the moment he is seen by many world leaders as simply a commander of a rogue army.
But that could change if he is perceived as a peacekeeper on a global scale. And with that will come a huge change in how he is perceived.
And with that comes Power.

[wilts rover]

Ukranian troops apparently crossing the Dnipro river at Kherson (this is a new front, been no fighting in this area as yet during the advance)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672642236012544000

[wilts rover]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Interesting to think Prigozhin could end up as an Ally of the West.
He wants peace in Ukraine. I can see the west backing him. Peace in Ukraine. At the expense of him toppling Putin and taking power. Either as the overall new military commander, or perhaps president. Or both.

Its irelevant what the west do. There aren't going to be NATO troops in Russia.

Will the Russian Army and the oligarchs back him? Because without either of those he will have no power. And wont be there very long.

Whoever controls the Army controls Russia. Always has done - always will do.

[normal rules]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Interesting to think Prigozhin could end up as an Ally of the West.
He wants peace in Ukraine. I can see the west backing him. Peace in Ukraine. At the expense of him toppling Putin and taking power. Either as the overall new military commander, or perhaps president. Or both.

Its irelevant what the west do. There aren't going to be NATO troops in Russia.

Will the Russian Army and the oligarchs back him? Because without either of those he will have no power. And wont be there very long.

Whoever controls the Army controls Russia. Always has done - always will do.

Who said anything about NATO troops in Ukraine, or Russia?
Backing takes many forms.
Money, influence, status, power. The lifting of sanctions by anyone linked to Wagner for instance.
These are all things that Prigozhin can be afforded by Western Powers without any NATO troops setting foot in Russia or Ukraine. And despite his reputation and previous misdemeanours, if it were to bring stability and peace in Ukraine then it’s a very real possibility.

[belton rover]

This is a truly scary development. There have always been questions about Putin’s mental state and what his ‘final act’ might look like.
That final act could be very, very close now.

If you're talking about nukes, BR, I doubt that any of the generals involved in the deployment of such a move would obey that kind of order from Putin, as things are now.

I hope you’re right.

[wilts rover]

Ukranian troops apparently crossing the Dnipro river at Kherson (this is a new front, been no fighting in this area as yet during the advance)

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1672642236012544000

And advanced in Donetsk to retake areas that have been under Russian control since 2014.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1672632377607180288

[wilts rover]

Prigozhin wants peace with Ukraine and power in Moscow. This was always one potential endgame.

I'm certainly not saying the world would be a better place with him in the Kremlin. But it was a possibility from the moment Putin failed to win a quick victory.

Russian history is peppered with such examples.

Interesting to think Prigozhin could end up as an Ally of the West.
He wants peace in Ukraine. I can see the west backing him. Peace in Ukraine. At the expense of him toppling Putin and taking power. Either as the overall new military commander, or perhaps president. Or both.

Its irelevant what the west do. There aren't going to be NATO troops in Russia.

Will the Russian Army and the oligarchs back him? Because without either of those he will have no power. And wont be there very long.

Whoever controls the Army controls Russia. Always has done - always will do.

Who said anything about NATO troops in Ukraine, or Russia?
Backing takes many forms.
Money, influence, status, power. The lifting of sanctions by anyone linked to Wagner for instance.
These are all things that Prigozhin can be afforded by Western Powers without any NATO troops setting foot in Russia or Ukraine. And despite his reputation and previous misdemeanours, if it were to bring stability and peace in Ukraine then it’s a very real possibility.

This is all despite Prizoghin saying the reason he has turned on Putin is that he is not committing enough men and troops in Ukraine to defeat the Ukranian Army and that the war there will will continue is it? He wants MORE Russians' and Russian resources in Ukraine - not less.

https://apnews.com/article/putin-russia-ukraine-war-prigozhin-infighting-0e051f0a43522f57ef1810a8b03f6e62

[Filo]

Wagner are returning to base

[DonnyBazR0ver]

Yep, all over. Lukashenko stepped in.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Just heard a professor of Russian politics hypothesising this may have been a trick by Putin and Prigozhin to smoke out Kremlin I siders who weren't 100% with Putin
 

[wilts rover]

Just heard a professor of Russian politics hypothesising this may have been a trick by Putin and Prigozhin to smoke out Kremlin I siders who weren't 100% with Putin
 

Nah, it was all NATO...

[ravenrover]

PRUGOZHIN is a dead man walking now