The Labour Files

[Branton Red]

Tyke

I agree the statistics suggest that there was very little positive voting for parties going on.

These elections were about voting against things.

In Selby and Somerset against the Tories for the reasons you outline. (Note how the Labour vote fell in Somerset and the LD vote fell in Selby).

There was some of that anti-Tory voting in Uxbridge as well but the anti-ULEZ vote won the day.

Governments lose elections and that's what will almost certainly happen next year rather than Labour winning loads of people over. Labour just represent the only available change given our flawed FPTP system.

[Donnywolf]

.... and the sad thing about all this for me is whichever Party people align with there are typically 33 to 35 per cent who don't bother to vote at all

In the by elections the turn outs were worse than that with more than 50 per cent not bothering to vote in any of the 3

How do they expect to affect any change at all ?

[Branton Red]

.... and the sad thing about all this for me is whichever Party people align with there are typically 33 to 35 per cent who don't bother to vote at all

In the by elections the turn outs were worse than that with more than 50 per cent not bothering to vote in any of the 3

How do they expect to affect any change at all ?

The key problem is the FPTP system.

[tyke1962]

Tyke.

When you take a break from your stream of consciousness posts, here's one for you to ponder.

What policy slate do you think Labour could offer which would a) please you and b) get the folk of Selby and Ainsty out in their droves, singing The Red Flag?

Your going down our absent friend Sydney's favourite go to when his Labour ass was nailed to the floor .

Well what would you do etc etc etc ?

A none too clever tactic to deflect the argument on to me personally so as to let Labour off the hook .

I see you .

How's about Labour attract voters to get off their backsides and actually vote for them doing the job they are presumably paid to do .

How's about politicians coming up with the policies whilst raising the revenues back to them that pulls people up ? .

How's about they do their fecking job ?

If you want to exclude people in the party who may have an alternative vision , things you can tap in to but instead  shut the debate down altogether and only have a party reading from the same script then little wonder you've nowt to offer anyone other than your not the Tories .

There's hardly anything in this country that's working or fit for purpose after 13 years of Tory government and still you can't offer a real alternative .

Or your running that scared of the Tories you daren't say shyte .

Either way it's not a good look but don't take my word for it Billy , check the turnout last week .

[Iberian Red]

Tyke.

When you take a break from your stream of consciousness posts, here's one for you to ponder.

What policy slate do you think Labour could offer which would a) please you and b) get the folk of Selby and Ainsty out in their droves, singing The Red Flag?

Your going down our absent friend Sydney's favourite go to when his Labour ass was nailed to the floor .

Well what would you do etc etc etc ?

A none too clever tactic to deflect the argument on to me personally so as to let Labour off the hook .

I see you .

How's about Labour attract voters to get off their backsides and actually vote for them doing the job they are presumably paid to do .

How's about politicians coming up with the policies whilst raising the revenues back to them that pulls people up ? .

How's about they do their fecking job ?

If you want to exclude people in the party who may have an alternative vision , things you can tap in to but instead  shut the debate down altogether and only have a party reading from the same script then little wonder you've nowt to offer anyone other than your not the Tories .

There's hardly anything in this country that's working or fit for purpose after 13 years of Tory government and still you can't offer a real alternative .

Or your running that scared of the Tories you daren't say shyte .

Either way it's not a good look but don't take my word for it Billy , check the turnout last week .

The irony of your first 3 paragraphs is hilarious.

[albie]

Ulez will be unlikely to have an impact on GE votes.
At a GE voters behave differently to a by-election, and are more likely to revert to tribe.

Ulez also tend to attract opposition until set up, then people get used to it and see the benefits from the scheme.
Labour could have committed to scrappage support similar to other parts of the country, to manage the change for low income people impacted.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Tyke

I'm asking you to apply a bit of logical thinking to your rants.

You think Labour aren't left wing enough.

You also condemn Labour for not overturning a 20,000 Tory majority in Selby in a way that you approve of.

So I'm assuming you've thought about how you might expect Labour to both appeal to a paleo-socialist like you, and a traditionally strongly right wing seat like Selby.

No need to get angry. Just give us your thoughts.

[tyke1962]

Tyke

I'm asking you to apply a bit of logical thinking to your rants.

You think Labour aren't left wing enough.

You also condemn Labour for not overturning a 20,000 Tory majority in Selby in a way that you approve of.

So I'm assuming you've thought about how you might expect Labour to both appeal to a paleo-socialist like you, and a traditionally strongly right wing seat like Selby.

No need to get angry. Just give us your thoughts.

Are you aware Billy that in the 2017 GE over 19k voted for Labour in Selby as opposed to the 16k who ticked the Labour box last Thursday ? .

Yes since the boundary change in 2010 it is a normally safe Tory seat but my point is which is something you aren't willing to acknowledge is that Labour won the seat because voters stayed at home and not because as you believe Keith has steered the Labour ship to less turbulent waters given the potential vote in Selby should really be hitting nearly 20k with some light socialism going on .

I've warned about the stay away electorate many times on here and in this instance it worked in Labour's favour but it will also go against them too in my opinion at a GE .

If you are only going to appeal to Tory voters or swing voters  which looks to me to be the strategy and playing the Mandelson card of " you've no where else to go " for the rest then that's not working either .

The Tory and swing voters are staying at home and you were short in Selby of what was previously achieved by Labour .

Risky strategy Billy .

[Glyn_Wigley]

Are you aware Billy that in the 2017 GE over 19k voted for Labour in Selby as opposed to the 16k who ticked the Labour box last Thursday ? .

Are you aware Tyke that the turnout in 2019 was 71.7% but last week only 44.8%, as is the norm when comparing by-election turnouts to General Election turnouts?

[danumdon]

These could turn out to be very troubling times for a Starmer led Labour. These three Bye elections were a perfect staging post for Labour to announce to the electorate what they've been getting and what they will get under a Labour administration.

Instead they can't because the current Labour is so introverted and bland its almost as if they need to out Tory a Tory party who lost their way a long time ago. Competing for the title of who can U turn the most with a busted flush is not a winning policy and won't bring Labour the results they desire.

Even at this late stage its not too late for Starmer to see the light, transformative, aspirational and fair policies will create the daylight between them and a party who have been in power for so long they forgot what it means to lead.

If Starmer is prepared to take the risk of coming up short at the next GE then all he needs to do is carry on down this same dull, unimaginative and hesitant road he now sticks to like old glue.

If this fella is so risk averse and is willing to risk having to possibly look to a demented Ed Davie to see him over the line then it won't just be his party that suffers the consequence of these feeble tactics.

He's had his warnings, lets see if his focus groups can really mess it up for him.

Some people have the reverse Midas touch, lets look back on this in a year or so.

[tyke1962]

Are you aware Billy that in the 2017 GE over 19k voted for Labour in Selby as opposed to the 16k who ticked the Labour box last Thursday ? .

Are you aware Tyke that the turnout in 2019 was 71.7% but last week only 44.8%, as is the norm when comparing by-election turnouts to General Election turnouts?

Labour Party votes and turnout since the seat was created in 2010 @ General Elections .

2019 - 13,858 - 71.7 %

2017 - 19,149 - 74.1 %

2015 - 14,168 - 69.4 %

2010 - 13,297 - 71.1  %

[Glyn_Wigley]

Are you aware Billy that in the 2017 GE over 19k voted for Labour in Selby as opposed to the 16k who ticked the Labour box last Thursday ? .

Are you aware Tyke that the turnout in 2019 was 71.7% but last week only 44.8%, as is the norm when comparing by-election turnouts to General Election turnouts?

Labour Party votes and turnout since the seat was created in 2010 @ General Elections .

2019 - 13,858 - 71.7 %

2017 - 19,149 - 74.1 %

2015 - 14,168 - 69.4 %

2010 - 13,297 - 71.1  %

Thus underlining my point entirely, that by-elections traditionally have much lower turnouts than at General Elections. So why are you trying to draw a comparison between the two based on voter numbers instead of percentage of vote per party which is a more direct comparison?

Just for context, here's the turnout for the other two by-elections:
Uxbridge 2019: 68.5%
Uxbridge 2023: 46.2%

Somerset & Frome 2019: 75.6%
Somerset & Frome 2023: 44.2%

Are you going to compare the numbers of votes cast per party in those two as well, or realise it's a silly thing to do?

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure how fixed in your thinking you have to be to see Labour overturn a 20,000 majority and conclude that this means Starmer is in trouble.

Just...weird.

[albie]

BST,

The bye-elections were decided by witholding support to register disapproval.
Both Tory and Labour votes were impacted, but as the incumbent, people had more incentive to sit at home to punish the government.

A good summary here;
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/uxbridge-south-ruislip-ulez-expansion-sadiq-khan-conservative-labour/

On the issue of ULEZ, the article links through to work by Prof Phil Goodwin, which shows how the process works from previous examples.

The question for the GE in 18 months is how many will continue to withhold consent by not voting.
Labour seem to think that they can recruit more soft Tories with their "no policy" offer, than they will lose from low income and working class voters.

[danumdon]

I'm not sure how fixed in your thinking you have to be to see Labour overturn a 20,000 majority and conclude that this means Starmer is in trouble.

Just...weird.

Ill tell you what is weird,

At this stage of the electoral cycle, with what must now be on record as one of the most inept, corrupt and totally incompetent administrations ever to be witnessed on these shores, to have this advantage and not be able as the official opposition to react favourably to what in all intents is a total shambles. The Labour party have managed to get to a point where they can barely muster a very limp and uninspiring response to what should be the biggest own goal ever given to a political party.

So what do Labour have to do to enthuse the electorate to consider them to be ready and equipped to take on the leadership of this country?.

A damn sight more than what they have achieved according to these latest Bye elections.

To me it looks like this saga still has legs to run and i would imagine that in his most fearful of dreams Starmer would not have envisaged this kind of very lukewarm reaction that they have received.

Plenty of head scratching for Labour party big wigs, the next 18 months will not be classed as the best of times for this underachieving Labour Leadership. This will not be what they expected, very far from it.

The whiff of fear must be palpable in Labour HQ.

[Glyn_Wigley]

Aye, a tiny swing to Labour of only 23.7% in Selby has probably caused palpitations.

[danumdon]

So if a low turnout, protest vote or no vote at all swings your boat then fine, Im quite sure Labour will be looking at this particular constituency at the GE and seeing something quite different.

The mood music is not good and where Labour thought they would be, when you look at all three bye elections as a whole then Labour heads will be getting well and truly scratched.

If Labour can't make hay at a time like this then what happens when the going gets tough?

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

Labour's real problem is themselves. The Tories have totally messed things up but yet there's still a question mark around labour themselves for some.

They just have to avoid a huge own goal, do that and they win. Things like the ulez are an example of that so it's a good warning for them I'd say.  Saying that's coming to every town and city is worrying for many people.  It's really not a very left wing tax is it as it's the poorest who suffer.

This is one of the big challenges coming policy wise.  The green agenda needs to be paid for, how can that be done whilst still supporting the worse off in society?  Ulez zones to me don't do that.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure how fixed in your thinking you have to be to see Labour overturn a 20,000 majority and conclude that this means Starmer is in trouble.

Just...weird.

Ill tell you what is weird,

At this stage of the electoral cycle, with what must now be on record as one of the most inept, corrupt and totally incompetent administrations ever to be witnessed on these shores, to have this advantage and not be able as the official opposition to react favourably to what in all intents is a total shambles. The Labour party have managed to get to a point where they can barely muster a very limp and uninspiring response to what should be the biggest own goal ever given to a political party.

So what do Labour have to do to enthuse the electorate to consider them to be ready and equipped to take on the leadership of this country?.

A damn sight more than what they have achieved according to these latest Bye elections.

To me it looks like this saga still has legs to run and i would imagine that in his most fearful of dreams Starmer would not have envisaged this kind of very lukewarm reaction that they have received.

Plenty of head scratching for Labour party big wigs, the next 18 months will not be classed as the best of times for this underachieving Labour Leadership. This will not be what they expected, very far from it.

The whiff of fear must be palpable in Labour HQ.

DD

I genuinely don't get you.

Labour are consistently 20% ahead in the polls. That sort of lead, this close to an election, happens very rarely in politics. Once or twice since WWII.

They've just overturned a seat with a majority of 20,000. Again, between Con and Lab, that sort of change happens maybe once in a generation.

And you call this "limp".

Regardless of what you think about policies, what exactly would make you think Labour was doing well on the numbers.

[danumdon]

I'm not sure how fixed in your thinking you have to be to see Labour overturn a 20,000 majority and conclude that this means Starmer is in trouble.

Just...weird.

Ill tell you what is weird,

At this stage of the electoral cycle, with what must now be on record as one of the most inept, corrupt and totally incompetent administrations ever to be witnessed on these shores, to have this advantage and not be able as the official opposition to react favourably to what in all intents is a total shambles. The Labour party have managed to get to a point where they can barely muster a very limp and uninspiring response to what should be the biggest own goal ever given to a political party.

So what do Labour have to do to enthuse the electorate to consider them to be ready and equipped to take on the leadership of this country?.

A damn sight more than what they have achieved according to these latest Bye elections.

To me it looks like this saga still has legs to run and i would imagine that in his most fearful of dreams Starmer would not have envisaged this kind of very lukewarm reaction that they have received.

Plenty of head scratching for Labour party big wigs, the next 18 months will not be classed as the best of times for this underachieving Labour Leadership. This will not be what they expected, very far from it.

The whiff of fear must be palpable in Labour HQ.

DD

I genuinely don't get you.

Labour are consistently 20% ahead in the polls. That sort of lead, this close to an election, happens very rarely in politics. Once or twice since WWII.

They've just overturned a seat with a majority of 20,000. Again, between Con and Lab, that sort of change happens maybe once in a generation.

And you call this "limp".

Regardless of what you think about policies, what exactly would make you think Labour was doing well on the numbers.

BST, you keep quoting the Selby result, is this going to be typical at the next GE? we have all seen protest votes before, would you put your house on Labour being able to repeat that again in the GE, i know i wouldn't.

A 20% lead for Labour in the polls, we are talking about results against possibly the most inept governing party ever! if i was Starmer i'd of expected a better night on Thurs across the board, for a party expecting to wipe the floor at the next GE these results were not ground breaking, and will be giving many the impression that Labour should be so far ahead the betting should be suspended now, but that's not the case is it.

As it gets closer to the GE i've no doubt many Labour activists will be uneasy with progress across the board, there seems to me an air of suspicion around the party, in the rough and tumble of an election campaign proper this air of uncertainty will give all the lags something to bite into, i just don't get the impression that Starmer and his very safe and no committal policy will hold up.

And all this is whilst we have a gravely wounded and limping beast in government!

The optics just don't ring right for me, we will no doubt find out in due course but its not going to be the walkover it should be. I get the impression that the electorate don't want warmed up, stale and limp failed policies, regurgitated. What new and transformative path is Labour demonstrating ? i just don't see it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

DD

Do you want to point me to the last time a party came 160 seats behind the winners in a UK General Election and won the next one?

You are constantly ignoring all the historical precedents of just how hard it us to make the swing from the absolute mauling that Labour got in 2019 to where they are now.

There are plenty of examples of very poor Government performances which didn't lead to this level of swing.

In 1956, the Tory Govt took us into one of the biggest humiliations in our national history at Suez. They won the next election comfortably.

In 1974, the Heath Govt had totally lost control of the economy. Inflation was rocketing. We had the 3 day week and blackouts. Labour made only the most marginal gains at the next election.

In 1979, we'd just had the Winter of Discontent with bodies going unburied. Thatcher only got a 5% and a 56 seat swing.

As things currently stand, Labour is on target for a 15% swing and a 150 seat swing.

If you know your politics, you'll know that sort of thing happens maybe once every century. And yet you still think they are failing. I don't understand what you would consider to be success.

[tyke1962]

DD

Do you want to point me to the last time a party came 160 seats behind the winners in a UK General Election and won the next one?

You are constantly ignoring all the historical precedents of just how hard it us to make the swing from the absolute mauling that Labour got in 2019 to where they are now.

There are plenty of examples of very poor Government performances which didn't lead to this level of swing.

In 1956, the Tory Govt took us into one of the biggest humiliations in our national history at Suez. They won the next election comfortably.

In 1974, the Heath Govt had totally lost control of the economy. Inflation was rocketing. We had the 3 day week and blackouts. Labour made only the most marginal gains at the next election.

In 1979, we'd just had the Winter of Discontent with bodies going unburied. Thatcher only got a 5% and a 56 seat swing.

As things currently stand, Labour is on target for a 15% swing and a 150 seat swing.

If you know your politics, you'll know that sort of thing happens maybe once every century. And yet you still think they are failing. I don't understand what you would consider to be success.

How's about we can vote for some substance rather than a red rosette ?

Or is that too much to contemplate ? .

[albie]

Another day, another misdirection.
It makes no difference how election voting moved in the past, it is simply not relevant to a GE in late 2024.

The key variable will be the manipulation of social media feeds in the 3 month run up to the GE.
We know this from the Cambridge Analytica influence during brexit and the later GE.

Fixating on historic swings is a diversion from the real issues.
How many additional votes did a party add, and how persistent are those numbers from soft support through to a GE?
 
Depending upon turnout, and the prevalence of tactical voting, a binary swing is less likely in future elections.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm sure that word salad means something to you Albie, but I'll be honest, I haven't got a clue what you are on about. Beyond your insistence that nothing the current version of Labour does can be any good. And your refusal to engage with any data that goes against what you want to be true.

[scawsby steve]

BST, in precise words, what are the things that lead you to believe that Starmer will be a good Prime Minister?

[wilts rover]

Labour's real problem is themselves. The Tories have totally messed things up but yet there's still a question mark around labour themselves for some.

They just have to avoid a huge own goal, do that and they win. Things like the ulez are an example of that so it's a good warning for them I'd say.  Saying that's coming to every town and city is worrying for many people.  It's really not a very left wing tax is it as it's the poorest who suffer.

This is one of the big challenges coming policy wise.  The green agenda needs to be paid for, how can that be done whilst still supporting the worse off in society?  Ulez zones to me don't do that.

You are right BFYP.

ULEZ in London was a Tory idea (brought in by Johnson when he was mayor) to have cleaner air in London. It's extension to Uxbridge was a Tory idea (mandated by Shapps to Khan in order to get a government loan to keep the council running during covid) but it's what cost Labour the election.

The challenge for Labour is how to combat false impressions of their policies in the media. Because they will always get more criticism than the Tories by a Tory sympathetic press/media.

[ncRover]

I’m from Selby.

The young Labour lad did very well because outside of the town itself, it is a pretty standard rural conservative sort of constituency. Particularly the Tadcaster area with affluent villages around there. The boundary even extends to near Harrogate!

I know it was a low turnout but I never thought I’d see it become Labour. A Corbyn-led Labour would certainly not get a sniff in seats like this.

[scawsby steve]

I’m from Selby.

The young Labour lad did very well because outside of the town itself, it is a pretty standard rural conservative sort of constituency. Particularly the Tadcaster area with affluent villages around there. The boundary even extends to near Harrogate!

I know it was a low turnout but I never thought I’d see it become Labour. A Corbyn-led Labour would certainly not get a sniff in seats like this.

That last paragraph confirms what many of us suspect, NC. That Starmer's Labour Party is no different to the Tories.

[Iberian Red]

I’m from Selby.

The young Labour lad did very well because outside of the town itself, it is a pretty standard rural conservative sort of constituency. Particularly the Tadcaster area with affluent villages around there. The boundary even extends to near Harrogate!

I know it was a low turnout but I never thought I’d see it become Labour. A Corbyn-led Labour would certainly not get a sniff in seats like this.

That last paragraph confirms what many of us suspect, NC. That Starmer's Labour Party is no different to the Tories.

Who are these many of us?
Are you the spokesman for them?
Have you got any evidence?
Or is it just a few on the off topic that are more right wing than Stanley Matthews !

[BillyStubbsTears]

I’m from Selby.

The young Labour lad did very well because outside of the town itself, it is a pretty standard rural conservative sort of constituency. Particularly the Tadcaster area with affluent villages around there. The boundary even extends to near Harrogate!

I know it was a low turnout but I never thought I’d see it become Labour. A Corbyn-led Labour would certainly not get a sniff in seats like this.

That last paragraph confirms what many of us suspect, NC. That Starmer's Labour Party is no different to the Tories.

Nonsense.

There's something very fundamental about a FPTP democracy. You have to attract enough votes to get a majority if you want to be in power. That means reaching out to people beyond the committed core of your party. That's what Starmer is doing.

For the record, I think he is going TOO far, just as I think Blair did. But I'd rather have a compromising Labour party in power than an ideologically pure one in opposition.

Saying those compromises means they are no different to the Tories is lazy. But it's what those on both the Left and the Right who dislike the idea of a compromising Labour party in power will always say. Because it confirms what they want to be true.