Brexit deal

[wilts rover]

BST. I reckon the majority of the country end up f**ked off after every vote, through elected governments not carrying out promises.

In fear of repeating myself, I saw only two option on the voting slip. Leave and Remain. I understood it to mean we would either remain or leave immediately and perhaps discuss any future deals with the EU after we had left.

I'm 100% sure I wasn't the only one to think that.

100 percent Definately not the only person to think it, and it should have happened that way.
It's only certain MPs, and parts of the media that are trying to stop brexit that has made this whole process alot harder than it should be.

We should be out now, striking deals with the globe and not looking back.
The only way out is a no deal, but unfortunately it won't happen.

Right, let's take that proposition forward. We just 'leave' now. The very next day - how do you get goods, people, and money across the border to the EU?

Great solutions come out of necessity. Anyway
Do you think the EU would blockade any lorries and ships from the UK?

Why would the EU need to blockade, we would cause the chaos ourselves under WTO terms. According to the Road Haulage Industry this is what would happen:

As it stands, each haulier entering Britain will be required to submit a 40-field declaration form per consignment before travel.

“The form takes 10 minutes to fill out. If you take a large retailer who has 8,000 consignments [in one lorry], that would take 170 people eight hours to process one trailer,” said Richard Burnett, RHA chief executive.

“That is the worst-case scenario. But even if you took the average trailer which has 400 consignments per delivery, that would take nine people eight hours to process.”

“I can’t for the life of me see how this is going to work,” Burnett added, pointing out that 11,000 trucks a day use Dover, triple the amount pre-single market in 1993.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/dover-checks-would-take-eight-hours-per-lorry-in-no-deal-brexit

[Bentley Bullet]

Haven't food prices always risen?

eeer no. Past generations spent a much higher percentage of their income on food compared to what we do today and the wholesale cost of most foods has historically declined over centuries.

But in any case, what a ridiculous set of questions. Do you not get the concept of more or less? Why would you intentionally increase a problem regardless of what general level it stands at before?

"We've got no bog role, love"
"Haven't we been out of bog role for 6 hours?""
"Ya what?"

I'm not talking about what percentage of their income past generations spent on food. I'm saying food prices have risen over the years.

What I'm also saying is it is hardly a revelation that companies will go bust. companies will go bust if we stay in the EU.

Oh, and the country is less safe than it's ever been now, so it's hardly a great prophecy.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

A leak from Cabinet yesterday said that May's entire demeanour changed when she was told that No Deal would lead to the recomposition of Direct Rule in NI. They said that broke her and turned her against buttering up the ERG.

Might be bullshit to scare the ERG into falling into line, I dunno.

[wilts rover]

Nobody knows what will happen under any of the ridiculous number of different outcomes - not even the 'experts' who offer their wisdom on this forum, rather than in Westminster.

I'd rather level with no deal - and to hell with it, whatever happens, happens! Two World Wars didn't finish us, not joining the single currency didn't destroy our economy. Voting to leave didn't plunge us into recession. So who knows? The 'experts' might be right and it could be the worst thing we've done - or it could all be exaggerated and ultimately unravel as untrue scaremongering.

Then again, I'd rather Tony Blair had not allowed immigration numbers to be so high in the first place as then maybe 'Vote Remain' would have won, as you don't have to be Albert Einstein to work out that the mass flow of EU foreigners onto these shores made some folk vote to leave in the first place and gave the likes of Nigel Farage ammunition.

It's all a bloody great big mess!

Well we do know some of what would happen under no deal. Travel to Europe would be more expensive and time consuming, green cards, passport control, customs checks, health insurance, higher mobile phone costs and working there would be very difficult. Fine if you don't ever want to visit there but why would you want to make it more difficult in the future for young Brits to have the advantages you had?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No Rigo. Voting to leave didn't tip us into recession. But it has wiped £100bn off our economic output over the past two and a half years, according to two separate reports last week.

That's 100 infirmaries that we could have paid for, including the salaries of 500 nurses in each one. Or £6000 in tax cuts that we could have given every family in the country. Or 25 projects on the scale of Terminal 5 at Heathrow. Or it could have paid for HS3. Sixteen times over. Or, if you're a military type, 30 QE Class aircraft carriers. Or, if you're a driver, it would pay to replace the entire national motorway network.

That's what we've already lost before we've even left. Gone. Vanished.

That's the scale of the damage that we've inflicted upon ourselves just by the prospect of Brexit, before we even consider the carnage that No Deal would wreak.

I'm utterly bewildered how many people have the response, "Pfft...f**k it," when you put those numbers to them. Like it's just too much trouble to engage with them.

[The Red Baron]

TRB

A leak from Cabinet yesterday said that May's entire demeanour changed when she was told that No Deal would lead to the recomposition of Direct Rule in NI. They said that broke her and turned her against buttering up the ERG.

Might be bullshit to scare the ERG into falling into line, I dunno.

She won't butter them up any more. She will present them with the alternative that's been staring them in the face all along. Accept her deal, warts and all, or accept that Brexit won't happen.

The interventions from Mark Sedwill - which was strategically leaked - and from Mark Carney today (not leaked, in a public interview) are designed to show that No Deal is madness. That in itself doesn't bother the ERG, but it does bother Labour MPs who are desperate to avoid both No Deal and another referendum. As I said before, someone much smarter than May is driving this. The talks with Corbyn and the indicative votes are a sideshow. The Cooper Bill is a gift to May, and she'll use it to maximum advantage next week.

[Bentley Bullet]

BST. We can't blame the loss on leaving the EU because we haven't left yet, so what can we blame for the loss?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Jesus BB it's like a living death.

It's partly because of the PROSPECT of Brexit. It's because Brexiters is coming. So firms have changed their investment plans. Because after Brexit, whatever form of Brexit we have, the UK will be a less attractive place for firms to do business.

And it's partly because of the big hike in inflation that we had immediately after the vote, because the Pound fell immediately. Because the markets are expecting Britain to be poorer, relative to our competitors, than we would be if we didn't leave the EU. Inflation and currency depreciation that made the raw materials we buy more expensive.

Just like was predicted in would happen before the Referendum in 2016.

And if you respond with, yeah but Osborne said...I swear I will f**king well spontaneously combust.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Wow. The façade is collapsing.

https://mobile.twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1113549988598931456

https://mobile.twitter.com/Peston/status/1113548595591045123

[BillyStubbsTears]

Or maybe TRB is right and it's mind games with the ERG?

[The Red Baron]

Or maybe TRB is right and it's mind games with the ERG?

It is. And Labour MPs who are seen as biddable 

They have given up on the DUP. They won't move. What they need to move are the ERG (who fear No Brexit) and Labour back benchers in Leave seats who fear another referendum.

[Bentley Bullet]

Jesus BB it's like a living death.

It's partly because of the PROSPECT of Brexit. It's because Brexiters is coming. So firms have changed their investment plans. Because after Brexit, whatever form of Brexit we have, the UK will be a less attractive place for firms to do business.

And it's partly because of the big hike in inflation that we had immediately after the vote, because the Pound fell immediately. Because the markets are expecting Britain to be poorer, relative to our competitors, than we would be if we didn't leave the EU. Inflation and currency depreciation that made the raw materials we buy more expensive.

Just like was predicted in would happen before the Referendum in 2016.

And if you respond with, yeah but Osborne said...I swear I will f**king well spontaneously combust.

But the majority of the population welcomed the prospect of Brexit. My question to you is, once the expected initial reaction of uncertainty which caused the hike in inflation had settled down, would acceptance of the result by the bitter losers have created a more confident reaction from investors?

[BillyStubbsTears]

No BB. It wouldn't. Because the projected losses to our economy are nothing to do with acceptance or otherwise of the result by bitter losers. Nor are they to do with the idea that (as some have seriously suggested), remain supporters won't work as hard, because we want the economy to tank and our kids to be poorer, just to be proved right. (Funny, that, as I'm sat at my desk at 23:10, churning out yet more quotes for work...)

The projected losses are to do with simple, textbook economics. If you seriously want to look into this, you should read up on Gravity Trade Models. It's one of the best established areas of economics, and it basically says that trade is greatest between countries that are geographically close and rich. If you put up barriers between countries that are rich and close together you do less trade. You do less trade, your economy does worse. Your economy does worse, you don't end up as wealthy as you would otherwise have done. And no amount of replacement free trade deals with Palestine and the Faroe Islands will make up for the hit we'll take from doing less trade with Europe. Nor will any magic deals that we might do with China, USA and Japan, because they are a lot further away.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

So, because we're going to do less trade with Europe and going to be a lot less wealthy, companies don't see us as as good a place to invest as they did before 2016. So our economic growth has already taken a big hit.

If you're not interested in reading up on it, then I'm sure you won't be upset next time I suggest that folk grow up and treat this seriously.

[BillyStubbsTears]

TRB

I see your argument. But I keep coming back to my point, that, for a hard core of the ERG, this is not, and never has been about Europe. It's about staging a coup on the Tory party. As I keep saying, the very best outcome for them would be a defeated Brexit, with the likes of May and Hammond and Javid and Hunt etc all seen as responsible. Because that gives them the ammunition to kill off that wing of the Tory party and take over.

[SydneyRover]

Jesus BB it's like a living death.

It's partly because of the PROSPECT of Brexit. It's because Brexiters is coming. So firms have changed their investment plans. Because after Brexit, whatever form of Brexit we have, the UK will be a less attractive place for firms to do business.

And it's partly because of the big hike in inflation that we had immediately after the vote, because the Pound fell immediately. Because the markets are expecting Britain to be poorer, relative to our competitors, than we would be if we didn't leave the EU. Inflation and currency depreciation that made the raw materials we buy more expensive.

Just like was predicted in would happen before the Referendum in 2016.

And if you respond with, yeah but Osborne said...I swear I will f**king well spontaneously combust.

But the majority of the population welcomed the prospect of Brexit. My question to you is, once the expected initial reaction of uncertainty which caused the hike in inflation had settled down, would acceptance of the result by the bitter losers have created a more confident reaction from investors?

If I'd had to make a decision about the future of my business in the UK at any time over the last three years to move it to the UK, to expand it in the UK or even to close it BrexitCON would have seriously affected that decision.

[scawsby steve]

Another expert opinion to be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807801

Ah he sticks his oar in to tell us what we already know.
A no deal is a high possibility, and it won't be easy.
Thanks Mark

You complain when people use blunt language. Now you're complaining about Carney using very diplomatic language. He has to tread a very careful path to avoid appearing overtly politically partisan. So if he is saying this publicly, you can imagine what he considers to be the dangers associated with No Deal, or what he is saying in private.

If he says in public that claims that no deal could be easily managed are absolute nonsense, you can interpret that as him diplomatically saying it would be an utter f**king catastrophe.

Or you could ignore it and say that we survived The Blitz, The Plague and The Ice Ages, so we'll survive No Deal.

Oh aye. And you say he's sticking his oar in. This is the professional whose job it is to make sure our economy is protected against the worst that events can throw at it. And you think him commenting on the effect of Brexit is him sticking his oar in.

Serious question. Is there any possible contribution from anyone that would make you sit back and consider that you might be wrong on the seriousness of the consequences of No Deal?

And while we're at it, in your rush to suggest we meet, you didn't answer my other serious question last night, about how much you personally would be prepared to lose in order to take back control. That wasn't a bullying question or a trick or anything like that. It was genuine interest.

"avoid appearing overtly politically partisan"; Mark Carney? Are you having a laugh? F*ck me, he's more of a Remainer than you.

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS

Go on then. Give me an example of where he's been overtly politically partisan.

[scawsby steve]

SS

Go on then. Give me an example of where he's been overtly politically partisan.

It all depends on your opinion on what being overtly politically partisan means. Before the referendum, he publicly warned people against voting Brexit, in the same way that Obama came into our country and threatened us that if we voted Brexit, we'd go to the back of the queue for a trade deal.

I think you've got selective amnesia at times.

[SydneyRover]

This is the best example of being Covertly Partisan which needs to be addressed.

Facebook Brexit ads secretly run by staff of Lynton Crosby firm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/03/grassroots-facebook-brexit-ads-secretly-run-by-staff-of-lynton-crosby-firm

Oops nearly forgot  6,059,742 signatures

[BillyStubbsTears]

SS

No. He didn't. He, in his position as the man responsible for the stability of the national economy, stated that the  economic predictions of Brexiters were negative.

He didn't ever tell people how to vote.

[Filo]

It’s strange that some of the big guns in the cabinet are kicking off about her talking to Corbyn, but non have resigned, it all stinks of a trap to frame Corbyn for a bad deal in my opinion

[Glyn_Wigley]

SS

Go on then. Give me an example of where he's been overtly politically partisan.

It all depends on your opinion on what being overtly politically partisan means. Before the referendum, he publicly warned people against voting Brexit, in the same way that Obama came into our country and threatened us that if we voted Brexit, we'd go to the back of the queue for a trade deal.

I think you've got selective amnesia at times.

Apparently in your world doing his job properly equates to being 'overtly politically partisan', and advising becomes 'threatening'. If he was able to advise that Brexit was wonderful for the economy, would he still have been partisan?

Or do you think that perhaps the Governor of the Bank Of England, before a referendum that could possibly have a fundamental impact upon how the British economy performs, have told the electorate  nothing?

[Boomstick]

Another expert opinion to be ignored.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47807801

Ah he sticks his oar in to tell us what we already know.
A no deal is a high possibility, and it won't be easy.
Thanks Mark

You complain when people use blunt language. Now you're complaining about Carney using very diplomatic language. He has to tread a very careful path to avoid appearing overtly politically partisan. So if he is saying this publicly, you can imagine what he considers to be the dangers associated with No Deal, or what he is saying in private.

If he says in public that claims that no deal could be easily managed are absolute nonsense, you can interpret that as him diplomatically saying it would be an utter f**king catastrophe.

Or you could ignore it and say that we survived The Blitz, The Plague and The Ice Ages, so we'll survive No Deal.

Oh aye. And you say he's sticking his oar in. This is the professional whose job it is to make sure our economy is protected against the worst that events can throw at it. And you think him commenting on the effect of Brexit is him sticking his oar in.

Serious question. Is there any possible contribution from anyone that would make you sit back and consider that you might be wrong on the seriousness of the consequences of No Deal?

And while we're at it, in your rush to suggest we meet, you didn't answer my other serious question last night, about how much you personally would be prepared to lose in order to take back control. That wasn't a bullying question or a trick or anything like that. It was genuine interest.

Funny how he says the square mile will not be affected at all, funny how you neglect to mention that.
As for what I'm prepared to lose, or more accurately not gain. I'd prefer to wait and see, but it's an irrelevant question, I didn't vote leave for economic reasons, and economic reasons WILL NOT change my mind.

That offer to meet still stands, if you fancy crawling out from behind your keyboard.

[IDM]

You may not have voted for economic reasons, but economics will affect you if there is no deal.

If we are going to leave and honour the referendum (voted on principles not details) then it makes total sense to have a deal to thrash out the practicalities.??

[Boomstick]

You may not have voted for economic reasons, but economics will affect you if there is no deal.

If we are going to leave and honour the referendum (voted on principles not details) then it makes total sense to have a deal to thrash out the practicalities.??

Absolutely, I'd love for the country to get a good deal.
But likes been said before, no deal is better than a bad deal.

[SydneyRover]

You may not have voted for economic reasons, but economics will affect you if there is no deal.

If we are going to leave and honour the referendum (voted on principles not details) then it makes total sense to have a deal to thrash out the practicalities.??

Absolutely, I'd love for the country to get a good deal.
But likes been said before, no deal is better than a bad deal.

Fortunately for most No-Deal the worst possible result subject to the HoL is off the table, ''No-Deal is better than a bad deal'' is just hype from the brexitCON brigade, there is no worse deal than No-Deal and to show that you have done your homework BS you could explain to us within the realms of commonsense what a worse deal than No-Deal looks like.

[idler]

In the real world all problems are successfully solved eventually by negotiation. I've not seen one politician on the Brexit side convince me that they are capable of forming a group to solve this.
I voted leave because I didn't want a more federal Europe but from what I have seen in the last three years, I would rather now remain and fight for change from the inside.
I had some  remainers telling me I was xenophobic,racist or stupid.
I now have Brexiteers telling me that I knew exactly what I was voting for and we need a hard Brexit.
Like many more I never for a minute expected a chance of leaving without a negotiated deal of some sorts.

[Glyn_Wigley]

In the real world all problems are successfully solved eventually by negotiation. I've not seen one politician on the Brexit side convince me that they are capable of forming a group to solve this.
I voted leave because I didn't want a more federal Europe but from what I have seen in the last three years, I would rather now remain and fight for change from the inside.
I had some  remainers telling me I was xenophobic,racist or stupid.
I now have Brexiteers telling me that I knew exactly what I was voting for and we need a hard Brexit.
Like many more I never for a minute expected a chance of leaving without a negotiated deal of some sorts.

Was it maybe because something like this was what you listened to at the time, Idler?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1113547733300842497.html

[Axholme Lion]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6885363/MP-jailed-lying-speeding-case-helped-ram-Bill-stop-No-Deal-ONE-VOTE.html

Shouldn't even be allowed in parliament other than to clean the bogs and I wouldn't trust her doing that.

[MachoMadness]

I'm not clicking a Mail link, but I'm going to assume that article conveniently ignores the Brexiteer Tory MP who pleaded guilty to expenses fiddling who voted the other way. Although it's nice to see you finally care about fair and legal votes...