Coronavirus

[Bentley Bullet]

I don't know of anybody indicating the pandemic will soon be over. Booster jabs are deemed necessary in order to keep people protected.

[dickos1]

Does anyone actually read the ONS figures??  Infections are still increasing but slowing down as of last Fridays ONS statement release. Government Daily figures has little bearing on actual infections within the population.

The government stats are the number of new cases, the ONS stats are an estimate of the percentage of the population that are infected.
Two different sets of data

[KeithMyath]

Does anyone actually read the ONS figures??  Infections are still increasing but slowing down as of last Fridays ONS statement release. Government Daily figures has little bearing on actual infections within the population.

The government stats are the number of new cases, the ONS stats are an estimate of the percentage of the population that are infected.
Two different sets of data

Yes and no, both are data but only one is measurable. new cases of those tested, which can be manipulated in various ways… as apposed to an actual percentage of true infection rates from random samples.

I know and understand which one is the most important. Thankfully it looks like infection are slowing.

[bpoolrover]

Ons say numbers have fallen this week which is positive

[River Don]

Daily numbers back up on last week again. 2,000+ new infections. It's starting to look like the fall might have bottomed out.


And a member of Boris Johnsons staff has tested positive BUT Johnson says he is not going to self isolate despite having been seen in close proximity to this individual during his Scotland trip.

[ravenrover]

Have I missed this on the thread?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58112621.amp

[bpoolrover]

Good news is hospitalisations are coming down still

[SydneyRover]

''Britain’s Covid experts are under attack, but they are just doing their jobs''

''But the attacks on Ferguson'' (or anyone for that matter) ''often betray a fundamental misunderstanding of scientific modelling and, indeed, the way science works''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

If you stake a claim that is at the extreme end a number of times and it fails to happen you lose credibility.  It's understandable for people.to question modelling that is 60%+ different.

[SydneyRover]

If you stake a claim that is at the extreme end a number of times and it fails to happen you lose credibility.  It's understandable for people.to question modelling that is 60%+ different.

Why not point out which bits of the article you disagree with pud?

[bpoolrover]

''Britain’s Covid experts are under attack, but they are just doing their jobs''

''But the attacks on Ferguson'' (or anyone for that matter) ''often betray a fundamental misunderstanding of scientific modelling and, indeed, the way science works''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs

I agree it's unfair to criticise them as it's only a prediction, the issue I have is the same people only ever put the worst case links on this forum and the same people slate the ones that are more positive, for me I try find a balance of them all and you normally get somewhere close

[SydneyRover]

''Britain’s Covid experts are under attack, but they are just doing their jobs''

''But the attacks on Ferguson'' (or anyone for that matter) ''often betray a fundamental misunderstanding of scientific modelling and, indeed, the way science works''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs

I agree it's unfair to criticise them as it's only a prediction, the issue I have is the same people only ever put the worst case links on this forum and the same people slate the ones that are more positive, for me I try find a balance of them all and you normally get somewhere close

Scientist use modelling and the models change and progress it explains all that .........

''Critics of modelling often compare a big number from one model with the real-world outcome. They declare the models wrong when these two numbers look different. But if people look at the large number of models that have informed our response, they would see that the scientists have always cited a wide range of possible outcomes and emphasised the uncertainty''

[Bentley Bullet]

You can't go wrong with Airfix. I was brought up on it.

[SydneyRover]

You can't go wrong with Airfix. I was brought up on it.

sniffing glue half your life has not made you a better person aye?

[bpoolrover]

''Britain’s Covid experts are under attack, but they are just doing their jobs''

''But the attacks on Ferguson'' (or anyone for that matter) ''often betray a fundamental misunderstanding of scientific modelling and, indeed, the way science works''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/08/britains-covid-experts-neil-ferguson-sage-are-under-attack-but-they-are-just-doing-their-jobs

I agree it's unfair to criticise them as it's only a prediction, the issue I have is the same people only ever put the worst case links on this forum and the same people slate the ones that are more positive, for me I try find a balance of them all and you normally get somewhere close

Scientist use modelling and the models change and progress it explains all that .........

''Critics of modelling often compare a big number from one model with the real-world outcome. They declare the models wrong when these two numbers look different. But if people look at the large number of models that have informed our response, they would see that the scientists have always cited a wide range of possible outcomes and emphasised the uncertainty''

i agree but many on this forum have not cited possible outcomes they have only cited the worst outcome, schools should not open yet, shops should not open yet pubs clubs travel, and then when they are wrong they either vanish off the forum or say the modelling they have quoted for the last year and a half is possibly wrong

[SydneyRover]

But you can see where the confusion would come from bp where the government maintains it follows the science ..... except where it didn't or doesn't, commenters quote the scientists and others continue to quote the government even where the government has drifted away from the science.

[wilts rover]

As we are now allowed to compare covid stats - comparative graph of deaths per million of pop for selected countries - do the words 'herd immunity' resonate with anyone for a linking factor for those at the top

https://twitter.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1425768266664927237/photo/1

[SydneyRover]

Maybe we should move away from a letters based system?

[bpoolrover]

Excellent news about Blackpool’s economic recovery has been evidenced by research from the authoriative Centre for Cities in their latest high street recovery tracker (published 12th August, 2021).  Day-time footfall in Blackpool has risen to 120% of the town’s pre-pandemic average according the tracker report – placing the resort at number one in a list of the UKs largest 63 cities and towns. The UK average was about 50%. The Centre for Cities tracker uses anonymised mobile phone data to gauge the number of people in town and city centres at different times of day.

Blackpool’s night-time economy also came under close scrutiny. The Centre for Cities think-tank said night-time visits in the centres of the UK’s 63 largest cities and towns rose by just 16% after restrictions were eased on 19th  July. However, Blackpool also topped that list with a huge increase to 132% of its pre-lockdown average. Sydney while I can't find the exact post of how busy Blackpool was when I said it's been busier now than it had in 10 years, and you wanted proof while 10 years is not mentioned hopefully you will take my word that it is the case as it clearly shows how busy it is

[River Don]

One good thing to have come out of Covid is the nations tourist resorts like Blackpool are likely to have a boost. It looks like it may not be a one season wonder either, continuing uncertainty abroad means staycationing is going to be a safer option for a while.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

As we are now allowed to compare covid stats - comparative graph of deaths per million of pop for selected countries - do the words 'herd immunity' resonate with anyone for a linking factor for those at the top

https://twitter.com/AndrewPRLevi/status/1425768266664927237/photo/1

I get the point, but you can't statistically produce a chart and select only certain countries and claim an outcome.  The guy starts to do that in his thread but you can't just not include countries or talk about other factors.  It would be like claiming rovers have much better away support than sheff Wednesday based on the % of our fanbase that travelled there compared to what they'll bring here.  Absolutely stupid.

[bpoolrover]

One good thing to have come out of Covid is the nations tourist resorts like Blackpool are likely to have a boost. It looks like it may not be a one season wonder either, continuing uncertainty abroad means staycationing is going to be a safer option for a while.

im not sure safer Cornwall is really overcrowded at the minute, if you were to go to Tenerife say it is much easier to social distance unless of course you mean about going on red lists ect. Then I agree with you

[bpoolrover]

Are we now at the level which of course is very sad but acceptable, there are very few posts now on this topic so unless a new variant comes is this what we put up with?

[scawsby steve]

Are we now at the level which of course is very sad but acceptable, there are very few posts now on this topic so unless a new variant comes is this what we put up with?

Judging by the way those trams coming away from Hillsborough were packed like cans of sardines, with virtually no-one wearing a mask, I'd say we're definitely at an acceptable point.

Of course we don't yet know if there'll be any consequences of all that.

[drfchound]

Hindsight will let us know SS, as is often the case.

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK, so I've kept my mouth shut on this thread since I clearly got the prediction of what was going to happen at the back end of July wrong. Hands up. It happens.

Now we are a month down the line, there's something very odd emerging from the data. From 15th-30th July, there was a drop of nearly 50% in the weekly running average of new positive test results (fell from 47k to 25k in that fortnight).

That's long enough ago that we should by now have seen a similar drop in hospital cases and deaths.

We haven't.

The 7 day running average of COVID numbers in hospital peaked at 6,027 on 30 July. It then dropped by a couple of hundred over the next week or so, but is back up 5980 today. Today's specific daily number of the people in hospital with COVID are the highest they have been since 17 March.

For COVID deaths, the weekly average never fell at all. You expect the trend in deaths to map the trend in new positive cases with a delay of about three weeks. Sure enough, after the new cases suddenly started dropping on 16 July, after weeks of rapid increases, the daily deaths kept on rising sharply until 6-7 August. Exactly as you'd expect. But they then didn't exhibit the massive fall in new cases over the next fortnight. Instead, the 7 day average deaths rate has gone up from 85 on 6 August to 93 today. And today we have seen the highest daily reported death figure (170) since early March.

Still (thankfully) relatively small numbers (if you think the equivalent of a full passenger load of a 747 dying every 3-4 days is small). But it's one to keep an eye on, now that new daily cases are back on an upward path. With schools and universities re-opening in the next month and the end of summer weather pushing more people back indoors, there's a decent possibility that we haven't seen the worst yet.

[Bentley Bullet]

Could it be that the drop in cases over that period was down to the holiday season and therefore fewer cases of both adults and schoolkids falsely claiming to have Covid?

[BillyStubbsTears]

That misanthropic view of society might be right if the new positive cases numbers were based on people CLAIMING to have COVID, rather than people actually testing positive.

So probably not, eh?

[Bentley Bullet]

Do you have to show positive tests to be off work/school?

Probably not, eh?

[BillyStubbsTears]

We definitely had a spike in numbers from ~5-15 July. (h/t RD for spotting that). That was followed by an equally sharp dip from 16-30 July. If that was a genuine increase and decrease, it is very odd that the hospital cases and deaths haven't shown a similar rollercoaster over the subsequent 2-3 weeks. My best guess is that neither the spike nor the drop in new positive tests were "real", in that they didn't reflect a genuine spike and drop in actual new infections.

The hospital and deaths numbers, together with the sudden end in the fall of new positive cases and a subsequent slow rise since the end of July make it hard to argue anything other than that the actual new infections were broadly flat from mid-to-late July before starting to rise again. Which of course is miles better than the continued surge that was being predicted. But it does mean that we are certainly not out of the woods yet.