Coronavirus

[Bristol Red Rover]

1) The suicide rate was significantly lower in 2020 than it was in the previous two years.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsfromsuicidethatoccurredinenglandandwales/apriltodecember2020#suicide-rates-and-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic

But...facts, eh?

.........

3) As I've said to Ldr, before you suggest that I'm deliberately being misleading, go and have a look at the ONS numbers of excess deaths, and when they rose and fell compared to the rise and fall of COVID cases. Then come back and tell me how that fits with your insistence that I'm wrong.

I'm not doubting covid is nasty - I've seen it lots through work, and had it Feb 2020 and April 2022. But we're living with it.

No doubt some suicides were classed as covid, I haven't examined those figures, but I'm talking about a raft of factors. There were a lot of reasons why deaths were increased beyond people "dying of covid". You know this. Also including the "dry timber" which accounts for a great many.

200k is inaccurate.

[Panda]

Many doctors can't be trusted. They have their own agendas and are corrupt. This idea that the NHS is staffed by wonderful, careful doctors and nurses is laughable. A lot of them are amazing but there are a significant number who need to find other jobs and stop gaslighting.

I made a complaint recently about a hospital who did not provide me with the reasonable adjustments i  had provided to them beforehand and asked for.

I recorded the whole visit on my phone because i know from previous experience that they gang together and lie and then say the CCTV footage is not available. The nurse claimed that she came up to me when i entered the hospital and talked to me about my adjustments and that she offered me them at the time.

My recording proves different. They are currently being prosecuted although the courts are backed up so it could take some considerable time.

There are some conniving people within the NHS and more than you'd think and so i always record secretly every appointment i have so that i prove what happened and prove the lying docs and nurses wrong when their version of events is a pack of lies.

I don't trust anyone. Especially in the NHS. Yet people believe them blindly about all things Covid lol. It's hilarious. The NHS lie and manipulate to suit their agenda. They are just like everyone else.

[TommyC]

2) Run it by me how you would have protected the vulnerable while letting the rest of us get on with life as normal. Only I heard that no end of times, but never heard any detail about how it works in practice.

Vulnerable are advised to order shopping online, meet up with as few people as possible, isolate ideally, anyone who is coming into care contact with them needs testing first.

Where is the problem?

That was sort of how I saw it working too. The workforce in our firm are all fit and healthy and under 40 (just) and I kept coming into the office throughout the lockdowns to find it full with no social distancing in place despite us telling them to stay at home and adhere to the rules. We actively had to send people home and reiterate the rules to them on an almost weekly basis. We had to threaten disciplinary proceedings at one point if people didn't start taking it seriously and staying at home. They all wanted to be out of the house and in the office, some of them coming up with the most trivial excuses to be there. It was heartening in some ways that our staff were the opposite of the workshy feckless "home-working" freeloaders that generation Z is sometimes portrayed as. There is no reason at all why those people like our staff (me included), who were fit and healthy and more relaxed about the seriousness of the virus shouldn't have been allowed to get about our business. There was and always should have been the mechanism whereby people could stay at home or self-isolate if their personal circumstances or their personal attitude to the risk of the virus meant that is what they wanted to do. But those of us with no health conditions and a laid back attitude to the virus should have been allowed to get about our business and keep the bloody economy going instead of paying people to sit at home.

Even our elected politicians knew by 2021 it was a load of cobblers for anyone reasonably fit and healthy, as evidenced by their own flagrant disregard for the rules. To all the hand-wringers so offended by how Johnson, Starmer, Cummings etc disregarded the rules, I agree their behaviour was disgraceful. But there is a small part of me wants to say "more fool you for buying it".

[BillyStubbsTears]

Billy I don’t think in this case you are deliberately misleading, more possibly Making leaps of faith without considering all the variables that’s all. One cannot argue the excess death figure nor can one attribute 100% of it to one thing without evidence. I understand your logic but stand by what I say. It’s an (however likely) assumption without the evidence to back it up. Therefore you can’t legitimately state it as a fact that’s all I am trying to get across.

See this graph and tell me that, before the vaccine programme took effect from Month 10 (JAn 21) the excess deaths weren't pretty much in lockstep with the COVID cases.
(NB: Because testing was so limited in early months, it's fully known that we were only recording a tiny fraction of the actual cases. I've multipled the actual case numbers by 30 for the first few months to reflect this. Doesn't change the story which is that when case numbers went up or down, excess deaths followed them up or down. This multiplication just shows it more clearly).

[Ldr]

Again, “in lockstep” is not concrete evidence. It’s your appraisal. You cannot state it as fact. I am struggling as to why someone as intelligent as you is picking this hill to die on?

[Panda]

Vaccine may have not been responsible for lower deaths. Natural immunity may be. In the early days more people died and as the virus settled less people died and immunity was responsible for the lower deaths as the pandemic progressed. Not the vaccines, which i doubt work for most people anyway.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr.

No-one is claiming that COVID was responsible for precisely 100% of the excess deaths. There are far too many variables to make that assertion.

For the record, my best estimate is that there were significantly more COVID deaths in 20-21 than there were excess deaths. Because we know that death rates from a range of causes actually fell during the lockdowns, including suicides, deaths from drunken violence, road deaths and flu deaths because lockdowns effectively stopped a flu outbreak in winter 20-21. So the fact that we had a huge number of excess deaths even despite those falls means that SOMETHING caused a very, very high number of deaths over and above what we would normally expect.

With that background, the fact that the excess deaths occurred pretty much precisely when COVID cases were out of control is massive first order evidence. Those who claim that excess deaths in 20-21 were mainly or even minorly due to knock on effects of lockdown like missed hospital appointments need to explain why the excess death rise and fall pretty much exactly match the COVID rise and fall. And  you cannot possibly find an argument to support that without assuming that a)the shortfall in hospital appointments rose and fell pretty much exactly with COVID cases and b) the missed hospital appointments led directly to tens of thousands of people dying within a week or two. That is simply not credible.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Vaccine may have not been responsible for lower deaths. Natural immunity may be. In the early days more people died and as the virus settled less people died and immunity was responsible for the lower deaths as the pandemic progressed. Not the vaccines, which i doubt work for most people anyway.

In which case it is a huge coincidence that across the world, Infection Fatality Rates dropped off a cliff once vaccination programmes started. You're suggested causes and effects that you personally want to be correct, while totally refusing to engage with the massive amount of easily available evidence that says you're flat wrong.

[Ldr]

Ldr.

No-one is claiming that COVID was responsible for precisely 100% of the excess deaths. There are far too many variables to make that assertion.

For the record, my best estimate is that there were significantly more COVID deaths in 20-21 than there were excess deaths. Because we know that death rates from a range of causes actually fell during the lockdowns, including suicides, deaths from drunken violence, road deaths and flu deaths because lockdowns effectively stopped a flu outbreak in winter 20-21. So the fact that we had a huge number of excess deaths even despite those falls means that SOMETHING caused a very, very high number of deaths over and above what we would normally expect.

With that background, the fact that the excess deaths occurred pretty much precisely when COVID cases were out of control is massive first order evidence. Those who claim that excess deaths in 20-21 were mainly or even minorly due to knock on effects of lockdown like missed hospital appointments need to explain why the excess death rise and fall pretty much exactly match the COVID rise and fall. And  you cannot possibly find an argument to support that without assuming that a)the shortfall in hospital appointments rose and fell pretty much exactly with COVID cases and b) the missed hospital appointments led directly to tens of thousands of people dying within a week or two. That is simply not credible.

Much better my friend, I can agree with that

[Panda]

Vaccine may have not been responsible for lower deaths. Natural immunity may be. In the early days more people died and as the virus settled less people died and immunity was responsible for the lower deaths as the pandemic progressed. Not the vaccines, which i doubt work for most people anyway.

In which case it is a huge coincidence that across the world, Infection Fatality Rates dropped off a cliff once vaccination programmes started. You're suggested causes and effects that you personally want to be correct, while totally refusing to engage with the massive amount of easily available evidence that says you're flat wrong.

What about the poorer countries whose population didn't get access to much of the vaccines? I didn't see their population density taking a smashing via Covid deaths. This is because for most people, their immune system works properly and a vaccine isn't needed.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Vaccine may have not been responsible for lower deaths. Natural immunity may be. In the early days more people died and as the virus settled less people died and immunity was responsible for the lower deaths as the pandemic progressed. Not the vaccines, which i doubt work for most people anyway.

In which case it is a huge coincidence that across the world, Infection Fatality Rates dropped off a cliff once vaccination programmes started. You're suggested causes and effects that you personally want to be correct, while totally refusing to engage with the massive amount of easily available evidence that says you're flat wrong.

What about the poorer countries whose population didn't get access to much of the vaccines? I didn't see their population density taking a smashing via Covid deaths. This is because for most people, their immune system works properly and a vaccine isn't needed.

There is always a pay off between the adverse effects of vaccines and the beneficial ones. Nowhere is this accounted.

I have seen a tendancy for vaccinated people to have a more gentle acute symptom response to covid - ie less acute deaths. What isn't measured is the effect of vaccines on the long term effects of covid, or how the virus effect gets perverted and the results of this short, medium and long term.

So I do think that short term, vaccines will tend to reduce acute covid hospital admissions but beyond that is very unclear.

On top of that is the adverse effects of the vaccine, widely documented, rarely referred to. Obviously that isn't in the interests of mainstream medicine, governement policies to get vacc rates high, nor the pharma corporate interests.

Interesting that recorded covid deaths appear to be overall less since the widespread use of the vaccine, as that hasn't happened with most if any, vaccine used through history. Although the stats being done on this one are far more intense than ever previously. And still the overall picture is to be assessed.

[Nudga]

So we've got gardening, making your bed, falling asleep watching TV, referees whistles and now......drinking milkshakes.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1657457/blood-clots-risk-high-fat-milkshake-heart-attack



Anything but the clotshot.

More drinks that can cause blood clots.

https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1660882/blood-clots-risk-energy-drinks-signs

Not the clotshot though

[Panda]

Ok. Hands up. Whose up for the latest vaccine? Which now isn't called a booster anymore but an 'updated vaccine'. Sounds a lot better doesn't it?

This particular 'updated vaccine' is manufactured by Moderna, so yet another new maker and it is still under emergency authorisation use until next year.

It is a 'newly approved, next generation' vaccine according to Amanda Pritchard, the latest unmedically qualified mouthpiece Chief Exec of the NHS and she says that we need it to ensure that we have 'maximum protection' and that it is 'the best way to protect yourselves and your loved ones'.

This new bivalent vaccine that has no long term safety data and now it seems can be rolled out willy nilly simply because it is labelled as Covid vaccine, is waiting for you folks at a GP surgery near you! If you can find one that is open of course.

Meanwhile the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) are the latest publication to have a team of researchers claim that the mRNA vaccine actually damages immunity and promotes tumorigenesis. Something some of us already had considered over a year ago. No medical training required.

In the last 8 months since the roll out of the boosters my family alone has seen 2 deaths of older people whose well controlled existing conditions suddenly nosedived, a terminal cancer diagnosis of a young kid who was in remission for years and two older people including my mum who has barely visited the hospital in 73 years needing almost regular scans for some unexpected symptoms.

My mum at 73 is not taking the risk this time around with the booster and she would rather take her chances with the virus. There are many others in her circle of friends of a similar age shunning the latest booste..............................sorry, updated vaccine.

[River Don]

It's a new vaccine because it targets omicron, so it is different to the boosters which were just more of the same Covid vacinne.

[wilts rover]

I am. As I have written in this thread a couple of times I caught a very nasty virus just before covid was officially declared that has involved brain scans, two trips in an ambulance and ongoing side effects three years later.

Good luck to you are your family but you dont want what I have - believe me.

[ncRover]

New to this thread.

Covid very nasty in the initial and delta forms - we lost a family member to it. Vaccines very important here.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Are people noticing Shingles is about a lot more? Purely anecdotal from me by the way.

[River Don]

New to this thread.

Covid very nasty in the initial and delta forms - we lost a family member to it. Vaccines very important here.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Are people noticing Shingles is about a lot more? Purely anecdotal from me by the way.

Polio detected in London and appearing in the US too. Almost certainly coincidental.

I think what's happening is the media are now looking for virus scare stories. The next Covid.

[BillyStubbsTears]

New to this thread.

Covid very nasty in the initial and delta forms - we lost a family member to it. Vaccines very important here.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Are people noticing Shingles is about a lot more? Purely anecdotal from me by the way.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Point of fact. There is absolutely no evolutionary drive to make COVID become less deadly. That's because it take a long time between Infection - Symptom - Death. In simple terms, by the time COVID has killed someone, the virus has already spread to several other people. So a strain of COVID that is less deadly has pretty much zero evolutionary advantage over a more deadly strain.

We got lucky. Omicron was much more transmissible that the original variants and just happened to be less deadly. Didn't have to turn out like that though, and there's no guarantee that future variants won't be more deadly.

As for Omicron being "no worse than anything else" I personally had "something else" as a very fit 40 year old. I caught flu and I never, ever want to have it again. It left me permanently weaker than I had been and at its worst made me understand how people can die from it. If Omicron infections could be remotely like that, I would take pretty much anything that protected me from it. Which is why I'll be taking the new jab when it comes round.

[River Don]

Spanish flu took a very nasty turn before it was done, the worst turn in fact, it's foolish to think we are out of the woods yet.

There is a biological reason why virus tend to become less dangerous though, they are simply more succesful if they don't affect the host much, spreading more easily. The most succesful virus will be highly transmissible but much less deadly.

[Bristol Red Rover]

I am. As I have written in this thread a couple of times I caught a very nasty virus just before covid was officially declared that has involved brain scans, two trips in an ambulance and ongoing side effects three years later.

Good luck to you are your family but you dont want what I have - believe me.

Whilst I'm so sorry you experienced that. You could have also experieced the effects of the vaccine to a minor or gross or death level. You could also have experienced the first time effects of the vrus on top of the vaccine - likely worst than if you had already had the virus.

People are likely to suffer no matter what decision they make. I think it finally boils down to how we choose to live our lives in the face of inevitable danger.

[Bristol Red Rover]

Point of fact. There is absolutely no evolutionary drive to make COVID become less deadly. That's because it take a long time between Infection - Symptom - Death. In simple terms, by the time COVID has killed someone, the virus has already spread to several other people. So a strain of COVID that is less deadly has pretty much zero evolutionary advantage over a more deadly strain.

Not neary a "fact", At best an opinion basic on a lack of logic. An opinion promoting irrational fear of a virus.

Covid is likely to spread more when it's taken hold of someone, when they are symptomatic rather than asymptomatic. The problem there is that person is likely to be laying in a bed with minimal contact from others. If the symptoms were milder, they would be more likely to be out ad about, hence spreading it more.

eg:  https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-022-07440-0

[ncRover]

New to this thread.

Covid very nasty in the initial and delta forms - we lost a family member to it. Vaccines very important here.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Are people noticing Shingles is about a lot more? Purely anecdotal from me by the way.

Omicron. No worse than anything else. Follows the usual virus evolution of becoming less deadly so that it spreads easier. Vaccines now no net gain over side effects to vast majority of population

Point of fact. There is absolutely no evolutionary drive to make COVID become less deadly. That's because it take a long time between Infection - Symptom - Death. In simple terms, by the time COVID has killed someone, the virus has already spread to several other people. So a strain of COVID that is less deadly has pretty much zero evolutionary advantage over a more deadly strain.

We got lucky. Omicron was much more transmissible that the original variants and just happened to be less deadly. Didn't have to turn out like that though, and there's no guarantee that future variants won't be more deadly.

As for Omicron being "no worse than anything else" I personally had "something else" as a very fit 40 year old. I caught flu and I never, ever want to have it again. It left me permanently weaker than I had been and at its worst made me understand how people can die from it. If Omicron infections could be remotely like that, I would take pretty much anything that protected me from it. Which is why I'll be taking the new jab when it comes round.

In the shorter term that evolutionary drive is to become more transmissible (along with increasing natural immunity in the population). If it kills more hosts it can’t do that. If you have milder symptoms you go out and spread it. Please prove otherwise if you can.

Yes it might come back bad in 40/50 years but that’s what viruses do (see flu pandemics). The world keeps spinning.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Here's a simple explainer.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story%3fid=82052581

More detailed academic studies available if you prefer.

As a matter of principle, I do try not to sound off on stuff without decent evidence.

[ncRover]

Here's a simple explainer.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story%3fid=82052581

More detailed academic studies available if you prefer.

As a matter of principle, I do try not to sound off on stuff without decent evidence.

“In some cases, viruses evolve to become more virulent.” Such as…

[BillyStubbsTears]

HIV for one.

[Nudga]

How come when I got covid, I felt a bit shit for a few days, had one day off work and was back to my normal self afters couple of weeks (zero jabs) my three kids (zero jabs) didn't catch it at all.
My missus (3 jabs) got it a month after me and she had the same symptoms as me.

[ncRover]

HIV for one.

Fair enough, I didn’t know that.

Any examples of respiratory viruses?

[ncRover]

How come when I got covid, I felt a bit shit for a few days, had one day off work and was back to my normal self afters couple of weeks (zero jabs) my three kids (zero jabs) didn't catch it at all.
My missus (3 jabs) got it a month after me and she had the same symptoms as me.

Because her jab was designed for a virus that no longer exists.

[BillyStubbsTears]

HIV for one.

Fair enough, I didn’t know that.

Any examples of respiratory viruses?

I've seen some evidence that the virulence of Ebola increased over time but I don't know if that's nailed on.

[ncRover]

HIV for one.

Fair enough, I didn’t know that.

Any examples of respiratory viruses?

I've seen some evidence that the virulence of Ebola increased over time but I don't know if that's nailed on.

Not a respiratory virus