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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 542132 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14700 on December 01, 2021, 11:43:38 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Why do I need a vaccine if you've had yours?
I have a robust immune system.

I think we've been going round the houses on here enough to know that this is now a futile point of debate. If others cannot accept that the vaccine does not stop the spread, only perhaps reduces it slightly, then it is best to leave it at that. A vaccine that did this would give their argument much stronger traction and then they might have a valid point.



Reducing the spread slightly is the whole point. Which is why we should all wear masks, even if they only reduce transmission by 10%.

The problem is that people don't understand exponential growth.

If cases double every week normally, but you take actions that drop transmission by just 10%, after 2 months, the total number of infections is reduced by nearly 65%.

Little bits make massive differences over time when you are dealing with exponential growth.



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ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14701 on December 02, 2021, 09:45:32 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »
On masks then.

Why is it that infections have been consistently high in countries like Wales and Scotland and other countries across Europe despite them having had permanent mask wearing mandates?

In particular Austria who by law have to wear the respirator types of mask and yet they have gone into another lockdown.

What are the reasons for this if masks do what they are supposed to?

Will you say that, if it weren't for masks then infections in those countries would have been 10% higher (your figure Billy) and therefore, that is a good thing and so justifying that masks are an important tool in stopping infections?

In addition, we cannot wear masks forever. So when do we decide to stop wearing them?

We also didn't wear masks from July to now and infections have been steady. Up and down but stable.

Also, the compliance in mask wearing these past few days in the shops i've been in has been at about 95% since the mandate was brought back in again.

These are the same people who mostly haven't been wearing masks for months. So why did they stop wearing them after July if they cared so much about stopping the spread and cared so much about other people? After all, the virus did not go away after July and it was still with us before the Government brought back the mask mandate a few days ago.

At what point do we accept that trying to stop the spread of the virus is normal and thus rely on vaccines?

Why didn't you or others wear a mask before Covid to protect others from flu, which is a virus that kills thousands every year?

Lots of questions but you can see the issue i have with trying to process and make sense of many aspects of this recent 'you must wear a mask' phenomena that is relentlessly pushed by many.




« Last Edit: December 02, 2021, 09:48:28 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14702 on December 02, 2021, 01:26:24 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Because masks are only one part.

The question to ask is: how bad would they have had it WITHOUT masks?

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14703 on December 02, 2021, 01:47:16 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Because masks are only one part.

The question to ask is: how bad would they have had it WITHOUT masks?

Aye but on masks for now. You haven't answered any of my questions, which i feel are reasonable to ask.

A lack of answers from the powers that be and many members of the public, other than 'it's the right thing to do' or 'if it helps a bit' is the reason why i am sceptical about masks. Without information and consistency, it is difficult to understand why masks are required.

For example, if masks were imperative, then why did the Government not just remandate them with immediate effect? Why wait until Tuesday? Why is it compulsory to wear a face mask in Tesco but not if i go to the theatre, then pub, then nightclub when the likelihood of passing on the virus is hugely increased? It makes no sense and just makes it look like it is just tokenism and not done for actual public health benefit.



« Last Edit: December 02, 2021, 01:51:58 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14704 on December 02, 2021, 02:13:08 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You're asking me to get inside Johnson's head...

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14705 on December 02, 2021, 02:17:49 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
You're asking me to get inside Johnson's head...

Haha i guess that's a fair point. But my other questions such as high infection rates in Austria etc despite the mandating of FFP3 respirators etc?

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14706 on December 02, 2021, 06:26:40 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Every coronavirus in existence gradually becomes weaker over time, not more deadly. So why all the panic over this new variant? Unless they know it is a man made virus?

Sprotyrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14707 on December 02, 2021, 07:11:14 pm by Sprotyrover »
Germany is going to make vaccinations compulsory in the new year, also by 14 th December the only places that unvaccinated people will be allows to attend are. Hemists and food shops. That's 12 million people.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14708 on December 02, 2021, 07:20:01 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Germany is going to make vaccinations compulsory in the new year, also by 14 th December the only places that unvaccinated people will be allows to attend are. Hemists and food shops. That's 12 million people.

Love to see the hit on the economy that will have. Excluding 12 million people from society will cost businesses.

I really don't get people though. These 12 million people have all the power. Just say they all decided to not go to work for a week in protest. The country would come to a standstill.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14709 on December 02, 2021, 07:38:52 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You're asking me to get inside Johnson's head...

Haha i guess that's a fair point. But my other questions such as high infection rates in Austria etc despite the mandating of FFP3 respirators etc?

Because it is a highly complex problem.

There isn't a golden bullet solution. You need to stack the odds in your favour by doing as many mitigating things as required.  Austria has a shockingly low vaccination rate so it is already handicapped. As I say, the question shouldn't be "Why haven't masks solved the problem?" It is "How much worse would the problem be without masks?"

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14710 on December 02, 2021, 08:06:18 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
You're asking me to get inside Johnson's head...

Haha i guess that's a fair point. But my other questions such as high infection rates in Austria etc despite the mandating of FFP3 respirators etc?

Because it is a highly complex problem.

There isn't a golden bullet solution. You need to stack the odds in your favour by doing as many mitigating things as required.  Austria has a shockingly low vaccination rate so it is already handicapped. As I say, the question shouldn't be "Why haven't masks solved the problem?" It is "How much worse would the problem be without masks?"

10% worse. Meaning it isn't worth doing forever for those small margins.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14711 on December 02, 2021, 08:23:31 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
The NHS vaccination adverts for kids vaccines claimed that to keep kids at school they should have their covid vaccines. Yet reports are that anyone being identified as a close contact of someone with Omicron or anyone with Omicron has to isolate even if they are vaccinated.

So a child can be jabbed and yet still have to be off school again for 10 days. The pingdemic returns?
« Last Edit: December 02, 2021, 08:35:26 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14712 on December 02, 2021, 09:02:19 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
You're asking me to get inside Johnson's head...

Haha i guess that's a fair point. But my other questions such as high infection rates in Austria etc despite the mandating of FFP3 respirators etc?

Because it is a highly complex problem.

There isn't a golden bullet solution. You need to stack the odds in your favour by doing as many mitigating things as required.  Austria has a shockingly low vaccination rate so it is already handicapped. As I say, the question shouldn't be "Why haven't masks solved the problem?" It is "How much worse would the problem be without masks?"

10% worse. Meaning it isn't worth doing forever for those small margins.

It truly is like talking to a brick wall.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14713 on December 02, 2021, 09:06:07 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
If you're really interested in learning about this, stop typing, pick up a calculator and enter 0.9x0.9x0.9 a few times and look at the result.

Then stop and think about what you just said.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14714 on December 02, 2021, 10:49:22 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This is why we should be concerned about Omicron.

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1466480113487392769?t=Z7G9d6QWPUD8kuRn6bQAXA

Big question for us is: what  will it do in a mostly vaccinated population?

We can get a handle on that in s few weeks. Meantime it would be madness not to take this very seriously. If the vaccines protect us, then we've lost nowt but a few weeks of being cautious.

If the vaccines don't protect us and we are careless now, the winter is going to be a disaster.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14715 on December 02, 2021, 11:42:48 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Or we might be ok.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14716 on December 03, 2021, 12:01:56 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Yes, we might. In which case we've lost nothing more than a bit of care for a few weeks.

It's about balancing risk, not closing your eyes and hoping for the best.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14717 on December 03, 2021, 07:58:47 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Yes, we might. In which case we've lost nothing more than a bit of care for a few weeks.

It's about balancing risk, not closing your eyes and hoping for the best.

Then the next scariant that they decide should be made public unnecessarily? How many more times can they cry wolf?

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14718 on December 03, 2021, 11:32:28 pm by Nudga »

BVB

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14719 on December 03, 2021, 11:47:30 pm by BVB »
465 cases out of 50,000,000.

0.00093%.

It’s a conspiracy.

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14720 on December 03, 2021, 11:49:13 pm by Nudga »
« Last Edit: December 04, 2021, 12:18:51 am by Nudga »

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14721 on December 04, 2021, 07:53:53 am by BigH »
CDH notes Austria as having a high incidence/standard of maskwearing but still suffering high infection rates.

Austria's problem is that vaccination take-up has been low. Hence the surge in infections which has resulted in a lockdown and, from February, mandatory vaccination.

This is where ignorance of the problem leads. Namely, extreme measures like lockdowns - which ***k up the economy and peoples mental health - and having to compel people by law to get jabbed.

Is wearing a bit of cloth across your mouth in a supermarket really such a hardship?

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14722 on December 04, 2021, 09:25:55 am by ColinDouglasHandshake »
CDH notes Austria as having a high incidence/standard of maskwearing but still suffering high infection rates.

Austria's problem is that vaccination take-up has been low. Hence the surge in infections which has resulted in a lockdown and, from February, mandatory vaccination.

This is where ignorance of the problem leads. Namely, extreme measures like lockdowns - which ***k up the economy and peoples mental health - and having to compel people by law to get jabbed.

Is wearing a bit of cloth across your mouth in a supermarket really such a hardship?

Yes but what i think you are saying here is that the masks that the Austrians have been wearing don't work as they are still spreading and getting Covid, despite some of the most stringent measures. Infections aren't the problem. Hospitalisations are and according the the NHS data, most of our hospitals are currently running at about 5% beds with Covid patients.

BigH

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14723 on December 04, 2021, 11:44:20 am by BigH »
No, I'm saying that we are at a stage where all incremental measures need to be considered because we are at a dangerous point in the cycle. We know this from last year but memories are short. Also, a new strain, the potency of which we don't yet fully understand, doesn't help.

I don't know about the veracity of your statistic but surely the point is that where infections lead hospitalisations and deaths follow. Again we know that ok-looking numbers now - a moot point as that's a load of hospital treatment that others are missing out on - can quickly translate into bad-looking numbers in January and February.

So by doing everything we can to keep infections as low as we can now we help ourselves to avoid more serious scenarios down the track.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14724 on December 04, 2021, 12:27:46 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
I'll keep saying it till it sinks in.

When you are dealing with exponential increase, sma changes make massive effects on the outcome.

If cases double once a week, after ten weeks they have gone up 1000x.

If you can make two changes to behaviour that each reduce transmissibility by just 10%, after ten weeks you have cut that increase by 90%. After 20 weeks, you've cut the increase by 99%.

Little things. Just being careful. And responsible. Instead of screaming ignorant nonsense as an excuse for being irresponsible and killing people.

Nudga

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14725 on December 04, 2021, 09:17:26 pm by Nudga »
I'll keep saying it till it sinks in.

When you are dealing with exponential increase, sma changes make massive effects on the outcome.

If cases double once a week, after ten weeks they have gone up 1000x.

If you can make two changes to behaviour that each reduce transmissibility by just 10%, after ten weeks you have cut that increase by 90%. After 20 weeks, you've cut the increase by 99%.

Little things. Just being careful. And responsible. Instead of screaming ignorant nonsense as an excuse for being irresponsible and killing people.

You are Rod Stewart and I claim my £5

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14726 on December 05, 2021, 12:13:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Figures coming out of South Africa are very worrying.

Positive test results per day have gone up 8 fold in 9 days. That implies Omicron has a higher R number than the R0 of the original strain! That is, even with measures in place, it spreads faster than the original strain did when we were caught with our pants down.

Questions now are:

1) How severe is it?
2) How effective are existing vaccines and pre-infection resistance against it?

We'll have a good idea about 1 next week because people in SA will start dying of Omicron this week. If the deaths start to rise at a similar rate then God help countries with low vaccination rates.

2 depends on how quickly it spreads in well vaccinated countries. It'll take another couple of weeks before we start to see that. But if our daily numbers start to increase anything like those in SA, we have a major problem.

ColinDouglasHandshake

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14727 on December 05, 2021, 12:19:05 pm by ColinDouglasHandshake »
Worrying for those who choose to worry.

On a fun note. An anagram of Delta and Omicron is Media Control  :lol:

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14728 on December 05, 2021, 06:44:45 pm by normal rules »
Figures coming out of South Africa are very worrying.

Positive test results per day have gone up 8 fold in 9 days. That implies Omicron has a higher R number than the R0 of the original strain! That is, even with measures in place, it spreads faster than the original strain did when we were caught with our pants down.

Questions now are:

1) How severe is it?
2) How effective are existing vaccines and pre-infection resistance against it?

We'll have a good idea about 1 next week because people in SA will start dying of Omicron this week. If the deaths start to rise at a similar rate then God help countries with low vaccination rates.

2 depends on how quickly it spreads in well vaccinated countries. It'll take another couple of weeks before we start to see that. But if our daily numbers start to increase anything like those in SA, we have a major problem.

Initial reports from SA suggested the R number could be around 2

normal rules

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #14729 on December 06, 2021, 09:57:27 am by normal rules »
I’ve read many reports and quotes, stats and a lot of other stuff about covid, but in relation to mandatory vaccines, this struck a chord with me, and I think it is something that we will hear more of in the coming weeks and months . It’s a quote from a professor of Law in South Africa regarding the potential legal basis for mandatory vaccines.

"The right to bodily integrity as a person who doesn't want to be vaccinated, who wants to make his or her own choices about what medical treatment to get, comes up directly against the rights of other people, not to be infected with potentially fatal diseases,"

Governments across the world are wrangling over this very point as we speak. Some (Austria) have already taken the decision in favour of those who do not want to be infected, by making vaccines mandatory. In the uk it’s already happening for those in the health care  sectors. Others will follow I have no doubt.

 

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