Coronavirus

[Ldr]

From what I can see locally a lot of the rise in recent days is catching up of inpatient test results rather than admissions

[bpoolrover]

RD.

We have already got a far higher spread of Omicron than SA ever did. Currently, something above 1 in 25 people in England are infected. That means it's now almost impossible to avoid contact  if you have any contact with others at all.

You're right that, unmitigated, this will rise and fall quickly. The problem is that the rise could go much, much higher yet. Once it is this widespread, infections are unlikely to suddenly start falling until the virus can't find anyone else to infect. That's only going to happen by one if two mechanisms. Social distancing, or everyone susceptible getting infected. If we go down the latter path, people would be well advised not to have heart attacks or accidents in January and February. The number of new daily hospital cases has trebled in a fortnight. If it does that again in the next fortnight, there is no way the NHS can function normally.

do we have a higher rate thou, how many tests do they do a week in South Africa?

[Metalmicky]

189k cases and 203 deaths today........

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

[wilts rover]

Apologies to people who don't like facts, but there you go, Britian in 2021.

If it makes you feel any better, he real problem is not covid but the handling of it by this government. Combined with they way they have run down the NHS since they have been in power:

Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

-Germany: 8.0
-France: 6.0
-Italy: 3.2
-UK: 2.5

ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
-Germany: 38.7
-France: 11.6
-Italy: 12.5
-UK: 6.6

UK hospital beds per 1000:
-2000: 4.08
-2005: 3.72
-2010: 3.54
-2015: 2.51
-2019: 2.46

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1476546398841679878

[Nudga]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

[Nudga]

Apologies to people who don't like facts, but there you go, Britian in 2021.

If it makes you feel any better, he real problem is not covid but the handling of it by this government. Combined with they way they have run down the NHS since they have been in power:

Hospital beds per 1000 people (most recent World Bank data)

-Germany: 8.0
-France: 6.0
-Italy: 3.2
-UK: 2.5

ICU-CCB beds per 100,000 people
-Germany: 38.7
-France: 11.6
-Italy: 12.5
-UK: 6.6

UK hospital beds per 1000:
-2000: 4.08
-2005: 3.72
-2010: 3.54
-2015: 2.51
-2019: 2.46

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/1476546398841679878

Jamie Jenkins is worth a follow if you like your stats

[BillyStubbsTears]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

No I didn't.

I said numbers would be going through the roof by Xmas, and that the real problem was likely to come in early January.

But I see you've picked up a like by a troll, so nice one.

Have fun.

[drfchound]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

No I didn't.

I said numbers would be going through the roof by Xmas, and that the real problem was likely to come in early January.

But I see you've picked up a like by a troll, so nice one.

Have fun.

I was liking the greetings by nudga, you are such a self centred prat bst.
It isn’t all about you even though you think it is.

[Nudga]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

No I didn't.

I said numbers would be going through the roof by Xmas, and that the real problem was likely to come in early January.

But I see you've picked up a like by a troll, so nice one.

Have fun.

This you?



Nationally, hospitalisations are still flatlining at about 750/day, thankfully. My best guess though is that they'll be rising sharply by this time next week. And given that trends in deaths have all the the epidemic remarkably well tracked trends in hospitalisations a week before, I'd expect some grim deaths data over Xmas week

[selby]

  Could be a good reason to re jig the NHS them numbers but would also like to see , the rise in the number of non medical front line staff now employed by the NHS in the same time frame, the number of part time as against full time consultant staff and the yearly hours they provide now to previous years, the rise in government input financially, the cost per year of the loans set up by the labour government for new hospitals, the difference in average wages, the down time per 24 hrs of specialist medical equipment because of lack of cover over the same time frame and a host of other reports to get a complete view of just what is wrong with a constantly declining service that is constantly costing us the tax payer more money.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep Nudga fair play, I'd forgotten that one. I'd not taken into account the fact that the London cases were initially predominantly in younger people. So hospitalisations didn't start to rise sharply until significantly later.

I was having a "best guess" and I got the timing wrong. But hospital cases are now shooting through the roof, and the infections spreading into older people. My best guess is that deaths will be going up throughout January.

But yes I got this call wrong. And it's right to hold your hand up when you do. Agreed?

[scawsby steve]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

No I didn't.

I said numbers would be going through the roof by Xmas, and that the real problem was likely to come in early January.

But I see you've picked up a like by a troll, so nice one.

Have fun.

I was liking the greetings by nudga, you are such a self centred prat bst.
It isn’t all about you even though you think it is.

[belton rover]

MM
I think the new case numbers now are pretty much irrelevant because there are so many cases, we haven't got the capacity to test them all.

The man heading the ONS weekly survey was on the radio this lunchtime. He reckons that in London alone, around 1 in 11 people now have COVID. That would mean maybe 900,000 currently have COVID. Which would suggest at least 100,000 a day are catching it (given that it has usually cleared up after 7-10 days).

It's going to be tough figuring out what is happening over the next couple of weeks, as I'd expect new case numbers might not increase much from here, because of capacity limits. The thing to watch for will be how hospital cases go. And also how the test positivity rate goes. Those are what will tell us how far the virus is spreading.

You keep moving your goal posts. You said we'd be in the shit in Christmas week.

Anyway, have a great evening everyone. What will be will be.

No I didn't.

I said numbers would be going through the roof by Xmas, and that the real problem was likely to come in early January.

But I see you've picked up a like by a troll, so nice one.

Have fun.

This you?



Nationally, hospitalisations are still flatlining at about 750/day, thankfully. My best guess though is that they'll be rising sharply by this time next week. And given that trends in deaths have all the the epidemic remarkably well tracked trends in hospitalisations a week before, I'd expect some grim deaths data over Xmas week

Nudga. Stop misrepresenting his words. How could you possibly think that ‘grim deaths data over Xmas week’ could mean anything negative?

[BillyStubbsTears]

Yep Nudga fair play, I'd forgotten that one. I'd not taken into account the fact that the London cases were initially predominantly in younger people. So hospitalisations didn't start to rise sharply until significantly later.

I was having a "best guess" and I got the timing wrong. But hospital cases are now shooting through the roof, and the infections spreading into older people. My best guess is that deaths will be going up throughout January.

But yes I got this call wrong. And it's right to hold your hand up when you do. Agreed?

Meant to add (shouldn't need to but y'know). I'll be delighted if I'm totally wrong on this and deaths don't go up in the New Year because it will mean for the very first time in the epidemic that the link between hospital cases and deaths has been broken. The NHS is going to come under massive pressure over the next few weeks. That's a given. But if that doesn't go hand in hand with tens of thousands more deaths, that's a massive plus.

[selby]

  Is pressure getting to you Billy?

[turnbull for england]

Me and Mrs TFE have just been to walk through test centre, both had cough, sore throat betc since Christmas Eve lft negative every time tried , but need sorting for work. Bloke at reception said it was their busiest day since opening in Feb 21, constant queue for 2 hrs

[WheatleyRover]

Yeah people that have got regular colds/flu thinking they have covid probably.
And people trying to get off work.

[Bentley Bullet]

Appointments at doctors surgeries had a history of popularity at this time of year when they were open!

[roversdude]

189k cases and 203 deaths today........

The deaths included catch up figures didn’t it

[Bentley Bullet]

189k cases and 203 deaths today........

The deaths included catch up figures didn’t it

 A decrease of 43 compared to the previous 7 days.

[Metalmicky]

162k cases and 154 deaths today

[BillyStubbsTears]

Pointless looking at the numbers by the day they are reported just at the moment.

There's been big delays then catch ups. Today's figures are for England only for example. 7 day average of deaths has gone from 105 just before Xmas to 73 just after and then to 130 today. That's the drop in reporting over Xmas followed by the catch up.

The data by date of test or date of death is more instructive, but it does lag by a week or so. It looks like the long, slow steady fall in daily deaths from 170 or so back in Octoberber to just over 100 just before Xmas might have bottomed out. We'll know by the end of next week if they've started rising again. London suggests they will. While the rest of the country saw a fall in daily deaths through early/mid December, London's rate more than doubled in the three weeks to Xmas. Likely that's because Omicron hit there first I guess.

[WheatleyRover]

How many people died of something else that had a positive covid result and it went down as a Covid death?
The figures are incorrect.

[Metalmicky]

162k cases and 154 deaths today

Pointless looking at the numbers by the day they are reported just at the moment.

There's been big delays then catch ups. Today's figures are for England only for example. 7 day average of deaths has gone from 105 just before Xmas to 73 just after and then to 130 today. That's the drop in reporting over Xmas followed by the catch up.

The data by date of test or date of death is more instructive, but it does lag by a week or so. It looks like the long, slow steady fall in daily deaths from 170 or so back in Octoberber to just over 100 just before Xmas might have bottomed out. We'll know by the end of next week if they've started rising again. London suggests they will. While the rest of the country saw a fall in daily deaths through early/mid December, London's rate more than doubled in the three weeks to Xmas. Likely that's because Omicron hit there first I guess.

I somehow knew there would be nothing positive....

[BillyStubbsTears]

How many people died of something else that had a positive covid result and it went down as a Covid death?
The figures are incorrect.

Every single week the ONS release figures breaking the headline numbers into cases where COVID was considered the primary cause of death and cases where COVID was incidental.

Go look it up.

[BillyStubbsTears]

162k cases and 154 deaths today

Pointless looking at the numbers by the day they are reported just at the moment.

There's been big delays then catch ups. Today's figures are for England only for example. 7 day average of deaths has gone from 105 just before Xmas to 73 just after and then to 130 today. That's the drop in reporting over Xmas followed by the catch up.

The data by date of test or date of death is more instructive, but it does lag by a week or so. It looks like the long, slow steady fall in daily deaths from 170 or so back in Octoberber to just over 100 just before Xmas might have bottomed out. We'll know by the end of next week if they've started rising again. London suggests they will. While the rest of the country saw a fall in daily deaths through early/mid December, London's rate more than doubled in the three weeks to Xmas. Likely that's because Omicron hit there first I guess.

I somehow knew there would be nothing positive....

Just stating facts. Take them or leave them.

[Nudga]

Is there still an excess of non covid deaths at home?

[WheatleyRover]

How many people died of something else that had a positive covid result and it went down as a Covid death?
The figures are incorrect.

Every single week the ONS release figures breaking the headline numbers into cases where COVID was considered the primary cause of death and cases where COVID was incidental.

Go look it up.

Bullshit data like I said.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Why do you say that?