Coronavirus

[SydneyRover]

We are going to have to cross our collective fingers and really hope that the government is across this virus (unlike it shambolic preparations to a no-deal brexit) as Polly Tonybee quoted in her column.

''Tim Cook, an ICU doctor, writing in the Guardian, gave a graphic picture of the lack of intensive care and critical care beds – Britain ranking 23rd out of 31 countries for provision, and almost bottom for the number of hospital beds overall''

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

[Ldr]

To add a little further to the sensationalist story from the icu doctor in the Guardian.

https://twitter.com/AndyWelch13/status/1234830642719920129?s=19

[BillyStubbsTears]

Ldr.

Anyone who is blithely saying the NHS is ready for this is just as culpable to be honest.

Did you hear Chris Whitty yesterday? He said to the Parliament Select Committe that when this crisis breaks, they expect 50% of the infections to come over a 3 week period. The minimum total number of infections I've heard people talking about is 15% of the population, or about 10million people.

So that's a minimum of 5million people catching this over a 3 week period at the peak of the epidemic.

And in Italy, they are reporting that 10% of cases are having serious effects.

So that's half a million people becoming seriously ill over a 3 week period.

No health service, anywhere, ever in history is equipped to deal with those sorts of numbers while still functioning anything like normally.

This is why it is so important to limit the spread and try to reduce the total numbers. Washing hands a lot, avoiding unnecessary contact etc. And when the tsunami does come, listening to official advice about isolating ourselves.

This is likely to come very quickly. Sometime between the end of April and the middle of June. We have very little time to start psychologically preparing ourselves for the changes in lifestyle that we are going to need to implement very quickly.

[Ldr]

Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate

[SydneyRover]

I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment

[BillyStubbsTears]

Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate

Maybe you're right Ldr. Maybe he's been planning for this and they've got a pop up hospital oven ready, with a million ICU beds and 5 million staff.

If so, I'm going to look a right idiot in a few weeks time.

[Ldr]

Forgive me, I'll take the opinion of the medical director of one of the largest NHS trusts in the country over you at this stage mate

Maybe you're right Ldr. Maybe he's been planning for this and they've got a pop up hospital oven ready, with a million ICU beds and 5 million staff.

If so, I'm going to look a right idiot in a few weeks time.

Mate, I suspect somewhere between the two extremes will be the eventual outcome. I look forward to buying you a pint at some stage in less troubled times

[BillyStubbsTears]

Between what two extremes?

Look at the numbers I set out above. That is the minimum scenario. 15% infection rate is what we get in a typical flu epidemic. And this is far more virulent than simple flu.

If the bloke you quoted is saying that the NHS has plans for how to operate in this crisis, I'm sure he's right. It would be the biggest dereliction of duty if they didn't.

If he's saying those plans are just to carry on working as normal, and that they'd be able to treat appropriately everyone who needs treatment, he's away with the fairies. And pointedly, that is absolutely NOT what Chris Whitty has been saying recently.

Look. There's no point in panicking. But the sort of complacency you are showing WILL lead to a lot more people dying if it is widespread throughout the country.

This is coming. It's going to be massive. And it's going to come very, very quickly.

[SydneyRover]

Here's a run-down on the plan

Explained: UK's coronavirus action plan
What the government’s measures to fight the spread of Covid-19 mean in practice

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/explained-uk-coronavirus-action-plan

[Nudga]

Here's my simplistic view. Don't believe the propaganda being spewed out by mainstream media channels, don't panic and live life as normal.
There's something not right with this and I bet a pound to a pinch of shit that someone will make billions out of it.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nudga mate.

That's dangerous b*llocks. This is real and it's very serious. We haven't had a threat like this since the days of the Luftwaffe. If folk don't pay attention,they are going to cause 10s maybe 100s of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment

Saying that, when the key minister is simply lying about Govt preparedness, it doesn't help does it?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-51769184

Politics has become too much about managing public opinion. That sounded like what Hancock was doing last night. If that's the best he can do, he needs removing while we still have time, and replacing with someone with a track record of crisis management, even if they are not an MP.

[big fat yorkshire pudding]

I'm not sure this side of the crisis is the right time to be digging into the politics.

This is the time for the whole country getting ready to ride out the biggest crisis since the War.

Once it's over, THEN it's time to look into whether our political decisions over the past 50 years have undermined our resilience to this sort of crisis.

fair comment

Saying that, when the key minister is simply lying about Govt preparedness, it doesn't help does it?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-51769184

Politics has become too much about managing public opinion. That sounded like what Hancock was doing last night. If that's the best he can do, he needs removing while we still have time, and replacing with someone with a track record of crisis management, even if they are not an MP.

Actually you'd argue it's acceptable to attempt to calm down panic buying wouldn't you?  The more the media ramp up there may be a problem the bigger people hoard and then we end up running out of things.....

[BillyStubbsTears]

BFYP.

Yes. Calming down panic buying is a sensible thing to do.

But lying to do that is bleeding stupid. That doesn't calm anyone down. That gives the impression of a Govt that is out of its depth.

[The Red Baron]

One thing I've noticed is how few cases there appear to be in the Southern Hemisphere. It may be a reporting/ testing issue, although you'd think every country will be on the alert for Coronavirus. Or it is possible that the weather does make a big difference to the spread of it.

Here's hoping for an early and warm spring!

[Nudga]

Nudga mate.

That's dangerous b*llocks. This is real and it's very serious. We haven't had a threat like this since the days of the Luftwaffe. If folk don't pay attention,they are going to cause 10s maybe 100s of thousands of unnecessary deaths.

BST, we've had bird flu, swine flu and the Sars virus.
All forgotten, has anybody had them since they came out?

Those virus's failed what they were intended to do, we didn't have the social media back then like we do now.
I wouldn't even trust any of the figures of illness banded about.

So let's stop footballers from shaking hands, those same footballers who are gozzing all over the pitch every 2 minutes.
Those samed footballers screaming in each others faces and sweating all over the place.
Mr Murdoch wouldn't be happy if his shit show go the plug pulled.

Seria A. Let's play the game behind closed doors.
Yeah cos the footballers, match officials, media, ground staff, club officials can't catch the virus and pass it on can they?

Some lucky Kitson is going to get a nice wedge of this £47 million "research" money.

[BillyStubbsTears]

I suspect it's a bit of all of that TRB. Plus, probably the biggest issue is that there's simply less travel from most Southern hemisphere countries because most of them are relatively poor and the distances and costs of travel are so great. Australia has as many cases as us, proportionate to the population, so that would support the wealth/travel hypothesis.

The fascinating case is Russia. Only 6 cases there apparently. In a country where there is loads of travel to Italy. (I once waited 8 hours for a late flight at Naples airport. While I was waiting, 14 other flights landed: 7 of them from Russia. I can't begin to imagine what's the connection between Russia and Naples...)

Anyway. Looks like Putin really IS the great Czar protecting his people...

[BillyStubbsTears]

Nudga.

SARS was contained and stopped from spreading by draconian isolation measures. So it only infected a few 1000 people in a handful of countries before it was stopped. The horse has bolted on that one with Covid-19. It's already infected 100,000+ in 100 countries and that number is growing by 300 cases a day.


The swine flu pandemic in 2009 only had a fatality rate of of about 0.05%. It still infected a billion people and killed several hundred thousand worldwide. And we had some basic immunity to that.

We've got zero immunity to Covid-19. And it looks like having a fatality rate 20 times that of Swine Flu. You could easily be looking at 3-4billion people worldwide catching this and 10-50million people worldwide dying of it. And quickly - that is the problem. When it catches hold in a country, if we follow what you are saying and do bugger all about it, it will rip through the population like a dose of salts and it will overwhelm the health services.

What you are saying is that you don't trust politicians. I get that, although I don;t agree that all politicians are liars. But it's not politicians who are raising the concerns on this. It's their chief scientific advisers. Who have career long track records of providing correct expert advice, and who stand to lose their reputations and their jobs if they get shit like this wrong.

You HAVE to take this seriously. It is a f**king enormous threat. I'm telling you, if everybody takes your attitude, this is going to be a catastrophe. It's perfectly possible that a quarter of a million people in the UK will die in a fortnight a few months down the line unless we get control of this.

[Nudga]

OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.

[SydneyRover]

And the Y2K virus came to nothing 

[BillyStubbsTears]

OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.

Nudga.

There is no possibility whatsoever of anyone developing a vaccine quickly enough to get control of this. The vaccine is going to be there to give people immunity for later waves of Covid19. But it won't be ready for a year at least.

The carnage this thing is going to do will be played out round the world sometime between April and Xmas, depending on how quickly it spreads. The way it's spreading in the UK at the moment, the peak would hit us in about 5-6 weeks. I suspect it will slow down, but it will still be sometime in the next 3-4 months. So there ain't going to be a vaccine to save people. The one and only chance we've got to control this bas**rd is all of us listening to expert advice and doing what they tell us to do.

[Nudga]

OK, no problem with your view at all Billy.
Watch this space though, the world's police and saviours (the USA) will find a miracle vaccination Big Pharma will make billions, oh, and that NHS back door for the USofA has just opened a little bit more.

Yes, I am very, very cynical with this world.

Power, greed, money, propaganda, control.

Nudga.

There is no possibility whatsoever of anyone developing a vaccine quickly enough to get control of this. The vaccine is going to be there to give people immunity for later waves of Covid19. But it won't be ready for a year at least.

The carnage this thing is going to do will be played out round the world sometime between April and Xmas, depending on how quickly it spreads. The way it's spreading in the UK at the moment, the peak would hit us in about 5-6 weeks. I suspect it will slow down, but it will still be sometime in the next 3-4 months. So there ain't going to be a vaccine to save people. The one and only chance we've got to control this bas**rd is all of us listening to expert advice and doing what they tell us to do.

Like not shaking hands when we play football and then washing them.
OK.

[SydneyRover]

BFYP.

Yes. Calming down panic buying is a sensible thing to do.

But lying to do that is bleeding stupid. That doesn't calm anyone down. That gives the impression of a Govt that is out of its depth.

Such as this?

''On Thursday, Matt Hancock said: "We are working with the supermarkets to make sure that, if people are self-isolating, then we will be able to get the food and supplies that they need."

But supermarket sources said they had not discussed getting food to homes.

One executive said he was "baffled" by the suggestions.

An executive told BBC business editor Simon Jack: "Matt Hancock has totally made up what he said about working with supermarkets. We haven't heard anything from government directly."

He added that sales of cupboard basics such as pasta and tinned goods have "gone through the roof".''

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51769184

[BigH]

Italy, 24 Feb:

124 cases, 2 deaths

5 Mar:

3089 cases, 107 deaths

Hubei, 20 Jan

258 cases, 3 deaths

30 Jan

c6500 cases, c160 deaths

So from where we are now, will be interesting to see what the situation looks like in 10 days time. A clue to the trajectory thereafter?

[BillyStubbsTears]

This feels to me like a Very Bad Sign.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3074050/coronavirus-us-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-wuhan-virus

There are all sorts of indications that the Trump administration is botching the handling of the virus outbreak.

The fact that they are now calling it Wuhan Virus feels like they are already into Blame Mode.

[SydneyRover]

What else can we expect from these overblown delinquents

[ravenrover]

Self isolate if you have the symptoms? How do you know? Could it just be flu? Way over the top at this stage, what happens when it hits Africa, that might be the time to worry JMHO

[rich1471]

second person died in Milton Keynes hospital 

[Nudga]

This feels to me like a Very Bad Sign.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3074050/coronavirus-us-secretary-state-mike-pompeos-wuhan-virus

There are all sorts of indications that the Trump administration is botching the handling of the virus outbreak.

The fact that they are now calling it Wuhan Virus feels like they are already into Blame Mode.

Increase the panic, change the name to demonise a race /country.

Step 2 complete. Now the propaganda will be in over drive.


Step 3. No one is talking about Brexit and Prince Andrew and Trumps clandestine meetings with Russian officials.