Coronavirus

[BillyStubbsTears]

And something more profound too follow up what Dutch has said:

#CoronaVirus a brutal lesson in what "welfare," used often as a swear word, means. It means that plight of weak & vulnerable in society impacts us all. That a healthy citizenry benefits all. That collective good is the ultimate good. That no-one is immune from pain, misfortune.

https://twitter.com/ChrChristensen/status/1236675927117115393

Very good point Wilts.

Some famous economist (I don't remember who but it wasn't a raving Commie) once said that people's attitude to "welfare" (as you define it) should be based on the assumption that one day, Fate would deal them a blow and they'd need Society to help them out.

We've had decades of thinking that "welfare" is something for other people - I work, you work, him over there, he scrounges off our efforts. And we've left our safety nets stretched and uncared for.

Another great economist, Hyman Minsky once said, "Success breeds a disregard of the possibility of failure". Those of us who have never had to fall back on the safety net have had years where we've never had to imagine that we might. I truly hope our welfare structures are strong enough to cope with what's coming over the next few months. And if they aren't we need to do some serious thinking about priorities afterwards.

[BillyStubbsTears]

The problem seems to be the ease at which it can be passed on, hence the mass lock downs in infected countries. It's a nasty cousin of the Common chuffing cold!

That and the fact that it appears to have a mortality rate 20 times that of usual flu.

[albie]

Graphic to show why introducing delay is important, and at an early date;
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1236330665093861379/photo/1

When you see age specific fatality ratios (best estimates), you see where the risk lies;

Age 50-59: 1.3%
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)

[Sprotyrover]

It'd be well stranded if it was off the coast of Laos.

Lagos😂😂😂

[Sprotyrover]

Graphic to show why introducing delay is important, and at an early date;
https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1236330665093861379/photo/1

When you see age specific fatality ratios (best estimates), you see where the risk lies;

Age 50-59: 1.3%
Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)

Since China locked down its industry there has been a dramatic fall in Atmospheric pollution. Call me sad but why are we tolerating these dark Satanic mills to thrive and continue. We need to boycott their cheap tat until they do something about killing the planet... cmon Greta show us what you are made off!

[BillyStubbsTears]

We are going to get a massive economic hit from Coronavirus.

On the positive side, there's nothing whatsoever to justify the Govt not borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects to boost the economy.

That's precisely what Osborne and Cameron refused to do a decade ago...because...debt.

Well guess what? That was bobbins then and it's even moreso now. The financial markets are prepared to pay the Govt to take their money right now!

https://mobile.twitter.com/bondvigilantes/status/1236925304775606272

That's right. We can borrow at negative interest rates.

[Copps is Magic]

The spread of the disease is slowing down in..

China
S. Korea
Singapore
Hong Kong

Probably more

[BillyStubbsTears]

Four places where they have quickly taken drastic action to isolate suspected cases.

[Colemans Left Hook]

We are going to get a massive economic hit from Coronavirus.

On the positive side, there's nothing whatsoever to justify the Govt not borrowing to invest in infrastructure projects to boost the economy.

That's precisely what Osborne and Cameron refused to do a decade ago...because...debt.

Well guess what? That was bobbins then and it's even moreso now. The financial markets are prepared to pay the Govt to take their money right now!

https://mobile.twitter.com/bondvigilantes/status/1236925304775606272

That's right. We can borrow at negative interest rates.

which reminds me this "old chestnut"  i've known about this for a long while

2015 seems the swiss rates went negative (but the investor has probable currency gains)   long time since i remember at least 5 swiss francs to the pound 

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/switzerland/long-term-interest-rate


 

[BillyStubbsTears]

Germany, once again, is the idiot in all this.

They can borrow for ten years at -0.8% at the moment. They cold borrow huge amounts, use it to invest in infrastructure that tey would own all over Europe, boost flagging economies and be paid by the banks for doing it!

But they won't because they have a pathological obsession with debt and inflation. Fighting a 90 year old demon when they should be dealing with today's problems.

[nightporter]

How China slowed Coronavirus 

https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status/1237020518781460480

[BillyStubbsTears]

This.

Folk can't say on one hand "It's not dangerous - China has controlled it" and then on the other hand say that banning handshaking is a mad over-reaction.

It's a simple choice. We keep calm and carry on, and there WILL be tens of millions of cases in the UK by some point this year. Then it's a case of mitigating the worst effects, but with the very best will in the world, the worst effects will still be awful.

Or if we want to kill this outbreak, we need to accept a near- total shut down of our society.

What you cannot do, is say we don't need to do anything major, then complain with the crisis explodes.

[drfchound]

I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.

[BillyStubbsTears]

Meanwhile, the US and UK stock markets are down 20% in less than a month. Hard to see how this isn't pressaging a big recession.

And this...
https://mobile.twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1237001949293301761

Just astonishing. The US Govt can borrow with 30 year repayment terms at 0.8% interest!!

Like Krugman says there,that means the Market is saying it expects US growth to be negligible for the whole of the next generation.

It's starting to feel like Coronavirus is the knockout blow to an economic system that never did the simple stuff that was needed after the GFC.

[scawsby steve]

I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.

Thanks for that Hound. It's nice to hear a bit of humour after listening to all the apocalyptic armageddon doom and gloom merchants on here.

[BillyStubbsTears]

This guy is a genius.

Look at this tweet from Saturday.
https://mobile.twitter.com/silveraa/status/1236793716976672768

And this one from today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1237024549046288385

[Donnywolf]

I’m a bit worried.
All day I have been singing Dean Martin and Bing Crosby songs.
I think I might have crooner virus.

.... a lol from Mrs DW - she never did have any taste !

[wilts rover]

Whole of Italy now in lockdown - how on earth are they going to enforce that?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

[DonnyOsmond]

Whole of Italy now in lockdown - how on earth are they going to enforce that?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51810673

Well they need to try something after having 97 deaths today.

[BillyStubbsTears]

That's nothing compared to what's coming. That's while they still have capacity to treat the critically ill cases. Think what happens when there are ten times as many infections and the ICUs are full.

[Copps is Magic]

WHO figures seems to suggest the number of daily new cases globally has stabalised over the last 4/5 days.

[Mike_F]

I see De Pfeffel Johnson has been taking a grilling form the notorious heavyweight journos, Schofield and Willoughby.

And his advice?

"Carry on and take this virus on the chin, lots of people will be absolutely fine."

Aye ok. And hundreds of thousands won't be fine at all. They'll be brown bread. Pushing up daisies. Joining the choir eternal. They will cease to be.

Out of interest what percentage of the nation's benefit spend is accounted for in the state pension? and what's the cash value of that?

And what if say around about the following percentages of claimants stopped claiming...

Age 60-69: 4.6% (range 3.8-5.4)
Age 70-79: 9.8% (range 8.2-12)
Age 80+: 18% (range 14-22)

[idler]

It's not just the amount spent on pensions it could also knock a large amount of benefits, hospital and medical expenses.
I'm sure that the hard nosed politicians won't have considered this though.

[The Red Baron]

I think that Johnson clip was from a few weeks ago.

[Mike_F]

Ah, apologies if that's the Case, TRB. I only saw it this morning but I guess that's social media for you.

[albie]

Helpful update summary from MIT;
https://www.technologyreview.com/f/615341/flu-vs-coronavirus-6-differences/

Key point to note is the time the virus can stay active for spreading. See the section on "shedding".

Rough ride ahead!

[Bristol Red Rover]

Something I see a lot of people making a mistake on is seeing the deaths and seeing them as a proportion of totsl cases.

In the UK so far, 6 dead and 18 recovered, with 349 to go one of those ways. I'm not suggesting the mortality is 6/18 ie 33% in the UK, but it's far above 6/373 ie 1.6%.

[Copps is Magic]

Why would it be far above 1.6%? The ONLY country that has done widespread testing, i.e. South Korea (who last I checked had tested over 200k people) are reporting a mortality rate of approximately 0.7%.

There are several promising treatments already on the horizon, or so I can decipher. One is using Chloroquine (a malaria medication that I have taken myself in the past) and a Zinc treatment Combo. Zinc supresses corona apparently but can't get naturally into cells. Chloroquine transports it into the cell.

There are also some drugs for ebola (And other diseases) that weren't effective but went through early stage trials, so don't need to go through them again.

[DonnyOsmond]

Doesn't seem to be growing too quickly here luckily. America will be one to watch with their lack of universal health care, people will be ignoring the symptoms because they can't afford the treatment or test.

[Bristol Red Rover]

CIM - All active cases will become recovered or dead. In your version you are assuming they will all recover.

In S Korea, where the number of cases known is more acurate than here or even Italy, the mortality is somewhere between 0.7% (if all active cases recover), and 22% based on those cases that are no longer active ie dead or recovered.