Coronavirus

[IDM]

Definitely not a time for politicking..

[BillyStubbsTears]

No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 

I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?

[albie]

I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.

This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.

Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.

We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.
For your consideration;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs

[IDM]

No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 

I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?

Would you argue that if a country had very few cases then stronger restrictions immediately may stop the spread.?

[River Don]

I think we have to accept this thing is out of control and the opportunity to contain it is long since past.

We have to accept the state of our resources, if only the NHS had been better funded and prepared. There is nothing we can do about that now, we are where we are.

Other nations are taking different approaches, well there are different circumstances. Singapore recently experienced an outbreak of SARS and they were prepared for it to happen again. They have gone all out early to try and contain it, with some success but ultimately I don't think they will contain it. How long can they keep this all out war on the virus up for?

I'll give Johnson his due, he does appear to being lead by the experts on this. His press conferences have been much more reassuring than those in the States. Here we have a plan of action and they have experts explaining that plan and to my mind what they are saying does make sense. The virus can't be contained but we might control it somewhat and we can't just let the economy grind to a complete halt for long. That would have worse consequences.

It's easy to look back to the Spanish flu and say this worked best then but it's a different world now. Often the temptation is to fight old wars in the traditional way but this is a new challenge and it's different. I think we've got to trust in the experts and their computer models.

[IDM]

He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..

[BillyStubbsTears]

I just can't see how non-intervention does anything other than increase the rate of infection in the near term.

This has the effect of bringing the peak forwards, when the objective is to delay the peak, and extend it over a longer period to give relief to the NHS.

Johnson is being led by Cummings and his nudge theory unit. The big idea is that "herd immunity" will be achieved , and the virus will peter out as more become resistant.

We have no idea that this new virus will behave in this way. The evidence to date is that strong interventions at the earliest point have delivered measurable results in China, South Korea and Singapore.

Why we should ignore the emerging evidence base to test an ungrounded theory is just perplexing.
For your consideration;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUzGVw_iacs

I respectfully disagree with most of that.

1) The primary aim is not to slow down the arrival of the peak. There IS some benefit to that (pushing the peak into a time when the weather is better so there are fewer other respiratory illnesses) but that is secondary. The primary aim is to SPREAD the peak. There will be a huge spike in cases at the time of the peak and the crucial thing is to try to spread that glut over as many weeks as possible. If we are going to end up with tens of millions of cases, you spread the peak by taking drastic action when the total number of cases is starting to rise towards 1million plus. Taking drastic action now won't help that. But it will stretch our stamina. Impose drastic measures for two months and maybe we can bear it. Impose them for 6 months and we'll break.

2) No-one that I have seen is taking about herd immunity. If they are, they want putting in a sealed box for the duration. Thereis no way of getting immunity to this virus short of getting the virus. In the absence of a vaccine, you are not going to get herd immunity without people succumbing to the virus, so that is self-defeating. Cummings is a megalomaniac, but he's not stupid on basic science, and that would be a very, very stupid thing to propose.

3) Yes, strong action has halted the spread of the virus. But as I say, can you keep that up for the long haul? I'm not convinced that China, Taiwan and Singapore can keep this under control when it is on the loose in the rest of the world. If they CAN, it will be by essentially isolating themselves from the world for a very long period (at least 12 months until there is a vaccine). Do you think we have the social or political will to do that, or the economic resilience to cope with the consequences of doing it?

4) As for your video, I gave up after 45 seconds. I have no axe to grid for Johnson, but a video that takes his words on "taking it on the chin" totally out of context (he went on to say that that is not what we should do) is not helping. It's playing politics. This is absolutely NOT the time for that. For the record, I'd say it was a very clumsy thing for Johnson to say and a sensible politician would not have said it. But to imply that this is our policy is, frankly, disgraceful. https://fullfact.org/health/boris-johnson-coronavirus-this-morning/

[River Don]

On reflection I think the thing with the schools is consistent.

We try and keep things ticking over, close them down as infections arise. It's about managing numbers. So more are infected early on and the health service is put under stress. But those cases are being dealt with. Then as the virus ramps up, as it is going to, then we chuck everything we have at it, in the hope the peak will be pushed down, back and out longer.

[BillyStubbsTears]

No IDM.

That's what the Chief Medical Officer said today. We cannot significantly change the total who will get it. We CAN slow down the rate, but if we go all in now, can we keep that up for 6 months? Maybe it's better to allow it to grow in numbers now, while it is still infecting sufficiently few people for the country to cope, and THEN  go heavy in maybe a month, when the numbers are transitioning from hundreds of thousands to millions. If we have to have a Draconian shutdown for three months, maybe we can cope with that. Having a closedown for months BEFORE that is asking a lot.

I understand that, but I thought that a virus might ultimately spread less if restrained.

So regardless of how and when, the total spread would be the same anyway.?

The thought therefore is why are other countries not doing the same.? 

I questioned the numbers that we had last night, but maybe I'm wrong. The CSA and CMO are infinitely more likely to be correct than I am.

In which case, we ARE 2-4 weeks further back than most other European countries. So it is not necessarily the case that either they are right or we are. Maybe we are all making more or less the least bad decisions in our particular circumstances?

Would you argue that if a country had very few cases then stronger restrictions immediately may stop the spread.?

Yes. I agree. But unless EVERY country does that, the virus is still around. So you can control your own outbreak, but you'd then need to shut yourself off from travel to and from the rest of the world. For a long time. And the economic consequences of that would kill a lot more people and ruin a lot more lives. That's why I'm far from convinced that the strong responses in the Far East have provided a long term solution for those countries.

China is saying that any visitor from anywhere will have to go into quarantine for 14 days. That effectively stops all visitors from going there. No business visits. No technical exchanges. No tourism. No political visits. They may well be able to do that for the year or more that they will need to do before a vaccine could be ready. Can we? I find it very hard to imagine that we could. Or should, because the economic consequences would be crippling, and would end up killing a lot more people.

[BillyStubbsTears]

On reflection I think the thing with the schools is consistent.

We try and keep things ticking over, close them down as infections arise. It's about managing numbers. So more are infected early on and the health service is put under stress. But those cases are being dealt with. Then as the virus ramps up, as it is going to, then we chuck everything we have at it, in the hope the peak will be pushed down, back and out longer.

Precisely. It's not guaranteed to work, but neither is lockdown for 6 months or more. It seems to me to be a best-guess compromise and that's about the best we can hope for at the moment.

[BillyStubbsTears]

He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..

They were discussing this on the radio while I was driving down the M1 tonight. The argument is a) Are you really going to stop kids mixing for 6 months and picking up the virus? and b) How many of them are going to end up being looked after by grandparents who are in the vulnerable demographics? So, good intentions might lead to vulnerable older people being far more exposed to the virus in large numbers.

[River Don]

Well BST,

it's new territory, nothing quite lke this has been faced before.

It is a best guess but it's an educated guess and at least there is a clear plan of action. That's reassuring at least.

[SydneyRover]

Meanwhile on another planet in a galaxy far far away ........................

''Donald Trump claimed ‘We have tested heavily’ but in fact just eight tests were carried out on Tuesday, as even allies speak out''

''Anger is mounting in the US over the Trump administration’s failure to test for coronavirus on a scale that could contain the outbreak and mitigate its most devastating impacts.

On Thursday the lack of testing capacity for Covid-19 was recognised in blunt terms by one of the top US officials dealing with the crisis. Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, described the current state of affairs as “a failing” at a hearing of the House oversight committee''

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-us-testing-failures-trump-administration

''By contrast South Korea, which has been grappling with one of the most severe outbreaks of Covid-19 globally, tests roughly the same number, about 10,000 people, every day. In total, South Korea has tested 230,000 of its 51 million people – 130 times as many per capita as the US.

The aggressive use of testing to identify carriers of the disease and quarantine them has been credited as a major factor in South Korea’s relative success in dealing with the crisis''

[Ldr]

Just a heads up, nurse at my work has advised to look for 70% alcohol content hand sanitizer not 100%. Something to do with how it reacts to cell membrane makes it more effective

[idler]

A guy in the pub was saying last night that he is going on a cruise in the summer and his cruise company have offered him an extra £400 on board spend not to cancel his holiday. There must be loads cancelling.

[SydneyRover]

Carnival have dropped anchor for two months

CARNIVAL CANCELS CRUISES AMID CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK, PRINCESS CRUISES LINE SUSPENDS OPERATIONS FOR TWO MONTHS

[River Don]

You know that film where the soldiers are building a bridge at a small hospital outpost. And then word comes the main force has been massacred and it is likely coming their way and the chief of engineers decides not to run but defend it. So they start to build defending walls and put up sandbags. Then they hear a drumming in the distance like a train.

Well, it feels like we're at that point where the sentry runs down off the hill and reports "Zulus Sir, thousands of 'em."

[Ldr]

So learn to sing men of harlech and quit whinging 🤣

[IDM]

He says the experts say closing schools could do more harm than good, but doesn’t expand on why, I’m the same day Ireland closed theirs..

I’m not saying either is the correct or best solution, I do find it very confusing..

They were discussing this on the radio while I was driving down the M1 tonight. The argument is a) Are you really going to stop kids mixing for 6 months and picking up the virus? and b) How many of them are going to end up being looked after by grandparents who are in the vulnerable demographics? So, good intentions might lead to vulnerable older people being far more exposed to the virus in large numbers.

Makes sense, and I have probably fallen into the trap of only reading the summaries on the BBC - that sort of explanation wasn’t reported yesterday.

My point is that I am quite reasonable and look at things with common sense before any political ideals etc yet even I get confused with what I am being told.

I don’t say for one moment that I am anything special but there are so many, so many people go respond to headlines only and “Chinese whispers” rumours spread via social media.  For example yesterday someone in our office shouted across the room that all schools would close for a month, from someone “in the know” but this was whilst the government meeting was still going on.!

Yesterday’s announcements seem to show - and I hope I am wrong here - that the government expects more deaths.  Whereas the impression from other countries is that they are doing all they can to prevent fatalities.  I would think a lot of our population would have a difficulty with understanding this.

I get it, I see why we are doing what we are doing, but in the global perspective it’s far more confusing IMHO.

[Metalmicky]

Found this - I think the Government are essentially sticking to the framework...

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf

[ravenrover]

In light of recent of panic buying UK supermarkets have introduced purchase limits.

Asda: 2 hand sanitisers, 24 toilet rolls max.

Tesco: 1 Hand sanitiser, 18 toilet rolls & 2kg rice.

Co-op: 12 rolls toilet paper, 1Kg rice.

Aldi: 2 Trumpets, 1 diving suit & a MIG welder.

[BillyStubbsTears]

IDM

Governments giving an indication that they can keep this to low numbers of deaths are deceiving their populations.

Look at the evidence from the two nearest things we have to controlled experiments.

Diamond Princess ship. A closed environment with C-19. 20% infection rate, 1% mortality rate.


South Korea. Has by far the most aggressive testing policy, so their published figures of cases are probably closer to the real number of cases than anywhere else in the world. And so the mortality rate will be the most accurate, because that comes from dividing a known figure (number who have died from C-19) by the best estimate of an uncertain figure (total cases in SK).

Their mortality rate looks like it is settling down to about 1%.

So, if you don't totally contain this virus, it's not unreasonable to expect 20% of the population to get it. We don't know what that figure will be, but I've not heard a virologist anywhere suggest that it will be much lower than that. Most are saying much higher.

And it's not unreasonable to assume 1% of those die.

So for the UK, the lowest reasonable number of deaths is about 140,000.

Johnson was being perfectly correct yesterday in preparing us for that. Politicians who are not preparing their people in the same way are derelict in their duty.

The massive unknown know is, what happens to that death rate if serious cases can't get hospital treatment at the peak because the health service is overwhelmed. That's when it could get very scary. If the number of cases is much higher than 20% and the death rate goes up it's not a stretch to imagine 500,000 or more deaths.

And THAT is why everything should be focussed on flattening the peak. Not taking panic measures now. If we are not going to contain this (and I cannot see any realistic way that any country can) then we have to slow its spread when it really matters.

As for people using this crisis to make political points, I'd say this. In a couple of months, this thing could kill more British people than died in the whole of WWII. It is THAT serious. In WWII, normal politics was suspended. The country has to have a common front on this.

[IDM]

Problem is, much of the population won’t look at things in that much detail.. there is a concern that the proposed measures won’t flatten the peak.?

[BillyStubbsTears]

In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.

[IDM]

I understand the need for flattening, it’s more an issue of whether the current measures will achieve that..

[Metalmicky]

In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.

Totally correct...

[Donnywolf]

I got slated for referring to Asian Flu on here a week or so ago as it had "no relevance" but that boomed from a start similar to this - and in 6 months from June 57 to Christmas 57 three thousand five hundred and fifty people in the UK were dead
We had no social media of course and even Telly was in its infancy and the Asian Flu would have been mentioned I am guessing only during news bulletins. I dont know I was only 6+ - but what I do know it eventually got me and my parents and brother and we were all bed ridden but recovered. I seem to remember we were in bed for "ages" probably a week
So this outbreak essentially (I am guessing) pretty similar to that is a frightening prospect and knowing what to do is difficult because everything you touch in the outside world carries a risk - and the risk is that someone has spread it via touching train seats doors - Open Door buttons - money they paid for Tickets which you get on your change etc etc. I could drive myself batty just thinking about it
However (eventually) I too would think I am more at risk of contracting it in a Supermarket than going to the Game tomorrow

Wolfie you are dead right about 1 thing in your post you definitely won't catch it at the game TOMORROW 😷😄

Hi Ravenrover

You were right about me being right 

[mushRTID]

Is it in Donny yet?
I know it probably is but i mean confirmed. Not seen anything

[Metalmicky]

Elite League ice hockey also cancelled........... puck you CV 19.

[The Red Baron]

In which case, buckle up because the peak will be worse than anything you can imagine.

If we do not flatten the peak, and the fatality rate goes up because people who should survive cannot get treatment, you can expect 3-4 weeks where 50-100 times more people die than in normal times.

And THAT is why flattening the peak must happen. People like that agitator in the video that Albie posted last night don't help. We're not going to have a revolution in the next month and install a People's Republic that will take China-like measures. Like it or not, our national policy is Delay and Flatten. Not Contain.

Anyone who deliberately undermines that approach and doesn't encourage people to follow advice if Delay and Flatten is, for the next few months, the enemy. We can dissect whether the right decisions were taken after this is over.

Good to see someone talking sense on this. The CMO or Piers Morgan? I know who I'd rather trust.