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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 860401 times)

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tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #480 on March 14, 2020, 03:24:37 pm by tyke1962 »
I have a difficulty with the assertion that policy is being "guided by the science" when that same policy is not open about the data which is informing decision makers.

The best way is to encourage discussion and potential disagreement by full disclosure. The scientific community can then make an informed view on the basis of common data assumptions.

Peer review is key to decision making in science. It is not a question of trust the CMO, or the CSO, it is a matter of critical assessment of the available evidence, as it changes across time and location.

Here is a pointer from Anthony Costello, ex WHO, about problem areas;
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1238425621375651840.html

No more briefings from Johnson, please......experts only, open about their disagreements.
BJ and Cummings have no democratic mandate for there current strategy devised inside a closed system.

Albie.

I entirely agree.

On that topic, something has just struck me. I've not seen anyone raise the issue of having a Coalition Govt for the next 6-9 months, as we did in the War. The threat, in terms of the number of deaths and the potential economic dislocation is at least as big. What we need as you say, is critical oversight and consensus on policy. And again, suspending traditional party politics would be THE clearest way of emphasising how serious this is.


The country voted emphatically not to have Labour representation inside Downing Street .

If we had a government without a majority then you'd probably make a decent point given the circumstances facing the UK at this moment .



We had a democratically elected Govt with a huge majority in May 1940. I don't understand your point.

Whilst this maybe a serious situation facing the UK and the rest of the world there's absolutely no way you can compare it to May 1940 .

The Luftwaffe aren't bombing our cities every evening and we have hundreds made homeless almost every night .

A decision isn't needed to be made about who goes to fight the Nazi's and who stays at home to service the war effort .

There isn't a decision to be made on rationing and there's unlikely to be given what we know already about the virus .

There's no need to seperate kids from their parents and evacuate them to the countryside .

The government has enough means to financially fight the crisis without having to go to Washington and borrow billions of dollars which will take 50 years to pay back plus interest .

It's a virus and there will be a vaccination , nobody is trying to invade us , conquer us and change our way of life forever .

It's unlikely the virus will claim 85 million lifes as WW2 did .

It's a crisis not a worldwide catastrophe .



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #481 on March 14, 2020, 03:34:49 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #482 on March 14, 2020, 03:34:59 pm by River Don »
Allende Foster has revealed Northern Ireland is making preparations to close schools for a total of 16 weeks.

The time has not come yet but that's in the pipeline. It will be the same here.

It gives you some idea of the scale of this thing.

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #483 on March 14, 2020, 04:07:32 pm by tyke1962 »
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.

Just to offer a bit of perspective Billy .



https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-daily-deaths/

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #484 on March 14, 2020, 04:20:05 pm by River Don »
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.

Just to offer a bit of perspective Billy .



https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-daily-deaths/

It is important to note this doesn't compare like with like and it is important to remember we are only at the begining of this emergency.

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #485 on March 14, 2020, 04:25:44 pm by albie »
Tyke,

I think you should consider the opinion of Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet;
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1

The letter to the Times sums up the need to provide the information to back up the policy choices of the government.

There is a concern that when Johnson talks about "the science", he means behavioral science, Dominic Cummings pet project. The wider scientific community mean Epidemiology should lead, with BS following behind that primary concern.

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #486 on March 14, 2020, 04:45:31 pm by tyke1962 »
Tyke,

I think you should consider the opinion of Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet;
https://twitter.com/richardhorton1

The letter to the Times sums up the need to provide the information to back up the policy choices of the government.

There is a concern that when Johnson talks about "the science", he means behavioral science, Dominic Cummings pet project. The wider scientific community mean Epidemiology should lead, with BS following behind that primary concern.


I take your point albie .

I'm just extremely wary of Billy's back door Labour power share view and it's MP's and members intentions on let's say another high profile matter going on in Brussels and to underline the point the electorate don't want em in Downing Street full stop .

Whether the government is handling this crisis well I simply couldn't say .

Time will be its judge I guess .


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #487 on March 14, 2020, 05:15:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Tyke.

Do you understand the concept of exponential growth in epidemics? If not, I suggest you do a bit of research before you wade in here again.

And suggesting I am wanting to get Labour into Government by the backdoor is beneath contempt. If that's you're level of contribution, you are going on block. Utterly contemptible.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #488 on March 14, 2020, 05:18:15 pm by Ldr »
To be fair to Tyke BST that's how it came across, intentional or not

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #489 on March 14, 2020, 05:24:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Ldr.

That is 100% NOT what I meant and I fail to see how you come to that conclusion unless you go in EXPECTING someone to be looking for advantage out if a national crisis.

If you read the number of times I've said on here that this is not the time to be playing politics and then come to that conclusion, you might want to consider your own thought processes.

The reason you have National Coalition governments in moments of crisis is to make sure you are building your Govt from the best talent available, not (deliberately or inadvertently) taking decisions that ignore other possibilities because of ideological blind spots,  and taking as many people with you.

Ldr

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #490 on March 14, 2020, 05:25:49 pm by Ldr »
Mate, at times we all can fail to see how we come across to others, especially in text.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #491 on March 14, 2020, 05:30:21 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Accepted.

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #492 on March 14, 2020, 05:33:38 pm by adamtherover »
This virus will kill a similar order of magnitude number of Britons as died in WWII.

In WWII, the deaths occurred over 6 years. This will mainly occur over a few weeks.

Worldwide, if the infection rate is 50% and the death rate 1%, both reasonable assumptions, there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks.

It is a collosal global and national crisis.
Sorry BST but this is about as sensationising as you have ever been. Theres 150000 recorded cases,  that would figure would have to double 15 times, to reach half of the worlds population, look at the current new rate figures, they seem to average out about 10% of existing cases.  So would take 150 days to reach your claim that "a few weeks is all that's needed"

Plus lock down as.evident in China almost stops the disease in its tracks, do you think this this will run wild through the world unchecked!!
You accused me of fighting the facts, look at the china model, after lock down. But seem to ignore that completely when giving doomsday scenarios about millions dieing!!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #493 on March 14, 2020, 05:34:45 pm by tyke1962 »
Tyke.

Do you understand the concept of exponential growth in epidemics? If not, I suggest you do a bit of research before you wade in here again.

And suggesting I am wanting to get Labour into Government by the backdoor is beneath contempt. If that's you're level of contribution, you are going on block. Utterly contemptible.

Fair enough Billy I'll withdraw my remark and apologise to you personally as a Labour member .

However given the way the last four years have played out and the colours shown by a significant number of Labour Remainers I wouldn't be withdrawing it as a collective thing .


BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #494 on March 14, 2020, 05:53:47 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Adam.

1) Listen to the epidemiologists who study these things every working day. They say epidemics generally double in numbers every 5 days.

So, 15 doublings would take 75 days. 10.5 weeks.

Even if they are wrong and the 10% per day increase is right the doubling rate is 7.2 days. So 15 doublings in 108 days, or 15 weeks.

The CSA said yesterday to expect the peak in 10-14 weeks.

Like I say, I just don't understand why you keep arguing with ME on this, when all I am doing is repeating what global experts in the subject are saying.

And yes, like I've been saying for weeks, China cut this by closing the country down. There is no country in the West willing or able to do this. Not least because of the number of people who simply will not accept expert advice.


tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #495 on March 14, 2020, 05:54:07 pm by tyke1962 »
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .

This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .

Over to you Boris .

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #496 on March 14, 2020, 06:08:01 pm by albie »
New York Times has an article on the explosive potential of exponential growth;
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/science/coronavirus-math-mitigation-distancing.html?smtyp=cur

The cost of delay is many more infections in the near term.

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #497 on March 14, 2020, 06:11:46 pm by adamtherover »
Adam.

1) Listen to the epidemiologists who study these things every working day. They say epidemics generally double in numbers every 5 days.

So, 15 doublings would take 75 days. 10.5 weeks.

Even if they are wrong and the 10% per day increase is right the doubling rate is 7.2 days. So 15 doublings in 108 days, or 15 weeks.

The CSA said yesterday to expect the peak in 10-14 weeks.

Like I say, I just don't understand why you keep arguing with ME on this, when all I am doing is repeating what global experts in the subject are saying.

And yes, like I've been saying for weeks, China cut this by closing the country down. There is no country in the West willing or able to do this. Not least because of the number of people who simply will not accept expert advice.


what part of anything ive wrote had anything to do with experts or their analysis?

And I quote  " there will be 40 million deaths in a few weeks"

No where have I said bad things are not going to happen, its your sheer insistence of the end of days is coming!!!!

If china started this thing in January and have only 80k cases and its stopped to a trickle, where are the 4 billion cases coming from.  That's a simple question with no scientific bias behind it, just wondering. 

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #498 on March 14, 2020, 06:14:43 pm by adamtherover »
For what its worth, if a full lock down is needed, I'm all for it, a couple of weeks of hardship hopefully financially helped by bojo,  and stop the spread!!
No one Is saying this thing ain't serious, just how serious is still to be determined..

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #499 on March 14, 2020, 06:19:40 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Adam.

You are constantly pushing back on what I write. But all I am writing is what experts are saying.

When you say "It's stopped to a trickle" in China that hasn't happened by the virus stopping itself.

It's happened because China closed itself down.

Barring one or two other places, that is simply not happening or going to happen. That means 6.5 billion people are exposed to this. .
Do the maths. 50% infection rate and 1% death rate.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #500 on March 14, 2020, 06:20:58 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Adam.
But it is NOT a couple of weeks.

It takes 6-8 weeks at least to eradicate it in your own country. Then you need to prevent it coming back in again from outside, by the most Draconian border controls. It is not going to happen here. We are not set up to do it.

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #501 on March 14, 2020, 06:30:44 pm by adamtherover »
And that's my point, italy is in lock down,  and their cases are currently at 16% gain over the last 24hrs, many probably infected before lock down.  The spread has effectively been halted.. are we saying that many countries no matter how bad it gets will.just permit it to run its course, even after seeing how other countries with early high rates dealt with it?  And even italy as a hot spot, is a 1 in 300 infected rate.  No one can predict how the worlds governments will react,  are we saying that bojo is ignoring the advice of his health advisers,  or are they happy that full lockdown isnt needed?

adamtherover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #502 on March 14, 2020, 06:33:17 pm by adamtherover »
Adam.
But it is NOT a couple of weeks.

It takes 6-8 weeks at least to eradicate it in your own country. Then you need to prevent it coming back in again from outside, by the most Draconian border controls. It is not going to happen here. We are not set up to do it.
WELL DONT WRITE IN A FEW WEEKS THEN!!!!!!  You saw what I stated "and I quote"  YOUR WORDS!!!

and is there really any need to shout?

ravenrover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #503 on March 14, 2020, 06:59:28 pm by ravenrover »
BST can I ask you a simple question , do you believe the figures coming out of China?

rich1471

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #504 on March 14, 2020, 07:10:29 pm by rich1471 »
French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has ordered the closure of all non-essential public locations from midnight (23:00 GMT Saturday) in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The measure applies to restaurants, cafes, cinemas and discos, as well as non-essential businesses.

Mr Philippe also called on French people to reduce their travel, especially between towns.

France reported a sharp rise in cases on Saturday, from 3,661 to 4,499.

It recorded 12 more deaths, bringing the toll to 79. from the bbc

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #505 on March 14, 2020, 07:11:39 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Raven.

I'm not convinced to be honest. It looks too good to be true.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #506 on March 14, 2020, 07:13:06 pm by wilts rover »
If the government want to do something that will have a major impact on people's working lives especially those just about surviving which is significant then I suggest they raise the statutory sick pay entitlement to the level of the minimum wage .

This should be implemented straight away and remain as long as the virus remains an official pandemic .

Over to you Boris .

I think you have just highlighted here why there will not be a coalition government - the Labour Party, TUC & unions will be asking for measures to help the public and their members (especially NHS & care staff) whilst Johnson has made clear with the budget what his policy is. And it ain't sourcing extra ICU beds, ventilators, PPE equipment for GP's & care staff or a sick pay incentive for the gig economy workers.

I believe the Australian government have given a lump sum incentive to every Australian worker (is this correct Sydney)?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #507 on March 14, 2020, 07:29:26 pm by River Don »
The Chinese figures have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

They have changed how they measure the virus multiple times, the virus still seems to be holding back industry, when the Chinese claim things are getting back to normal.

Better to look at South Korea and Italy to get a less opaque view of how things really progress.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #508 on March 14, 2020, 07:41:12 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Adam

1) I'm not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Italy has had a 19.8% increase today. It had a 16.9% increase on Friday and a 21% increase on Thursday. In what world is that an effective halting of the spread?

2) When I said "in a few weeks" I was talking about the time over which the peak of the epidemic will take, when it comes. It will be like nothing you can imagine, the way the numbers will rise.

3) Like I say, you CAN contain this. In theory. By closing down your country to a level that no one in Britain has ever experienced. Keeping that closedown for 6-8 weeks. And then isolating your country to the outside world for 18 months until there is a vaccine.

You think ANY country is going to be able to do that? China, apparently, has just done the easy and low cost bit of that. If they let down their guard once over keeping out infections from the outside world all that effort will be wasted.

And if you CAN do that, what is the economic cost? It will run into many tens of % of GDP. And modern democracies are simply not designed to withstand that sort of shock.

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #509 on March 14, 2020, 07:43:24 pm by River Don »
Slightly off topic but related. It occurred to me seeing the news that Jet2 turned some of their flights to Spain around, very soon we are going to see an almost complete grounding of the airline industry.

That should give us some interesting data in relation to the concept of global dimming and perhaps reveal if the climate crisis is actually more advanced than we realise.

 

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