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Author Topic: Coronavirus  (Read 861017 times)

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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #540 on March 14, 2020, 10:15:03 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.



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BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #541 on March 14, 2020, 10:18:25 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
SS.

I explained why I'm sceptical (not, not believing) earlier. I'm not writing it again. And I'm increasingly fed up with folk reading what I write and accusing me of saying things I've not said. It's a common courtesy to read what people say and stop and think about it before diving in to hold them to task.

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #542 on March 14, 2020, 10:23:47 pm by DonnyOsmond »
China have been praised by WHO.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #543 on March 14, 2020, 10:28:02 pm by BillyStubbsTears »
DO.
In which case I'll be happy to withdraw my scepticism.

I remain sceptical that they will be able to keep the virus out of the country for the 12-18 months it will take to develop a virus, without huge economic costs to them and the world.

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #544 on March 14, 2020, 10:38:23 pm by tyke1962 »
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.

Billy the Thatcher government never said they were going to smash the trade unions they just did .

The Labour Party , tell me if im wrong that they would respect the result of the referendum result in their manifesto , they didn't .

If you want to hide from debate and not respond to my opinions then that just endorses my own feelings about the Labour Party of today .

The truth of elections has you in denial .

Very sad state of affairs .







DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #545 on March 14, 2020, 10:40:42 pm by DonnyOsmond »
Tyke.

I don't change my views because of election results.

If I did that, I'd have wanted the Govt to smash the trade unions in the 1980s.

So that's a daft thing to say.

What I DO do is change my mind when facts change, or I come across a compelling analysis. I've heard neither from the Leave side.

And the fact that you once again entirely miss the point of my last post and go off on yet another non-sequitur is just another reason why discussing stuff with you is tiresome and pointless. This will be my last response to you.

Billy the Thatcher government never said they were going to smash the trade unions they just did .

The Labour Party , tell me if im wrong that they would respect the result of the referendum result in their manifesto , they didn't .

If you want to hide from debate and not respond to my opinions then that just endorses my own feelings about the Labour Party of today .

The truth of elections has you in denial .

Very sad state of affairs .








This isn't about the coronavirus.

Bristol Red Rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #546 on March 14, 2020, 10:42:33 pm by Bristol Red Rover »
DO.
In which case I'll be happy to withdraw my scepticism.

I remain sceptical that they will be able to keep the virus out of the country for the 12-18 months it will take to develop a virus, without huge economic costs to them and the world.

I think impossible rather than sceptical doubt. I'm aghast at what they are thinking unless it's simply a huge brake being applied to a runaway train which still has to get to the bottom of the mountain. It could be they're still all so focused on brake mode they forgot to look out and see how high up the track they still are and realise they have to ease off on that braking a bit to allow the train to gently roll down, or else spend the rest of their lives up there.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 10:45:25 pm by Bristol Red Rover »

tyke1962

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #547 on March 14, 2020, 10:53:37 pm by tyke1962 »
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .


drfcdrfc

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #548 on March 14, 2020, 11:32:05 pm by drfcdrfc »
Tyke.

Your final paragraph is precisely the reason it is utterly pointless discussing with you.

If you decide that no argument, no fact, no new development would ever change your mind, then discussing anything is pointless.

Good luck.

Billy its actually the other way around , your pro EU soundbites were rejected by the referendum and the last GE .



Why are you so insistent on making this a political thing when it has been made very very clear that it's not?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #549 on March 14, 2020, 11:41:26 pm by River Don »
I don't mind admitting, I'm getting a bad feeling about all this. It's not just the virus and the possible death toll. It's the financial implications.

Look where we are. We've had an insipid global recovery for the last decade, there is so much debt floating around. The central banks now have only limited room for manoeuvre. Then look at what this virus is imposing on us. how long has China been in lockdown now 3 months or more?

And now other nations are being forced to follow suit France and Spain look to be heading into lockdown this week. The prospect of a sixteen week closure of UK schools. Minimum.

Tourism is already on its knees, it's going to be closely followed by the restaurants and retail (bar food shopping). It's enormous. I will be surprised if the markets don't go into free fall again next week. Then the defaults will start and once again the banks will begin to freeze.

And for the average family who have mortgages and loans and the prospect of redundancy looming? And this isn't just a financial muddle, it's a real world physical dilemma the banks can't just begin to to deal with.

I honestly don't think we have ever faced a crisis on the scale of this before.

Is anyone still saying its just the flu?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #550 on March 15, 2020, 12:00:24 am by River Don »
President Trump has just tested negative for the virus.

We just can't seem to get any kind of a lucky break.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #551 on March 15, 2020, 12:05:03 am by IDM »
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .



For f**ks same stop making this political.!!

It matters not which party is in government..  I find their approach alarming.

I find it very alarming to read the views of the medical advisor that outdoor social gatherings pose no extra risk, whilst ignoring the fact that people will be in very close proximity on public transport getting there and in the concourses.

Also that the uk authorities seem to think they can deal with this virus a whole lot differently than the rest of the world, with no obvious reason to do so..

Go figure..

albie

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #552 on March 15, 2020, 12:11:20 am by albie »
BST,

Yes, it is reported cases not ACTUAL.
The point being that you will never know the actual figure, only an estimate based on deaths and assumptions about non-declared recoveries.

You say the modelling is based upon "well validated epidemic models".

Any models can only be referenced to data from other flu-like contagion, I am unaware of any modelled specifically to Covid 19. Do you know of any such?

It is perfectly possible that Covid-19 will follow a different path.

Your last paragraph says "it will take 4 weeks for us to get from our actual current number of cases (about 10,000) to the number of real cases that Italy currently has (probably about 150,000)".
Both of those figures are estimates, and there is no indication in the confidence of the forecasts.
 
The issue is that there are wide error bars on the calculation, such that it is very difficult to target a specific point of intervention.

Yet the UK strategy hinges upon being able to do just that.......unless you think that the UK is holding back precisely to allow infection to spread in pursuit of early "herd immunity".

All of which is why some in the scientific community are asking for the modelling and its data inputs to be open, not inside a "black box".

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #553 on March 15, 2020, 12:23:30 am by IDM »
Also disturbing is that the uk is not testing people who self isolate with mild  symptoms.

So does it matter what model is used to estimate spread etc, and when and how to intervene, if there is no realistic metric for testing sufficient people.?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 12:31:57 am by IDM »

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #554 on March 15, 2020, 12:25:48 am by BillyStubbsTears »
Albie.

I accept all that. For clarification, I meant models of growth which had been validated against retrospectively known trends from previous epidemics. The epidemiologists will be testing those models against the incoming deaths data from C-19 and tweaking the models, to give updates in a dynamic scenario. At least I assume they would be. That's certainly what people in my field would be doing in a similar scenario.

If you are not prepared to trust that modelling, then what? Alternative?

That's not a flippant comment. It is a hard question. Do we lock down now and isolate outselves from the rest of the world for 18 months? Take an economic hit of north of 20% of GDP (with all the consequences for our future ability to protect people)?

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #555 on March 15, 2020, 12:41:16 am by River Don »
India now has more than 80 known cases... Just imagine how that is going to pan out.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #556 on March 15, 2020, 02:50:38 am by SydneyRover »
Billy

Hiding from debate isn't going to unite us and topple  tory government anytime soon .

We have to settle this at some stage , it clearly isn't going away .

On this board the problems of the current Labour Party are all clear to see even at the level we as contributors are .



For f**ks same stop making this political.!!

It matters not which party is in government..  I find their approach alarming.

I find it very alarming to read the views of the medical advisor that outdoor social gatherings pose no extra risk, whilst ignoring the fact that people will be in very close proximity on public transport getting there and in the concourses.

Also that the uk authorities seem to think they can deal with this virus a whole lot differently than the rest of the world, with no obvious reason to do so..

Go figure..

Unfortunately brexit is all consuming:

Brexit means coronavirus vaccine will be slower to reach the UK

The UK will leave the European Medicines Agency (EMA), the body responsible for the scientific evaluation, supervision and safety monitoring of medicines, at the end of the transition period on 30 December. This means it will no longer be part of the EU’s regulatory regime, which allows for “accelerated assessment” of products developed by drugs companies during a pandemic.

The UK has already withdrawn from the EU’s emergency bulk-buying mechanism for vaccines and medicines, under which member states strike collective agreements with pharmaceutical companies, which speeds up their access to the latest products during a crisis.

The academics write: “For all these reasons ... the UK is likely to have to join the queue for access with other countries outside the EU, and to pay more than it would otherwise as an EU member state.

“Looking further ahead, this problem will not be limited to emergencies and the UK can expect slower and more limited access to medicines, especially those for rare conditions or those used to treat children, where the market is small.”

They argue that the UK could still avoid the worst by agreeing to align fully with the EMA’s regulations from outside the EU. But they say Johnson has so far indicated that his team have no intention of doing so and do not want to operate as “rule takers”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #557 on March 15, 2020, 08:37:01 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
I find it a little sad that we are being so divisive again on this, did we not learn anything from 2019.  Twitter has #boristhebutcher and #torygenocide trending. At this time we should rightly question the government policy given it is different to others, but I think we should tread carefully or theres more risk from the potential social unrest (a bit like in the drama cobra recently on sky).

I do think the government has to be transparent and provide daily updates with reasoning behind their approach. 

I actually fear a potential quarantine, the effects on my mental health on that do worry me probably more than the virus (and I have underlying issues too).

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #558 on March 15, 2020, 09:21:27 am by River Don »
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #559 on March 15, 2020, 09:24:01 am by BillyStubbsTears »
BFYP.

Yes. And it also has this little Kitson doing his bit to heal the wounds. The little scrote who ran the youth wing of Vote Leave.

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1238853683955347456

Donnywolf

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #560 on March 15, 2020, 09:41:12 am by Donnywolf »
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

They should have got Grayling on the case. He could have bought 38 Million quids worth from a Supplier who dont have any and dont make any PRAT (him not me  ;) )

big fat yorkshire pudding

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #561 on March 15, 2020, 11:07:49 am by big fat yorkshire pudding »
BFYP.

Yes. And it also has this little Kitson doing his bit to heal the wounds. The little scrote who ran the youth wing of Vote Leave.

https://mobile.twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1238853683955347456

Yes absolutely ridiculous. 

BillyStubbsTears

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #562 on March 15, 2020, 11:37:41 am by BillyStubbsTears »
I am determined not to get into party politics during this crisis.

But that doesn't mean the Govt shouldn't be criticised.

They have just "announced" the single most revolutionary social policy since WWII.

They've announced that Govt policy is going to be for 70 years olds to stay in their houses and not go out AT ALL for 4 months.

You'd think that would be worthy of the PM speaking directly to the nation to explain the reasons behind this, the importance that people do it, and the steps that will be taken to protect the elderly.

Nope. They leaked it to Robert Peston late on a Saturday night to Tweet to the nation.

THIS is what I mean about us needing a coalition. This is not about politics as usual,where all that matters is controlling the news agenda. If there are Cabinet ministers who can't contribute anything more than an ability to control a herd of tame journalists, they need to be out NOW, and more able people from anywhere on the political spectrum brought in.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #563 on March 15, 2020, 12:20:39 pm by SydneyRover »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274


SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #564 on March 15, 2020, 12:45:44 pm by SydneyRover »
Hancock is asking manufacturers to switch to ventilators if they possibly can this morning...

That's for the desperately needed new ICU departments in hospitals.

After three months notice, he's making a desperate plea on the eve of calamity. That is pretty f**king desperate. Appalling.

They should have got Grayling on the case. He could have bought 38 Million quids worth from a Supplier who dont have any and dont make any PRAT (him not me  ;) )

Only those manufacturers that have ''clean room'' facilities and all the necessary assembly expertise would be able to do this. And then only if you can buy the parts.

IDM

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #565 on March 15, 2020, 12:46:23 pm by IDM »
Good news and bad news

Good news when I looked a couple of hours ago there wee no cases in Doncaster but now there are 2.

How many confirmed cases are in your area?
Enter a postcode, English council or Scottish NHS area to find out. Wales and Northern Ireland are not currently providing localised figures

There are 2 cases in Doncaster, out of a local population of 310,542
Figures last updated 09:00 GMT, 15 March

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274



The published figures cannot show the true extent of the virus as only hospitalised cases are getting tested.

SydneyRover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #566 on March 15, 2020, 12:57:07 pm by SydneyRover »
The Australian gov't is changing tack daily and has now written to GPs to tell them to only test certain patients as we are running low on test kits

''Australian stocks of coronavirus testing kits 'rapidly deteriorating', says chief medical officer
Exclusive: In letter to GPs Brendan Murphy says Covid-19 kits no longer available in some regions and there is ‘extreme pressure’ on protective equipment''

River Don

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #567 on March 15, 2020, 12:59:39 pm by River Don »
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I wonder if that might point to a mutation? Or whether it has just been unreported or what.

I picked this up from Zerohedge, so you know, treat it with some scepticism anyway but quite often they are first with news.

DonnyOsmond

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #568 on March 15, 2020, 01:15:53 pm by DonnyOsmond »
This doesn't look good.

Reports coming from France and the Netherlands, that half of those in critical care are under 60 years old.

I wonder if that might point to a mutation? Or whether it has just been unreported or what.

I picked this up from Zerohedge, so you know, treat it with some scepticism anyway but quite often they are first with news.

If your body reacts to the disease then you could end up in critical care whatever your age. It's just then you're more likely to recover the younger you are and also and unfortunately if it's a choice of doctors putting in time to a 33 year old or an 88 year old they'll choose the 33 year old.

wilts rover

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Re: Coronavirus
« Reply #569 on March 15, 2020, 01:37:37 pm by wilts rover »

 

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